Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: Mackin USA on October 24, 2019, 05:58:26 PM

Title: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: Mackin USA on October 24, 2019, 05:58:26 PM
+1%
+2%
+3%
+5%
+6%
+7%
MORE
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on October 24, 2019, 07:46:39 PM
+3% even though it should rightfully be down or at least flat.  We're good at denial.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: nffc on October 24, 2019, 08:26:16 PM
For the UK this is a good bellwether.

https://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/content/cws/jlp/financials/weekly-figures.html

Grim and in our sector very grim.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: littleman on October 24, 2019, 09:18:04 PM
I think people are going to spend a lot, but it is going to be fueled by debt.  Online shopping will be up 5% over last year; Brick and Mortar flat.  2020 is going to be down.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on October 24, 2019, 10:47:36 PM
>it is going to be fueled by debt.

Right! But aren't young families already nearly maxxed out?
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: littleman on October 24, 2019, 11:45:16 PM
>maxxed out?

You'd think.  I keep seeing over consumption everywhere, I hope it is just a Bay Area thing.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: Mackin USA on October 25, 2019, 10:25:39 AM
4.35%
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: Drastic on October 27, 2019, 05:07:20 PM
5%

If mark brings nuum to the US during same period, 6%.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: Mackin USA on October 30, 2019, 01:01:22 PM
Q3 GDP Beats Big As Consumer Spending Refuses To Drop
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: DrCool on October 30, 2019, 03:44:45 PM
There is one week less between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year which could put a bit of a damper on major growth. That said more and more retailers are shifting their Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales strategies to include the whole week of Thanksgiving and even stretching into the week before that.

I think overall growth will be in the 4% range.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on October 31, 2019, 06:49:55 PM
Consumer confidence declines in October for second straight month
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/consumer-confidence-declines-in-october-for-second-straight-month-103019.html
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: littleman on November 29, 2019, 10:35:05 PM
>it is going to be fueled by debt.


Quote
One in 3 Americans have or are planning to take out a personal loan to cover holiday shopping expenses, according to survey results Experian shared with Yahoo Money. That’s double from last year’s survey, the credit bureau said.

...

One in 6 consumers are still paying off last year’s holiday debt on their credit cards after racking up $745 in outstanding balances on average.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/holiday-shopping-loan-205703016.html
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on December 13, 2019, 03:06:22 PM
US retail sales rose less than expected 0.2% in November
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/us-retail-sales-november-2019.html

Debbie says that the big push for Same- or Next-day delivery by Amz and, now, Walmart, Target, etc. has allowed people to postpone purchases into December.  Black Friday in physical stores seems to be waning, too.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on December 14, 2019, 01:09:07 PM
<added>
Better article. Worth a read.

Lackluster US retail sales dim Q4 economic growth outlook - GulfToday
https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2019/12/14/lackluster-us-retail-sales-dim-q4-economic-growth-outlook
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: Mackin USA on December 24, 2019, 11:04:36 AM
$34.4 BILLION
BIGGEST SHOPPING DAY IN HISTORY!
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on December 24, 2019, 02:11:33 PM
A recent article said they're predicting a 4% increase in retail sales over last Nov & Dec.  But it wasn't clear if the overall sales total would be up that much as earlier sales might pull down the average.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: ergophobe on December 27, 2019, 01:48:56 AM
>>4%

Semi related: I read recently that on average, for every 1% in online sales, 8,000 retail stores close.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: buckworks on December 29, 2019, 05:37:19 PM
Retailers grapple with $100bn returns problem:

https://www.ft.com/content/5bafd9c0-235f-11ea-92da-f0c92e957a96
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on January 09, 2020, 03:04:43 PM
Kohl's shares tank on dismal holiday sales results, lowered outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/kohls-shares-tank-on-dismal-holiday-sales-results-lowered-outlook.html

Victoria Secret's parent stock falls on weak holiday sales
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/victoria-secrets-parent-stock-falls-on-weak-holiday-sales.html

Macy's store closings 2020 list: More than a dozen stores to shutter
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/01/07/macys-store-closings-2020-list-more-than-dozen-stores-shutter/2829013001/


Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: ergophobe on January 11, 2020, 04:05:44 PM
From Bucky's FT article.

