http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/no-waiting-at-the-register-new-amazon-go-store-bills-everything-to-your-amazon-account.html
If you dont follow the video to the end, then the last part is about the fact this is about people too, not just avoiding the queue at the check our. A lot of $15 per hour jobs go at the checkout, giving Amazon a competitive advantage and then:
"People matter too... wow..."
You know, I watched the Italian PM get beaten today, and the people are starting to gently stir... I do hope this changes direction, but I dont think it will.
how about this for a theory probably mooted many times before... what we are watching is the start of WW3. It will not be state to state, or country v country, it will be people v corporates and state.
I still don't see how it actually matches a given person to a given purchase. You don't scan anything, so it must register that you enter, have some sort of facial recognition (???) and the fact that they know who is and isn't in the store simplifies the recognition task (plus presumably your phone is telling the story who's close to what)... then it's just a matter of tracking which item you took off the shelf.
So at very large scale, this has a big impact on the use of cash for purchases. I'm sure it will still be possible to feed bills in somewhere, but it's like the automated toll systems - you can pay cash every day if you want to wait in line in return for a minor reduction in the ability of "they" to track you, but 99% of regular commuters just get the EZ Pass and zoom through.
So in addition to cashiers, some ATM service people lose their jobs, in fair turnabout for putting all those bank tellers out of work ;-)
Who else?
Quote from: Rupert on December 05, 2016, 04:04:34 PM
what we are watching is the start of WW3. It will not be state to state, or country v country, it will be people v corporates and state.
Actually, I think the more relevant conflict is rich vs poor as Steven Hawking said in the article you linked in the Terminator thread
Quoterisking significant political upheaval, Stephen Hawking has warned
I've been thinking about this a lot lately. People are worried about the "terminator scenario" as we call it here, where people fight machines. The problem is, way before that, if we manage automation poorly, income inequality will reach a point where we will have armed conflict between the haves and the have-nots. In the short term, this typically goes really bad for the have-nots, but in the long term, it typically goes really bad for everyone.
When you insist on the morality of work and you insist on an economy that pays people either based on hours worked or based on return on capital, and you suddenly have no more hours to work and huge sections of the society with no capital... you reach a scary moment.
RC and I were discussing this a while back. If anyone thinks revolution will be a good thing provided you're on the winning side, ask Robespierre and Trotsky how it worked out for them.
>start of WW3
On a gut level I believe it will not come down to this. I read somewhere a while back that "democracy is the insurance policy for the wealthy". I think that when it become apparent that civil stability is in true jeopardy policies will change. That's what happened with the New Deal in the US during the depression.
I don't know where the numbers will be when regular people will start to think about this, maybe it is when 20% are under employed and 10% are unemployed in the US. The numbers are probably higher in the UK and Europe due to more extensive welfare programs. That said, it is astonishing to me how little this is on the minds of those who will be affected the most. So many people are fighting the wrong fights right now.
QuoteSo many people are fighting the wrong fights right now.
I agree on so many levels.
The Haves will find their income diminish as the have nots find they have nothing to spend... so yes, at what point do the "elite" wake up. I don't think they will. Capitals no good if the tenants cannot pay the rent. But will that message be enough?
Like jeff bezos, he seems to have an attitude of "not my problem" while his employees are treated really badly, he becomes one of the wealthiest men in the world. I am beginning to think he not just misguided. But evil. Otherwise why would he behave the way he does?
The new deal scenario is promising. Are their any other examples in history.? Funny how these threads all turn the same way. We all know its going wrong. We all worry about it.
But Trump and Clinton did not seem to recognise it, they could have rocked that election taking about things like that, and I am surprised Trump missed it.... and its the same over here. Business as usual.
Quote from: littleman on December 05, 2016, 07:19:42 PM
On a gut level I believe it will not come down to this. I read somewhere a while back that "democracy is the insurance policy for the wealthy". I think that when it become apparent that civil stability is in true jeopardy policies will change. That's what happened with the New Deal in the US during the depression.
Despite what I said, I agree with that. I think it will, eventually, be managed in a way that stops short of armed rebellion. A couple of years ago a friend said that 25 years ago I was the first one to explain welfare to him in a way that made sense. I had completely forgotten and had to have him remind me. Apparently I told him "It's the cheapest way for rich people to keep poor people with knives and guns out of their living rooms. It's way cheaper than a private security force."
Which is why I think you're right. Bread and circuses always have been cheaper than a professional private army. The thing I've been wonder about, though, is what happens with the robot army gets cheap...
