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Hurricane tracking site done by scripts reading the NOAA output. NOAA data feed time is 5am-11am-5pm-11pm (EDT) until it gets close to landfall, then they shorten the interval. Any other weatherman blather in between those 4 feeds is just bullshit to fill airtime.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html
scroll down, click "PSWC Track Map" under the satellite image
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_pos_nt4.html
(No, I did not do the site design, assholes.)
Man DB that looks bad, well at least you know its coming unlike earthquakes. In the California vs. Florida argument I'd say that's a +1 for Florida.
yeah, agreed. It looked pretty out today, you'd never know it was coming by looking out the window. A little advance notice is great. Unfortunately I'm headed out to CO on Sat and they is definitely going to fuck up our vacation one way or another.
Who knows, maybe it will swing wide.
Looks pretty wild?
>(No, I did not do the site design, assholes.)
Hahahahaha, cracked me up RC!
>(No, I did not do the site design, assholes.)
Well, obviously they stole your base template.
How bad is Irene supposed to get. And what do you do during a hurricane? Just stay inside? Do you have to go to the basement?
You are supposed to have hurricane proof glass or shutters (no basements in Florida, I'm looking at sea level right behind my house) and hunker down.
I think its going to miss us though, based on its current trajectory. More likely to hit rc/Drastic now, and leave us with a tropical storm.
refresh http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_plot_nt4.gif
Re tracking:
A#1 - All or almost all of the big media weather sites are going to be worthless to as the hurricane approaches landfall. Locally, even nationally, the available bandwidth is going to be consumed when it comes ashore. So bookmark the above gif and you have the barest of barebones info. I'm usually able to access it even during the hurricane, though even it can sometimes crawl. Their server is located in New England, so it's not going to be affected.
There are 4 supercomputers generating US hurricane path data (up from 3 as of 5 or 6 years ago). These are blended/adjusted by NOAA to pick the most likely path. While I see the cover-our-ass logic of those cone-shaped probability projections, it's been my experience that the 4 supercomputers are very, very accurate once we get down to a 72 hour window.
According to insurers, MOST of the major property damage (I've read percentages as high as 70%) is due to flying objects like picnic tables, lawn chairs, etc. So it's worth it to get outside and lash that stuff down.
Suck in your gut, Travoli. This one is going to be close.
>flying objects
down here I hear coconuts are like cannonballs once the wind is strong enough to launch them from the trees.
>This one is going to be close.
Looks that way; good luck up there.
>down here I hear coconuts are like cannonballs once the wind is strong enough to launch them from the trees.
God, I never thought about that. That's heinous.
>>flying objects
I believe I read that patio furniture is the biggest single problem.
Here are pictures of my house taken about 10 days after Isabel (2003). I was in London when it hit.
The first is on approach from the road. Doesn't look too bad ....except you normally wouldn't see that much sky. You see, the house HAD been located within groves of trees.
The second is taken from the riverfront. And the third is within the waterfront 'grove' itself. The front yard was much the same except that the front grove had more oaks. With very few exceptions, the pines and hardwood trees you see left standing were so damaged that they had to be removed. The cypress trees down along the creek did withstand the winds.
'ckinhell RC, that looks nasty.
Yeah, I bet patio furniture can easily kill you at 100+mph:) light. lots of surface area. very hard corners. right outside your house. probably lots of windows looking out on it... they tell us to bring it in on the news.
But don't minimize coconuts too much; I hear they kill more people a year than sharks:)
I still see blue skies outside down here, looking SW...
Coastal Cities Wind Rain Surge
Miami Gusts <40 mph 1" or less <1 foot
West Palm Beach Gusts <40 mph 1" or less <1 foot
Melbourne Gusts <40 mph 1" or less <1 foot
Daytona Beach Gusts <40 mph 1" or less <1 foot
...this is going way wide of me for sure
Yeah, you're clear to go to CO.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0005idz/
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/last_event/states/states_colorado.php
...and me car camping for a week in a rental car, with no gun:)
Was your house damaged, RC? I mean other than the landscaping?
And, I must say, you live in a beautiful place...
>damaged
Nothing structural and no water damage (my windows and doors held, which is more than I can say for most of my neighbors' houses). When I built the house, I left 3 or 4 large trees within 10 or 15 feet of house on the waterfront side. Luckily, a few years before Isabel I decided that wasn't such a smart idea and removed them.
>I must say
Thanks. I did decide re-skin the exterior after the hurricane cleared my trees. The 'cedar-planked lodge' look just wasn't right without being in a grove. Besides, I was getting tired of the cedar exterior. It's hardi-plank now. Still a work-in-progress.
>And, I must say, you live in a beautiful place...
More than that, it's an awesome house in a lovely area.
RC, Sounds like you were prepared, but also lucky when that one hit.
