Keep a watch on the supply chain its showing signs of strain.
The Instacart guy was just here. The first words out of his mouth were, "I got lucky, I found everything."
We talked and he confirmed my suspicion that certain items were just disappearing from grocery shelves. Stuff like Quaker Granola.
I also think some coffees are getting scarce.
This is more subtle than runs on TP, this is just certain items you have become used to disappearing.
Costco is now limiting toilet paper. TP seems to be the canary in the supply coal mine.
Great Granola shortage confirmed. I talked to another Instacart driver, this time from Aldi, who, heroically, managed to get the last package of the granola I ordered. Granola in short supply at all different grocery chains. Gator-Aid and Lunchables also in short supply. She's blaming supply-chain and kids going back to school. It would appear parents no longer know how to make PBJ sandwiches any more.
It's going to be a long Fall and Winter.
Just got back from a kidney clinic (monthy checkup) about 200 miles round trip. Several gas plazas out of gas. I dunno the reason, but I'm guessing lack of drivers.
>long Fall and Winter.
Just last night, I dropped the yellow flag about potential problems with christmas shopping. You might want to start a couple of weeks early. This was based on my feeds being chock-full of shipping problems --some major, some obscure, but the mile-high view is that there are issues everywhere.
Jen and I were just debating on whether or not we should get rid of some of our reserve toilet paper.
FWIW, this may be written by the same guys who hype storm coverage.
2021 Toilet Paper Shortage: More Empty Shelves Are Coming | Mental Floss
https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/650651/2021-toilet-paper-shortage
I just remembered: Crackers (saltines and all sorts of crackers), that's another item the Instacart delivery driver said was in short supply. Go figure.
US Pork prices to rise. Heard on radio: back in 2020 the pork processing plants had staffing troubles and shutdowns, so farmers culled the hog herds and cut back on production. Now there no longer an overabundance of pork so prices are rising.
worth a read;
Automakers' problems are much worse than we thought - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/28/business/auto-industry-supply-chain-problems/index.html
Dude, Where's My Stuff? | J.P. Morgan Asset Management
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/dude-where-is-my-stuff/
Those are both worth a read, but especially the second one. That's a nice collection of data
"It's kind of whack-a-mole — something goes wrong, it gets sorted out, then something else happens.''
The price of polyvinyl chloride or PVC, used for pipes, medical devices, credit cards, vinyl records and more, has rocketed 70%. The price of epoxy resins, used for coatings, adhesives and paints, has soared 170%. Ethylene — arguably the world's most important chemical, used in everything from food packaging to antifreeze to polyester — has surged 43%
From Paints to Plastics, a Chemical Shortage Ignites Prices – NBC Connecticut
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/from-paints-to-plastics-a-chemical-shortage-ignites-prices/2592672/
+
Retailers' Latest Headache: Shutdowns at Their Vietnamese Suppliers - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/29/business/supply-chain-vietnam.html
The workers who keep global supply chains moving are warning of a 'system collapse'
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/29/business/supply-chain-workers/index.html
Costco is renting 3 container ships and 'several thousand containers' to shield itself from supply-chain delays and rising costs
https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-charters-3-container-ships-amid-global-shipping-crisis-2021-9
And all the King's horses and all the King's men couldn't put Humpty-Dumpty back together again.
Paint is the latest product facing supply shortages and higher prices
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/29/business/paint-price-inflation/index.html
Walmart chartering its own ships to break supply chain bottlenecks
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/walmart-chartering-its-own-ships-to-break-supply-chain-bottlenecks-100721.html
Small fry note.. . just suspended a paid ad, as we have no stock for that product.
Pumpkin Shortage
https://news.yahoo.com/theres-pumpkin-shortage-u-areas-212938672.html
Books are next.
The great book shortage of 2021, explained
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/the-great-book-shortage-of-2021-explained/ar-AAPc9wc
Couches, Mattresses Still Delayed Due to Ongoing Foam Shortage
https://www.businessinsider.com/couches-mattresses-delayed-foam-shortage-2021-10
>Paint is the latest product facing supply shortages and higher prices
Wow, can confirm. I was just in Lowes and the spray paint section looked as bare as the grocery store bread & milk aisles before a hurricane. Probably 90% empty shelves.
>prices
I paid $13 for a spray can of urethane. IIRC, that's about double.
The biggest kink in America's supply chain: Not enough truck drivers - Chicago Tribune
https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-aud-nw-nyt-supply-chain-20211109-nernne5jcvc6dcx737ryefg7q4-story.html
BTW, I saw new "Learn to drive a big rig" billboards last week, but part of the problem is the new-ish restrictions on how many hours a driver is allowed to log (coupled with electronic log surveillance). It forced a lot of independent owners out of the business.