QuoteIt's the cheapest way for rich people to keep poor people with knives and guns out of their living rooms. It's way cheaper than a private security force."
Nice, I will use that, thanks. A very good trip to school discussion ... Throw it in and then say: What do you think? always entertaining, and mind stretching for us all.
The funny thing it that it was part of a wide-ranging discussion ca 1992 on income distribution and the minimum wage after it cost 20 francs (about USD 17 at the time) to get a copy of my apartment key in Switzerland. I remember walking and sitting on a wall in the Tuscan countryside for almost an entire day debating and at some point I threw out that line.
I forgot not only the line, but the entire idea behind it, until he reminded me about five years ago.
>what happens with the robot army gets cheap
Right, not a pleasant thought. This is why I think it is important to get people aware of the coming crisis and push to reform laws before it happens. When I talk to friends and family about the issue they look at me like I'm from Mars.
Quote from: littleman on December 05, 2016, 10:04:02 PM
When I talk to friends and family about the issue they look at me like I'm from Mars.
I'm seeing this change in the last six months... either that or my immediate circle is sick to death of hearing me talk about it and they nod and say yes to get me to shut up. In fact, I'm pretty sure that's the likely explanation.
>welfare
My memory of history is getting a bit fuzzy but Bismarck pensioned off huge sectors of the German population during the unification of modern Germany under Prussia. He pensioned off all those made redundant, particularly former civil servants of the smaller German states who might oppose unification from within if they were discontent. Oil on the waters and much cheaper than outright coercion.
>> professional private army CHEAP
I've seen so many depictions of the future where robot-like police keep the MASSES in line while the ELITE carry on.
Quote from: Mackin USA on December 06, 2016, 03:25:43 PM
I've seen so many depictions of the future where robot-like police keep the MASSES in line while the ELITE carry on.
I've seen so many depictions where multiplanetary federations whizz bewtween stars at huge multiples of the speed of light....
latest doomsday headline for retail workers...
The New York Post's front page story on Tuesday called the store "the end of jobs." Correction: This article has been updated to reflect when the NY Post story
https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/m/548bac1a-bc07-3489-a8a5-dd66be0c7aef/new-york-post-calls.html
> my immediate circle is sick to death of hearing me talk about it
Same, but there are signs it's going mainstream.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/12/07/privacy_is_theft_eggers_big_screen_takedown_of_google_and_facebook_emerges/
>doomsday for retail workers
We can't just let retail workers have all the fun
Fast-food CEO who says machines are the answer to rising wages is expected to be named Trump's next labor secretary
http://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-puzder-to-be-named-labor-secretary-2016-12
Oh, and a related venn diagram from Economics
https://pajamasmed.hs.llnwd.net/e12/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Screen-Shot-2016-12-07-at-7.47.20-PM-600x431.png
Great Venn diagram.
I hate to say this, but on some level, Pudzer is voicing the truths that no politicians want to talk about and which we talk about obsessively here.
I want to hate the guy because he seems viciously anti-worker. But in essence he's seeing the same trends as I am. If you raise the minimum wage and other costs associated with having employees in an age when automation is getting cheaper and cheaper, that can only move things in one direction.
I read that and find myself once again owing littleman an apology for saying he was wrong that UBI would be a major campaign issue by 2024 :-)
Voicing truths, but equally isn't that why capitalism is clearly no longer a sensible driver of growth?
There is no such thing as a free market, and this is just more proof to me that the men at the top of business cannot be trusted, they are as amoral as the businesses they run. They make decisions for their own short term gain, not the long term or the greater good.
It will be interesting to see how Trump plays it. Some decisions will be for his ego, and some for his wallet. If we are lucky, then the ego driven decisions might work out for the greater good too. :)
Phew, thats heavily opinionated for me!
Opinionated but I agree with the position as you see it. The 'invisible hand' is not taking care of things as much as it could.
WRT Glass–Steagall and the way wealth has been created the past 30 years, I see that as a major part of the problem. Though, not sure how exactly we 'unwind' from an untenable position of debt when the only solution has been more debt.
DOCTOR DOOM HERE
"Though, not sure how exactly we 'unwind' from an untenable position of debt when the only solution has been more debt."
I repeat that it will take a MAJOR crisis event to RESET THE SYSTEM.
But Y'all have a Merry Christmas
Quote from: BoL on December 09, 2016, 10:29:18 AM
Opinionated but I agree with the position as you see it. The 'invisible hand' is not taking care of things as much as it could.
