Skip the article, here's the economics...
""We are making trillions of dollars in investments on the back of tens of billions of dollars in revenues."
The growing consensus is that these kinds of numbers add up to a bubble. The more salient question may be how big a bubble, and also what will happen if it bursts. One macroeconomic research firm, MacroStrategy Partnership, has estimated that the A.I. bubble is 17 times as large as the dot-com bubble and four times as large as the 2008 housing bubble. The housing crash may be especially instructive. It rippled across the entire economy like a contagion because the housing market had itself drawn investments from across the entire economy. This is even more true of the A.I. boom, which has been driving America's growth across the spectrum — real estate companies, banks, even energy wholesalers have all been riding the A.I. wave."
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/magazine/larry-ellison-ai-oracle.html
Did you see how the shift to investing in SpaceX resulted in a downturn in the chip companies because the money to invest in one place has to come from somewhere.
It remains to be seen how fragile the whole edifice is. I keep seeing headlines of a "crash" or "tumble" or "free fall" in chip stocks or whatever and 1) it's usually less than a 15% drop and only in a small number of companies and 2) the net result on my plain Jane index funds is always positive on the month.
So just how much free fall in chip and AI stocks has to happen?
I think the answer is that looking at stocks is missing the main story, which is in the private bond markets. And the question is how smart are the lenders? Are they hedged?
I don't think anyone will have an answer to that until we see a >25% drop in AI-related stocks. Then we will have our moment of truth.
When push comes to shove I think the fiscal picture for the US government still worries me more.