Thanks for dropping in Chris!
>>finally arrived at the long ago predicted "big company" control of the web
I think this is the tough thing with declining usage of websites. A typical conversation at the hotel asks "How do we get more people to book directly?" and then everyone admits that we all just use the Expedia app when we travel. Unless you're a huge chain, you can't "evolve" to an app - nobody wants your stupid app. They want Expedia.
But the one thing we can do is this - Expedia takes at least 15% and keeps the customer info. So a 15% discount to those who book direct is better than break even.
But there's no question it's an uphill battle and that the shift from website to app is also a shift from free for all to Big Guy Wins.
On the other hand, when people say
Websites are Dead, I always say that, yes,
Print is Dead too. And like the Websites are Dead drumbeat we hear, it's both true and false. If you are a local newspaper or the Yellow Pages, it's true. If you're
Colson Whitehead, it's not true. If you're Tim Ferriss, it is both true and false (books bred podcasts which bred books).
But to say that Websites are Dead...
Eight-track is dead. Betamax is dead. Wax cylinder grammophones are dead. CDs were on life support, but I think they finally were allowed to unplug the machine recently.
But what about stone tablets? Nope. They aren't used much, but if you are in the business of putting writing on stone tablets, you're still probably doing okay. It's a niche market and I think it's finally disappearing as funeral practices change, but for now, some people still make a living writing on stone.
So yes, lots of what once lived on websites will live elsewhere in the future. Some types of website will disappear entirely. But for certain types of information and commerce, the web still rules. For example, when is the last time you used an app or Alexa to try to download the owner's manual for your old snowblower?
>> if they are filled with a 101 annoying intrusive situations
That! I just asked this the other day: Does the conversion rate on our email sends justify annoying people with all these email capture popups? Can I test conversion rate with and without them? I feel like I do when I'm enjoying a nice sunset chat with a neighbor... and getting bitten 50 times by mosquitos.
>>realize the Safari App is hardly used
Right, but you're looking at phone data. Of course when they're on the phone they're on apps. On the one hand, the phone has supplanted the computer in many cases. But a lot of the time on the phone is time that people simply weren't on the internet at all in the past - in the supermarket checkout, in the waiting room for the doctor, whatever.
I can't find any longitudinal data, but if I look here:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/people-are-spending-most-of-their-waking-hours-staring-at-screens-2018-08-01I see that TV still dominates in terms of screen time. "Internet on the computer" (by which they certainly mean websites, because like most people, the author doesn't understand the difference) is still about 40 minutes. Time on the phone is over 2 hours, but that includes time on the internet via the phone. So what's the total time "on the internet?" Let's be generous and say almost none of that phone time is "internet" time. Let's say we're at 45 minutes.
If I go back to 2009, time on web was about 49 minutes.
https://atelier.bnpparibas/en/smart-city/article/average-american-adult-spends-8-1-2-hours-day-staring-screensSo sure, when people are on their phones, they are mostly not on the web. But time spent on the web seems to be about flat since 2009.
And then, the other thing I would say, is that I think people have a "research on mobile, buy on desktop" pattern. I say that because I see mobile traffic increase and increase and desktop traffic decrease, but desktop conversion rates go up. So the number of transactions on the desktop continues to rise. I can't prove people are making their decision on mobile and then changing devices to buy, but it seems likely.
As I was explaining to my boss last week, unless you are *selling* ads, then traffic is a *cost* not an asset. Really, if I could lose 90% of my traffic and increase conversions 20%, I would do that in a heartbeat.
Now, I don't doubt that the mobile experience will continue to improve, ways to fill forms and pay on mobile will improve, conversions will improve... but it is a very slow process and for the time being, people may *convert* on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, but for the most part they still can't buy there, so the funnel still has to take them through a website. That may change and it is obviously different if you don't do ecomm, but for ecomm, the website still isn't dead.
