Trump was born in 1946; Clinton, '47. There's nothing inherently wrong with a candidate's age, provided he or she remains plugged into the cultural zeitgeist and capable of learning what people two generations younger know. Neither Clinton nor Trump, however, seems interested in learning about the digital economy that will dominate the lives of their grandkids. Grab a hardhat, or get left behind.
https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/clinton-and-trump-are-debating-about-the-economy-like-its-1996-114649869.html
The second and third graphs are so critical and just support what is becoming a tired saw in this forum because it's so obvious, but is inutterable on the campaign trail
I've had similar thoughts in vague terms all throughout the debate. Yes, manufacturing is coming back to America eventually... and when it does there will be hardly any people in those factories. I suspect Clinton knows it, but is afraid to say so because saying that loudly would be the same as giving away the election (witness what happened after her comments on coal mining). I suspect Trump would be unafraid to say so (what is he afraid to say?), except he doesn't have a clue this is happening.
Yeah, this ties right into the terminator scenario thread. We are heading toward job extinction and the politics have not caught up yet. It is easier in the short run to blame the Mexicans than robots.
Anyone care to guess which presidential election year will guaranteed basic income become a top issue? 2024? 2032?
I'm thinking 2024.
That sounds a bit socialist for good ol' Uncle Sam
Yeah, I agree. It goes very much against the core of traditional American values. Yet, I think there will be a tipping point where we'll basically be forced to make a choice between anarchy, a totalitarian state or massive subsidies for the unemployed. I think of the three choices some socialism would be the easiest to live with.
I think it's too big of an adjustment to be taken seriously already in 2024. I mean, the US can't even take single payer healthcare seriously and issues that are completely non-controversial and settled elsewhere remain deeply fought here.
I think it will take a moment like 1929-1932, when America came as close as it ever has until now to tipping anarchic and totalitarian. But I hope very much that I am wrong and will take whatever action I can to ensure that I'm wrong!
What LM said
PLUS
"I think it will take a moment like 1929-1932"
Just keep your EYE on the worlds Central Banks.
The moment is near. Debt Bubble to BURST.
but have a nice day! ;)
I keep harping about the "Amazon Effect" (add to that 'work at home') on commercial real estate but, imo, it's already kicked in and has eroded rents and the prospective tenant pool noticeably -if not significantly. My town's storefronts seem half-empty.... Walmart is admitted struggling to maintain marketshare.... We only need so many trendy bistros and coffee shops in the commercial districts.
<added>
Reminder: We were dead-on-target in the 'Housing Apocalypse' thread and ignored it.
SMART MONEY heading for the hills.
https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-investors-withdrew-28-133728941.html
I agree it could be 2024 if we're in a recession (the new QE goes straight to citizens?), or 2032-2040 if caused by automation of jobs.
Trav:
That is helicopter money
The original idea of helicopter money describes central banks making payments straight to individuals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money
Quote from: Mackin USA on October 21, 2016, 10:15:53 AM
"I think it will take a moment like 1929-1932"
Just keep your EYE on the worlds Central Banks.
The moment is near. Debt Bubble to BURST.
but have a nice day! ;)
As I say: I really hope I'm wrong (and you're wrong) about this. I am generally a strong optimist... but I make exceptions. I just hope this is an exception I'm making from fear and prejudice, not reason (I have no evidence).
>We were dead-on-target in the 'Housing Apocalypse' thread and ignored it.
Not me, we went to cash before the crash and bought up at the bottom. I didn't have much of a savings, but it made a huge difference for me personally as I avoided the dive and still got to ride the rebound.
Are you back in cash yet LM?
Partially ATM.
I also expected the housing crash way in advance. I didn't know about toxic assets and all that, but all the signs were there. At the time, I had few enough assets that there wasn't much for me to do except sit on cash, so it was mostly an intellectual exercise (I was sitting on quite a bit of debt and was secretly hoping for runaway inflation).
Now things are quite different for me. I just got in from a run and while out was thinking about whether I'm stupid to be sitting on so much cash (at least relative to my total assets). I raised the question in Mr Mackin's other thread (helicopter money) - if there's massive QE, is cash a safe haven? If not, what is?
[edit: I know there's a substantial crowd here that will say "gold" or "silver" - I've never owned any of either, not even in my teeth]
>gold silver
I'd say keep some gold and silver assets but not the whole farm. Remember the US gov't outlawed individuals owning gold (except jewelry) during the Great Depression.
But yeah, I've been thinking about silver coins myself
#prepper
I did not know that...
"Frederick Barber Campbell (who was actually convicted under the Gold Reserve Act's predecessor, Executive Order 6102), was convicted of hoarding gold when he tried to withdraw 5,000 troy ounces of gold he had at Chase National bank."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act
Gold coins are a way to store value in a small, easily portable form factor but precisely because of the high value it might be difficult to use them in time of need. How to buy supplies if the grocer can't make change for a Maple Leaf, for instance?
If you buy gold coins you're making a bet that the world will remain normal enough that you could get fair value if you wanted to cash them in.
