Soaring online sales reshape retail industry, reduce need for labor
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-and-other-internet-stores-are-so-successful-that-retailers-dont-need-as-many-workers-as-they-used-to-2016-08-17
We really need to start hashing out how capitalism will survive the end of low skill labor.
I once read that if a headline ends in a question mark, the answer is 'no'
Best Buy Turns 50, But Will It Turn 60?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/08/19/best-buy-turns-50-but-will-it-turn-60.aspx
LM has a point! ;D
While Americans are going to be able to choose between two contrasting ideologies [in the next election], what if both choices are off the mark? What if the legitimacy of free market capitalism in America is facing fundamental challenges that the candidates and their parties are not addressing?
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/is-this-the-end-of-market-democracy/?_r=0
"The debate over the workings of democracy, the market, technology and globalization remains unresolved. The political system instinctively avoids this debate, despite its salience and centrality, because the political costs of engagement are likely to substantially outweigh any potential gains. At an undetermined point in the not too distant future, however, as the "gale of creative destruction" blows through the heartland, the debate will become inescapable."
Target cuts outlook as sales decline
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/target-cuts-outlook-as-sales-decline-2016-08-17
I think you hit the nail. Capitalism runs on what is best for business, not what is best for a country or a people. it has served well for the last few decades imho.
But the difference between whats best for business and whats best for the country and so the population are now diverging.
but then I have been twisted by this man :)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Things-They-Dont-About-Capitalism/dp/0141047976
I don't see any current ideology or economic system that is going to work in their current form in a generation.
At the basic level people need food, shelter, medicine, basic hygiene. This isn't enough though to have a stable society, people also need a sense of belonging, purpose and dignity. I think without all those needs taken care of we're heading to an unstable future. That's what I see as the major problem with basic income. It will take care of the first level of need, but does nothing to address the other urges of humanity.
I suppose we are going to have a new global New Deal eventually -- probably fueled by a very progressive tax system. Either that or we're heading to something close to what was in the movie Elysium -- something even people like the Koch brothers would like to avoid.
The intermediate danger is to avoid the rise of radical authoritarian nationalism.
It's funny... I remember a *long* time ago a friend saying "I never thought I'd miss Nixon."
And yet... another idea where he may have been ahead of his time
http://www.alternet.org/economy/how-richard-nixon-almost-gave-america-basic-income-and-why-we-should-do-it-now
I didn't know about that, thanks for the link. Nixon started the EPA too, in some ways he was to the left of many Democrats today.
What is needed is some CRISIS to upend the "world order" and then we can All begin again with an understanding of WTF we did wrong. :o
Quote from: littleman on August 22, 2016, 04:48:59 PM
I didn't know about that, thanks for the link. Nixon started the EPA too, in some ways he was to the left of many Democrats today.
I will say simply that "Tricky Dick" was a crook and his secretary of state was a war criminal (Chile, Argentina, etc). And yet, Nixon...
- Created the EPA. Would the man who created the EPA be making actual progress on climate change? Tough question, but as a minimum he would likely look more like a Democrat than a Republican. Unfortunately, the Democrats don't seem to understand the gravity of the situation either.
- proposed the minimum basic income as linked above even in an age of *falling* inequality. What we he be proposing in our age of rising inequality and much greater absolute inequality (though perhaps lower absolute poverty? Not sure about that).
- pushed a national health policy considerably more "liberal" than Obamacare at a time when far more Americans had employer-based insurance - http://ihpi.umich.edu/news/nixoncare-vs-obamacare-u-m-team-compares-rhetoric-reality-two-health-plans
- Opened relations with China. Kissinger had negotiated in advance, but did you know that the Chinese would not commit to letting Nixon meet with Mao and Nixon felt that if Mao refused to visit with him, the trip would be a failure. Yet he climbed onto a plane to fly to China with no assurance on this score. I cannot imagine a president doing this today for a trip to, say, Iran or North Korea. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/25/books/chapters/0225-1st-macm.html?_r=0
In many respects he was more "Democrat" than many if not most Democrats today.
I basically see Hillary Clinton as the inheritor of Nixon both for good (see above) and ill (paranoia, sense of executive privilege, hawkishness).
Quote from: Rupert on August 21, 2016, 07:30:24 AM
I think you hit the nail. Capitalism runs on what is best for business, not what is best for a country or a people. it has served well for the last few decades imho.
