The Core

Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: Brad on August 11, 2016, 11:33:07 PM

Title: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: Brad on August 11, 2016, 11:33:07 PM
... not just panels, but the whole roof.

http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-solarcity-will-make-solar-roofs-2016-8
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: rcjordan on August 11, 2016, 11:47:48 PM
I think Travoli mentioned the idea of solar shingles a year or so ago.  I'm guessing that what's Musk is talking about.  

I have a lot of misgivings about the application process and associated costs as well as longterm viability of the underlying roof structure.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: ergophobe on August 12, 2016, 05:04:02 PM
>> lot of misgivings

Ye of little faith.

Then again...

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602147/elon-musks-promise-of-solar-roofs-has-echoes-of-a-rust-belt-failure/

Last I looked, one of the major issues was that the shingles were a lot less efficient at converting solar energy, so the pricing works out differently. And with overproduction in China and plummeting installation labor costs for solar panels, I think the shingles are a hard sell. But right now, I don't think anyone even knows whether this is a "shingle" product of some other kind of roof module.

Still, built-in carries risks that add-on doesn't, as RC said.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: Travoli on August 13, 2016, 10:41:54 PM
Yes, he FINALLY listened. It's about time. Now... sign me up in 10 years when it's cheap and the system is proven.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: rcjordan on October 29, 2016, 12:31:54 PM
Looks heavy to me.  In most(?) of the US, houses aren't designed/built to support a tile roof, so the retrofit market is going to be slim, imo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRqSkR4ENAg
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: grnidone on November 02, 2016, 05:11:07 AM
I like the solar roadways idea:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlTA3rnpgzU

Even if only the sidewalks were made solar, imagine how much energy could be created.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: Rooftop on November 02, 2016, 09:21:57 AM
I think Musk's home battery is the less-sexy, but most interesting development in this area.
Generating power at home isn't hard. Keeping it there is.  As a result most people sell it back to the grid, then buy it back later. Makes no sense unless you are a power company.  Even if you don't generate power yourself, home electricity storage could become something that the power companies want us to have (or even pay for) as their widespread use would save fortunes in what the companies pay for peak power demands.

Good for preppers too!  (In fact I quite like the idea of getting one for the office as a big ol' UPS system)
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: ergophobe on November 02, 2016, 04:42:12 PM
Quote from: Rooftop on November 02, 2016, 09:21:57 AM
Makes no sense unless you are a power company. 

Actually, under the current law in force many places, this makes no sense if you *are* a power company. Most power companies have to buy it at the same price they sell it. Furthermore, their on the hook to maintain an infrastructure that can meet peak demand, but they have less and less base demand. If you're in a hot, sunny place it works out - power usage is highest when the sun is out and the AC is on. If you're in a cold, dark place, this makes it super hard for power companies.

Yes, home power and batteries will put them out of business. But maintaining peak capacity without having a full set of ratepayer during the higher profit, lower usage periods is going to kill them too.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: rcjordan on May 10, 2017, 06:12:15 PM
Tesla's Solar Roof Is Finally Ready For You to Buy
Elon Musk says orders will begin today. Pricing details have yet to be revealed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/tesla-s-solar-roof-is-finally-ready-for-you-to-buy

Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: rcjordan on May 11, 2017, 12:48:24 AM
Holy crap!!

Company says 'typical homeowner' can expect to pay $21.85 per square foot for solar roof
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: Travoli on May 11, 2017, 04:43:19 PM
Can anyone find spec sheets? I haven't seen how much energy they produce per sqft.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: ergophobe on May 11, 2017, 05:47:04 PM
Quote from: rcjordan on May 11, 2017, 12:48:24 AM
Company says 'typical homeowner' can expect to pay $21.85 per square foot for solar roof

We reroofed a neighbor's house some years back (a good, old-fashioned neighborhood roof raising for a retired couple tight on cash). We roofed over the existing roof, so cheapest case. He has a steep roof that was a problem and high (above a certain point, most contractor's insurance won't apply so you need someone with a rider). For a cheap comp roof, they were getting quotes over $20K, which is probably about $15/sf for his house. If he had been looking at a premium roofing (standing seal metal, tile, etc), it would have been way more.

So this sounds pretty attractive at $22/sf with electricity added in as a bonus.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: ergophobe on May 11, 2017, 05:52:33 PM
Tile roof, which is what they're competing against (tile and slate they say and slate is even pricier) costs 16,000 at the limit of 1 SD on the bell curve
http://www.homeadvisor.com/cost/roofing/install-replace-tile-roof/#

Assuming a 3000 sf house, with 1600 feet of roof space, that would be $10/sf

The quotes our neighbor was getting had a lot to do with steepness and height (scaffolding and ropes needed - way past 12/12 pitch, which is about the steepest you can walk around on.  So yeah, $22/sf is high
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: buckworks on May 11, 2017, 09:52:51 PM
Depending on the design of the roof, it might make sense to do a solar roof on the south-facing pitches and regular shingles on the rest.

Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: rcjordan on May 11, 2017, 10:13:57 PM
>south-facing pitches and regular shingles on the rest

My thought as well.

>depending on the design

Couldn't look any worse than the current array of panels


I have a 7/12 pitch using 50 squares (square is roofer talk for 100 sq ft.) of asphalt shingle. About 6 years ago, I replaced the old 3-tab shingles with architectural shingles.  Home Depot is advertising them today for $27/bundle = $81/square. = .81 sq/ft. Double that for starter strips, felt paper, staples, etc. and materials = < $2/sq ft. Stripping the old roof is cheap, and using the old rule of thumb 40% materials / 60% labor and we're coming in at $5/sq ft.

