Just an observation on how drones will change the game of military spending.
Most countries try to maintain both an army and air force of some sort. But for small countries drones are going to replace expensive aircraft in both the close air support and recon roles for low to medium intensity fighting. This is a technology that is fast becoming cheaper and more deadly. The proof is in Ukraine.
You don't need as many big expensive air fields. Training pilots is expensive. Buying and maintaining aircraft is expensive. Support personnel cost. Smaller nations, even developed nations like Denmark, Belgium, Norway can only afford to buy a handful of new multi role fighter bombers at a time. F-35's are almost unreachable in price. For even smaller nations that cannot afford air forces like the Baltics, drones can give them an air to ground attack capability they didn't have 5 years ago. It puts them in the game at least in a small way.
On the plus side every infantry unit can carry a cheap drone for scouting.
Drones are not yet replacing fighter aircraft in the air to air role although that may happen someday. But for tactical air to ground they are rapidly making whole classes of attack aircraft obsolete (A-10's, attack helicopters etc.) for everything but the highest intensity warfare. And even there you can do a lot of damage with a lot of attack drones on your side.
I've been seeing articles and interviews with (mostly retired) generals arguing much the same, though also much broader - drones and other tech. I can try to dig some out of my feeds if you want.
>articles
I've probably read some of those EG. Some talk about really expensive systems like drones that fly along with future jet fighters and are under the manned plane's control. But the action is going to be on the low end.
I'm thinking of ones talking more about things like asymmetric warfare, consumer-grade drones, cyber warfare, etc
Lockheed working on expendable, advanced drones to team up with US Air Force fighters
https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2022/07/17/lockheed-working-on-expendable-advanced-drones-to-team-up-with-us-air-force-fighters/
Debbie: Just a few steps away from replacing fighter pilots entirely.
>team up with
I'm with Debbie. They're just being polite, for now.
Every branch of the U.S. military is struggling to meet its 2022 recruiting goals, officials say
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/every-branch-us-military-struggling-meet-2022-recruiting-goals-officia-rcna35078
ADHA diagnosis alone knocks out roughly 10% of kids. Obesity knocks out another 20%.
- https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/childhood.html
- https://www.webmd.com/add-adhd/adhd-history
When I lived in Switzerland, they were in the process of re-evaluating the universal military service requirement. They decided to keep it, but divided recruits into Soldier A and Soldier B. The PR for this was hilarious. Soldier A was hard, lean, looked ready to join Seal Team 6 and was shown in what looked like a combat situation. Soldier B was kitted out in shorts, a bit pudgy and shown at the beach handing out pamphlets about AIDS.
That's a big drone you got there...
US Navy robotic minesweeper ship declared operational
https://newatlas.com/military/us-navy-robotic-minesweeper-ship-declared-operational/
Why Ukraine Can Embarrass Russia's Air Defense Systems With Small Drones
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-advanced-air-defenses-failed-drone-strikes-2023-9
In a spectacular attack, Ukrainian drones bombarded an airport in the city of Pskov in north-west Russia, blasting four Ilyushin Il-76 military transport planes, according to state media outlet TASS.
- Recent drone attacks in Russia have exposed weaknesses in the country's advanced air defenses.
- Most of these were built to identify and destroy targets like missiles, a drone expert said.
- As a result, smaller drones have been able to evade detection and strike targets on Russian soil.
Years ago, we had a post about robotic swarm attacks. Toss in some autonomous AI and it is here.
The US and Chinese air forces are rethinking whether it's possible to control the air
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-air-force-rethink-achieving-air-superiority-in-war-2023-9
Considering what I can do with my Avata Pro FPV drone the prospect of attaching a small exsplosive device to it is pretty scarey!
I can fly 10ft off the ground at 60MPH and more sensitive and maneuverable than any other drone I've seen
The story of David vs Goliath is really a tail of innovation and technology. This situation with Russia and Ukraine reminds me somewhat of the Great War where we had 19th century thinking giving way to 20th century technology. Now there's Russia largely using doctrine and technology from the 20th century facing a very scrappy and innovative Ukraine pushing every angle it could in this asymmetrical war. I'm pretty sure we're going to see all kinds of anti drone technology developed over the next five to ten years. Probably one of the first will be drone killing drones.
-Debbie: Most of the surface Navies are dead men walking-
Faced with evolving threats, U.S. Navy struggles to change
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-nation/2023/09/10/navy-mississippi-gulf-coast-ships-bahrain/stories/202309100021
> surface Navies are dead men walking
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ag8hct/ukrainian_drones_sank_a_molniya_class_missile/
Ukrainian drones sank a Molniya class missile boat last night : UkraineWarVideoReport
Incredible footage. I wonder how long it will take for the navies of the world to implement signal jamming technology. I am also sure self-navigating drone boats are right around the corner or here already too, so the counter to that will have to be more creative. It will probably be something like fully automated perimeter guarding attack systems. They'll have to have a ton of redundancy, I sure eventually someone is going to swarm a ship with dozens of attack drones, maybe by sea and air at the same time. Such systems will very likely cause false triggers.