To wit...
QuoteThe rich only select from the heap what is most precious and agreeable. They consume little more than the poor, and in spite of their natural rapacity, though they mean only their own conveniency, though the sole end which they propose from the labours of all the thousands whom they employ, be the gratification of their own vain desires, they divide with the poor the produce of all their improvements. They are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants, and thus without intending it, without knowing it, advance the society, and afford the multiplication of the species.
-- Adam Smith
https://books.google.com/books?id=PytC91J0ow4C&lpg=PA74&pg=PA74#v=onepage&q&f=false
QuoteRESET THE SYSTEM.
Easy, thats what happens at the end of every game of monopoly :)
Merry Christmas to you too Dr Doom. ;D
Oh and yes, the previous comment was not meant as a criticism of the wealthy, after all I am one of them, so would not criticise myself. Only those wealthier than me (cough).... but I do no better.
I was listening to a Desert Island Disks BBC Radio 4 podcast, not sure they are available in the USA? ) on tuesday by Bill Gates. Quite interesting how his life view has changed.
>>Desert Island Disks BBC Radio 4 podcast, not sure they are available in the USA? )
I listen to a few BBC podcasts, so it should be available. Does that one get your thumbs up?
[downloading the Gates episode now]
i enjoy them. you get great insight into individuals.
Its like a 30 min biography. And there are loads. Currently listening to a few on long journeys. Love to hear how you find them. The are very gently British I think.
Probably the interview list is too British for you, in that many names you might not know. A lot of UK comedians, head of the bank (Mervyn King) sort of people. But I was listening to one with a Canadian astronaut the other day though... It was good.
Ding Ding Ding!
Mr Mackin is the winner. We're all screwed
Mr Mackin
QuoteI repeat that it will take a MAJOR crisis event to RESET THE SYSTEM.
Walter Seidel, esteemed professor of history at Stanford
QuoteThat's the bleak argument of Walter Scheidel, a professor of history at Stanford, whose new book, "The Great Leveler" (Princeton University Press), is due out next month. He goes so far as to state that "only all-out thermonuclear war might fundamentally reset the existing distribution of resources." If history is anything to go by, he writes, "peaceful policy reform may well prove unequal to the growing challenges ahead."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/business/economy/a-dilemma-for-humanity-stark-inequality-or-total-war.html
:o
I DO NOT LIKE being the winner of this sad story!!
Nuclear war would solve resource problems and global warming, so it's not all doom and gloom.
I keep seeing Slim Pickens riding a nuclear bomb as it drops out of a B-52 in "Doctor Strangelove."
Trump team sparks fears of 'witch hunt' as it seeks names of Energy Department climate experts (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-witch-hunt-energy-department-climate-experts-change-scott-pruitt-paris-agreement-a7467196.html)
Quote from: Travoli on December 10, 2016, 06:11:32 PM
Nuclear war would solve resource problems and global warming, so it's not all doom and gloom.
QuoteAnimals Rule Chernobyl 30 Years After Nuclear Disaster
Three decades later, it's not certain how radiation is affecting wildlife—but it's clear that animals abound.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/060418-chernobyl-wildlife-thirty-year-anniversary-science/
Isn't that really interesting? It seems that the radiation hasn't done the damage scientists thought it would. I wonder if it means there is less effective radiation exposure, or if the exposure is less damaging than expected. I saw another documentary about people who are still living in the area, they are homesteaders -- basically there because no one else wants to be. They are farming in the area, growing potatoes and small animals. So far they are surviving ok too.
There is a local charity that helps the children from there. Some people we know were involved with them for a few years. From what I remember, the basic idea was that by getting them out of the radiation for a few weeks every year, it gave their bodies a rest, and a chance to fight the effects.
http://www.chernobyl-children.org.uk/
Quote
Doctors in Belarus say that a four week holiday boosts the children's immune systems for at least two years, helping them to resist, or recover from, serious illness.
In the summer, when the dust causes radiation levels to rise, it is important for as many children as possible to leave their contaminated homeland for a few weeks of fresh air and clean food.
It can also significantly reduce the amount of radioactive caesium which has built up in a child's body.
Each summer Chernobyl Children's Project (UK) brings around 100 children to Britain for a recuperative holiday. It also organises holidays in clean parts of Belarus for children whose disabilities make it difficult for them to travel.
Leukaemia is high with them.