Santas Are in Short Supply Due to Labor Shortage, COVID-19 Fears
https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-santas-short-supply-covid-19-fears-christmas-2021-11
Prices are higher for turkey because there are 24% fewer birds available. Heard on radio.
Also I noticed the supermarket was limiting people to 1 frozen turkey per customer.
"cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people is up 14% over last year, averaging at $53.31.
The Farm Bureau's calculations include turkey, stuffing mix, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, coffee and milk, with enough for leftovers. The turkey itself costs 24% more than last year"
Thanksgiving dinner costs 14% more than last year, Farm Bureau says : NPR
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/18/1056809650/thanksgiving-turkey-prices-inflation-farm-bureau
Add gas/diesel prices to the bill.
>>The turkey itself costs 24% more than last year
One of the local grocery stores here is still doing their free turkey with orders over $100 deal they do every year. I went in a few days ago and the checkout lines were to the back of the store.
On a side note I did sell a ton of pasture raised turkeys through my site this season. So it seems like there is a good number of people who want something better than the grocery store turkey and are willing to pay $100-150 for a bird.
Just spoke to friends who needed to buy climbing shoes. Nobody has any.
The reason they needed them: they sent their shoes in for resoling and it has taken something like six weeks. I'm guessing the resolers are backed up because people can't buy new shoes.
I checked my go-to resoler. Typical turn-around times are 3-5, it might go up to 10 days during a huge rush like in the spring or about now. But 10 days is a lot. Their website says turnaround times are now 3-3.5 weeks.
Shite just got real.
Canada taps into strategic reserves to deal with massive shortage ... of maple syrup
https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/2021-11-25/canada-taps-into-strategic-reserves-to-deal-with-massive-shortage-of-maple-syrup
My little online retail space is getting hit pretty hard these days. About half of my stuff is manufactured in the USA, the rest is split between Italy, India and China. On a recent order I received about half of the product. The situation is continuing to get worse.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/manufacturing/
QuoteManufacturing Data – Cars, Commercial Vehicles and Engines
Over 920,000 cars built in the UK in 2020.
Car exports down 29.1% in 2020, with 749,038 shipped worldwide – 81% of total production.
Over half of these exports were to the European Union, 53.5%
Some ugly graphs.....
Transpacific Container Rates Fall to Lowest Since July
https://gcaptain.com/transpacific-container-rates-fall-to-lowest-since-july/
Corn Dogs (on a stick) have disappeared from all of my suppliers. The end of civilization is near.
Heard on the radio: most big US publishers don't print their own books anymore. They outsource and/or offshore printing. This is why publishers have been warning for weeks to buy Christmas gift books early because shortages are expected.
Zoniks! How pathetic is that? We don't even print our own books in the US anymore.
"General Motors is accelerating its shift away from China and other foreign sources for the key raw materials and components needed for the millions of battery-electric vehicles"
General Motors to source rare earth metals domestically for its electric vehicles
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/general-motors-announces-deal-source-rare-earth-metals-electric-vehicl-rcna8265
GM Secures US Rare Earth Magnet Sourcing For Ultium EVs
https://insideevs.com/news/553521/gm-us-magnet-sourcing-ultium/
That Cream Cheese Shortage You Heard About? Cyberattacks Played a Part - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/that-cream-cheese-shortage-you-heard-about-cyberattacks-played-a-part
>>Cream Cheese Shortage
We normally buy 3 pound tubs of cream cheese at Costco for the cream cheese frosting for my wife's cinnamon rolls but the last couple times I have been there I didn't see the tubs. Wonder if that is related to this.
Overall we have seen ingredient costs rise around 20-25%. A few months back the flour we used was $7.69 for a 25 lb bag and now it is closer to $9. Butter was $7.99 for 4 pounds and now it is $8.99. Other ingredients have gone up in a similar way.
I have heard from a few restaurant owners that costs for them are out of control. Buckets of fry oil that were $25 are now $75. Gloves have more than tripled in cost. Many of them are totally reworking their menu so they don't have to charge their customers a fortune for pretty simple dishes.
Great Mustard Shortage
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3161061/fries-and-mustard-shortage-due-canada-climate-chaos
Grocery store shortages are back. Here are some of the reasons whyhttps://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072462477/grocery-shortage-shelves-reasons
Quote"There are some issues with out-of-stocks, but it tends to be a situation where if you go to a store on a Tuesday night, maybe something's out of stock, but by Wednesday sometime it's back in store," Rose told NPR.
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"Everyone's become really reliant on kind of that just-in-time supply chain," he added, "and I think what we're seeing is things are just behind a little bit right now."
Four categories of problem
- Omicron
- Labor issues
- Trucking in particular
- Severe weather events
And of course it is essential that every single aspect of American life be politicized now...
QuoteSome conservatives have begun using the hashtag #BareShelvesBiden