How much better would we be if we took our money and used it to research making people well instead of killing them? I am so very tired of new ways of war.
>I am so very tired of new ways of war.
I hear you. It would be nice if there were new ways to prevent war. The best I could come up with is democracy. Since the POTUS has had the ability to do military action without a declaration of war from Congress the US has been involved in endless conflicts. The consolidation of power is fueling most of the wars today.
Ukraine is working on a number of different drone types.
1. Ground based rescue drones. These are sort of self propelled stretchers that can go out into no-mans-land and pick up wounded soldiers (if they are able to haul themselves onboard) in places where its too dangerous to send a human team.
2. Not really a special drone type, but I've seen helicopter type drones lead walking wounded back to Ukraine lines and also lead surrendering Russian soldiers to a place they can give themselves up.
3. Mine clearance drones - not so much intended to clear mines under fire but to systematically clear fields and roads without exposing humans to danger. This is going to be a huge growth industry not just in Ukraine.
4. Explosive vehicles: Ukraine remotely drove an old AFV loaded with explosives, several kilometers across contested ground and then under a bridge where they detonated it, partially destroying same.
5. Automatic mine layers. These can lay hundreds of both anti-tank and anti-personal mines in a very short time. Russia uses these a lot. I'm not 100% sure if these are drones or if the Russians sacrifice a human driver.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korea-says-tested-underwater-nuclear-drone-rcna134659
North Korea says it tested underwater nuclear drone
https://old.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/1ahvqo2/to_use_drones_for_justice/
To use drones for justice : therewasanattempt
Quote from: rcjordan on February 03, 2024, 06:03:02 PM
https://old.reddit.com/r/therewasanattempt/comments/1ahvqo2/to_use_drones_for_justice/
To use drones for justice : therewasanattempt
All from ACME.
Russia Has Massed 500 Tanks For An Attack On Kupyansk. Thousands Of Ukrainian Drones Await Them.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/03/russia-has-massed-500-tanks-for-an-attack-on-kupyansk-thousands-of-ukrainian-drones-await-them/
Five hundred tanks. More than 600 fighting vehicles. Hundreds of howitzers. Forty thousand troops. According to Ukraine's eastern command, Russia has assembled a huge field army in eastern Ukraine opposite the free Ukrainian city of Kupyansk.
>dead men walking
"In 1982, the legendary Admiral Hyman Rickover stunned Congress by testifying that in a war with the Soviet Union, U.S. aircraft carriers would survive for "48 hours." In the four decades since, the carrier's vulnerability has dramatically increased. Anti-ship missiles have become far more accurate and long-ranged since Rickover's testimony, as the unrefueled range of an aircraft carrier's air wing has shrunk from well over 1,000 nautical miles to barely 600 now. This leaves carrier commanders with two unpalatable options: stay out of enemy range but become operationally irrelevant or sail close enough but put a $13 billion vessel and its 5,000 sailors at risk."
https://time.com/6693320/us-navy-yemen-middle-east/
Quote from: rcjordan on February 12, 2024, 12:30:20 PM
>dead men walking
"In 1982, the legendary Admiral Hyman Rickover stunned Congress by testifying that in a war with the Soviet Union, U.S. aircraft carriers would survive for "48 hours." In the four decades since, the carrier's vulnerability has dramatically increased. Anti-ship missiles have become far more accurate and long-ranged since Rickover's testimony, as the unrefueled range of an aircraft carrier's air wing has shrunk from well over 1,000 nautical miles to barely 600 now. This leaves carrier commanders with two unpalatable options: stay out of enemy range but become operationally irrelevant or sail close enough but put a $13 billion vessel and its 5,000 sailors at risk."
https://time.com/6693320/us-navy-yemen-middle-east/
Depending on who the enemey is - are most wars going to be a 'stalemate'... technologically at least? Will it not come down to the one who is willing to go all in and hope that the rest of world are too caught up in their own politics to call their bluff? Like Russia/Ukraine?
Relatively cheap missiles and drones are going to change the whole dynamic and balance of power. Players like Iran know this but it's only just dawning on the Great Powers. You don't need to buy warplanes at over $1 billion each to tactically or strategically bomb your neighbor or a country 4 states away. The guys in Yemen aren't even a state actor and they have half shut down the Red Sea and the Suez Canal and worse our warships start running out of surface to air missiles in only 2 weeks and have to sail off to reload.