In a short-term view, yes. But from a perspective of planetary sustainability, it has been a disaster by externalizing societal costs allowing profits at the cost of mass extinction, foot-dragging on climate action, habitat destruction and on and on.
Externalities are the Achilles Heel of capitalism. I do think there are free-market solutions: if everyone owned "shares" of the atmosphere, for example, companies would have to pay for those and there would be a market where I could value my atmosphere share at any price I want. With great wealth inequality, though, I would fear how that would work (what would happen to me once I had ruined my atmosphere share?).
Ha Ha!
Quote(what would happen to me once I had ruined my atmosphere share?).
indeed!
Absolutely, capitalism has been a disaster from the global view.... but would we have had the massive technological expansion without capitalism. The tech expansion that is possibly our only hope for the future?
And I am not sure I can realistically see a global view looking deep into the future.... so yuk...
what was that quote Drastic found? here it is:
QuoteWhen viewing the world through rose-coloured glasses, red flags just look like flags.
Or no leaders can see the red... maybe they are still too far away.
And I don't think there is anything remotely resembling a "Free Market" anymore. Every market has controls.
I use that quote all the time now. It is plain genius.
>> tech expansion that is possibly our only hope
It has, of course, been good for the humans who have lived through the past 50 years.
I think, however, that if we had properly priced externalities (or more correctly, if we had internalized them), we would have had similar but different technological progress that would be just as advanced, but advanced on different fronts.
>but does nothing to address the other urges of humanity.
Next phase: Bread and Circuses.
>close to what was in the movie Elysium
Reality follows fiction?
Anti-aging compounds being developed by Elysium Health.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/beyond-resveratrol-the-anti-aging-nad-fad/#
Quote from: Travoli on September 05, 2016, 08:39:45 PM
Next phase: Bread and Circuses.
You made me look up that saying Trav :). We're probably not that far away right now if you look at the combined effect of the entertainment industries.
Ergo, you brought up some very important points.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elysium
QuoteElysium or the Elysian Fields (Ancient Greek: Ἠλύσιον πεδίον, Ēlýsion pedíon) is a conception of the afterlife that developed over time and was maintained by some Greek religious and philosophical sects and cults. Initially separate from the realm of Hades, admission was reserved for mortals related to the gods and other heroes. Later, it expanded to include those chosen by the gods, the righteous, and the heroic, where they would remain after death, to live a blessed and happy life, and indulging in whatever employment they had enjoyed in life.
I suspect that both uses of the name has to do with the concept of a haven for the elite/privileged.
Ergo, great points. Growing up in the 70/80 I thought that democracy and capitalism were basically synonyms, or at least that one required the other. We've seen examples of relatively strong democracies with near socialist economies (the Scandinavian countries). We've also seen extreme capitalistic countries without democracy (modern Vietnam, China). Honestly, I don't see any of that as the answer to these coming challenges. The cynic in me thinks that Trav is right in that the path forward is to keep the population feed and numb with mindless entertainment.
My wife and I took our younger kids to the Jelly Belly factory, it is probably the fifth time I've been through that place in the last 14 years. With every visit they have made jumps in mechanization. This last visit was the first time I saw this machine they called the 'Spider Packer', it could pack boxes with items (neatly) at a blazingly fast rate. That job use to be done by humans before the machine, but this thing could pack candy bags into boxes faster than several people. We all know the robot takeover is coming, but it is something to see it in action.
Here is a clip of a two arm robot (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvzeKcdjGHw), since the video they've installed a third arm to speed up its capacity.
Amazon is going to kill more American jobs than China did
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-is-going-to-kill-more-american-jobs-than-china-did-2017-01-19
Love the title.
Quote from: littleman on August 20, 2016, 02:14:44 AM
We really need to start hashing out how capitalism will survive the end of low skill labor.
Since this thread popped back up, I have to say - we have to stop thinking of automation like this. It's not *low* *skill* labor, it's any labor that involves any of
- repetition
- pattern matching
- prediction
So, for example, by the "low skill" criterion, we would expect medical doctor to be safe, but in fact many specialties will contract and employment prospects for radiologists are just abysmal.
Re-reading this thread I had a glimpse of the human race in its life cycle, from a few animals, to an explosive growth of 7 billion.
The small social hunter/gatherers, fighting with each other occasionally over turf, sexual partners, moving on for more room, then to the industrial revolution, swarming together like hives, to the loss of purpose for the workers....
I cannot see it ending well this morning.
