The Core
Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on April 04, 2020, 09:28:34 PM
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looking low.
"mid-April there could be a daily death toll of 2,200"
More than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. on a single day: Johns Hopkins
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/3/more-1000-covid-19-deaths-us-single-day-johns-hopk/
So, even if we stabilize at the 2200/day for a month, then start down the curve, we'll blow past 100k.
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Actually, the IHME projections are coming down a bit. They dropped the peak number of ICU beds needed in California from 1990 to 1866. They are now projecting 95,000 deaths.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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Of course... a week ago they were projecting 81,000 deaths in the next four months. So that number is going the wrong direction
March 26:
"We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US."
http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
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"A closely watched University of Washington model is now projecting about 60,000 deaths in the U.S. "
Fauci: 'Looks like' US deaths will be lower than original projection | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/491779-fauci-looks-like-us-deaths-will-be-lower-than-original-projection
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I just think there are too many social variables to project accurately given the distance we have between now and a vaccine.
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> social variables
Agreed. But I think the official (under-counted) total provides a crude gauge.
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Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April | FiveThirtyEight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-the-u-s-covid-19-death-toll-will-hit-50000-by-the-end-of-april/
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>> social variables
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>> social variables
Words fail me... I wonder if historians will eventually look back and see Covid as the final straw that put the United States on the path to becoming multiple separate countries.
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>Words fail me...
I know. MAGA is becoming a death cult.
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>death cult
I saw that yesterday somewhere, saying some GOP members were part of "a death cult that worships money." The description stuck with me.
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We're going for the over-wash.
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I'm starting to see very large gaps in the daily death totals depending on sources. I've seen as high as 6k and as low as ~2.3k for yesterday. Apparently some stats are starting to use probable CV19 deaths while others are only using confirmed cv19 infected deaths.
Added: for USA data
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>gaps
Been happening for a bit now. Some news sources only update once per day. Some are making their own count compiled from multiple gov sources. I pick a couple and compare them once a day. They never seem to be quite as high as current headlines are touting, though.
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mine:
https://www.newsbreak.com/embed/covid-card?global_stat=1&usa_stat=1&us_map=1
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/409af567637846e3b5d4182fcd779bea
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The newsbreak and NYT totals usually stay reasonably close together, but are still 'off' by a thousand or more.
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U.S. likely to see 50,000 COVID-19 deaths by weekend
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>> by weekend
By the end of today, I'd bet.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Yeah, we might hit it today (https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en).
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Newsbreak says you are already there. What are they counting differently?
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>Washington model is now projecting about 60,000 deaths in the U.S.
Well, unless Kenneth Copeland gets better at blowing to destroy the novel coronavirus, we're going to blow by that reduced projection.
Here ya go, Ergo, enjoy!!
Kenneth Copeland blows the ‘wind of God’ from his mouth onto the coronavirus: ‘It’s destroyed forever’
https://deadstate.org/kenneth-copeland-blows-the-wind-of-god-from-his-mouth-into-the-coronavirus-its-destroyed-forever/
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>> unless Kenneth Copeland gets better
This video by Justin Peters Ministries was shared by one of my FB friends. It's a long watch, but he takes a good run at debunking some false prophets, Kenneth Copeland among them.
The Modern Prophets and Faith Healers Utterly Destroyed by COVID 19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajU5Yc-_UCY
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My favorite pastor.
It reminds me of the old story... A man is sitting in his home and the sheriff comes by and says, "The waters are rising. You better evacuate."
The man says, "I'm not worried, God will save me."
The next day water is flowing through the first floor and he's up looking out the of the second floor when the fire department comes by in a boat and says he better hop in. "I'm not worried," he says, "God will save me."
The next day he is on the roof and the National Guard comes by in a helicopter and says, "You better hop in, things are going to get really bad tonight."
"I'm not worried, God will save me."
That night, the waters rise and the the man dies in the flood. When he finally meets his maker, he says, "God, I had so much faith, why didn't you save me?"