Rickover is right. The days of surface warships are not quite over but they are numbered. In the medium term it effects how we design ships and what types of ships we build. I expect drones to have replaced most fighters on super carriers towards the end of the carriers lifetime. But this is going to seriously effect America's ability to project power.
>The days of surface warships are not quite over but they are numbered.
But based upon what little military history I know, nations don't change -or drop- military assets until they get their ass kicked using them. We'll have to lose 2 or 3 carriers & XX thousand personnel in a week's time.
>ass kicked >history
That is my fear here. Pearl Harbor, HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse, battleships were obsolete but we stubbornly hung on to them and lost them to a bunch of cheap airplanes. "We are always fighting the last war." One problem is flag officers tend to be old and the military tends to be hidebound and resistant to change. For example the USN has been signaling for years that they don't need more super carriers, but Congress keeps insisting they build more.
Carriers won't become obsolete overnight, but little countries will start stocking up on cruise missiles and drones and someday they will be able to hit back.
This goes for land warfare too. A cheap drone and a cheap bazooka can take out the best tanks ever made. Drones dropping lowly hand grenades can hunt soldiers in trenches and foxholes relentlessly. There is almost nowhere to hide.
And it's not just us, China, Russia, UK, France are all in the same boat.
This is part of why Australia is putting so much in on building submarines - and nuclear ones at that.
Marines to Test Logistics Drone Inspired by Drug Running Narco Subs
https://news.usni.org/2024/02/13/marine-to-test-logistics-drone-inspired-by-drug-running-narco-subs
>The days of surface warships are not quite over but they are numbered.
I am way out of my area of expertise here, but it does seem to be conceivable that counter drone technology is within grasps for first world nations with the budget to spend. Stuff like signal jamming, IR vision and heat guided counter drones, laser or conventional small arms guided by tracking systems all seem doable. I know militaries are bureaucracies and the wheels of change happen slowly, but we're a bunch of old spammers and we see it coming, surely those who do this stuff for a living are watching what's happening and taking notes?
>counter drone
The arms race.
https://www.defensemirror.com/feature/81/Battle_of_Counter_Drone_SAMs__Raytheon_s_Coyote_Vs__Russian_Pantsir_S1
Also, what is old is new again. I got some of this information from either XTwitter or Mastodon and can't be bothered to find the article again.
Ukraine had 30,000 water cooled Maxim machine guns, inherited from the USSR, in deep storage when the war broke out. They have been using them against low/slow drones by cobbling them together in duel and quad mounts on vehicles. Being water cooled, the Maxim can make sustained fire longer than a more modern air cooled machine gun which is darn handy when shooting at drones.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-maxim-machine-gun-russia/
https://afresearchlab.com/technology/thor
QuoteWHAT IS IT?
Winner of the What's New in Defense 2021 award, THOR is a counter-swarm electromagnetic weapon the Air Force Research Laboratory developed for defense of airbases. The system provides non-kinetic defeat of multiple targets. It operates from a wall plug and uses energy to disable drones.
THOR, a first of its kind system, stows completely in a 20 foot transport container, which can easily be transported in a C-130. The system can be set up within three hours and has a user interface that has been designed to require minimal user training. The overall cost to develop the technology was approximately $18 million dollars.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
The system uses high power microwaves to cause a counter electronic effect. A target is identified, the silent weapon discharges in a nanosecond and the impact is instantaneous.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Drones are becoming more pervasive every day. Rather than being used as innocuous hobby systems, drones can be employed as weapons intended to cause great harm at long standoff ranges. As they become more prolific and technically mature it is imperative that there be a safe way to protect airbases against these threats.
Ukraine is now supposedly capable of using light airplanes as kamikaze drones...
... This is most probably an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, a Ukrainian-produced light aircraft, equipped with an additional fuel tank and a remote control system.
https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1bts3oh/shahed_drone_factory_in_russias_tatarstan_over/
Shahed drone factory in Russia's Tatarstan over 1,200 kilometers away : ukraine
comment: "Even the damn suicide bombers have now been replaced by computers. No job is safe"
What is happening in that video is amazing, they are using a drone to bomb a drone factory.
It's spreading.
Myanmar's military-ruled capital attacked by drones
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68730993
https://old.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1cu8jen/last_night_ukraine_launched_over_a_hundred_drones/
Last night Ukraine launched over a hundred drones at oil facilities around Russia, this is the port of Novorossiysk
---
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/17/ukrainian-drone-attacks-on-russia-kill-2-set-oil-refinery-ablaze-a85144
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia Kill 2, Set Oil Refinery Ablaze - The Moscow Times
Has anyone been watching drone warfare videos coming out of Ukraine? The drone arms race is fascinating. Pilots are flying kamikaze drone bombs precisely into weak spots: tank engine covers, turret skirts, through enemy building windows, even flying into tank hatches. Russians started building metal sheds over their vehicles, which are now called "turtle tanks". It isn't stopping the drone pilots, who fly dozens of drones each day.