I think I need another cup of coffee to get my head in a better place.
(Added... probably visiting a dementia home yesterday did not help.)
>pattern matching
Bingo!
Aside: Long ago in the pre-internet age, an interviewer asked me how I was able to work in so many seemingly unrelated fields. My answer was "I see I'm good with patterns." He didn't get it.
>medical doctor to be safe, but in fact many specialties will contract
Human pharmacists have been out-performed by robots for about a decade now. We're just protecting them because we're afraid (and job politics), imo.
Quote from: rcjordan on January 20, 2017, 12:23:34 PM
Human pharmacists have been out-performed by robots for about a decade now. We're just protecting them because we're afraid (and job politics), imo.
This has also been true for basic medical diagnosis for years. We would be better off with a technician running a smart system than with an MD pulling from his/her brain in most cases. You could argue that we'd be best off with an MD running a smart system, but the medical profession isn't there yet in their thinking.
Thai hospital set to introduce eight robots at its pharmacies
http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/2079407/thai-hospital-set-introduce-eight-robots-its-pharmacies
OK, so in the UK, we have the highest employment levels for a long time.
We also have the highest number of zero hour contracts. (not sure if this is relevant but it might be)
So if all these jobs keep disappearing... you know where this goes.
It might be interesting to see a graph of the bands of pay, and the number of people in that band and how it changes over time. Whether that pay needs to be normalised for inflation I don't know.
What I think I am trying to say is what is the real human cost? I am not sure it really is loss of jobs, but it might well be personal wealth. I am sure the average is still high, but as we know, the top 5% keep getting more, so perhaps in a Europe and America, the lower half really are getting poorer.
>average is still high
See attached. Average has been falling for a while, not predicted to get back to 2007 levels until 2022.
>what is the real human cost
People in Asia have seen a huge rise in standard of living.
Interesting. The Title says " Average weekly Earnings regular Pay". Am I right in assuming thats hourly paid, so the old blue collar?
Also, Asias growth, what is the cause of that do you think over the last 17 years? Thats a little unexpected to me. I had assumed that the world was hurting in the last 7-9 years.
Overall, thats a good readjustment, the only wrong part from a society POV is the top % in the west getting richer at the expense of the poorer then.
>asia
Fewer kids, for starters
Scroll down to the table Total fertility rates (with projections). Vietnam has dropped from 3.3 to 1.7 over last 25 years.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-39211144
<added>
>asia
[2] Adoption of containerized freight.
[3] Massive access to western markets, primarily due to wage advantage. Factory production first, now straight to retail via internet.
>Am I right in assuming thats hourly paid, so the old blue collar?
I don't think so, I think its just the measurement they decided to go with, I think its everybody.
>Asias growth, what is the cause
Remember I'm not that smart, this is just what I think.
Globalisation exposed the fundamental weaknesses of the western economies and to be frank the western workforce. Or to put it another way we went crazy buying cheap stuff from China, so crazy that we sort of exported our wealth/jobs. We then didn't have enough money to continue going crazy, so we made borrowing super easy. We borrowed money to export our jobs, cool huh?
Thats where we are, what we have failed to do is adapt to this change, I think we need a fundamental reset on what we in the west consider to be poverty.
Maybe the top 1% are to blame, we need attack them, tax them, make them suffer.
If you earn £25,000 a year you are in the top 1%.
So, what happens in the next 20 years? The West borrowed money to the tune of trillions. Much of that debt has been bought up by the Asian tigers. So, at least in part we borrowed money from the same people who we bought stuff from. Now, we're in the beginning of a massive wave of automation. Western currencies are going to fall -- this will in effect lower the value of that debt. Asia will get a greater concentration of wealth at the top, but will it still have the growing standard of living for the common person? How will the export market in Asia continue when the West is financially weaker? I honestly see the debt in the West as a real problem for Asia.
QuoteMaybe the top 1% are to blame, we need attack them, tax them, make them suffer.
I dont believe it's their/our fault, its the societies fault. The structure is not balanced. Which should be balanced better. That probably means Asia will continue to climb, and the west won't. As they learn stability.
As a cross over from the Famine thread, one of the hallmarks of a country with famine, is civil war. Now my understanding is the Civil War comes first.
QuoteSo, at least in part we borrowed money from the same people who we bought stuff from
That is different, but does sound scarily familiar to what has happened between Greece and Germany.