"I sent you a car, a boat and helicopter. What more did you want me to do?" God replied.
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>What more did you want me to do?" God replied.
"Trust in God but tie your camel", its Islamic. As persuasive ammunition I've searched for an equivalent Christian quote but could not find one. I used a variant on Ergo's old story to try to convince my step-mother to stop going on her daily walks to the store before the lockdown.
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Now 74,000
Model used to project impact of COVID-19 projects higher death toll in the US
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/coronavirus/model-used-to-project-impact-of-covid-19-projects-higher-death-toll-in-the-us
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Not a surprise to anyone here.
A sad story had some interesting facts:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52451094
New York accounts for 17,500 out of America's coronavirus 56,000 deaths.
And then:
On Monday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said random antibody tests indicated that a quarter of New York City (24.7%) - America's most populous city with 8.3 million people - had been infected with coronavirus.
So assuming that is all correct (no idea if nursing homes are inc etc?) And Everyone got it:
17,500 *100/24.7 = 70,850 in 8,200,000 = 0.86%.
I think the likelihood is the number of deaths are low, and that % comes out at 1% death rate.
I was trying to find the Italian study of a small part of Lombardi that said the same. I seem to remember it was 1% of about 15,000 people in a small town.
It puts the UK at a potential 660,000 and the USA 3.28 million.
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With the latest figures of 61k deaths and a 1% fatality rate* in the USA that would mean over 6 million cases in the USA back in late-March. Clearly the IHME estimates are useless.
*Our fatality rate may be higher than the rest of the world though.
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U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Staying Below Six Figures is 'Optimistic,' Warns Nate Silver as Over 60,000 Americans Dead
https://www.newsweek.com/us-coronavirus-death-toll-projections-nate-silver-1501182
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Coronavirus model from IHME doubles projected US deaths to 134,000 as social distancing fades - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/health-coronavirus-model-doubles-deaths/index.html
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Still probably overly optimistic; viral hygiene is getting more politicized in recent days. I've been reading reports of people getting harassed for wearing facemasks.
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>probably overly optimistic
U.S. coronavirus deaths near 140,000 as outbreak worsens
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-casualties/u-s-coronavirus-deaths-surpass-140000-as-outbreak-worsens-idUSKCN24K022
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Looking a the progression in the US from Europe it seems like a HUGE sh## show?
We are many that are completely baffled as to how the US is handling the pandemic and can't believe the stuff coming out about anti-masks and people just totally ignorant. It seems VERY far away from us ever going to the US again. I would be pretty scared to be caught up in Covid stuff, blm, elections and just sheer crazyness on a level I've never seen before.
What are your thoughts on the situation?
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>thoughts
I think you're seeing it as it really is, though I'm not personally exposed to much of it here in my rural seclusion. The mask issue was a problem here in 1918, this time it has been whipped to a political/person freedom frenzy by both the right & left.
I can **almost** sympathize with the rush to reopen ...but not quite. Again, I'm somewhat distanced from that because Louise & I don't have to go to work. If I was -say- a restaurant owner I'm sure my viewpoint would be massively influenced by the prospect of my business going belly-up.
>restaurants (& travel)
While on restaurants, it is shocking what a large percentage of our jobs and economy used to revolve around NOT cooking at home.
>schools
Kids staying at home for weeks on end. I can't imagine how we haven't killed them all.
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One things about masks, is we were told specifically not to buy or attempt to acquire them so providers wouldn't run out. This was hammered out pretty hard in the early months. I think it set a precedent that wearing masks just wasn't important for the general public. At least they didn't outright lie to us like the UK gov.
The other whacked out stuff is being sensationalized in the media. We have had some minor protests here, but they were small and non-violent. I've not seen anything outside of large cities for rioting. It is more than it would be at a normal time, as lots of people have little work or recreation activities are limited.
Covid, BLM and elections all at once are making this super turbulent. I sure wouldn't visit right now.