Silver coins would be more practical for actual spending, assuming you were dealing with someone who understood their value. The downside of silver coins is that for the same value, they'd be much, much heavier than gold.
IMHO the first precious metals to invest in are good tools. Quality tools, for a variety of needs ... and skills to go with them.
For the same price I could buy a few silver coins, a pretty sterling teaspoon, a good Swiss army knife or a cast-iron pot good for cooking things over a campfire. Each would be useful in its own way and I want some of each!
buckworks posts da TRUTH
Food is your best bet in times of Colossal Collapse.
beprepared.com/annual-stock-up-sale?
SPAM Properly handled and stored they will last decades. ;D
Fortunately I like Spam.
>> Food is your best bet in times of Colossal Collapse.
Along with that, make sure you have provision for water that's safe to drink. Lack of water will do you in faster than lack of food.
We're so used to being able to turn the tap that we take water for granted and many survival supply lists I've seen don't even mention it.
A good water filter would be worth more than gold.
Is this a prepper thread? I LOVE prepper threads!
Hijack!
I dunno what to say.. a lot of folks here thinks that the whole US election and judicial system is a huge joke. Huge joke and we're appalled that the americans can even consider putting one of the two candidates in the white house. How the hell did it come that far?
I think the World's view on the US has fallen dramatically the last year. Most of us used to listen but now it's like... what ever.. it's all lies and bs.
Oh, and watching US tv for the last week in Vegas, my view didn't get any better. The shit you guys get away with in terms of political, drug and insurance ads is beyond me. I can usually take a lot, but I was kind of shocked.
I'm sure you going to miss Obama.
>> Is this a prepper thread? I LOVE prepper threads!
Then let's start a proper prepper thread. With the state of the world these days, it makes good sense to think about such things.
>> the World's view on the US has fallen dramatically the last year
Yes, and it was already sagging long before this election cycle started.
I think the mainstream media have a lot to answer for, starting with how much free publicity they gave Trump early in the campaign. Trump would get all over the news for something stupid, while other contenders with serious and sensible things to say were barely mentioned.
I was reading a bit about the huge DDOS attacks yesterday, and a lot of commenters (took with a grain of salt) were insistent it was some kind of false flag operation to blame Russia and intended to swindle the election in Clinton's favour.
>With the state of the world these days
It does make me wonder where things are headed. Given the lack of co-operation between countries at times... I was thinking that each rich country should pair up with a developing one and make it their mission to prosper. Climate change could've been a good global cause for everyone to believe in but apparently that's another smokescreen :).
Well, things are a bit IFFY
I'm not Nouriel Roubini aka Dr. Doom but I read him.
I do think it is important to be ready for any eventuality.
Hope for the best & plan for the worst.
buckworks has a point...
> prepper thread
I can see two types of Prepper threads:
1. Soft Prepper - breakdown in global trade, shortages that are not life threatening but change lifestyle. Breakdown in trust in financial institutions . At it's worse the soft prepper scenario is a bit like what happened to the Russians after the fall of the USSR or the Great Depression. Life and govt still clanks on but there are big disruptions in jobs, currency, finances, ownership, pensions etc.
2. Hard Prepper - real dramatic breakdown in govt and civil order. Like giant solar electromagnetic pulse scenario that RC talked about previously. Food, fuel, water, services shortages that could threaten life and health.
Agree:
1) Breakdown of Financial Systems etc.
then
2) Civil Disorder brought on by 1) MAYBE
I any event let buckworks OR rc start the threads.
>I dunno what to say.. a lot of folks here thinks that the whole US election and judicial system is a huge joke. Huge joke and we're appalled that the americans can even consider putting one of the two candidates in the white house. How the hell did it come that far?
I'm breaking a Core rule, but I'm 100% with you on this. Trump is utter garage. Hillary, well Trump is just about the only person she could defeat.
>US tv
At least very few people are actually watching it.
>Prep
This guys stuff is great:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAL3JXZSzSm8AlZyD3nQdBA
But seriously, I think living as a soft prepper makes sense: keep debt low, own tangible assets.
Soft Prep Essential items:
5 Gallon Heavy Duty Mylar Bags with 2000cc Oxygen Absorbers
No need to buy the prepackaged food products.
I can't watch American news. It's all listen to NPR, BBC or watch DW, France 24, or NHK for me. I read the paper because local govt is important but for national news AP has gone downhill.
>Trump is utter garage. Hillary, well Trump is just about the only person she could defeat.
6 one way, half-dozen the other. Can't stand either one. I can't believe a third party is not at least somewhat viable in the current scenario. It'll never happen if not now, imo.
>1. Soft Prepper
>2. Hard Prepper
I think 1) happening then possibly leading to 2) is most likely. Seems that the current focus on "what" you'll have overshadowing "where" you'll have it is a mistake.
"what" you'll have overshadowing "where" you'll have it is a mistake.
TRUE, if you live in a metro area.
PS: As Y'all know, I have NO political views ;D
I'll WRITE IN this year.
