2050 is as close as 1990

[ergophobe]

2050 is as close as 1990.

That's been on my mind a lot lately. Not so long ago, I was rock climbing with a younger friend and I realized how short his memory was and I asked, "What year were you born?"

"1992"

"My shirt is older than you are."

I know I said it, but it was a quote that hit home as it came out of my mouth. Or, put another way, Reagan, Nixon and Lincoln are all equally historical figures to them, but 2050 is something they think about all the time due to it's status as an important reference year for climate change milestones.

For older folks like us, that quote hits home because it's surprising that 1990 is so far away. I wonder, how does it feel to the younger ones. So I'm curious if people with older kids (littleman, Rupert) what your sense is. I feel like someone who is 20 has a vague idea who Bill Clinton and George HW Bush were, but the are constantly hearing about climate milestones in 2040 and 2050.

For those of us who remember the 80s and earlier, it's staggering that 2050 is as close as 1990. In fact, it staggers me all the time that it's the 21st century. 20 years and I still haven't quite accustomed myself. But I wonder how your kids see it.

[Rupert]

I will ask when she is next home...  She left on the train back to Brighton on Saturday, so another lovely period has gone.

"My shirt is older than you are."

I think I can picture the shirt. Red Checks ?   Thick wool? going thin at the elbows?  very well-loved. 

BUT in Lucys absence:
I think 2040 and 2050 is too far away for them to imagine. My theory is that you are unable to control your life at all until you are 14.  Then you start to have a bit of choice, which grows as you do and take on responsibility for yourself. So, that's 5 years for Lucy.

The limit of a humans vision is 10 years imho.  No one can really know what they will be doing in 10 years time, and that is particularly true of the 20 somethings. Can they visualise 30 something.. "wow I might have a family, but I have no idea who with. "  I think is how it would be seen but it's very hard. 

For me, 1990 was a long time ago. I have done loads of different things in that time.  2050...  I will be 86. I hope that I will achieve loads in that time.

For me, 2000 was a very memorable party. Old friends I still see, and then Sue got finally pregnant that year. 1999 I was made redundant from my job, so we never went to the Maldives to go diving (still on the bucket list) so thats my pivotal time.

1990 was a long time before all that! 

[BoL]

Not turned 40 yet but I'm hearing what you're saying!

9 years old, Michael Jackson and WWF and satellite TV was popular in the UK in 1990. Felt like I knew what the future was and the old would be swept aside. Reminds me of that Billy Idol song We didn't start the fire... a lot of the references would be lost in folks born in the 90s afterwards.

For me I feel I'm at the bridge where I know the customs and respects of the older generations but not farting too must dust for the younger generation.

2050, I can't even imagine. Can't recall what I was thinking in 1990 what 2020 would be like.

[rcjordan]

>"My shirt is older than you are."

Here in NC, I use "I've got underwear older than you, boy."

[ergophobe]

I think I can picture the shirt. Red Checks ?   Thick wool? going thin at the elbows?  very well-loved. 

See, now that's the thing. No, it was a very modern-looking expedition weight polar fleece (this was out climbing in cool weather remember). That's why 1991 can seem so close.

No one can really know what they will be doing in 10 years time, and that is particularly true of the 20 somethings. Can they visualise 30 something

Of course. That should have been obvious to me. When I was 20, I thought there were less than even odds I would make it to 30. It seemed so far away

[Rupert]

No, it was a very modern-looking expedition weight polar fleece

Ah misjudged, must have been a UK thing in the outdoor world  

Another thought.... I have not spoken to Lucy, but she like many old songs. EG The summer of 69, Bryan Adams is a must at a party.  That was from 1984.

So perhaps that draws the past closer for her.

[ergophobe]

I don't think you'd find a UK climber out in threatening weather in a checked wool shirt with worn elbows. Hill walkers maybe, but not climbers. Even in the 1990, the UK climbers in Chamonix were always considered a bit shambly looking by French standards, but they were all in blue polypro. 100%.

>> many old songs

Well, that only goes so far. I like Chopin's Nocturnes, but it doesn't make me feel close to the 1830s ;-)

[Rupert]

Ok, 1990 ish I was attempting Mont Blanc, but suffered Alt sickness on the way up, so only managed Mont Blanc du Tacu a few days later...

That was me scruffy, and proud of it

I think we went from the Gouter hut when trying for MB. Where were you climbing?

[ergophobe]

Actually, in 1990, I was in the States. Moved to CH in 1992-1995.

