The week the AI scare turned real

[ergophobe]

You've probably already seen or at least heard about the Citrini report.

This is an overview article from Fortune via MSN (no paywall)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-week-the-ai-scare-turned-real-and-america-realized-maybe-it-isn-t-ready-for-what-s-coming/ar-AA1XfRrA

This is the Matt Schumer article (yes, X has loooong articles these days)
https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403

The key insight here is that AIs are so good at coding and software devs are the first casualties not because of something inherent in coding that makes it an easy target, but because the AI companies need the AIs to be good at coding so they can move faster.

This seems obvious, but it had not occurred to me in such a simple formulation. The fact that developers are getting hit first doesn't delay the timeline for accountants, it accelerates it.

The AI labs made a deliberate choice. They focused on making AI great at writing code first... because building AI requires a lot of code. If AI can write that code, it can help build the next version of itself. A smarter version, which writes better code, which builds an even smarter version. Making AI great at coding was the strategy that unlocks everything else. That's why they did it first. My job started changing before yours not because they were targeting software engineers... it was just a side effect of where they chose to aim first.

They've now done it. And they're moving on to everything else.

And if you haven't seen it, here's the Citrini "scenario" (not prediction, as they are intent on emphasizing)

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

[ergophobe]

Key piece of info - one of the authors of the Citrini report had shorted the companies mentioned in the report to the tune of over $200m.

[ergophobe]

Another key passage from Shumer

Part of the problem is that most people are using the free version of AI tools. The free version is over a year behind what paying users have access to....

But I've had partners at major law firms reach out to me... He told me it's like having a team of associates available instantly.... And he told me something that stuck with me: every couple of months, it gets significantly more capable for his work. He said if it stays on this trajectory, he expects it'll be able to do most of what he does before long... and he's a managing partner with decades of experience....

How fast this is actually moving

Let me make the pace of improvement concrete, because I think this is the part that's hardest to believe if you're not watching it closely.

In 2022, AI couldn't do basic arithmetic reliably. It would confidently tell you that 7 × 8 = 54.

By 2023, it could pass the bar exam.

By 2024, it could write working software and explain graduate-level science.

By late 2025, some of the best engineers in the world said they had handed over most of their coding work to AI.

On February 5th, 2026, new models arrived that made everything before them feel like a different era.
If you haven't tried AI in the last few months, what exists today would be unrecognizable to you.

[ergophobe]

Amodei has a thought experiment I can't stop thinking about. Imagine it's 2027. A new country appears overnight. 50 million citizens, every one smarter than any Nobel Prize winner who has ever lived. They think 10 to 100 times faster than any human. They never sleep. They can use the internet, control robots, direct experiments, and operate anything with a digital interface. What would a national security advisor say?

[rcjordan]

>What would a national security advisor say?

"Fuck! It's Skynet!"