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>freedom frenzy
Bingo. That's what we're "seeing". Sterotype Americans "you can't rule us" attitude that comes out in every news bit here. Fueled by Social media.
>restaurants
Yes, I would probably feel the same if I was affected and not being able to support my family. Damn lucky to work the internet and being able to work without too much hazzle.
>masks
Good point and similar here Dras. Most Danes kind of feel stupid wearing them and most of us don't.. yet. Remember we have almost no cases now and life seems somewhat normal, but I'm pretty sure you'll see everyone wearing them if we were asked to do so. Was in Berlin last week and almost everyone wore them and mandatory in any store, restaurant and public transport.
Hang in there guys and girls. I hope to see ya'll again some time.
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I have a lot of concerns and worries about the future of democracy in America, but I won't go there. To your questions.
>>ever going to the US again.
Coming here now seems like a terrible idea, but ever is a long time. You've come here before and things have been crazier than this before (see, "Perspective" below). I do have worries that we are on an inexorable slide, but that's probably unlikely and I am prone to worry about such things.
I think of it like passing through a cultural bottleneck. Inside the bottleneck, where we are now, the pressure is super high. On the other side, less so. The open question is how far into the bottleneck are we and what will the other side look like? Will we come out looking more like Denmark or Poland or something new altogether?
Covid: yes, total sh## show. Even without our president being anti-mask and anti-lockdown, there are a lot of people whipping up conspiracy theories who would be working triple time right now if Clinton were in office and passing a national mask law. I can't even imagine.
Elections.
Yes, apparently that is the best we can do. Astounding for a country with the incredible creative and productive capacity of the USA, but here we are. Of all the things that worry me about what's happening right now, the one that most concerns me is something that would result in seriously questioning the legitimacy of the elections. If that happens, regardless of the winner, the result will be horrible. The country will explode. The recent riots will be nothing. I expect a lot of unrest regardless of who wins. If Trump loses, it will be the craziest transition in history. If Trump loses and tries to question the result, it could get really bad. If Trump wins, there will be mass demonstrations. I don't see an outcome without some madness in November. I would definitely not plan travel to the US during that period.
BLM.
Speaking personally, I had long vaguely meant to read Between the World and Me by Ta-Nahisi Coates. If not for the protests, I doubt I would ever have gotten around to it. But because of all this, I did and now, I wish everyone would read it. I think a lot of us who live complacently in overwhelmingly white areas and who have had the privilege of not thinking much about race have finally been forced to reflect a bit more deeply. For me, that's been a good thing. The protests in my area were peaceful affairs and the local sheriff was been exemplary from Day One.
There's an interesting interview with Ta-Nahisi Coates where he says he is more optimistic than he has been in a long time. His father, an activist in the 1970s, said he never dreamed that in his life he would see white people marching in large numbers in support of black people. There is a lot happening here that is positive if you look beyond all the media sensationalism and political rhetoric.
https://www.vox.com/2020/6/5/21279530/ta-nehisi-coates-ezra-klein-show-george-floyd-police-brutality-trump-biden
Riots.
Obviously that's not good. But again, I've been able to live far from the madding crowds and just pretty much not think about these issues. I never thought of that as a great privilege, but I see that differently now. I'm not sure I would have been forced to look at that without the unrest. Of course, I was not personally harmed in any way, so it's easy for me to say that.
Perspective.
Compare this to 1967 to 1970. No major national figures have been assassinated. The Army Math Research Center was not bombed. The troops that cleared Lafayette Square did not fire on the crowd and kill students like at Orangeburg, Jackson State and Kent State (you've probably only heard of Kent State, "Four dead in Ohio," because at Kent State the National Guard made the mistake of shooting *white* kids). At least as far as we know, the FBI is not actively blackmailing BLM leaders and trying to get them to commit suicide (a la MLK). The cities are burning, but nothing like during the Long Hot Summer.
A refresher course...
