Author Topic: That 100k projection...  (Read 3205 times)

rcjordan

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That 100k projection...
« on: April 04, 2020, 09:28:34 PM »
looking low.

"mid-April there could be a daily death toll of 2,200"

More than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. on a single day: Johns Hopkins
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/3/more-1000-covid-19-deaths-us-single-day-johns-hopk/

So, even if we stabilize at the 2200/day for a month, then start down the curve, we'll blow past 100k.

ergophobe

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2020, 01:42:21 AM »
Actually, the IHME projections are coming down a bit. They dropped the peak number of ICU beds needed in California from 1990 to 1866. They are now projecting 95,000 deaths.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

ergophobe

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2020, 01:43:51 AM »
Of course... a week ago they were projecting 81,000 deaths in the next four months. So that number is going the wrong direction

March 26:
"We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US."
http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2020, 09:07:21 PM »
"A closely watched University of Washington model is now projecting about 60,000 deaths in the U.S. "

Fauci: 'Looks like' US deaths will be lower than original projection | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/491779-fauci-looks-like-us-deaths-will-be-lower-than-original-projection

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2020, 09:48:22 PM »
I just think there are too many social variables to project accurately given the distance we have between now and a vaccine. 

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2020, 09:51:55 PM »
> social variables

Agreed. But I think the official (under-counted) total provides a crude gauge. 

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2020, 04:03:05 PM »
Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-the-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-will-hit-50000-by-the-end-of-april/

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2020, 07:49:25 PM »
>> social variables


ergophobe

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2020, 08:10:38 PM »
>> social variables

Words fail me... I wonder if historians will eventually look back and see Covid as the final straw that put the United States on the path to becoming multiple separate countries.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 08:12:47 PM by ergophobe »

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2020, 08:16:03 PM »
>Words fail me...

I know. MAGA is becoming a death cult.

Brad

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2020, 09:19:40 PM »
>death cult

I saw that yesterday somewhere, saying some GOP members were part of "a death cult that worships money."  The description stuck with me.

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2020, 09:40:21 PM »
We're going for the over-wash.

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #12 on: April 17, 2020, 10:10:58 PM »
I'm starting to see very large gaps in the daily death totals depending on sources.  I've seen as high as 6k and as low as ~2.3k for yesterday.  Apparently some stats are starting to use probable CV19 deaths while others are only using confirmed cv19 infected deaths.

Added: for USA data
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 10:41:38 PM by littleman »

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2020, 10:27:06 PM »
>gaps

Been happening for a bit now.  Some news sources only update once per day.  Some are making their own count compiled from multiple gov sources.  I pick a couple and compare them once a day.  They never seem to be quite as high as current headlines are touting, though.

+

mine:

https://www.newsbreak.com/embed/covid-card?global_stat=1&usa_stat=1&us_map=1

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/409af567637846e3b5d4182fcd779bea

++
The newsbreak and NYT totals usually stay reasonably close together, but are still 'off' by a thousand or more.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 10:32:01 PM by rcjordan »

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2020, 05:25:46 PM »
U.S. likely to see 50,000 COVID-19 deaths by weekend