The Core

"The Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau admitted recently that the audience for live TV is dropping at a rate of roughly 10 percent per year as viewers abandon both broadcast and cable networks."

You don't have to read any further, the above tells it all. But if you're interested
http://www.avclub.com/article/tv-audiences-are-steadily-shrinking-and-its-all-in-216463

So, in 5 years, traditional TV viewing in the US will be so withered that it will be nearly irrelevant.  In 7 years, all but gone.

Who are the winners?

Youtube
Twitch.tv
Netflix
Amazon
Hulu
HBO

>HBO

And all the other premium channels if they play their cards right and become carrier agnostic.  HBO seems to be leading the pack, I guess because they have the most muscle.

Networks like AMC that are consistently churning out high quality, highly watched shows (Walking Dead, Breaking Bad, Mad Men, Better Call Saul, etc.) should probably look at what HBO is doing and learn from it.

AMC signed on with SlingTV. It went live there about a week ago. Smart.

I think content producers are going to face a situation that roughly parallels newspapers. Their whole cost structure is going to be toppled. They will not be able to afford what they've become accustomed to.  I also think the losers will be the second-tier consumers that liked the less popular programs.  In short, if you don't like "House Of Cards" or "Orange Is The New Black," tough ...you're not in the target demographic, so go watch old stuff on Netflix.

Better article, more stats. Worth a skim.

The Death of Broadcast TV
http://247wallst.com/media/2015/03/15/the-death-of-broadcast-tv/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unbundling-pay-tv-brings-questions-004600187.html

NPR produced a show on the decline of cable TV this morning.
With all of the media coverage, perhaps it will happen more quickly.

Time Shifting Has Become The Default

"ad avoidance is a factor in time-shifting, but not the main one. 60% of respondents cited the convenience of watching on their own time as the primary benefit, vs. only 37% saying skipping ads was favored."

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/245710/time-shifting-has-become-the-default.html

I'm not sure I agree with the above results.  IMO, TIVO was probably the beginning of the slippery slope and the convergence of internet and digital content delivery just accelerated the slide to where we are today.  Whether it's ad avoidance or convenient viewing, traditional TV has hit the tipping point and even the luddite public is becoming aware that there are increasingly popular alternatives.  I've installed OTA and am preparing to install the Channel Master DVR to do both for Louise. Time-shifting is probably the most important reason for what she might want to view and doesn't want to miss BUT for daily general use, the number & duration of consecutive ads is unbearable --even though I don't watch TV, I'll be damned if she should be forced to endure that barrage just to catch a program OTA.

>perhaps it will happen more quickly

See "even the luddite public is becoming aware" above

So after years of having cut the cord, I'm going to call the cable company to see what the catch is for $40/month for basic+HD and highest speed internet, while I am on slowest (60mb) for $60/mo. It's for the first year, so I'm sure the price balloons for second year which you are locked into.

Reddit says that you frequently get standard internet no matter what you pay for.  Buyer beware.

2nd year will be mid-70s or higher.

"a whopping 86% of all U.S. consumers are doing something else while watching TV, most of those activities being online or using some sort of alternate multimedia mobile device. But the average number of activities while viewing television changes from each demographic, with Millennials averaging four activities compared to three for Generation Xers, two for Baby Boomers, and one for the over-66 crowd."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2015/03/21/the-millennial-trends-that-are-killing-cable/


There are some seo/web-marketing implications in here somewhere.

Why Cable TV Beats the Internet, For Now
It's not time to cut cable yet, unless you're among the few cord-cutters who can clear enough hurdles

http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-cable-tv-beats-the-internet-for-now-1427225376?mod=e2fb

BUNDLED CABLE DEATHWATCH: VIACOM'S LAYOFFS, $785 MILLION LOSS, COLLAPSING RATINGS

Along with that crash in ratings comes a crash in advertising rates and, obviously, a collapse in revenues.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2015/04/07/bundled-cable-deathwatch-viacoms-layoffs-785-million-loss-collapsing-ratings/

Quote from: Drastic on March 20, 2015, 03:14:00 PM
So after years of having cut the cord, I'm going to call the cable company to see what the catch is for $40/month for basic+HD and highest speed internet, while I am on slowest (60mb) for $60/mo. It's for the first year, so I'm sure the price balloons for second year which you are locked into.

