The Core

Why We Are Here => Hardware & Technology => Topic started by: rcjordan on May 15, 2021, 01:10:38 PM

Title: EU: Internal Combustion Cars An Expensive Luxury Compared To Electric By 2027
Post by: rcjordan on May 15, 2021, 01:10:38 PM

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2021/05/15/internal-combustion-cars-will-be-an-expensive-luxury-compared-to-electric-by-2027/?sh=32b073935189
Title: Re: EU: Internal Combustion Cars An Expensive Luxury Compared To Electric By 2027
Post by: ergophobe on May 15, 2021, 06:11:24 PM
I think the author is looking at the wrong thing:

QuoteEVs, however, are as much computing products as they automotive ones. Anyone familiar with computing products will have noticed that they get cheaper, or at least you get more for your money, every year. Sure, iPhones are ridiculously pricey, but if you compare the processing power and screen resolution of successive generations it is always going up. The classic formulation of this is Moore's Law, where the Intel co-founder Gordon Moore stated that the number of transistors on a microchip would double every two years.

As I discovered a while back, many people say, and it seems convincing, that the better predicter for both semiconductors and all sorts of other emerging manufactured goods is Wright's Law
http://th3core.com/talk/hardware-technology/wright's-law-batteries-will-drop-below-to-$85kwh-in-2025

The key isn't that they are computing products, the key is that production rates are rising for the components that are new tech, most importantly batteries.

QuoteBattery electric vehicle (BEV) pack prices are $126/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis. At the cell level, average BEV prices were just $100/kWh. This indicates that on average, the battery pack portion of the total price accounts for 21%.
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/storage/annual-survey-finds-battery-prices-dropped-13-in-2020/

There are a lot of other components that are EV-only as well, so a large part of the cost is low-volume new tech, which has room for big price drops, while the classic half of the cars (e.g. tires) will slowly inflate (so to speak) just as they do for any vehicle.

Moore's "Law" doesn't actually make sense over the long term as it is linearly exponential with no limits imposed by the physical universe.