https://fortune.com/asia/2024/01/24/toyota-chairman-akio-toyoda-ev-skepticism-thirty-percent-battery-electric-cars/
30% EV adoption before it peaks plateaus for awhile sounds about right to me. I think EV buying will level off as buyers and manufacturers pull back and work to perfect the EV to different needs and markets. EV's just are not going to work for every type of vehicle in every place. My prediction is, once we know the limits of EV tech we can go ahead with things like hydrogen fuel cells to fill the gaps.
All the announcements about this or that new battery tech coming in X years and the price premium have a lot of people sitting it out too.
It's like it was with computers for a while in that it was always hard to pull the trigger because what was promised for next year was so much better, but in this case you're looking at a purchase that is
- 30-50X more expensive
- has a 2-5X lifespan
- has much slower development cycles
- and generally does not currently offer an advantage over the old tech for most people
This is starting to feel like a concerted PR campaign....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/the-american-public-is-not-ready-ex-honcho-at-ford-gm-and-chrysler-says-hitting-biden-s-electric-vehicle-sales-goal-by-2030-is-just-not-going-to-happen-here-s-why-he-s-not-convinced/ar-BB1hbfsD
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-may-be-running-out-of-charge-bofa-says-and-it-flags-baby-boomers-as-the-main-culprit/ar-BB1hgiJs
Plateaus is the right word. I am sure the future will be where the vast majority of cars are some combination of electric+battery and electric+fuel cell. The well off may have some hydrogen powered ICE cars as toys or status symbols.
>hydrogen powered ICE cars
Oil companies want us to go to hydrogen powered cars. Oil molecules have a lot of hydrogen.
So does water though, and as far as I know the easiest and cheapest way to get pure hydrogen is to separate the H2 from the O with electricity.
Not necessarily. Fossil fuels are HYDROcarbons and "blue" and "grey" hydrogen come from cracking natural gas, not water.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/06/what-is-green-hydrogen-vs-blue-hydrogen-and-why-it-matters.html
The greening of hydrogen will depend on first having a green electrical source. It is a potential way to efficiently use overproduction of energy by renewables. What do you do with all that juice when the sun is shining and nobody is running A/C? Make hydrogen, possibly.
That would be really green because it would use only excess capacity in the grid.
>cracking natural gas
Thanks for the info. That's a good point about it really matters where the electricity & hydrogen come from.