https://longbets.org/601/
The thing is, I think the bet falsified the results. Try
https://longbets.org/600
https://longbets.org/602
Those are both 404
https://web.archive.org/web/20120801000000*/https://longbets.org/601/
Of course all that proves is that the page has been up that whole time, not that it would still exist otherwise. So, your point is still valid and probably spot on.