One major difference between the Western debt held by Asia and the Greece-Germany situation is that Germany was able to pressure Greece into compliance. I don't think that there is much of a chance that the lenders in this case will be paid back in full between defaulting and currency pressures.
QuoteI don't think that there is much of a chance that the lenders in this case will be paid back in full between
I think you could be right. But that won't help world peace.
LIST
http://www.jcpnewsroom.com/news-releases/2017/assets/0317_list_of_store_closures.pdf
>> list_of_store_closures
I've been in more than one of those stores. Guess I shoulda spent more!
U.S. retailers gathering at a conference beginning Sunday in Las Vegas will be looking for ways to deal with a problem that has no simple fix: too many stores.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/reach-across-the-aisle-mr-president-1489705420
https://www.wsj.com/articles/retail-store-bubble-has-burst-and-ceos-search-for-answers-1489838402 fixed link
>too many stores
You read it here first.
NEWS TODAY
SEARS Warns of 'Substantial Doubt' About Company's Future...
PAYLESS Filing for Bankruptcy as Soon as Next Week...
>Payless
They were my anchor tenant (for 40 yrs) in the strip mall I dumped at a massive loss last August.
>anchor tenant (for 40 yrs)
>massive loss
....I'm sorry Dave does not compute
>compute
How so?
>massive loss
I sold a strip mall that was had a current appraised value of several million (and a massively over-appraised property tax value even higher) for $500k-ish. I consider myself lucky to get out cash-positive.
I was thinking about this yesterday after reading about Sears. As retail dies, so do retail real estate prices.
How long before it greatly affects commercial RE overall?
>greatly affects commercial RE overall?
I wouldn't call it greatly yet, but it's definitely well on the radar for anyone with a clue. I'm not sure it's hitting dense urban areas yet, though. Some, probably, but shopping dynamics there are quite a bit different due to mass transit, smaller living spaces, etc.
But in small-towns and suburbia, where the ol' mall culture was king, it's starting to bite.
Bebe Reportedly Planning To Close All Its Stores, Focusing On Internet Sales
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2017/03/21/bebe-reportedly-closing-all-its-stores-focusing-on-internet-sales/
I go back to where NFFC said:
"Thats where we are, what we have failed to do is adapt to this change, I think we need a fundamental reset"
He went on but IMFO we need a crash in order to begin AGAIN hopefully having learned by our mistakes.
I'm at meetings in Winnipeg today ... provincial conference for Manitoba credit unions.
One of the speakers made this comment:
"Sears used to have the best catalog system in the world. Somehow they missed the chance to become Amazon."
>begin AGAIN hopefully having learned by our mistakes
You mean like this?
"U.S. consumers racked up $60.4 billion in credit card debt during the fourth quarter of 2016 represents serious cause for concern....
...Our dismal performance also comes on the heels of three equally foreboding financial feats, appearing to solidify an ominous trend. We set the post-2007 Q3 record last quarter, racking up $21.9 billion in new debt, right after adding a Q2-record $34.4 billion to our tab and recording the smallest Q1 pay-down ($27.5 billion) since 2008.
So it is not a question of whether consumers are weakening financially, but rather how long this trend toward pre-recession habits will last and just how bad it will get.
https://wallethub.com/edu/credit-card-debt-study/24400/
The four most depressing reasons why Americans are not saving any money
What are the biggest reasons Americans aren't saving more money? The No. 1 answer: 38% said they had too many expenses, some of which may not be under their control given that wages have remained stagnant in recent years. The next reason is absolutely under their control, however. Some 16.4% of the respondents simply said "they haven't gotten around to it." The third and fourth reasons? Just over 16% said they not having a good enough job and 13% said they were struggling under debt.
Of course, living within one's means is an important part of saving: About two-thirds of American adults don't write out a budget at all and the same percentage of consumers say they would have trouble coming up with an emergency $2,000, according to the New York Federal Reserve in a new survey released Monday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-more-confident-in-their-savings-for-the-first-time-in-six-years-2017-03-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
I rest my case.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-retail-apocalypse-has-officially-descended-on-america-2017-3
A graph to Illustrate
15 Big Losers From When Sears Eventually Dies
Stupid link below makes you click 13 times >:(
1) Appliances
2) Clothing
Quote from: Mackin USA on March 27, 2017, 01:24:35 PM
1) Appliances
Do people buy fewer appliances because they can't buy them at Sears? I don't sit around thinking, "Boy, I'd better buy that washer before the Oakhurst Sears goes out of business." Rather, as I drive to Fresno to go to Lowes, I think "Hmm... I wonder if I could have saved 40 minutes of driving and gone to that Sears in Oakhurst?"