So I missed the $40/ EACH part in small print, so the offer is $80/yr for tv/internet first year then goes to 110 second year.

Not even close to interested.

>second year

Anecdotally, I'm seeing some signs that gimmick is starting to fail.

Be prepared for a protracted battle over broadband fees. With the collapse of bundle revenue, they are going to use it to support their finances.

>Be prepared for a protracted battle over broadband fees.

Yep, they already started climbing here. They raised the lowest speed you can get and raised the price accordingly.

I ran across a reference to this deep in a reddit comment in my feed. Went searching. Relates to both this discussion of "TV is dead" and -probably more- changing US demographics. (One American in six is now Hispanic, up from a small minority two generations ago. By mid-century it will be more than one in four.)

"Fox still leads in audience, but that audience is smaller than it used to be. In 2013, Fox's prime-time viewership declined 6% from the previous year, according to median monthly viewership data provided by Nielsen Media Research. But with 1.7 million viewers each evening, the channel still drew a bigger audience than CNN, MSNBC and HLN combined. Fox surpassed then-leader CNN in prime-time viewership in 2002, and has never looked back. However, there is some evidence of a ceiling for audience growth. Fox has not increased its median evening viewership since 2009."

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/01/14/five-facts-about-fox-news/

Off-topic: Hispanic info:
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21645996-one-american-six-now-hispanic-up-small-minority-two-generations-ago

worth a read re AwesomenessTV

'Traditional TV viewing for teens and tweens is dead. Not dying. Dead.'

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/15/traditional-tv-viewing-teens-tweens-awesomenesstv-meg-deangelis

Amazon beats Netflix to sign ex-Top Gear talent for new motoring show

http://arstechnica.com/cars/2015/07/amazon-beats-netflix-to-sign-ex-top-gear-talent-for-new-motoring-show/

I'm excited to see what the Top Gear guys come up with. Happy I won't have to buy a Netflix subscription for it, too.

This is a massive breach of the cable companies' walled garden;

NFL Gamepass now available in the US

(b) NFL Game Pass (Domestic) available to users in the United States, Mexico, Bermuda, Antigua, the Bahamas, and any U.S. territories, possessions and commonwealths (including American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (collectively, the "NFL Game Pass Domestic Included Territories"): includes access to live and archived video of NFL preseason games, archived video of regular season games);

http://www.nfl.com/help/subscriptions_terms

<added>
This is a new development and details of what is now included in [US] Gamepass aren't clear. It may be gutted.

Gamepass: evidently, the NFL requires a delay in the US, probably due to broadcast licensing.

http://www.cuttingcords.com/home/2015/8/1/the-nfl-gamepass-has-launched-in-the-us-heres-why-youll-still-want-the-international-version-and-how-to-get-it

Yeah they need to hang on to live sports like their lives depend on it.

It's all they have left.

Death spiral accelerates. It's significant that these are from the financial press.

QuoteESPN and the live sports programming it delivers have long been counted on as one of the last defensible positions for the traditional content providers. But there are cracks in the armor.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2015/08/05/content-wars-disney-espn-netflix/

TV networks are stuffing more and more ads into the commercial breaks in a 'desperate' attempt to counter plummeting ratings

Quotead stuffing is an obvious and unsustainable (some would say "desperate") action by the networks to prop up ad revenue in the face of declining audiences. Not only can this not be sustained going forward, it further contributes to the audience declines, making SVOD (streaming video on demand) that much more preferable for viewers made numb by the absurd amount of ads

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernstein-report-confirms-tv-networks-are-increasing-ad-stuffing-2015-8

<added>
another one

Bloomberg: Dish's Internet television business is growing fast, but not as fast as its satellite business is shrinking

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-05/is-dish-hiding-the-good-news-about-sling-tv-

Ouch! That's going to leave a mark.  If you're quiet, you can hear cable's keystone starting to slip.

