2016:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/HERMINE/track.gif
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_plot_nt1.gif
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_plot_nt4.gif
Jet stream might save us, yet again. Too soon to call, though.
Don't think the hurricane will hit us directly but there should be a lot of wind and rain here. And it wouldn't take too much for a 50 mile shift West. If that happens we are screwed here in Jacksonville.
forecast = 110 mph while off Jax. You should be OK unless you're in a flood-prone area. Jax Beach or St Aug ...not so good.
We are about 18 miles from the coast so no real danger of flooding or anything. Mostly just expecting a lot of rain and wind.
Be wary of any large bodies of water to the
northeast (and east, but less so) of you. The water will the banked up by the wind, there will be a storm surge but 18mi inland will not see it unless there is a lot of open water --as in, southwest of the St Johns inlet.
<added>
Orange Park will probably flood
https://www.google.com/maps/place/4015+Marianna+Rd,+Jacksonville,+FL+32217/@30.2533916,-81.6301053,13.25z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x88e5c9f1e317096d:0xdaf3e8e489bd687!8m2!3d30.242778!4d-81.614247 is where we are. Far enough away from the inlet. Far enough up river that I don't think that will be a problem.
I hope you guys stay nice and dry. Lets hope it stays off land.
There is no water in the supermarkets down here. Empty shelves where batteries, and flashlights were. Canned food section is decimated. Beer stores, Ace hardware, packed.
But the forecasts are delaying landfall. Now it's something like 2am Friday and a day or so ago, it was supposed to hit tonight.
We'll see.
Map tools show the eye 180 miles from F Lauderdale at around 6am this morning, DB. Looks like it'll be clocking in at 130mph when it passes over you at approx midnight tonight. Worse, it's a slow grinder --moving very slowly along its path. Even Cat 1s do a lot of damage here when they just sit and grind away. I'm thinking your infrastructure -roads, power- may be out for a good while. Consider evacuating.
Wow, coming straight in:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Yesterday, when she first saw the sharp hook develop, Debbie whispered that it might be doing an offshore loop-de-loop off S Carolina
and heading back to open another can of whup-ass. She's seen it happen a couple of times where we get hit on the 2nd pass.
Long-range forecasts are now backing Debbie up. Might be back in Jax region in another week. Sorry, doc.
<added>
working oceanfront cam in F Laud
https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1284997099-Birch-Ocean-Front
Yeah, first burst of wind just blew through 15 mins ago.
Thanks for your insight, rc. Keep it coming.
You staying, DB? If so, stock up on protein sources, even if you have to get the powdered stuff from health stores. Run a bathtub full of fresh water, add a light splash of bleach. Move your vehicles to higher ground.
<added>
Check the baking aisle for bags of nuts. Stay away from carbs as much as possible, they'll just make you hungry while you wait for the power to return.
<added>
Charge all of your devices. Text & cell will be the most likely to work during/after --but you're going to need those batteries.
>Move your vehicles to higher ground.
In Miami that basically means an above ground parking structure I'd think.
Water is at the top of the docks, in my neighborhood.
Can't upload images because software only accepts jpg and not jpeg:-/
>docks
You're only in the gale stages. Expect as much as 20 feet higher.
Already have one car in a garage at the mall. And another one as high up as I can find on the property.
We are loaded for bear.
8-9pm landfall
What type of structure? Condo? If so, what floor? Free-standing house?
About 70% of property damage is initiated by blowing outdoor articles --patio furniture, picnic tables, signs, etc. You can't do much about your neighbors (though I have, on occassion) but get your stuff inside or on a lee wall, if possible. Lash down what you can.
<added>
If you have any battery-driven power tools, charge them.
10th floor in a 16 floor building, in the first high rise down here, build in late 50s, back when they overbuilt things. It's an L shaped concrete building, we live in the inside corner. It was also xrayed in the last 2years and had some major restoration dome to bring every up to speed.