Seeing how this is turning into an omnibus economics/politics thread I'll go ahead and put the latest CGP Grey video here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs). It is the best one yet. Looks like I need to add The Dictator's Handbook to my reading list.
>>I'm breaking a Core rule, but I'm 100% with you on this.
Good Lord save me! Now I can't stop my fingers from typing ;-)
Since this seems to be an anything goes thread now...
>>CGP Grey
I think you've recommended him before (maybe the "Humans Need Not Apply" vid in the Terminator thread?), but I just watched a few of his videos. He's a great explainer. The video you linked pretty much nails what happened in the Republican primaries this year and what almost happened in the Democratic primaries. Trump and Sanders peeled off disaffected "keys" and Trump got enough of them (largely because of the huge field) while Sanders didn't (because of the small field).
>>Water
I've got more water filters and portables stoves than I'll use this lifetime. I'm not worried about the one-week infrastructure failure. I just spent the last week with no electricity, plumbing or cell reception.
If there's full global collapse, no diversity of assets is going to help very much. So my question was in reference to long-term strategies assuming perturbation, but not collapse.
>>Most of us used to listen
Now that comes as a surprise. When I first went to France in the 1980s, I would still get picked up hitchhiking by people who would thank me for liberating their country in 1944 and so many cities had an Avenue Kennedy, Quai Wilson or a Boulevard Roosevelt. By the mid-1990s, I never encountered that again. I thought most Europeans had stopped listening by then. In any case, I don't see a Rue Reagan or a Chemin Obama coming any time soon. Certainly not Rue Bush (either one) and most Swiss I know always sound half-mocking when they speak of "Beel" (aka Mr Clinton) with an odd smile and wink. I haven't spent as much time there during the Obama years, so perhaps Euros started listening again for a while?
>>whole US election and judicial system is a huge joke
It was one thing to be in Switzerland during the Bush years and trying to explain my country to baffled Swiss people. I wouldn't even know where to start today.
I once swore that I would never vote for Hillary under any circumstances. I just could not foresee *these* circumstances. We have not been so close to losing the republic since 1864 IMO. In 1933, much of the country was strongly behind Roosevelt seizing dictatorial powers - Walter Lipmann, New York Papers, sitting senators, and countless letter writers suggested that the president seize dictatorial powers. Roosevelt demurred [links below]. I have no faith that Mr Trump would make the same choice in a crisis.
Democracy is fragile and people don't realize what they are flirting with when voting for an authoritarian who thinks that it's okay to threaten journalists, judges and political opponents with violence, jail and the wrath of government agencies sicked on his enemies (yes, Nixon and Roosevelt and perhaps others did so, but they had the good sense to try to keep it secret rather than campaigning on it as policy), that it's okay to incite supporters to violence, that it's a good strategy to call into question the integrity of elections before a vote is even cast. The latter is the scariest. It is the Big Lie strategy of this campaign - if he wins, he's the hero who overcame that corruption; if he loses, it's proof that he was right and the presidency must be seized by other means. This is so dangerous.
We were tremendously lucky in 1933 that we had a Roosevelt in power, someone who understood how fragile the republic really is. A man of authoritarian bent in those times would have taken the path of Mussolini.
Quote
A visitor — unidentified in the press — came to him not long after the Inauguration and told him, "Mr. President, if your program succeeds, you'll be the greatest president in American history. If it fails, you will be the worst one." "If it fails," the new president replied, "I'll be the last one." (quoted in The Defining Moment, by Jonathan Alter)
Links on Roosevelt and the day the US flirted with dictatorship
- http://www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/archives/pdfs/dictatorship.pdf
- http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5525748
THAT SAID...
WASH POST PAGE ONE MONDAY: Once the hope candidate, Obama in his final days faces hopeless electorate...
We need change in DC.
Quote from: Mackin USA on October 31, 2016, 10:00:48 AM
We need change in DC.
We need *improvement* in DC. Unfortunately, I don't see any signs of that on the horizon.
Here are a few changes I'd like:
reinstate Glass Steagal
change the presidency to one term for 6 years
a 180 on Citizens United
national voting holiday & automatic registration to vote
UK style campaign window
Those are good ones. I'm not sure about the one-term presidency (haven't thought about it really), but the others sound good.
I'll add three
- take districting out of the hands of the parties (I think over a dozen states have done so already)
- assign congressional offices and seating alphabetically rather than by party or seniority
- general election is a face-off between top two vote getters in the primaries, regardless of party as California now does for state offices.
Those things would, I think, have a moderating influence on politics. Compromise has become a dirty word in Washington, but compromise and diplomacy are nice alternatives to intransigence and war. When a leader of one party says that under no circumstances will they approve a Supreme Court nominee from the other party, that's just broken beyond broken. And I'm not actually trying to blame one person there who is under great pressure from colleagues and constituents to take that stance, but just pointing to a broken system.
>I'm not sure about the one-term presidency (haven't thought about it really)
This is a big one for me. The last 2 years off their first term is focused on getting re-elected. Last 6 months to a year of the second term is about getting the next party candidate in. So, we effectively have 5 to 5 1/2 years of actual focus on the job during an 8 year period.