When Wall Street Meets Cord Cutters, Investors Lose $60 Billion

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/when-wall-street-meets-cord-cutters-investors-lose-60-billion

----

Stock Market Has Cord Cutting Freak Out After ESPN Viewer Losses

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/ESPN-Losses-Wake-Cable-TV-Investors-Up-to-Cord-Cutting-134711

QuoteThe continued losses at ESPN could drive the company to offer a direct-to-consumer streaming service sooner than it had originally wanted (the company recently suggested it might not arrive for another five years).

ESPN has been suing any pay TV provider that offers so-called "skinny TV" bundles that don't include ESPN in the core channel lineup. They're now stuck between a rock and a hard place: ignoring the cord cutting revolution and maintaining the status quo (which will drive cord cutting) or embracing the cord cutting revolution and offering a direct-to-consumer option (which will drive cord cutting).

----

Again, nowhere in my reading has a financial analyst seriously addressed the issue that interest in our tv-market sports is declining.

>our tv-market sports is declining.

Really, how much? I've not read anything on this either.

>How much

I can't say. But the signs are everywhere. They've been there for at least a decade now.  Some of it was/is anecdotal, but it's starting to surface enough that the analysts ought to pick up on it --I think, seriously, that they are in denial. Like Doc Cool used to be, hhh. A decade ago, I'd be hooted if I said sports was failing with youth and young adults. Now, even previously rabid fanbois often agree.

Anyway, the signs...

Youth Participation Weakens in Basketball, Football, Baseball, Soccer
Fewer Children Play Team Sports
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303519404579350892629229918

TV SPORTS; The Decline and Fall of Sports Ratings
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/10/sports/tv-sports-the-decline-and-fall-of-sports-ratings.html

Baseball is struggling to hook kids — and risks losing fans to other sports
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/baseballs-trouble-with-the-youth-curve--and-what-that-means-for-the-game/2015/04/05/2da36dca-d7e8-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html

NASCAR's TV ratings slump continues
http://www.sportingnews.com/nascar/story/2014-09-01/nascar-sprint-cup-2014-tv-ratings-fox-espn-nbc

What Has Happened To The Once High-Flying Sport Of NASCAR?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/roberttuchman/2015/02/23/what-has-happened-to-the-once-high-flying-sport-of-nascar/

As F1 TV viewing figures continue to fall globally, is there a solution to the problem?
http://motorsportstalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/14/as-f1-tv-viewing-figures-continue-to-fall-globally-is-there-a-solution-to-the-problem/

The NFL's Biggest Challenge? Keeping Younger Viewers
http://variety.com/2014/tv/news/the-nfls-greatest-test-not-ray-rice-but-young-crowds-who-tune-out-games-1201307613/

QuoteThe average audience between 18 and 49 for NFL broadcasts across CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN and the NFL Network has declined by about 10.6% over the last four seasons, according to Nielsen data prepared by Horizon Media, to about 7.7 million in 2013 from about 8.62 million in 2010. Meantime, male viewers between 18 and 24 watching the sport have also fallen off, tumbling about 5.3% in the same time period, to approximately 847,000 in 2013 from 894,000 in 2010.

"This segment is not passionate about the NFL like older age groups,"

<late OT addition>

Cord-Cutting Gets Ugly: U.S. Pay-TV Sector Drops 566,000 Customers in Q2

QuoteGreenfield wonders if pay-TV execs fully appreciate how quickly consumer behavior is shifting...

...There is clear and convincing evidence that consumers are increasingly cutting the cord or shaving the cord," BTIG Research analyst Rich Greenfield wrote in a blog post Friday. "In turn, some of the executive commentary makes you wonder how disconnected from reality they are.

http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/cord-cutting-gets-ugly-u-s-pay-tv-sector-drops-566000-customers-in-q2-1201559878/

---

BINGO!

Quote...younger generations have become disillusioned by endless war mongering, partisanship, racial bias, politician and police worship, reality TV, and celebrity media frenzies that have become the trademarks of TV news.

...Aging generations, which will probably never break their TV habits, are now the only reliable audiences for the likes of CNN, Fox News, NBC, CBS, and the rest of the mainstream media.

