Goodbye Oil Changes: What 40–80% EV Adoption Will Look Like

[rcjordan]

"Crossing the 40% adoption mark represents a major tipping point. Beyond this threshold, infrastructure and economic conditions that once made gasoline and diesel vehicles convenient and affordable quickly unravel. The decline of ICE infrastructure occurs rapidly, far faster than most observers currently anticipate."

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/07/30/goodbye-oil-changes-what-40-80-ev-adoption-will-look-like/

"The resulting economic disruption from these closures will ripple through regional economies, affecting employment and local commerce. Countries at the forefront of EV adoption must urgently plan retraining and economic transition programs for automotive technicians and service industry workers displaced by this transition. Without proactive measures, the decline of ICE-focused businesses will cause significant local job losses, particularly in smaller towns and rural communities dependent on automotive services for economic stability."

[ergophobe]

As I mentioned before, a big reason for getting a PHEV is that electric infrastructure is still not ideal, but getting gas here is a PITA. And it has me pondering how many gas stations you have to lose before a lot of America (or more to the point, Norway or China) is like this everywhere.

At that point, people will quickly find it super annoying to have a vehicle that needs to go somewhere to fuel up. Until you've experienced being able to fuel at home, you don't know inconvenient it is to go to the gas station. Or, as someone said recently: "You have no idea how much a burden something was until you can set it down."

Even with a PHEV, I find oil changes annoying in a way that I didn't before. About half of my miles are electric and I just can't stop thinking, "If all of my miles were electric, I wouldn't be doing this." My neighbor, a good old shade tree mechanic from Louisiana, is thrilled that his Tesla has no maintenance except tire rotations until it hits something like 60K or 100K

So I think that article is correct that there will be a tipping point where the decreasing infrastructure for ICE is going to drive people to EVs in a way that the inferior charging structure currently keeps a lot of people away

[Brad]

>decreasing infrastructure

All good points.  But it won't be even in all areas, especially across the USA.  Some areas will have ICE usage linger because of distances or lack of grid.  New England and California may well go EV long before Wyoming and rural Iowa.

Then again, cost of gas will go up in those places as overall demand for petroleum shrinks and refineries start shutting down.  That will increase EV adoption.

[rcjordan]

>refineries start shutting down

Debbie says the demand for plastics and the petrochemicals to produce them will keep refineries going for a good while.

[buckworks]

>> demand for plastics

When you think of all the things petroleum can be used for, it's far too valuable to just burn!

[rcjordan]

>all the things

Scroll down to the refinery cracker image at the bottom.  Shows stratification.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/oil-refining5.htm