Wright's Law: Batteries will drop below to $85/kWh in 2025

Started by ergophobe, March 01, 2021, 01:28:43 AM

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ergophobe

#1
March 01, 2021, 01:36:15 AM
PS... it turns out that Wright's Law predicts semiconductor costs better than Moore's Law too.

Moore's Law Isn't Dead: It's Wrong – Long Live Wright's Law
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/wrights-law-2/

QuoteYes, the most famous technology forecast of all time—Gordon Moore's prediction that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years—confuses why and how technology costs decline. It focuses on the wrong variable: time.

What's the right variable? Production capacity.

rcjordan

#2
March 01, 2021, 06:20:53 AM
What's the current price/kwh for a powerwall?

ergophobe

#3
March 01, 2021, 04:39:06 PM
I'm not sure, but Powerwall is not a great measure since it includes an inverter and all sorts of other electronics that follow different price curves. But at last check it was over $500/kWh. They had a very small price reduction. I believe they are 13kWh and the price has been in the $6500-$7500 range.

Expecting a Powerwall to observe normal price curves is like expecting an iPhone or iMac to be subject to the same. There is a brand cache that lets them maintain price floors even in the context of falling hardware costs. With Powerwall even more so, since there are long wait lists to get them.

ergophobe

#4
May 15, 2021, 05:54:24 PM Last Edit: May 15, 2021, 06:00:07 PM by ergophobe
Quote from: rcjordan on March 01, 2021, 06:20:53 AM
What's the current price/kwh for a powerwall?

The price of the Simpliphi battery, which is a more pure measure (it's just a battery) has risen about 10% over the last two years. But that's for lithium ferro-phosphate batteries, which don't yet have the production volume of the traditional lithim cobalt batteries. For the latter, apparently prices dropped 13% in 2020.
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/storage/annual-survey-finds-battery-prices-dropped-13-in-2020/

We're hoping to relaunch our battery + solar project, but the installer we liked the best was due to deliver on May 3 (wife runs the office and husband runs the field ops, so a baby brings their whole business to a crawl).

Travoli

#6
May 16, 2021, 01:16:49 AM
Here's hoping we'll see Moore's law apply to EV charge time.

buckworks

#7
May 16, 2021, 03:00:08 AM
>> EV charge time

What sorts of upgrading will the grid need to be able to support rapid charging for millions of EVs?

ergophobe

#8
May 16, 2021, 03:40:46 AM
Similar but worse to the upgrades needed when everyone got A/C. Everything from the local transformers that serve 4-12 houses to the substations will likely need upgrading. But electrification or just rolling back our standard of living are the only paths to surviving the coming centuries, so it has to be done.

That said, there are also huge efficiencies that will be gained. For example, with smart meters, you could set it so your car can sell electricity when the price is high and buy low. So when it gets super hot and everyone flips on their A/C or gets super cold and everyone flips on their electric heat (which we will need to switch to), your car can help with that load down to some preset level (like you want to save 100km range). So in the long run, that means you need less excess generating and storage capacity.

It's complicated, but it has both significant challenges and significant opportunities.
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