The Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: littleman on November 09, 2016, 06:31:52 AM

Title: Wow
Post by: littleman on November 09, 2016, 06:31:52 AM
Nov. 9 is going to be a rough day.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ukgimp on November 09, 2016, 09:30:33 AM
Might be a good day to avoid social media. It won't benefit you one bit, everything will still be the same.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ukgimp on November 09, 2016, 09:31:01 AM
Bitcoin and Gold are on the up though.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Brad on November 09, 2016, 10:56:12 AM
If stocks crash, buy?
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Chunkford on November 09, 2016, 11:13:28 AM
It's not very dramatic on the exchange rate front ☹️
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: littleman on November 09, 2016, 05:52:00 PM
I'm surprised, I thought I'd wake up to 1000+ point drop on the Dow.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ergophobe on November 09, 2016, 07:09:54 PM
I thought I would wake up to a rise in the Dow regardless of the result. Theresa floated the idea of making our IRA contribution last ngiht. The markets hate uncertainty. So healthcare and defense stocks rose and pulled the market up. Makes sense.

So glad I deactivated my Facebook account. I might reactivate now that the election is over, but I need to wait at least a few more weeks

I managed to depress one friend already just by text msg... Given her profile, I thought she knew all about what a Trump election would mean for the Paris Convention and the Marakesh Conference. What I find troubling is that a person with a young child and who is deeply into sustainable food and so forth had no clue. I guess that is a measure of how poorly the message has gotten out in the US.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Mackin USA on November 10, 2016, 03:13:26 PM
Nov 9th:
There was NO significant news today whatsoever

Driven by manipulating traders and their robots, the Dow Futures (YM) had a range of about 1100 points in the overnight/regular session.  ES & NQ had similar profiles. 

After going "Limit-Down" around midnight (NY time), the money grabing idiots around the world decided it was a good time to gamble worthless fiat currency and used their favorite BTFD algorithm.  By mid-day in the session, they showed a decent "paper profit", but paper money is worthless.

Stawks and other paper assets were pumped to huge percentage gains during the regular session by money grabing traders and their robots who have no clue about real money.  As usual, there was a bunch of activity at the open of the session, not so much during the middle of the day, and a bunch of activity near the end of the session.  This is a clear sign of manipulation.

ZeroHedge
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ergophobe on November 11, 2016, 10:35:12 PM
This is OT... but littleman, I wanted to post this when you opened the thread b/c you seemed like you could use a little inspiration.

I love these stories and they always make me feel better...

Alan Rabinowitz overcomes stuttering and lives up to his promise to speak for the animals
https://themoth.org/stories/man-and-beast

Sala Udin almost dies as a Freedom Rider and finds his life's work
https://themoth.org/stories/i-want-to-be-a-freedom-rider

Wanda Bullard's father is not the world's most diligent jailer.
https://themoth.org/stories/small-town-prisoner

Jeff Simmermon explains his signature move: The Sad King Arthur... and gets a little grace.
https://themoth.org/stories/empathetic-subway-screaming

Aryana Rose falls in love with a younger man and becomes a fairy
https://themoth.org/stories/i-can-die-now

Anthony Griffith knocks it out of the park on the Tonight Show while facing tragedy at home
https://themoth.org/stories/the-best-of-times-the-worst-of-times

Title: Re: Wow
Post by: littleman on November 13, 2016, 05:21:10 AM
Thanks Ergo, I'll work my way down the list.  I like what I've heard of the Moth podcasts.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Mackin USA on November 13, 2016, 11:56:30 AM
We have to look @ the BIG picture...

NOW ITALY?

Italy referendum result could send shockwaves through markets and DESTROY Europe

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/731484/Italian-referendum-shockwaves-European-Union-financial-markets
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Mackin USA on November 17, 2016, 02:35:12 PM
AND THIS

Europe at risk of collapse.

"Europe is in danger of falling apart," Valls said at an event organized by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. "So Germany and France have a huge responsibility."

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/europe-risk-collapse-france-germany-must-lead-french-101538119.html

Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ukgimp on November 21, 2016, 10:55:28 AM
It's clear the pundits / experts know FA at the moment.

Interesting take on it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmdxYTyrI-E&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: littleman on November 21, 2016, 07:04:38 PM
Gimp that was interesting.  I agree with much of the premise of the lecture, but not entirely.  One thing that struck me is that he set up a dichotomy between liberals (meaning globalists) and populists (reactionary, xenophobic, anti-trade) when I think there are nuances that should be addressed.  

One thing the muddies the waters is that words like "liberal" and "progressive" have different meanings; in the US liberal & progressive usually refer to stances on social issues like civil rights or environmental issues like global warming. In this lecture I take it that the speaker was using these terms more along the lines of promoting neoliberalism which is a push towards private control of the economy and natural resources.  

So, I guess I do not buy that the polarized  dichotomy between xenophobic popularism and neoliberalism are the only choices.  In many ways globalization has benefited humanity.  Poverty is reducing all over the world, birth rates are falling, and globally many people are enjoying a much higher standard of living.  Yet, many people (myself included) believe that the push towards free shipping of natural resources, products and people have done its share of damage.  We all know the environmental crisis that is coming.  As waves of development have traveled in and out of countries many people have had their lives and livelihood turned disrupted.  As much as it has hit places like the UK and the USA, developing countries such has Mexico have had been hit much harder by changes in global trade.