I climbed a fair bit on Tacul. Goulotte Chere several times. Also the Contamine-Mazeaud solo. The route is easy, but I descended right along the right side of the Triangle du Tacul among the seracs. Relatively foolish and quite scary. Let's see... I've done some routes from the Midi midstation (never the Frendo, though, which was always on my list). Majorette Thatcher comes to mind. A few others too. North Face of the Courtes. Petit Viking also in the Argentiere basin.

But remember, 1992 is as far away as 2048, so I've forgotten a ton.

But I regard Goulotte Chere in the winter as an all-time easy, wonderful route. Telepherique to 3,800 meters, a quick run across the glacier, six(?) pitches of ice up to WI4- (relatively easy, about the grade I was almost comfortable soloing in those days), walk off the Triangle du Tacul and then a 26km ski descent back to the car.  With a fast partner and the first or second cable car, you're back in Cham for lunch.

[Rupert]

You make it sound so easy

I do miss those days. I did nothing like your level but did enjoy it. When I was about28 I watch a friend fall several hundred feet off Scar Fell, a hill in the UK. He cartwheeled down a steep slope, and I watched him all the way until he fell into the mist.
he had a full recovery and now lives in Norway.  I have not done much "serious" mountaineering since. I hate heights.

I think that looking forward, as humans we struggle to picture ourselves in the future. Its amazing really that people plan for climate change (or anything) to 2050, as they really have no idea. I suspect it a legacy thing.They will hopefully be remembered for it.

I think in the west, most people struggle to plan for old age. If you thought you would not make it past 30 Ergo, I am surprised you do now 

[jetboy]

The summer of 69, Bryan Adams is a must at a party.  That was from 1984.

I'm now 50, but I listen to new music like an obsessive teenager. Bryan Adams' Reckless would still make my top 50.

[Rupert]

I listen to new music like an obsessive teenager.

I can see it  

....and So far so good.....

[ergophobe]

Its amazing really that people plan for climate change (or anything) to 2050, as they really have no idea

One of my all-time favorite non-fiction books is The Clock of the Long Now (1999).
https://amzn.to/31OpKq0

The inspiration for the book is a comment by Danny Hillis (one of the main architects of the Cray supercomputer I believe) that goes something like this: "When I was growing up in the 1950s, everyone talked about the year 2000. Now, in 1992, everyone is still talking about the year 2000. So I've lost one year of future for every year I've been alive."

That hit me as profound, because in the 1990s I started to feel like I had been promised a space ship, but all I was hearing about was the Y2K bug. So Stewart Brand set out to investigate how we became such short-term thinkers, how people in the past were better at long-term thinking, and asking how we could get better at long-term thinking.

I think getting over the Y2K hurdle and the specter of climate change have allowed us to look farther into the future again.

Anyway, as I say, it is an all-time favorite book that I wish more people would read. It's one of the reasons I found Black Swan so difficult. At least for me, The Clock of the Long Now has a similar big idea, but is twice as profound, half as long, more practical and has much better writing and a much more likeable authorial presence.

If you thought you would not make it past 30 Ergo, I am surprised you do now

To be directly honest about it, though I did many dangerous things, my main danger in my early 20s was frankly due to depression and risk of suicide. Once I hit my late 20s and got past the depression, I was mostly out of danger, but it took more than another decade to adjust mentally to the idea that I was likely to make it to old age and that old age would go better if I started planning for it. So by 40, I had a lot of lost ground to make up. That said, between the time I stopped being always depressed and the time I started realizing I had to plan for old age, I had some really great carefree years where I did a lot of climbing and a lot of reading, my two favorite pursuits. I'm continually shocked at how well it's all worked out.

[Rupert]

Thats an interesting thought about Y2K...  It feels right. And climate change giving us the longer view.

Book bought on ebay... more expensive than kindle, but I have a feeling its going to be passed around

I am so glad you got over the depression.

[littleman]

1990 us the year I graduated from high school.  While reading through this thread I pointed out to Jen that 2050 is as close to us as 2050 and she replied "That's crazy!".

Technology has changed a lot and global concerns have shifted, but in many ways I don't think the young adults of today are all that different than I was at the same age.  Though they are worried about the future, they're not thinking about 2050 that much.  They spend much more time thinking about their place in the world in the next ten years.  Like Ergo said, it is hard to imagine three decades out.  I had no idea how 2020 was going to be, but I didn't think it would be like this.