Do you have big tidal ranges down there? Being to near to the sea is a problem in the UK<, as if a Spring tide coinsides with a storm, then the water rises even higher, so defences are broken.
Strikes me all that wind could do the same.
Never have like coconuts. I see another reason to dislike them now. :o
You aren't kidding. It looks like the Outer Banks are going to be hit worst.
I was down there yesterday and the ocean current was crazy. Couldn't plant our feet, the water was carrying us North.
Here's hoping neither of us needs a boat. I'm off to the grocery store at 6:30am to find some bottled water. Hopefully.
Rupert, hate the storm, not the coconuts. They are God's gift.... especially when mixed with rum and crushed ice:)
I woke up and the sky is grey, wind is fairly quiet. Looks like she's starting to make herself known...
Mmm, been having the odd cocktail.
Made my own black current juice the other day, added some ice and white rum....
See you nearly had be convince Dogboy, but compared to black currents? Sorry Black current wins :)
>> I hear they kill more people a year than sharks:)
Hey, if a shark comes hurtling through the air at 100mph you'll be wishing it was a coconut! :)
damn, raining 100mph sharks? Yeah, bad day indeed!
Rupert, you aint got nothin on me...
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:) Note to self... take picture of next cocktail for Dogboy....
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merely a slight breeze?
Everyday weather it seems, though the palm trees are a bit unusual ;)
Now appears to be on a bullseye path to hit Travoli and rcjordan. 6am water run successful.
Currently 83 degrees and sunny, nothing to see here.
Travoli what do you mean by
Quote6am water run successful.
he said he needed to go get a bunch of bottles of water in case they turn the water off...
He did.
We get notice when the water is turned off in the UK. Just never logged it.
Like Japan/New Zealand/ Lbyia/Egypt and all the other unrests, riots, earth quakes floods and storms; they are never quite real unless you are in them.
So good luck to you Guys, I do hope you come out the other side unscathed.
Are we getting more than usual these last few years? certainly feels like it.
Best of luck folks - stay safe.
We only got hit with 4 bands of strong rain so far... if I hadn't had watched the news, I wouldn't have even thought twice about them. But it definitely looks grim up North. Carolinas are in harms way, without question...
Good luck.
we had a bad storm during the night and I heard a loud noise so went out to investigate what it was and I could not believe the damage and devastation caused to the rear garden
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only joking and I hope everyone is OK come this time next week
I guess that's...
Furniture:1
Coconuts:0
looks bad Mick - best stock up on essential supplies and dig in for the weekend :)
Quote from: Rupert on August 25, 2011, 04:58:06 PM
Are we getting more than usual these last few years? certainly feels like it.
I've been wondering that. Or perhaps it just gets reported more and/or I take more notice now?
2 dead and 200000 without power in North Carolina, so far.
It's all a bit crazy. I hope you are all alright.
My only suggestion is you start building stuff out of bricks. We do and it stays up for ages.
Good luck
The eye is passing over or just outside my town now. The strength is much diminished, just barely a hurricane. I'm in town now (no power at the house). Some flooding in the lowest areas.
<added>
Winds here just reported at 75mph.
Rupert asked earlier about tides. Due to local quirky geography we don't have lunar tides but wind tides. An average hurricane raises or lowers the water level about 4 feet pending on the direction it approaches from. Because we're so flat, rising water is more like a slow-motion tsunami rather than a flash flood. Again, it has more to do with wind direction and the speed the hurricane is moving across land than wind speed. Some of our worst floods have been caused by relatively weak hurricanes. From what I've been able to observe so far this one is slightly higher than 4 feet and may peak in an hour or so.
Travoli lives where they DO have lunar tides. If it hits at a high tide there, his city is screwed.
>> My only suggestion is you start building stuff out of bricks. We do and it stays up for ages.
Just ask Mick
:D
> bricks
One of our hurricanes in the 50's did so much damage to masonry buildings that it forced a change in the basic building code. The main problem is the roof, not the walls. If we used the far heavier tiles that you use then high winds wouldn't lift the roof as easily. Our newer building codes require the roof rafters to have steel straps securing them to the sidewalls. Some areas also require bolts to come from the foundation all the way to the roof system to tie the whole structure together.
If cost didn't matter, I'd build a steel frame house.
>If it hits at a high tide there, his city is screwed.
Eye just crossed the NC/VA border. Will be just East of here within the hour. Which matches perfectly with high tide.
I am told the ocean is about to be overtaken by the ocean. Flooding likely.
And yet, we have power. I have my windows open. Winds are mild. Very relaxed. But the water will get higher before it recedes.
Prediction: NY and NJ evacuees are going to pitch a fit when this turns out to be an over-hyped storm.
Sure, there have been a few deaths from trees falling on cars, but the Northeast is going to be fine.