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I am not sure why crude isn't rapidly going up the way I would expect. From what I understand global oil reserves are drying up.
> the way I would expect
Not just crude. I think that the chaos of the Trump years in particular, but the post-Covid years in general, has conditioned people to discount disruption until it really, truly hits. People just assume that the economy will not truly crater because TACO. In other words, average people, traders and world leaders have been conditioned to be skeptical of promises and threats.
We have dodged a lot of bullets in the last six years and so markets don't seem to respond to bad news in the way they did pre-2020.
Of course, the belief in TACO is only true until it isn't and when it turns out that Trump doesn't chicken out or he does, but it's too late, we may be in for a surprise.