I get your point re general appliances but -on items or features where there was discretion to have or upgrade- think they bought more when they absolutely, 100% trusted the Kenmore brand to last. I bought Kenmore because it had proven to itself to me to be rock-solid. Would I forego replacing a dishwasher? No. Would I be more likely to buy an unnecessary counter-top icemaker if old-stalwart Kenmore made one at a competitive price? Probably.
Similarly, I'm certain they did when buying tools under the Craftsman brand with the lifetime warranty. (I did not buy Craftsman, as warranties don't mean jack to me -my time is too valuable to p##s away a half-day getting a tool replaced.)
>>does not compute
>I consider myself lucky to get out cash-positive.
I think that was what NFFC was probably referring to. You did well for a very long time and sold when the conditions changed.
>living within one's means is an important part of saving
That could be very hard on the ego.
>Appliances
After buying four washing machines in the last 16 years I got tired of throwing money away and bought a 30 year old one off of Craigslist for $20.
Quote"U.S. consumers racked up $60.4 billion in credit card debt during the fourth quarter of 2016 represents serious cause for concern....
I think for some the reasoning goes like this:
"Well if I am up to my eyes in debt, and the future looks so gloomy, borrowing more is not going to make it worse. If "they" take everything, then I might as well have a new car until they do". And it might never happen.....
I am sure I see this mentality in the UK. And I see so many couples who each approach this differently. The girls view always seems to win :)
>> Maybe the top 1% are to blame, we need attack them, tax them, make them suffer.
Public HANGINGS
>> That could be very hard on the ego.
Many households would be in better shape if ego drove fewer spending decisions.
Make "impress other people" less of a reason to spend.
That, plus reining in our "finance everything" mentality.
>Payless
Filed. To close 400 stores asap.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-payless-bankruptcy-idUSKBN1762VF
Next in the slaughterhouse chute; Staples
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-staples-m-a-idUSKBN1761P6
Another graph
Retail Pain Is Plain in March Jobs Report
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/retail-pain-plain-march-jobs-report-n743901
America's Retailers Are Closing Stores Faster Than EverQuote"I don't know how many malls can reinvent themselves."
and the pain could be just beginning. More than 10 percent of U.S. retail space, or nearly 1 billion square feet, may need to be closed, converted to other uses or renegotiated for lower rent in coming years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/stores-are-closing-at-a-record-pace-as-amazon-chews-up-retailers
Debbie says they're in denial, it's going to be
more like 30% in the mid-term when this shakes out, with an even higher percentage having to renegotiate lower rents.
GMTA! I just came here to post that exact article. :)
I feel like I've been seeing articles about how retail space per capita in the US is at historic highs and therefore a bubble ready to burst since BEFORE the 2008 downturn.
That's the hard thing about bubbles - you know they have to pop, but sometimes they float along for much longer than you expect. You would have thought with the tightening of consumer credit post-2008, this bubble would have long since popped.
QuoteLast week, Mr. Batkin got a call from a landlord looking to refinance his shopping center with a 10-year loan. Mr. Batkin passed on the deal because it was too difficult to predict what might happen to occupancy in the property 10 years from now.
-- https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/15/business/retail-industry.html?_r=0
That, more than anything, should scare traditional retailers. Basically, money is drying up because banks don't believe you have a future which sounds like a death spiral.
And this from the same article
QuoteMore workers in general merchandise stores have been laid off since October, about 89,000 Americans. That is more than all of the people employed in the United States coal industry, which President Trump championed during the campaign as a prime example of the workers who have been left behind in the economic recovery.
Based on the pace so far, Credit Suisse estimates retailers will close more than 8,600 locations this year, eclipsing the number of closings during the 2008 recession.
Nice summary as to why retail is taking the hit in America.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/?utm_content=buffer5e620&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Many things are not so true in that article:
"GDP has been growing for eight straight years"
Very sick GDP growth
Excellent summary article. They must read here.
http://www.npr.org/2017/05/02/526560158/a-rapid-shakeup-for-retailers-as-consumer-habits-change
"The disruption is just unfolding," says Mark Cohen, a former CEO of Sears Canada who now directs retail studies at Columbia Business School. "I think the number of store closings will continue at an accelerated pace right through this year into next year."