Orangeburg Massacre (28 students injured, three fatally when state police fire upon the crowd)
https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/orangeburg-massacre/
Jackson State killings (12 students injured, two fatally when police open fire)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_State_killings
Kent State shootings (13 shot, four fatally)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings
AMRC Bombing (building destroyed, one person killed... by "peace" activists)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterling_Hall_bombing
FBI attempting to blackmail MLK, possibly hoping he would commit suicide, but as a minimum leave the public stage
https://www.insider.com/fbi-martin-luther-king-report-tapes-orgies-suicide-2019-5
A bit out of the 1967-1970 time period, but on August 28, 1963, MLK gave the famous "I have a dream speech." Two days later, the FBI Chief of Domestic Intelligence, William Sullivan wrote (https://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/11/12/7204453/martin-luther-king-fbi-letter) a memo that said: "We must mark him now, if we have not done so before, as the most dangerous Negro of the future in this Nation from the standpoint of communism, the Negro and national security."
Long hot summer of 1967, major riots across the country with major sections of Newark and Detroit burned
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long,_hot_summer_of_1967
And some images (https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk023lJ2iO_up12aPwnv3aK2RePEO-w:1595298483856&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=long+hot+summer+1967&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi_n8P7pd3qAhVIRqwKHcnSBrAQiR56BAgJEBA&biw=1745&bih=855)
This, by the way, is where we get the phrase "When the looting starts, the shooting starts." Trump didn't coin that phrase. It was Miami police chief Walter E. Headley in 1967.
I hope we come out of this better, but Covid is the wrinkle that makes it all crazier.
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Ergo, thank you for this. Your perspectives are always nourishing food for thought.
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Thanks Tom, for putting things a little more into perspective. I'm pretty sure I will be back eventually and hopefully within a few years when things might have settled a bit.
Also, none of my friends and network are anywhere near what we are getting shown as being the typical Americans. It seems to far away from what I've seen and experienced with all you guys. I might have just gotten lucky and I maybe the demographic here is a long way from the crazy folks we're seeing on TV? I think so.
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I remember that era well:
Spock, Spock,
the baby doc,
leads a peace march
'round the block.
Around him everywhere you look,
are kids he messed-up with his book!
(Mad Magazine)
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FBI attempting to blackmail MLK, possibly hoping he would commit suicide, but as a minimum leave the public stage
you got me reading about the MLK assassination:)
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It seems to far away from what I've seen and experienced with all you guys. I might have just gotten lucky
Honestly, that's how I became a Francophile. What I experienced in France was so different from the stereotypes.
There is a lot to be ashamed of in America, but there is a lot of positive too. But to put it in perspective, in the media we are an anti-science, anti-vaxxer nation and some of that is deserved, but in a recent poll, 16% of Americans said they would refuse a Covid vaccine compared to 23% of Germans.
Also, as your great countryman Soren Kierkegaard wrote, "the crowd is untruth (https://oregonstate.edu/instruct/phl201/modules/Philosophers/Kierkegaard/kierkegaard_the_crowd_is_untruth.html)." In person, you experience Americans as individuals and most individuals are decent. It was one of the reasons Nazi hunters had so much trouble tracking down war criminals. Shorn of Naziism, they fit right in (which is scary)... and sort of undercutting my point. But I do think that headline news plays to stereotypes and the crowd and that distorts things.
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PS - that essay by Kierkegaard is essential reading for a moral life. It rocked my perspective as a teenager.
Buckworks in particular - if you haven't read it, I think you will like it. It's only slightly longer than one of my posts when I'm on a rant ;-)
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>Also, none of my friends and network are anywhere near what we are getting shown as being the typical Americans.
Mine either. What you are seeing in the media are not "typical" Americans. They're the few doing stupid sh## that the media magnifies and shovels out as the norm.
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>> "the crowd is untruth."
That essay is heavy going. I will need to read it several times.
The first time through the saying kept going through my head: "No snowflake in the avalanche feels responsible for what happens."