Mainstream Media Stock Prices Collapsing as People Choose Internet Over TV

http://theantimedia.org/mainstream-media-stock-prices-collapsing-as-people-choose-internet-over-tv/

update:

ESPN Layoffs Begin

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/26/525743455/espn-layoffs-begin-and-some-100-employees-may-lose-jobs

Quote from: rcjordan on April 26, 2017, 11:04:07 PM
update:

ESPN Layoffs Begin

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/26/525743455/espn-layoffs-begin-and-some-100-employees-may-lose-jobs

They are laying off some pretty solid reporters, columnists, and on air personalities too. Not just the scrubs. Kind of shows that even the cord cutter proof broadcasts like sports are suffering. One problem with ESPN in the past the best place to see highlights was SportsCenter. Now you can just see all the highlights you want to online. Aside from the live sports the only other thing they have is talk shows and those are 95% annoying.

They will be starting their own stand alone streaming service (similar to HBO To Go) which should help stem the tide a bit.

^{(To the tune of Pink Floyd)} We don't need no awards shows.

Emmy awards U.S. TV audience hits all-time low

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-awards-emmys-ratings/emmy-awards-u-s-tv-audience-hits-all-time-low-idUSKCN11P1O8

#SMILE

ESPN is apparently the canary in the coal mine.

https://www.fastcompany.com/40501613/espns-john-skipper-just-announced-another-150-layoffs

<4 years later>

Streaming Subscribers Outnumbered Cable in 2018 for First Time | Digital Trends
https://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/streaming-subscribers-2018-mpaa/

"Fox averaged the most total viewers, with 1.22 million, a drop of 45% from April 2020. MSNBC averaged 953,000 total viewers in total day, a drop of 25% from last year – the smallest drop of all the cable news networks in this segment. CNN was third, with 786,000, a drop of 42% from the year before."

April Ratings: Fox News Returns to Dominance, But All Networks See Steep Declines From Last Year
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/april-ratings-fox-news-returns-to-dominance-but-all-networks-see-steep-declines-from-last-year/

<warp>

Worth a read;

Cord-Cutting Q1 2023: Pay-TV Ops Lose 2.3M Subs, Worst Quarter to Date - Variety

https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/cord-cutting-all-time-high-q1-2023-pay-tv-losses-1235610939/

I've never had pay TV personally, though we have it in the rental.

But talking to my neighbor, who just decided he was done with satellite TV, there was a factor not mentioned in the article. He says the over-the-air free TV quality has improved with the rollout of new digital broadcasting, and they are rolling out enhanced recording capability. It still isn't like satellite where you could record two shows while watching another, but the niche in between on-demand streaming and over-the-air is getting smaller and smaller not just because of the growth of on-demand, but because of some improvements on the other end.

I was at his house watching the over-the-air on a new OLED whatever-K TV and it was astounding quality.

>over-the-air free TV quality

FTFY: Signal quality.   The content quality, even discounting ad saturation, is horrific.  News may be tolerable, but try sitting through a sitcom or reality show sometime.

Well , yes. I believe he mostly watches news, weather and sports in real time, the rest streamed.

It's mostly the sports that have kept him subscribed, but as prices climb, he's finding he is not that addicted to sports.

And.... today I got the new bill for the satellite TV for our rental. I ignored it at first because I thought I had missed an autopay due to an expired card or something because it was roughly double previous bills.

Alas, no, my bill went from $66.32/mo to $111.76/mo because the two-year promo offer I was on expired.

After chatting with two different customer service reps, I'm back down to $69.17/mo, but their original solution ($81.76) was going to end in me cancelling and now that they have gotten me angry at the company (the reps were great actually), they've successfully put the idea of cancelling in my head.

I only keep it because I don't know how much people use it and, when we had geosynch satellite with limited bandwidth, I was looking for anything that would keep them off the internet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/disney-streaming-results-improve-as-cable-tv-decays.html

The streaming future Disney promised is finally here as cable TV decays

Will this kill local tv journalism in the same way online national text media and  marketplaces killed local text journalism?

For the most recent part, Sinclair has already taken care of that in smaller markets. The journalism is dead but they're still putting it on the air.