Author Topic: People do not want to have children.  (Read 249 times)

Mackin USA

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People do not want to have children.
« on: July 02, 2018, 11:52:43 AM »
Confronted with this reality, the American and European leaderships have opted for re-population. If the pace of this process remains the same, before this century is over, 50% of the Western states will be replaced with people from the Third World.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-02/global-economy-running-out-its-most-valuable-resource
Mr. Mackin

ergophobe

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Re: People do not want to have children.
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2018, 06:20:23 PM »
Back in the 1980s, Emile Cioran said "In two hundred years, Notre Dame will be a mosque." It's possible it will take that long, only because of its cultural significance.

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Alas, migration is not about helping the poor there are just too many of them migration is about re-populating Europe. Migration is also about economics and finance.

I mentioned a couple weeks ago the California farmer who said that you produce is going to get picked by Mexicans, the only question is whether it's Mexicans working in the US or Mexicans working in Mexico. Similarly, the UFW placed ads in "anglo" papers offering jobs in the fields. They did not get a single person who actually worked a day in the fields.

As with any important issue, it's too complex to fit on a bumper sticker, no matter how much people might wish otherwise.

But the basic problem of an economic system (Yuval Harrari would say "religion") that is predicated on growth is something we will have to grapple with. Europe grappled with it to some extent during the Black Death. The economy contracted dramatically. Entire towns disappeared to never come back again. A famous seaside Mediterranean retreat in 1300 was not even visitable in 1500 because marshes and thus mosquitoes and thus malaria had reclaimed the land. All over fields went fallow, dikes broke and wetlands reasserted themselves.

But for the people who survived there was a wealth effect due to accumulating inheritances.

We could see something along those lines again. The trick is that ideally we will achieve it with a soft landing, rather than a catastrophe. I think that's the watchword of the next 100 years. Whether we are speaking of climate change, environmental degradation from pollution and overharvesting, economic dislocation from falling population, mass extinction of species, we've locked in most of those effects already. The key now is engineering a soft landing for youth of today and their children.

If you're over 70, you're probably in the clear. My dad is 89 and he says "Those are all your problems now. I'll be gone before any of that happens."
« Last Edit: July 02, 2018, 06:28:36 PM by ergophobe »

aaron

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Re: People do not want to have children.
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2018, 04:52:56 PM »
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But for the people who survived there was a wealth effect due to accumulating inheritances.
As much as the impact was due to accumulating inheritances, it was also due to the sudden shock rebalance between the supply and demand for labor vs the supply and demand of capital.

As long as labor supply vastly exceeds demand then most laborers have little negotiating power in terms of what they are paid & what they will end up paying for rent. Rentier classes can strip away whatever gains are made.

But if half the population suddenly dies off & the machinery must be maintained then wages increase for those who didn't die.

Japan has been seen as a market that has went nowhere for decades. But while they had little to no financial asset price inflation & little to no wage inflation they also had little to no living cost inflation. That model is superior to a "growth at all costs" model where financial assets are pumped by central bank interventions in markets, leading to rising living costs while wages lag behind.