Quote
Forrester estimates that half of online returns have little or no “salvage value”. “Anything less than original condition and the retailer has to sell it at a discount,” said Andy Mantis, chief business officer at analytics company 1010 data.

Some items are wasted completely. Each year in the US, Optoro estimates, about 5bn lbs of returned goods, equivalent to about 5,600 fully loaded 747 jets, goes to landfill.

I just heard a long interview with someone who wrote a book on this, having previously written a book on recycling. The waste is staggering

Of course, where there is pain, there is opportunity

https://blog.christianmoney.com/2019/02/buying-returned-merchandise-by-the-pallet-.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/entered-multi-million-dollar-business-behind-amazon-returns-223211498.html
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: littleman on January 11, 2020, 08:27:23 PM
I feel very fortunate that the stuff I sell is small (cheap to ship) and most of the time in good shape if returned.  I am trying to bend my head around making a business based on Liquidation.com purchases; thrift shops or flee-market type sales would work I suppose -- something with little overhead and no shipping.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: DrCool on January 13, 2020, 04:58:28 PM
>>I am trying to bend my head around making a business based on Liquidation.com purchases

Quite a few years back we bought a pallet of stuff just to see. Like most of the stories you will read some was good, some was bad. I think we were able to sell enough stuff to pay for it. And with more local selling options like FB Marketplace it might make it easier to move some of the stuff without paying shipping costs. I would say running a full time business to support your family would be a tough go but it could be great for a retiree who wants to putter around in his garage for a but and make a couple hundred bucks here and there or a stay at home mom who could spend an hour or two a day researching prices, posting stuff for sale, etc.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on January 15, 2020, 12:56:42 PM
Target tumbles after holiday sales fall short
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3531924-target-tumbles-after-holiday-sales-fall-short
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: ergophobe on January 15, 2020, 05:07:11 PM
Quote
Target (NYSE:TGT) reports comparable sales rose 1.4% for the two-month holiday period. Continued strength in multiple categories was offset by softer-than-expected performance in key holiday categories including electronics, toys and portions of home, which together account for approximately one-third of the company's holiday season sales.... Comparable sales are expected to be up 1.4% for the full quarter vs. +3.8% consensus estimate.

So sales increased by 1.4%, but it was not enough to satisfy investors who wanted 3.8%, so stocks tumble. Aside from irrational exuberance, why would anyone expect Target sales to increase 3.8%

My read on that is that holiday sales were fine, even very good, but the stock market is overheated, so anything short of fantastic results in stock prices tumbling.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on January 15, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
Costco: "Despite technical glitches over Thanksgiving, which experts estimated to have cost Costco as much as $11 million in online sales, the warehouse chain reported a 9% increase in same-store sales during the most recent holiday season."

Costco sales prove Amazon-proof as Target, Macy's struggle - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-sales-prove-amazon-proof-target-macys-struggle-2020-1
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: ergophobe on January 16, 2020, 03:09:59 AM
>> Costco

Limited inventory, good quality, great pricing. It's similar to the Trader Joe's model, which sells more per square foot than any grocery store in the country, far outpacing even Amazon/Whole Foods despite the rather different pricing at the latter.
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: rcjordan on January 17, 2020, 12:52:16 AM
‘Lackluster’ Holiday Sales Cast a Pall Over U.S. Retail Sector - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-14/-lackluster-holiday-sales-cast-a-pall-over-u-s-retail-sector
Title: Re: YOUR prediction for this years Holiday Sales - Total on&off line
Post by: Mackin USA on January 20, 2020, 02:45:42 PM
Holiday sales climb 4.1%, retail industry trade group says, on the higher end of estimates :-)

Online sales rose 14.6%, slightly topping an expected range of 11% to 14%.

https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-says-2019-holiday-sales-were-41-percent