My friends @ CBRE are hurting FOR SURE
Now online shopping is everyone's boogieman...
New Coca-Cola CEO Blames Online Shopping For Sales Declinehttps://consumerist.com/2017/05/10/new-coca-cola-ceo-blames-online-shopping-for-sales-decline/
<added>
Abercrombie & Fitch failing
https://consumerist.com/2017/05/10/abercrombie-puts-for-sale-sign-on-its-bared-chiseled-chest/
Understand The Retail Apocalypse With One Giant Chart
One company is eating everyone's lunch
The retail apocalypse has everyone talking. If you thought it was bad before, it just got even worse. Macy's is currently trading at its lowest levels since 2010. But the entire sector has been getting demolished.
https://medium.com/stocktwits/understand-the-retail-apocalypse-with-one-giant-chart-f9ce4434aa70
I think this article has already come up here, but in addition to Amazon, the article notes
- new types of online purchasing - Warby Parker, Casper, etc. And in fact, my last two pair of glasses came from Warby Parker and my last two mattresses were "online-only" buys (Saatva and Overstock.com).
- but here's the big one that people have been talking about for a decade
QuoteThe number of malls in the U.S. grew more than twice as fast as the population between 1970 and 2015, according to Cowen and Company's research analysts. By one measure of consumerist plentitude—shopping center "gross leasable area"—the U.S. has 40 percent more shopping space per capita than Canada, five times more the the U.K., and 10 times more than Germany.
And...
QuoteBefore the Great Recession, people bought a lot of stuff, like homes, furniture, cars, and clothes, as retail grew dramatically in the 1990s. But something big has changed. Spending on clothes is down—its share of total consumer spending has declined by 20 percent this century. What's up? Travel is booming. Hotel occupancy is booming.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/
As Store Layoffs Mount, Retail Lags Other Sectors In Retraining Workers
http://www.npr.org/2017/05/23/528489507/as-store-layoffs-mount-retail-lags-other-sectors-in-retraining-workers
What part of 'disposable' don't they understand?
One of the pet ideas of neoliberalism is to encourage "labor market flexibility" which is code for letting companies fire employees on a whim. The problem is that a quick to hire, quick to fire posture is not a terribly sound idea. It takes a lot of time and effort to hire and train people (yes, Virginia, even a skilled employee needs to learn the quirks of how his employer likes things done), so firing people casually means a loss of this investment. Export powerhouse Germany has not been competitively impaired by its restrictions on terminating employees. But while some businesses actually believe the HR trope that "employees are our most important asset", most, to adopt an image from Robert Oak at the Economic Populist, treat them as disposables.
Posted on February 18, 2013 by Yves Smith
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com
>disposable
Expert and/or automated systems -particularly accounting & point-of-sale- have relegated humans to 'attendant' status. Just get a new one, give them the operating instructions, and plug them in. Over a period of about 10 years, we did this with the receptionist position at the real estate company.
Quote from: Mackin USA on May 23, 2017, 11:40:23 AM
code for letting companies fire employees on a whim
Funny you should say that. I've been hearing people say a lot lately that they have trouble recruiting. I say, "Well, you're not offering enough money."
Invariably, they say something like "We already offer $2/hr more than our competitors."
To which I say, "What part of 'free market' don't you understand?"
In other words, I find myself encountering more and more people who extol the free market when it means they can fire at will, but are completely baffled at the fact that they are unable to hire labor at the price they want. People say "I simply won't pay $20/hr for a dishwasher. That's unskilled labor" and I say, "Well you better get some rubber gloves and an apron."
>"What part of 'free market' don't you understand?"
The flip side of the free market is how I came to determine that receptionists were disposable IF the systems we needed them to attend could be distilled and documented sufficiently. EVERY time we ran an ad for the position, we were swamped with applicants --so many that Louise had to have them pre-screened by the current receptionist who'd given notice. They kept raising the bar on the screening requirements (all legal, non-discriminatory stuff) but they still poured out of the woodwork. SO, I nuked longevity raises and offered minimum wage with no chance of a raise. What we DID offer was to help them further their education or skillset so they could get a better job elsewhere. Louise 'raised' a couple of nurses, bookkeepers, para-legals, etc. with this set-up.
That's the thing. Especially post-recession, these managers got used to a hiring market where people were desperate for jobs. Now people are pickier and the hiring managers don't realize that they need more incentive (and education help is a great one, as is health insurance, etc).