Much of the theories I learned about economic specialization in school turned out to be false.  Really, the dominant factor is lower costs.  In this age of globalization manufacturing largely goes to where it can be done the most efficiently -- which basically means places that have a stable government, enough infrastructure and lowest cost labor.

Coming back around to the point of the lecture... I think the expanse of globalization has been handled badly in much of the West.  During the expansions in the Asian economies we allowed subsidies products to be dumped in our countries at very high volumes.  This killed a lot of higher quality manufacturing jobs.  Later there was the second wave of jobs leaving domestic companies moved their manufacturing base.

I think the Trump style popularism is like a scream of a person who has already jumped out of building.  It is a lot of noise, but it is not going to prevent the inevitable splat.  Even if he succeeds and deports three million Latin Americans it will do very little to bring back quality jobs in the US.  Think about the jobs undocumented labor does -- not exactly what most people dream of doing. The jobs that first went to Latin America and then Asia are going to soon all be done by robots.  They will never come back.

Neoliberalism vs. popularism is an argument of the twentieth century, but the population hasn't caught up yet.

Edit: Sorry about the long post... If you don't want to read the whole thing I guess my point is in the last line above.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ergophobe on November 21, 2016, 07:44:53 PM
Quote from: littleman on November 21, 2016, 07:04:38 PM
Edit: Sorry about the long post...

I enjoyed it and planned to go back to the video and your post when I have more time to ponder them.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2016, 12:37:07 AM
IMO, this was the (rural) white man's last stand, plain & simple. AKA "Make America White Again."  We've had the same thing happen here in the state gov for a couple of elections now. Dems have been routed, repressive/regressive policies and laws enacted, etc.  On the social issues, it's not been pretty. On the business issues, though, it has been pretty good.  NC now ranks as one of the best states for business.  

I expect much of the same results from Trumponomics.

Aty Gen Sessions: If you set out to pick a man that --point by point-- stood for the opposite of my personal beliefs/wishlist, it'd be him.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Mackin USA on November 22, 2016, 02:46:40 PM
"On the social issues, it's not been pretty. On the business issues, though, it has been pretty good."

I can respect your point of view.

I'm taking a wait & see on Atty Gen Sessions, if confirmed.
Trump is a moderate, imo, and MAY not let the DOJ run the show.

On economic issues, things look great BUT all the Central Banks who matter in the world are placing everyone in a Very UNCERTAIN position.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2016, 03:17:39 PM
Note the general dominance of (arch-) conservative states

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/americas-top-states-for-business-2016-the-list-and-ranking.html
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Mackin USA on November 22, 2016, 03:29:00 PM
    
North Carolina > Access to Capital > #2

Happy I moved here from "elsewhere"  :D
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2016, 04:06:12 PM
Aside: I voted for Trump. We'll discuss why over a drink sometime, though it'll take a few years to see if my gambit worked.

>(rural) white man's last stand

Note that this article was written just before the election and is referencing shifts in early voting. Early voting tends to favor Democrats in NC.

QuoteThe state's general assembly had "requested data on the use, by race, of a number of voting practices," wrote the court. And then, "Upon receipt of the race data, the General Assembly enacted legislation that restricted voting and registration in five different ways, all of which disproportionately affected African Americans."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/07/north-carolina-s-racist-voter-suppression-is-working.html
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2016, 05:24:01 PM
<added>

>"elsewhere"

They're not taking it so well.

Calexit group files for 2018 vote on whether California should leave U.S.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article116250838.html
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: ergophobe on November 22, 2016, 05:55:58 PM
Quote from: littleman on November 21, 2016, 07:04:38 PM
In this age of globalization manufacturing largely goes to where it can be done the most efficiently -- which basically means places that have a stable government, enough infrastructure and lowest cost labor... it will do very little to bring back quality jobs in the US... soon all be done by robots.

Forget it man. You are never getting elected with that platform. It has the disadvantage of being completely unpalatable and unacceptable to the parties, the candidates and the population. The only thing it has in its favor is that it is correct.

Manufacturing *is* coming back to the US. And they will need a few attendants to grease the robots in the short term. Then the robot-greasing robots will get invented.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: littleman on November 22, 2016, 06:12:12 PM
QuoteThen the robot greasing robots will get invented.

That made me laugh and wince at the same time.
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Mackin USA on November 22, 2016, 08:48:50 PM
"Then the robot greasing robots will get invented."

I'm planning to encourage my grandchildren to major in ADVANCE GREASING ROBOTS & Art History
Title: Re: Wow
Post by: Brad on November 22, 2016, 09:23:43 PM
The problem is that if you have a large portion of people, especially males, unemployed or underemployed, and disenfranchised, they will revolt.  FDR recognized this when he created the WPA and the CCC during the Great Depression. 

Not everybody is, intellectually, cut out to be an Advanced Robot Greaser.