I have one ocean facing side, with hurricane shutters on the inside of the railing, so my balcony is empty but protected. Then we have 18' of hurricane glass doors, 5' behind that.
On the West side, I have hurricane windows (taped) in the bathroom and kitchen and hurricane glass door, that opens outward.
Alright. Sounds good.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Ll4ENoKZL3o/UI_9Am_xcuI/AAAAAAAAN90/z4G4ukcBTKg/w497-h373/Typhoon%2BWinds%2BBlows%2BCar%2BAway.gif
When the water recedes watch out for snakes. They'll be on anything that was sticking out of the water.
First person shooter...
http://ftlauderdalewebcam.com
http://ftlauderdalewebcams.com
...tune in later
My sites say that you're going to miss the very worst of it, DB. It's coming ashore around Sebastian. This puts F Laud getting the weaker quadrants. In a northbound hurricane (in the northern hemisphere) the strongest quadrants will be on its east side, with the northeast one being the strongest. Still a strong storm, though, no matter what side you're on.
Yeah it's off shore now and it's a non event here, ATM.
Definitely a big storm, but looks like it is going to miss us clean, despite how it looks on radar.
Looking like it will be about 30 miles offshore here in Jacksonville. A bit too close for comfort. I was looking yesterday and all hotels in about a 250 mile radius anywhere West of here are booked up. 450,000 people evacuated in the area.
Doc, my data says the eye will pass over the intracoastal waterway just west of Jax Beach. Plotting it, the center of the eye will pass 13 miles to the east of your above address at 8pm. The good news is that the Jax evac map shows you to be in one of the higher areas.
Quote from: rcjordan on October 07, 2016, 12:34:14 AM
Doc, my data says the eye will pass over the intracoastal waterway just west of Jax Beach. Plotting it, the center of the eye will pass 13 miles to the east of your above address at 8pm. The good news is that the Jax evac map shows you to be in one of the higher areas.
Yeah, no real danger of flooding here. There is only one big tree that would do any significant structural damage but I don't think that one is going anywhere. There are a couple others that could reach the house but it would be the very top of the tree and they aren't very big at all. So I don't think there is any huge physical danger where I am at. Losing power would suck but we have enough food, water, batteries to last a couple days. If power will be out any longer than that we will get out of here. 3 young children with no power would be a zoo.
Keep using The Force, doc. My plotting now shows the center 46 mi east of you at 5pm-ish.
We are still doing well here. There is some flooding happening at the beach with waves crashing over the dunes and onto the roads but we are fine here. Just lots of wind and rain so far. Some friends had a tree go through their roof and some others have lost power.
Looks like the bad stuff is past us. Took a quick walk around the neighborhood this evening and saw a number of big trees down and a couple cars crushed. Lots of people without power but luckily we haven't lost power yet. Internet is out though. All in all we came out of this as good as can be expected.
Good to hear you are OK. Sounds like Haiti had it very rough..... again....
Good to hear that the BAD $HIT has past. :o
Good news, doc. Thanks for the update.
<added>
Uh-oh, you FL guys might starve with THE life-support route into your state severed, hhh.
I-95 closed between Ridgeland and Hardeeville, SC. Forecast for rain along I-95 corridor through the Carolinas is around 12" over the next 36 hours.
The situation around Jax is already critical:
https://i.reddituploads.com/8f79f4b3603e41c792ab12981e3fd526?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=1f4a49e437b69df0af993e3d1f7ae1bb
Quote from: rcjordan on October 08, 2016, 12:53:13 PM
<added>
Uh-oh, you FL guys might starve with THE life-support route into your state severed, hhh.
I-95 closed between Ridgeland and Hardeeville, SC. Forecast for rain along I-95 corridor through the Carolinas is around 12" over the next 36 hours.
The situation around Jax is already critical:
https://i.reddituploads.com/8f79f4b3603e41c792ab12981e3fd526?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=1f4a49e437b69df0af993e3d1f7ae1bb
The grocery store shelves were pretty light this morning. Heard I-95 was closed in parts of Georgia as well.