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150k
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CDC forecast predicts death toll could reach 200,000 by Labor Day
https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-updates-cdc-forecast-predicts-death-toll-200000/story?id=72367904
And that's our lyin', cheatin', politicizin' CDC, too!
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Yeah, the number will be quite a bit higher. We've been hitting an average of 1.2k/day and we're already at 171k right now according to worldmeter and most schools are going to start in the next couple of weeks.
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>lyin', cheatin', politicizin'
I forgot right-wing evangelizin'.
Weaselly bastards.
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At risk?!! Hell, I haven't trusted those weaselly bastards since April.
Health agencies’ credibility at risk after week of blunders
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/health-agencies-credibility-at-risk-after-week-of-blunders
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They seem to backtrack - daily.
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Backtracking is fine when it's due to getting better evidence. The problem is that they seem to be bowing to political pressure. The BBC show More or Less just had an episode on plasma therapy, for example, and let's say that the FDA change of heart does not seem to be motivated by better science.
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approaching 200k
But here's the thing... 315k by Thanksgiving. The trendline from now is not hockey-stick, but it is steep.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
NC is projected to be maybe even a little worse.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-carolina?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend
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By some counters we passed 200k a few days ago. Restrictions are easing across the country. NY city is opening up schools. California is about to open up gyms and movie theaters. The administration is urging states to drop their mask mandates. The flu season is about to start, which will add something to the mix. We're very likely to be closer to the "easing" curves now.
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re Rumbas >sh##-show
Emails Detail Effort to Silence C.D.C. and Question Its Science - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html
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And this
C.D.C. Testing Guidance Was Published Against Scientists’ Objections
A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agency’s website despite their serious objections, according to several people familiar with the matter as well as internal documents obtained by The New York Times.
Similarly, a document, arguing for “the importance of reopening schools,” was also dropped into the C.D.C. website by the Department of Health and Human Services in July and is sharply out of step with the C.D.C.’s usual neutral and scientific tone, the officials said.
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>>lyin', cheatin', politicizin'
>I forgot right-wing evangelizin'.
Inside the Fall of the CDC — ProPublica
https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-the-fall-of-the-cdc#1004665
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I've said this before, but I noticed early on as this happened that my search habits changed on Google. I used to search *for* .gov sites for accurate, unbiased info, and then I found myself *avoiding* .gov site for accurate, unbiased information.
That is a long term harm that will cost lives for years to come. I think of the old Warren Buffet saw, "A reputation takes twenty years to build and seconds to destroy."
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Can you tell me about Propublica ? I see they are funded by the Sandler foundation, but what are their political goals?
Just had to believe a report so against a Govt. Years of training has to taught me to believe most .gov science.
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Sandler Foundation - InfluenceWatch
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/sandler-foundation/
I rate Propublica as authoritative and left-of-center, about like The Guardian.
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Sandler Foundation - InfluenceWatch
https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/sandler-foundation/
Ok, thanks.
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I rate Propublica as authoritative and left-of-center, about like The Guardian.
I would second that, but unlike the Guardian, no ads and no attempt to cover all the news. So I would say perhaps more left than the Guardian in terms of topics covered, but perhaps less left in the coverage of those topics (or maybe more accurately, less polemical and more traditional in their presentation). Winner of two Murrow Awards this year. https://www.rtdna.org/content/2020_national_edward_r_murrow_award_winners
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Investigation launched into Trump’s 'political interference' in CDC and FDA's coronavirus work | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-cdc-fda-investigation-covid-19-b1160766.html
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Unlike the inspectors general, I don't think he can fire the GAO investigators.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/trump-cant-fire-at-least-one-government-watchdog-investigating-coronavirus
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PS - note the date on that article
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Now 400k dead in US.
>>lyin', cheatin', politicizin', right-wing evangelizin'.
Incoming CDC director: Trump administration has 'muzzled' scientists
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/19/bidens-incoming-cdc-director-says-trump-administration-has-muzzled-scientists.html