I was talking to a buddy of mine, who was looking at buying some websites, and he was looking for tips on analyzing backlinks to make sure the traffic was actually from organic links, or was simply a paid link campaign that would evaporate soon after he bought them (or even worse: a dodgy SEO scheme that would eventually backfire.)
He then gave me a spreadsheet (that was pretty basic) and asked me ways to analyze things in excel, and if what he came up with 'made sense'. Since nothing here is confidential and it was free advice, I thought I would share what I said...
it makes sense, but it's not how I would frame the whole issue.
First, I'm a little biased against the use of math in analysis, unless we are talking broad range of averages, trends, etc. That is partially because I'm not good at it, but mainly because I visualize a website more like a bunch of independent feedback cycles, which comprise a dynamic 3d system. And each one of these cycles has its own math. And it's not linear. And its all connected. And complicated:)
I don't know how else to say it. It's so complex 'gut feeling' is really where you need to be, especially when you are just talking about one site. It's only when you have to deal with 10, 20, 50, 100 sites a day that you need to sort through, before you should start worrying about the stuff you are talking about, imo... but it's definitely not a bad idea to look at the tools the expired domain guys are using, if you haven't already... BUT, if we are at 'Step 4' in the process you described below, and you have access to Google Analytics, then all you have to do is start at the #1 referring site, and go all the way down and click sample them, the more the better. When you do, find the link on the page and see if it was meant for human consumption. Then look at that site. Do a little research on that site. Does it look like a link farm? Have a get your link listed here too link? If it looks legit, maybe it's a expired domain and they are milking it for link juice?
Then do the same with the 'link:' command in google and do the same checklist with the back links they show. Hypothetically you should see some kind of correlation between the two, and red flags should pop up that you should easily catch after you get the hang of it.
I just glanced at the images, but keep them in the back of your mind...
http://internetlab.cindoc.csic.es/cv/11/EU_Web_maps/EU_Web_maps.htm
...you can only judge magnitude of any site by looking at the big picture. So if you are interested in your incoming links, then you need to look at those incoming links', incoming links... if that makes sense.
Anyway, like I said, I'm biased:) I'm also an all or nothing type of person. So if you are going to go this way, I'd look at using existing tools and use the 3 best ones to get some numbers for your spreadsheet. Then crunch THOSE numbers until you get the hang of what you need and can throw out. I'm afraid right now you're looking for a compass when you really need a gyroscope. It's all about cross referencing 'everything' at the same time, not grabbing one component and looking at it in detail. Peel it like an onion.
Mixed metaphors aside, I think that is fair advice(?)
