The Core

Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on September 23, 2020, 06:16:25 PM

Title: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on September 23, 2020, 06:16:25 PM
In the US, Halloween has become maybe the largest young adult party event, while we also still drag rugrats through the streets and door-to-door.  But given our poor track record on university and school reopenings, Debbie says the Halloween is going to be a real train wreck.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: Brad on September 23, 2020, 07:04:07 PM
We have not gotten final word from the town on trick or treating and if it will be allowed yet, but I've already decided I'm not handing out candy this year if it's on.  I may put out a bucket with candy and let the little goblins take what they want but I'm staying clear of the feeding frenzy.

Kids seem to come in clumps on Halloween and remembering social distancing is a bit much to expect from the young ones when they are so excited.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on September 23, 2020, 07:26:34 PM
>bucket

We've done that for years, worked fine.  Usually, a few 'illegal' (over age 14) teens straggle by late and we tell them to take everything that's left.

But, for the last few years, the neighborhood has been running a big T-or-T hayride.  Homeowners sit at the end of their driveway and pass a bucket around among the kids on the long, open trailers.  That'll work for us ...but I wouldn't want to be on that trailer.

Still, I think the big spreaders will be teen/adult house parties.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: Brad on September 23, 2020, 07:43:17 PM
> parties

My advice to the neighborhood POA board was to not host any parties for Halloween and Christmas because they could turn into spreader events.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on September 23, 2020, 09:50:15 PM
Americans load up on candy, trick or treat - or not
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/americans-load-candy-trick-treat-73200420
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: DrCool on September 24, 2020, 04:55:36 PM
I have been tempted to build a zipline/pulley system to deliver the candy curbside to the kids but we only get 2 or 3 trick or treaters on a normal year so that is probably overkill.

My thought is everyone should set their kids up in lawn chairs on the front yard and people drive by and throw candy out the car windows to them.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on September 24, 2020, 04:59:15 PM
>throw candy

My daughter in Charleston is going to do the 'candy tube' piped to the bottom of the porch steps (as shown on /r).

Locally in town, there was talk of the police doing trunk-or-treat.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: ergophobe on September 24, 2020, 05:15:43 PM
In my brother's neighborhood they did the opposite for a little girl who couldn't have any friends over for her birthday. All the adults and families set up at the side of the road and her parents walked the neighborhood with her and people wished her happy birthday and sang and gave her small presents such as they could obtain at the depth of lockdown when retail was still closed.

I think she is about four. My brother said it was super fun for everyone and the girl seemed pretty happy. She didn't have any friends, but she was a celebrity for a day. I wonder if she'll remember it when she gets older.

Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on September 24, 2020, 05:47:13 PM
We participated in a little girl's 9th birthday this summer.  Her parents set balloons, banners, and chairs for the immediate family out in the front yard (about 50 ft from the road).  The parents posted on the church social site asking for people to drive by any time on the afternoon of her birthday (1-5, IIRC) and blow horn & wave.

According to the mom, it was a big success and the little girl was thrilled.
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on October 13, 2020, 10:44:38 PM
Californians shouldn't trick-or-treat this Halloween, state says - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-13/california-halloween-trick-or-treat-state-health-officials-coronavirus
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on October 16, 2020, 12:29:24 AM
Officials fear Halloween could become super-spreader horror show - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-15/officials-fear-halloween-could-become-coronavirus-super-spreader
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on October 22, 2020, 04:52:36 PM
Fines tripled, trains canceled in Salem ahead of Halloween to discourage crowds during COVID pandemic - masslive.com

https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2020/10/fines-tripled-trains-canceled-in-salem-ahead-of-halloween-to-discourage-crowds-during-covid-pandemic.html
Title: Re: Halloween meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 02, 2020, 02:35:17 AM
Thousands attend Halloween party in Utah County until police arrive
https://www.ksl.com/article/50041477/thousands-attend-halloween-party-in-utah-county-until-police-arrive

Police break up two New York Halloween parties that drew nearly 1,000 people
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-halloween-new-york-0be377dc-ef40-47b7-ba95-da67678b78d4.html

Title: Re: Holidays meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 12, 2020, 10:04:26 PM
With a few exceptions, all I'm hearing around here is 'Damn the virus, full speed ahead with Thanksgiving!"  It's gonna be a mega-spreader like Halloween apparently was (looking at the current record number of cases).

Chicago Mayor Issues Stay-At-Home Advisory, Asks Residents To Cancel Thanksgiving Plans
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/11/12/chicago-mayor-issues-stay-at-home-advisory-asks-residents-to-cancel-thanksgiving-plans/
Title: Re: Holidays meets Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: DrCool on November 13, 2020, 10:23:18 PM
>Thanksgiving

Our governor put out a statement last night urging people to not do Thanksgiving with anyone outside their household. That is going to be a TOUGH sell for most people.
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 14, 2020, 08:48:30 PM
>TOUGH sell

Yeah, it's gonna be bad. Really bad.

