Author Topic: We open, people die; we close, people die.  (Read 1064 times)

rcjordan

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We open, people die; we close, people die.
« on: February 06, 2021, 09:18:53 PM »
'We open, people die; we close, people die.'
https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/we-open-people-die-we-close-people-die-covid-surge-leaves-lebanon-no-good-options-1.661305

Without joining the "Laser Beams From Space' crowd, I'm starting to wonder whether general lockdowns have been very effective.  Deep blue California & New York haven't had much better luck than open-for-business Florida.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 08:02:38 PM by rcjordan »

littleman

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Re: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2021, 10:18:47 PM »
We've definitely have had our share of non-compliance and problems in California.

>Deep blue

This is also the land of Devin Nunes.  California is blue the same way Texas is red, meaning there is a sizable percentage of the population that disagrees with the prevailing government.  The big question is: How do you manage people when near 50% of the population doesn't want to comply?
« Last Edit: February 06, 2021, 10:20:20 PM by littleman »

buckworks

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Re: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2021, 11:27:23 PM »
>> doesn't want to comply

I think a lot of the non-compliance is rooted in sloppy logic and misinformation ... which spread even faster than the virus. People sincerely believe  that they know better than the authorities.

I'm not one to say there's never a time to be a rebel, but fer cryin' out loud, the thing you're rebelling about should actually be true!

ergophobe

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Re: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2021, 06:16:27 PM »
>Deep blue

California had more Trump voters in 2020 than Texas did. Texas had more Biden voters than New York.
https://xkcd.com/2399/

> Devin Nunes

He's actually almost moderate compared to my representative, Tom McClintock or our local supervisor who in public comments has declared Fauci "an enemy of the people," and daily frequents one of the restaurants/bars in town that stays open in violation of state and county orders and where nobody wears a mask.

That said, I think across the spectrum, there is quite a bit of Covid fatigue and, to the main point, about general lockdowns, I think it's just to ask of a lot of people. For some it's easy because of our financial situations, the nature of our work, the nature of our marriage/family life, the nature of our personalities. But for single extroverts or people in unhappy families who have to leave the house in order to work to pay the bills, the lockdown is brutal.

And we have local landmark businesses that have folded and more on the verge of it. If this (by which I mean not just Covid, but in our case fires and windstorms and blizzards) goes on for another year, the community will be hollowed out.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2021, 06:27:31 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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rcjordan

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2021, 12:50:37 AM »
>Deep blue California & New York haven't had much better luck than open-for-business Florida.

Florida's Pandemic Response May Have Been Vindicated
https://www.newser.com/story/303709/floridas-covid-response-wins-grudging-praise.html

ergophobe

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2021, 04:59:26 AM »
Quote
One that is now being widely praised is his decision on March 14 of last year to bar visitors from long-term care facilities. In contrast to New York, he also stopped hospitals from transferring COVID patients back to care homes.

Well now... Cuomo's actions here will go down as one of the stupidest moves of the whole pandemic. It takes a lot to make Trump look good, but Cuomo has been trying really hard for the past year.

But it's clear that there's a lot we "knew" a year ago that, as it turns out, we didn't *know* (masks don't protect the wearer...). I'm not sure we'll ever have good answers to all the questions, but I bet we could have avoided many deaths and much economic dislocation if we just had had a clue at the outset.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2021, 05:08:09 AM by ergophobe »

littleman

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2021, 06:29:47 AM »
>masks don't protect the wearer

That one was particularly frustrating for me.  In the early stages they were discouraging mask wearing.  I remember my dad saying "...proved masks don't work".  It seems that there was plenty of early evidence from China that pointed to masks being part of the solution.

Brad

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2021, 10:24:12 AM »
> masks

We are still paying for that intentional fib.  Yeah, I understand they had good intentions trying to keep masks of any kind available for doctors and nurses working ICU's, but that lie has fed the anti-maskers and the death cult ever since.  They should never have lied, they just should have explained the need to the public.

When the health authorities reversed themselves, the most heroic action came from women (and some men) dusting off their sewing machines, sewing masks from patterns posted online, and giving them to frontline workers and the vulnerable.  They didn't wait for orders, they marched to the sound of the guns.