I've texted a roofer I know. We'll see if I'm close.
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: Mackin USA on May 12, 2017, 11:29:23 AM
I like Musk but China is the dominate player IMO
Saw that a BIG firm filed BK this week - can't find the name...

2009 to 2010

Bankrupt, closed, acquired

    Advent Solar (emitter wrap-through Si) acquired by Applied Materials
    Applied Solar (solar roofing) acquired by Quercus Trust
    OptiSolar (a-Si on a grand scale) closed
    Ready Solar (PV installation) acquired by SunEdison
    Solasta (nano-coaxial solar) closed
    SV Solar (low-concentration PV) closed
    Senergen (depositing silane onto free-form metallurgical-grade Si substrates) closed
    Signet Solar (a-Si) bankrupt
    Sunfilm (a-Si) bankrupt
    Wakonda (GaAs) closed


2011

Bankrupt, closed

    EPV Solar (a-Si) bankrupt
    Evergreen (drawn Si) bankrupt
    Solyndra (CIGS) bankrupt
    SpectraWatt (c-Si) bankrupt
    Stirling Energy Systems (dish engine) bankrupt


Acquisition, sale

    Ascent Solar (CIGS) acquired by TFG Radiant
    Calyxo (CdTe) acquired by Solar Fields from Q.cells
    HelioVolt (CIGS) acquired by Korea's SK Innovation
    National Semiconductor Solar Magic (panel optimizers) exited systems business
    NetCrystal (silicon on flexible substrate) acquired by Solar Semiconductor
    Soliant (CPV) acquired by Emcore


2012

Bankrupt, closed

    Abound Solar (CdTe) bankrupt
    AQT (CIGS) closed
    Ampulse (thin silicon) closed
    Arise Technology (PV modules) bankrupt
    Azuray (microinverters) closed
    BP (c-Si panels) exits solar business
    Centrotherm (PV manufacturing equipment) bankrupt
    CSG (c-Si on glass) closed by Suntech
    Day4 Energy (cell interconnects) delisted from TSX exchange
    ECD (a-Si) bankrupt
    Energy Innovations (CPV) bankrupt
    Flexcell (a-Si roll-roll BIPV) closed
    GlobalWatt (solar) closed
    GreenVolts (CPV) closed
    Global Solar Energy (CIGS) closed
    G24i (DSCs) bankrupt in 2012, re-emerged as G24i Power with new investors
    Hoku (polysilicon) shut down its Idaho polysilicon production facility
    Inventux (a-Si) bankrupt
    Konarka (OSCs) bankrupt
    Odersun (CIGS) bankrupt
    Pramac (a-Si panels built with equipment from Oerlikon) insolvent
    Pairan (Germany inverters) insolvent
    Ralos (developer) bankrupt
    REC Wafer (c-Si) bankrupt
    Satcon (BoS) bankrupt
    Schott (c-Si) exits c-Si business
    Schuco (a-Si) shutting down its a-Si business
    Sencera (a-Si) closed
    Siliken (c-Si modules) closed
    Skyline Solar (LCPV) closed
    Siemens (CSP, inverters, BOS) divestment from solar
    Solar Millennium (developer) insolvent
    Solarhybrid (developer) insolvent
    Sovello (Q.cells, Evergreen, REC JV) bankrupt
    SolarDay (c-Si modules) insolvent
    Solar Power Industries (PV modules) bankrupt
    Soltecture (CIGS BIPV) bankrupt
    Sun Concept (developer) bankrupt


Acquisition, fire sale, restructuring

    Oelmaier (Germany inverters) insolvent, bought by agricultural supplier Lehner Agrar
    Q.Cells (c-Si) insolvent, acquired by South Korea's Hanwha
    Sharp (a-Si) backing away from a-Si, retiring 160 of its 320 megawatts in Japan
    Solibro (CIGS) Q-Cells unit acquired by China's Hanergy
    Solon (c-Si) acquired by UAE's Microsol 
    Scheuten Solar (BIPV) bankrupt, then acquired by Aikosolar
    SolFocus (CPV) layoffs, restructuring for sale
    Sunways (c-Si, inverters) bought by LDK, restructuring to focus on BIPV and storage


2013

Bankrupt, closed

    Bosch (c-Si PV module) exits module business
    Concentrator Optics (CPV) bankrupt
    Suntech Wuxi (c-Si) bankrupt


Acquisition, sale, restructuring

    Diehl (Germany inverters) inverter division sold to PE firm mutares AG
    ISET (CIGS) moving into "microsolar"
    MiaSolĂ© (CIGS) acquired by China's Hanergy
    Nanosolar (CIGS) restructuring for sale
    NuvoSun (CIGS) acquired by Dow
    Twin Creeks (kerfless Si) acquired by GT Advanced Technology
    Wuerth Solar (installer) business turned over to BayWa
Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: rcjordan on May 12, 2017, 12:28:13 PM
My roofer is currently quoting $2 sq ft turnkey if there is only one layer of old shingles and the pitch is walk-able.

Title: Re: Elon Musk wants to sell you a solar roof...
Post by: ergophobe on May 12, 2017, 02:52:18 PM
Keep in mind this has always been a product intended to compete with premium products, not comp shingles. So you would compare to metal, slate or tile. According to Angie's List, those would be $6-$17/sf assuming a walkable pitch, but could go over $40/sf for high-end tiles

https://www.angieslist.com/articles/real-cost-new-roof.htm

This is a  Tesla S product, not a Model 3 - i.e. not aimed at the bottom or even average consumer.

On another angle, it's the most brilliant lead gen ever - generate massive hype for a product that 99% of consumers can't afford, launch it without pricing, get all kinds of people to ask for quotes, create massive database of people interested in solar. If price comes down or new product launches, market to them.