U.S. reports record Covid hospitalizations as states roll out restrictions ahead of Thanksgiving
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/14/us-reports-record-covid-hospitalizations-as-states-roll-out-restrictions-again.html
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 14, 2020, 09:58:44 PM
<+>

Really, really bad.

40% Still Plan Large Gatherings for Thanksgiving. 33% No masks required.

https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/14/40-still-plan-large-gatherings-for-thanksgiving/
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 15, 2020, 10:21:27 PM
"Unless we change our Thanksgiving plans, we are going to have a very unmerry Christmas, I'm afraid,"

U.S. Hits 11 Million COVID Cases as Restrictions Increase and Holiday Worries Mount
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/u-s-hits-11-million-covid-cases-as-restrictions-increase-and-holiday-worries-mount/2362570/
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2020, 02:30:39 AM
As U.S. coronavirus cases soar toward 200,000 a day, holiday travel is surging - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/21/coronavirus-thanksgiving-travel/
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: Rumbas on November 22, 2020, 02:00:49 PM
It absolutely baffles me.
How come a lot of people just don't give a sh!t in the US? Trump?
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2020, 02:16:06 PM
>Trump

Debbie says that anti-science, anti-vaccine, conservative religion, & politics when grouped together account for at least 40 percent of the populace. These people, for one or more of the above reasons, are routinely ignoring masks & social distancing. 

Then we have the "essential worker" class. They have to work or they'll end up homeless & hungry. Probably 15%-ish.

And then we have a large rural population that thinks they're already living remotely and therefore they are safe.
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: ergophobe on November 22, 2020, 05:26:16 PM
Quote from: rcjordan on November 22, 2020, 02:16:06 PM
anti-science, anti-vaccine, conservative religion, & politics when grouped together account for at least 40 percent of the populace.

Since when did Debbie become an optimist? The curious thing is that I remember a handful of cranky people complaining about seatbelt laws and saying the government did not have a right to make them wear seatbelts. And yet it never became a political, partisan issue, it just took a long time before it was normalized behavior and seemed overwhelmingly to break down along age lines.

Quote
And then we have a large rural population that thinks they're already living remotely and therefore they are safe.

Like in North Dakota, for example. It finally seems to be coming to our rural county too. We had seven cases announced yesterday. Almost 10% of our total cases have happened in the last 10 days.

And yet, a very urban, pro-science, pro-vaccine, non-religious, non-conservative (albeit libertarian which in this case may be worse) family member proposed getting together for Thanksgiving.

Two weeks after Thanksgiving, things are going to be a lot worse than now.
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2020, 05:34:49 PM
>Since when did Debbie become an optimist?

Debbie didn't want to scare the Vikings away from the next CoreCon by admitting that 99% of us are either stupid, crazy, or both. (Debbie says Austin, BTW. The very heart of wacko-dom.)
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: Brad on November 22, 2020, 07:24:29 PM
> seatbelt

Pre-interwebs.  The crazies, libertarians, conservatives and conspiracy buffs have always been there.  But before they had to print hand bills or mimeograph newsletters and the media paid no attention to them or dismissed them as cranks.  Today with the interwebs we've given them a free, global platform.  They can find each other, communicate, get themselves all worked up into a frothy lather.  And the 24/7 news media combined with blogs pays attention, lends them a broader audience.  The whole anti-vaccine, anti-science and conspiracy believing movement has turned into a cult.  And like cultists, they can't be reasoned with, they have to be deprogrammed. 
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: Travoli on November 22, 2020, 07:28:43 PM
>Austin

Come hungry.
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2020, 08:01:20 PM
>hungry

When haven't we been hungry?

>And yet, a very urban, pro-science, pro-vaccine, non-religious, non-conservative family member proposed getting together for Thanksgiving.
> all I'm hearing around here is 'Damn the virus, full speed ahead with Thanksgiving!"

Seems the US isn't alone on this sentiment.

Will Thanksgiving Be a COVID-19 Disaster? In Canada, the Answer Was 'Yes'
https://time.com/5910635/thanksgiving-covid-19/

<+>
Millions of Americans set to ignore warnings against Thanksgiving travel | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/thanksgiving-travel-warnings-covid-coronavirus

Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: littleman on November 23, 2020, 12:58:55 AM
>How come a lot of people just don't give a sh!t in the US? Trump?

I agree with RC on this.  Trump exasperated the situation, but all the elements were there before him.  The rise of Qanon is also playing its part.

Worth a read:
How the pandemic broke people's brains, leading them deep into conspiracy theories (https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/coronavirus-conspiracy-qanon-algorithm-15740647.php)

Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 23, 2020, 01:16:56 AM
We've been here before.  (Really worth a read.)