The other part of this, is we were in Truckee for the weekend. There is no affordable housing. The *mayor* had to move out of town because his lease was up on his apartment and he could not afford anything within the city limits. Almost every store we saw had a Help Wanted sign. But they are paying $12, maybe $15/hr for retail positions, while you pretty much can't find, say, a one-bedroom apartment for under $2500/month (and even at that cost, it's hard). We were pondering a "sabbatical" there and found some apartments that seemed reasonably priced... until we realized they were quoting by the week.
Meanwhile, people were desperate to find snow shovelers and shovelers were asking $45/hr. People complained, said "Snow shoveling should only cost $15/hr" and that it was ridiculous and they wouldn't pay it to have their 3000sf ski "cabin" shoveled out so when they arrived from San Francisco in their BMW, they could walk straight in. "Fine," said the snow shovelers, "It's a free market. Hire all the people you can at $15/hr."
The quip that's going around ski towns now is that there's a division between the people with two jobs and the people with two houses.
So a minimum living wage in Truckee for someone who didn't manage to buy their home 10 years ago is probably $30/hr. Of course, at that wage, retail prices go way up and everyone buys online and the death spiral begins.
I feel like it is yet another place where we are approaching a tipping point in our society. I suspect the endpoint is that all jobs in Truckee will pay a lot and there will be very few jobs. Clearly, at $30-$40/hr for a retail clerk, stores are going to automate and probably just accept more customer theft because it's cheaper to get the occasional item stolen than to hire at prevailing wages.
I fear that the "solution" to this will take the form of something rather bad.
As a means of psychological preparation, I just read Grapes of Wrath...
>stores are going to automate and probably just accept more customer theft because it's cheaper to get the occasional item stolen than to hire at prevailing wages.
...or close the bricks and just sell online. I just discussed this scenario this past weekend. We had a large, regional hardware store chain close its store here in town. Their location was within walking distance of cracktown. One of their managers said that shoplifting broke them.
Fitch essentially predicts that well-located malls - calculated by their proximity to population density plus the per capita income of that region - will prosper in the future as distribution and pickup centers for e-commerce retailers like Amazon (AMZN)
Or parking lots for Uber drivers...
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14154385/1/malls-of-the-future-may-be-nothing-more-than-giant-parking-lots-for-uber-drivers-and-amazon-workers.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
More Sears and Kmart stores to close.
https://www.aol.com/article/finance/2017/06/06/sears-is-closing-72-stores-heres-the-full-list/22129468/
Grocery stores are moving into dying suburban shopping malls to save them
"Food retail is one thing helping struggling malls survive," June Williamson , an architecture professor at the City College of New York and an author of "Retrofitting Suburbia," tells Business Insider.
Kroger, the nation's largest grocer with nearly 4,000 locations, recently purchased a former Macy's at Kingsdale Shopping Center in Upper Arlington, Ohio for $10.5 million, not long after the department store announced it would close the 45-year-old location. 365 by Whole Foods (a smaller, more economical version of the well-known chain) will open at College Mall in Bloomington, Indiana in late 2017, according to Indiana Public Media.
And Wegmans Food Market is moving into a former JC Penney at the Natick Mall in Massachusetts. The shop is set to open in in 2018. The grocer decided to move into the mall because the vacant department store has a large square footage, a loading dock, high ceilings, and ample parking, Wegmans spokesperson Valerie Fox told Business Insider. The mall's location, near a number of housing developments, is also convenient for shoppers.
http://www.businessinsider.com/grocery-stores-malls-2017-7
>shoplifting... ...close the bricks and just sell online
"one of the latest mob retail thefts"
3 held after smash-and-grab theft at Los Angeles luxury mall - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/held-smash-grab-theft-los-angeles-luxury-mall-81351683
Looks like our coming Mad Max society is starting in California after a few test runs in Chicago.
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BTW, the '1.2 million' in the thread title was low.
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Lots on this in my feeds today
Retailers Sound Alarm on Organized Theft as States Warn of Rise - BNN Bloomberg (interesting stats)
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/retailers-sound-alarm-on-organized-theft-as-states-warn-of-rise-1.1686207
The Rise In Retail Thefts Is Hurting More Than Just Best Buy's Wallet
https://www.ibtimes.com/rise-retail-thefts-hurting-more-just-best-buys-wallet-3343750