Author Topic: That 100k projection...  (Read 5802 times)

buckworks

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2020, 05:44:49 PM »
>> by weekend

By the end of today, I'd bet.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2020, 06:28:26 PM »

Rupert

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2020, 04:41:27 AM »
Newsbreak says you are already there.  What are they counting differently?
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rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #18 on: April 25, 2020, 11:12:57 PM »
>Washington model is now projecting about 60,000 deaths in the U.S.

Well, unless Kenneth Copeland gets better at blowing to destroy the novel coronavirus, we're going to blow by that reduced projection.


Here ya go, Ergo, enjoy!!

Kenneth Copeland blows the ‘wind of God’ from his mouth onto the coronavirus: ‘It’s destroyed forever’

https://deadstate.org/kenneth-copeland-blows-the-wind-of-god-from-his-mouth-into-the-coronavirus-its-destroyed-forever/

buckworks

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2020, 12:18:16 AM »
>> unless Kenneth Copeland gets better

This video by Justin Peters Ministries was shared by one of my FB friends. It's a long watch, but he takes a good run at debunking some false prophets, Kenneth Copeland among them.

The Modern Prophets and Faith Healers Utterly Destroyed by COVID 19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajU5Yc-_UCY

ergophobe

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2020, 02:42:16 AM »
My favorite pastor.

It reminds me of the old story... A man is sitting in his home and the sheriff comes by and says, "The waters are rising. You better evacuate."

The man says, "I'm not worried, God will save me."

The next day water is flowing through the first floor and he's up looking out the of the second floor when the fire department comes by in a boat and says he better hop in. "I'm not worried," he says, "God will save me."

The next day he is on the roof and the National Guard comes by in a helicopter and says, "You better hop in, things are going to get really bad tonight."

"I'm not worried, God will save me."

That night, the waters rise and the the man dies in the flood. When he finally meets his maker, he says, "God, I had so much faith, why didn't you save me?"

"I sent you a car, a boat and helicopter. What more did you want me to do?" God replied.

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2020, 03:24:01 AM »
>What more did you want me to do?" God replied.

"Trust in God but tie your camel", its Islamic.  As persuasive ammunition I've searched for an equivalent Christian quote but could not find one.   I used a variant on Ergo's old story to try to convince my step-mother to stop going on her daily walks to the store before the lockdown.

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2020, 03:25:31 AM »
Now 74,000

Model used to project impact of COVID-19 projects higher death toll in the US
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/coronavirus/model-used-to-project-impact-of-covid-19-projects-higher-death-toll-in-the-us

Rupert

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #23 on: April 28, 2020, 06:14:42 AM »
Not a surprise to anyone here.

A sad story had some interesting facts:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52451094

Quote
New York accounts for 17,500 out of America's coronavirus 56,000 deaths.
And then:
Quote
On Monday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said random antibody tests indicated that a quarter of New York City (24.7%) - America's most populous city with 8.3 million people - had been infected with coronavirus.

So assuming that is all correct (no idea if nursing homes are inc etc?) And Everyone got it:

17,500 *100/24.7 = 70,850 in 8,200,000 = 0.86%.

I think the likelihood is the number of deaths are low, and that % comes out at 1% death rate.

I was trying to find the Italian study of a small part of Lombardi that said the same. I seem to remember it was 1% of about 15,000 people in a small town.

It puts the UK at a potential 660,000 and the USA 3.28 million.
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littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #24 on: April 29, 2020, 10:18:51 PM »
With the latest figures of 61k deaths and a 1% fatality rate* in the USA that would mean over 6 million cases in the USA back in late-March.  Clearly the IHME estimates are useless.

*Our fatality rate may be higher than the rest of the world though.

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #25 on: April 30, 2020, 11:04:14 PM »
U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Staying Below Six Figures is 'Optimistic,' Warns Nate Silver as Over 60,000 Americans Dead
https://www.newsweek.com/us-coronavirus-death-toll-projections-nate-silver-1501182

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #26 on: May 05, 2020, 12:50:27 PM »
Coronavirus model from IHME doubles projected US deaths to 134,000 as social distancing fades - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/health-coronavirus-model-doubles-deaths/index.html

littleman

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #27 on: May 05, 2020, 09:33:01 PM »
Still probably overly optimistic; viral hygiene is getting more politicized in recent days. I've been reading reports of people getting harassed for wearing facemasks. 

rcjordan

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2020, 01:34:03 PM »

Rumbas

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Re: That 100k projection...
« Reply #29 on: July 19, 2020, 02:45:07 PM »
Looking a the progression in the US from Europe it seems like a HUGE sh## show?

We are many that are completely baffled as to how the US is handling the pandemic and can't believe the stuff coming out about anti-masks and people just totally ignorant. It seems VERY far away from us ever going to the US again. I would be pretty scared to be caught up in Covid stuff, blm, elections and just sheer crazyness on a level I've never seen before.

What are your thoughts on the situation?