I should preface this by saying that I only watched the first minute (the two parades) and read Rupert's summary. So maybe, I'm just wrong, but...
10x exponential process which will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade.
I'm sorry, but I think this guy is an idiot. He's the same person who predicts a 90% decline in demand for meat and dairy by 2030. I did a lot of follow-up reading on trends and such on that one and sorry, but completely bonkers.
This is even more bonkers. Our carbon output is *rising* people. Demand for fossil fuels is still increasing. The average vehicle stays on the road for more than a decade. Every climate modeler will tell you that even if starting in 2020, we never sell another internal combustion engine ever again anywhere in the world, the latency effect from existing machinery still puts us in a very precarious position and still makes it hard to reach the 50% reduction targets by 2030. Granted, a 50% reduction might be a "collapse" from the perspective of stock price in Exxon, but a) it looks unlikely to happen and b) 50% is a far cry from "wiped off the market."
The idea that the fossil fuel market will simply disappear by 2030 is absurd. It's the worst kind of magical thinking.
He pulls out those same two photos of a single parade in New York City. Here's the thing about horses. You have to remember that 30 years after that second photo, the armies of the world still depended on horses. I recently read a book called something like "D-Day Through German Eyes." It was a series of interviews from the 1950s or 1960s of German soldiers who had fought in Normandy in 1944.
What's one thing that astounded them about the Allies?
No horses.
The soldiers who were taken prisoner and shuttled back behind the lines, kept looking for the horses and when they realized that the entire US Army was running on internal combustion engines, with no horses, they knew at that moment, they war was lost. It was still unimaginable for a German soldier in June of 1944 to imagine that a powerful army could be so powerful it wouldn't even need horses. That's 31 years *after* the second parade.
If anyone wants to take bets on this guy's predictions on fossil fuels or meat and dairy, I'll happily take those bets!
