Author Topic: PG&E shutdowns....  (Read 396 times)

rcjordan

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PG&E shutdowns....
« on: October 12, 2019, 02:34:44 PM »
....are going to cause a substantial jump in home generation tech.

ukgimp

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2019, 04:14:15 PM »
Good sector then.

littleman

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2019, 05:57:46 PM »
Maybe a good time to invest in solar rooftop companies?

rcjordan

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2019, 07:19:08 PM »
>good sector

It'll be ripe online, yes.

>solar

Musk's Powerwall 2 battery pack will be a top contender, I think. --Especially with Musk hyping it 24/7.  I've seen a few stories like this:

California blackouts: Keeping the lights on with solar energy
https://www.fastcompany.com/90415303/to-keep-the-lights-on-during-californias-blackouts-people-are-using-solar-power
 

rcjordan

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2019, 07:52:22 PM »
‘This Did Not Go Well’: Inside PG&E’s Blackout Control Room - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/pge-california-outage.html

littleman

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2019, 09:34:07 PM »

rcjordan

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2019, 10:02:35 PM »
hhh. good one.

ergophobe

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2019, 03:29:23 AM »
Basically, we are moving to a society in California where those who can afford it install backup power (generators, batteries), whole house water purifiers and, for the very wealthy, hire their own firefighters and security. And those who can't afford it, are stuck with what they can afford, now that the wealthy bit by bit opt out of the public system.

Personally, I'm not wealthy enough to hire my own firefighters and polices, but we have been giving a lot of thought to the backup power. Of course, it has gotten harder to do - wait times are long for a lot of the equipment. The Powerwall is a joke - one electrician told me his customer paid the deposit two years ago and is still waiting for delivery. Now it's probably even longer.

Brad

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2019, 10:31:58 AM »
Ergo, do you foresee the non-wealthy abandoning the remote areas of Cal and either migrating to the cities or elsewhere?  I'm talking about a slow process, not rebuilding after fires or mudslides.

ergophobe

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Re: PG&E shutdowns....
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2019, 04:16:44 AM »
There are two variables that jump to mind.

1. Do people have the means. I feel like there is more and more conversation about getting out among people who can afford to get out.

2. Distortions in the market. As long as insurance is underpriced relative to risk in flood and fire zones, people will continue to rebuild. The situation with fire insurance is not completely insane like it is with flood/hurricane insurance. There's no subsidy YET. But as insurance companies start pricing in the current level of risk and policies get canceled, that is going to push lower income people out of the market.

The retired couple up the street got canceled by State Farm with a policy that was under $2000/year and had to replace it with a policy that is $7900/year (and this is for $500K home value). Bob told me they are planning to get the house ready and put it on the market.

So on the one hand, people with means can afford to move. On the other hand, people of means can afford to stay.

I think we'll also see more and more people go uninsured because they don't have $7000 or $8000 per year to insure their home. So when their homes burn down, there will be no more funds to replace them.

Eventually, I think people will get real about what it means to live in these areas. I heard an interview last year with a wildfire expert who pointed out that it was not all that long ago that entire cities would burn to the ground: Chicago, 1871; San Fran in 1851 and again in 1906; London 1666. It's estimated 90% of homes burned in the SF fire of 1906 following the earthquake.

What changed were building codes more than anything. More fire resistant buildings and landscapes explain why cities do not burn to the ground anymore.

So he was saying that if people want to live in the forest, they're going to have to get real about the risks and about how to mitigate those risks and that is going to take some serious code updates. A few years ago, PG&E provided us with FREE money to cut any tree that would impinge on a PG&E easement. We have a neighbor with a second home who lives in a large city. He said "All I ahve around me at home is concrete. I built this house here for the trees. I would rather see the neighborhood burn down than cut those trees" (which were in violation of CA fire code, but there are no teeth to back up that code).

When people find they can't get insurance, we'll either see some code reform or emigration. Being Americans and being poor at forethought, it might take many people without insurance losing their homes before that happens though.

The resistance to hardening one's house against fire is still stunning