BTW, remember when Kurchner was using Federal authority to hijack private and state purchases of PPE allegedly, for redistribution?  Did any of that get redistributed, or is it moldering in some FEMA warehouse somewhere?

rcjordan

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2021, 01:44:51 PM »
>Without joining the "Laser Beams From Space' crowd, I'm starting to wonder whether general lockdowns have been very effective.



A year into the pandemic, Florida is booming and Republican Gov. DeSantis is taking credit

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/politics/ron-desantis-covid-florida/index.html

ergophobe

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2021, 05:48:45 PM »
I don't think looking at it as a binary is the way to think about it. In other words, I do not think there is a Yes/No answer to the question: "Are lockdowns effective?"

For a while we were looking at Manaus and saying, "that's how you get to herd immunity," and then cases surged again there and, with no lockdown, their death toll was astronomical. Meanwhile, Italy, with strict lockdowns, has done only a bit better than the UK and worse than the US, despite having weather more conducive to outdoor life in March than much of the US and all of the UK and obesity rates significantly below the OECD average.

Even more to the point, Italy had much stricter lockdowns than Sweden and a much higher death rate (roughly 1700 per million vs 1300 per million). I conclude from those two facts that lockdowns CAUSE Covid deaths. Clearly.

But if we look at the situation in Italy with people dying untreated in hospitals hallways and bodies stacking up like cordwood, we can say that deaths definitely cause lockdowns. I have no doubt that if the situation in Sweden ever got as dire as it was in Italy at the peak, they would have locked down. As far as I know, however, Sweden just never seemed to run out of hospital capacity. Why? I don't think we know, but I will say for certain that it is not because they stayed open. There are other factors.

Back in the US, talking to friends and families who work in hospitals in hotspots, there were points in the pandemic when the medical system was being overwhelmed, nurses and physicians were at the ends of their tethers, they had beds in tents in the parking lot and we were on the brink of true catastrophe at levels approaching Italy, but only in certain places. I think the lockdowns that helped alleviate those situations, which they seem, in fact, to have done, were necessary. In retrospect, they were probably too generalized, but did they work? I *think* they did and in a year or two, papers from epidemiologist and economists will probably tell us.

The question is, how much of those lockdown periods and places met those conditions? Early on we looked at lockdowns as a way to stop the pandemic. If we had wanted to do that, we would have needed lockdowns like the ones in Wuhan, which seem to have been quite effective and also what we consider gross violations of basic liberties that would not have been tolerated in most OECD nations.

But lockdowns to keep the medical system from collapsing are another thing. I think they have worked and that last, more targeted Regional Stay at Home Order in California seems to have taken the pressure off hospitals. I know one friend of mine said they had to watch a guy with a heart attack die in her hospital because they did not have a bed. She said that it would have been an easy save if not for Covid.

Then there is the calculation of how much a life is worth. The US government says a life is worth $10,000,000.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/07/17/870483369/your-life-is-worth-10-million-according-to-the-government

Abbreviated version of the above
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/23/843310123/how-government-agencies-determine-the-dollar-value-of-human-life

That's the number they use for enforcing health and safety rules. In other words, if a safety measure (tethers while working on scaffolding) costs $9,000,000 per life saved, the government says that rule should stand and if it costs $11,000,000 per life saved, it should go. It doesn't account for age. That's the theory, though things like car seat requirements and rear view cameras prove it's not evenly applied.

So when epidemiologist crunch all the numbers on the impacts of lockdowns and economists crunch all the numbers on economic loss, we'll know what was and wasn't "worth it."

But the answer will be complex, not simple. Looking at it as simple relationship (deaths :: lockdowns) and a binary (worked/didn't work) is great for polemics and terrible for understanding.

As is typical of all US politics these days, it is more important to score a win for your team than to figure out what good policy would look like. Were some lockdowns a foolish waste of human energy? I bet they were. Were some lockdowns essential to prevent catastrophic collapse? I bet they were. In a system where scoring for your team is less important than coming up with good policy, we would be focused on figuring out which were which rather than getting reelected or weathering a recall movement.

rcjordan

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Re: We open, people die; we close, people die.
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2021, 04:25:52 PM »
pushing it...

Florida Will Sue CDC If Cruises Can't Resume
https://www.traveloffpath.com/florida-will-sue-cdc-if-cruises-cant-resume/