On Thanksgiving more than a century ago, many Americans were living under quarantines, and officials warned people to stay home for the holiday.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2020/11/21/covid-and-thanksgiving-how-we-celebrated-during-1918-flu-pandemic/6264231002/

------
Spoiler:

Holiday gatherings devastated Seattle during 1918 flu
https://crosscut.com/opinion/2020/11/holiday-gatherings-devastated-seattle-during-1918-flu

Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on November 23, 2020, 03:53:52 PM
Boris Johnson to relax the national coronavirus lockdown and allow households to celebrate together over Christmas - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-relax-coronavirus-rules-christmas-new-3-tier-system-2020-11
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: ergophobe on November 23, 2020, 08:11:59 PM
>> Trump exasperated the situation

I think of Trump as a catalyst, not a primary reagent. We've been stockpiling reagent for roughly 30-50 years (depending on which reagent you're talking about). And now, the catalyst.
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 04, 2020, 12:14:53 AM
Surprise!  It hits the fan.

25% jump over our previous record.

Coronavirus cases in NC skyrocket as hospitalizations continue to rise
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases-in-nc-skyrocket-as-hospitalizations-continue-to-rise/19412700/
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: ergophobe on December 04, 2020, 12:55:29 AM
I don't think we've really seen much of any holiday surge at the hospitals yet. In today's press conference, Newsom said they were expecting it to hit in about a week or two.

New travel restrictions in CA go into effect when a region has less than 15% of the ICU beds empty. But it won't matter. No real enforcement, so the "rules" are more like "gentle reminders" or maybe just PSAs. "Remember, our ICUs are full, so please wear a mask while skiing this Christmas."
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 08, 2020, 08:30:26 PM
First signs of Thanksgiving COVID-19 wave emerge

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/529271-first-signs-of-thanksgiving-covid-19-wave-emerge
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: DrCool on December 09, 2020, 05:54:48 PM
The previous daily record in our county was ~200 confirmed cases and yesterday we had 694 or something like that. There was a big outbreak at the prison here (about 700 confirmed cases) and those are going into the daily numbers for the last couple days and probably more hitting today so it is a bit artificially inflated but even taking those cases out we are still not trending well. I think the post-Thanksgiving surge is hitting here and I expect some big numbers this week.

I would guess the spike after Christmas will be worse. The governor extended the "no social gatherings with people outside of your home" recommendation for three more weeks. The people who ignored that for Thanksgiving will ignore again for Christmas and there will also be another group of people who sucked it up and complied for Thanksgiving hoping they could do a larger gathering for Christmas will ignore it this time and go ahead with their plans.
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: ergophobe on December 09, 2020, 07:33:45 PM
Just spoke to someone on the Covid response team. There is no ICU space in our county (we don't have any to start with) or the county we normally send to. Single digit availability in the next furthest counties.

His comment: "Don't get a heart attack"
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 11, 2020, 07:18:26 PM
NC shatters record for new COVID cases, reporting 'staggering' 7,540 cases in one day

"The surge in cases comes two weeks after Thanksgiving, illustrating the impact of holiday gatherings"

https://www.heraldonline.com/news/state/north-carolina/article247779660.html
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 12, 2020, 04:27:11 PM
UK: Christmas five-day relaxation period 'a mistake'

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55279371
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 18, 2020, 10:28:55 PM
'Like ants on sugar': Covid-fatigued Texans shrug off mandates for holiday fun | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/18/texas-coronavirus-mandates-fredericksburg
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 19, 2020, 12:57:15 AM
Ooph!

AAA expects 85 million Americans to travel over holidays, raising fears of more viral spread | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/nation/2020/12/18/COVID-19-coronavirus-spread-winter-travel-Christmas-holidays-New-Years-vacation-AAA-TSA-flights/stories/202012180161
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 19, 2020, 08:03:52 PM
COVID travel: TSA screened 1 million passengers as holiday travel starts

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/12/19/covid-travel-tsa-1-million-passengers-holiday-travel-christmas-cdc-advice/3964377001/
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on December 28, 2020, 03:57:30 PM
TSA screens highest number of travelers since pandemic began - Axios
https://www.axios.com/tsa-pandemic-sunday-screened-ca7d90fd-9446-4862-b617-57a935517fc8.html
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on January 02, 2021, 03:59:17 PM
UK coronavirus variant has surfaced in over 30 countries since Christmas - The Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/international/uk-coronavirus-variant-has-surfaced-in-over-30-countries-since-christmas-654034
Title: Re: Holidays meet Covid = Mega Superspreader
Post by: rcjordan on January 08, 2021, 03:51:07 PM
The US has recorded over 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in one day for the first time | SBS News
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-us-has-recorded-over-4-000-covid-19-deaths-in-one-day-for-the-first-time