Russians then introduced signal jammers. Ukrainian drone manufacturers are working to introduce AI which will identify and guide the drone to it's target autonomously. AI drones will be equipped with local map files and will therefore not need GPS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WipqeFgzdTc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cmv1frnURHA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gWlb0N2jNc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gha9oDJpjAU
> turtle tanks
I did see one of those. It looked like they'd thrown an old chicken coop on the turret.
So 2 drones to take out a tank. 1st one blows off the chicken coop, 2nd one goes for the tank's weak spot.
I've seen quite a bit of footage and Ukraine been gradually refining their techniques over the course of the war. We may be a at the end of the age of the foot soldier. I am not sure it will make sense to have people on the ground when drones could just pop up out of nowhere or drop from the sky and kill people or even blow up tanks -- and this tech is still in it's infancy.
Some day these things will be able to drop from the sky, hover down and wait for local movement while charging their batteries from a small solar cell -- all without any human at the controls.
In the mean time, you'd think Russia would do everything they could to get as many shotguns as possible out there.
Not sure whether to post here or in Terminator Scenario...
Drone piloted autonomously be deep learning system overtakes world champion drone pilots
https://techxplore.com/news/2023-08-high-speed-ai-drone-world-champion-racers.html
I've mentioned before that one of my most hated sci-fi movie plot devices is the "switching to manual" device. The very next thing that will happen after switching to manual in 100% of those movies is that the hero dies.
As of this month, we are there.
Actually, not there YET. I should say, there under ideal conditions, but the number of constraints on what is "ideal" will decrease rapidly I think
European gun makers trial small arms as drone stoppers
ie. shotguns
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/24/european-gun-makers-trial-small-arms-as-drone-stoppers/
>European gun makers trial small arms as drone stoppers
>ie. shotguns
Future military training likely to include mandatory clay pigeon shooting course.
Bring back the best
duck drone shotgun ever: Remington 1100 | 12 ga, 30" barrel, full choke, #6 shot.
Guaranteed to do the job, even high-flyers.
<added>
Smooth as butter. Minimal recoil. Never jams. You could shoot it with one hand if necessary.
>#6 shot
How long until an ammunition manufacturer re-brands #6 to "drone shot"?
>clay pigeon shooting
For the near term anybody who is good at that will be high on the recruitment list.
I'm waiting for 12 gauge Gatling shotguns to be developed.
Fully Autonomous Weapon Systems - The technology, capability and controversy of robots at war (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tou8ahLZvP4) [video lecture]. This could have gone in the terminator thread too.
https://www.politico.eu/article/moscow-under-attack-air-defenses-shoot-down-killer-drones-over-russian-capital/
Moscow under attack: Air defenses shoot down killer drones over Russian capital – POLITICO
====
Debbie says this wasn't a drone, but -damn- it is scarily awesome.
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1exjy3f/ukraine_attacks_russian_pontoon_bridge_in_kursk/
Ukraine attacks Russian pontoon bridge in Kursk : UkraineWarVideoReport
>>Moscow under attack
I mentioned in the books thread that I just finished reading Eric Larson's The Splendid and the Vile, about Churchill's first year as PM, from May 1940 to May 1941. It's a good read and I definitely found myself thinking of Ukraine while reading it.
This reminds me, though, of how important Churchill thought it was to hit Germany. He wanted the German public to know that war had consequences. Even though the RAF could not in the early days match the Luftwaffe punch for punch (partly because the Germans had developed guidance beams the British didn't have and partly because the Germans could take off from France), the bombings cheered the British people and created challenges for Goebbels and the propaganda machine.
Well worth a read
>>Debbie says this wasn't a drone
That looks like artillery or aerial bombardment. That was a lot of ordnance.
>ordnance.
The US has supplied Ukraine with cluster munitions, and Ukraine is now manufacturing their own larger & longer-range drones. They are most likely capable of delivering a cluster bomb like this. Inexpensively.
"Jesus now they have dragons." -- /r
https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1f74vg1/a_ukrainian_drone_drops_molten_thermite_on_a/
A Ukrainian drone drops molten thermite on a Russian held treeline, setting it ablaze. : ukraine
This video is long, but it gives a good view of the challenges at the Ukraine<->Russia front line including drones and the counter measures. It was filmed from by an American veteran of the Iraq war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ox9_V-APOGg