AI Bubble - crystal ball time

[Drastic]

>A U.S. 'debt spiral' could start soon as the interest rate on government borrowing is poised to exceed economic growth, budget watchdog says

I guess we really shouldn't have let someone who bankrupted three casino become president.

The man seems to have an inverse King Midas touch.

I was really feeling good about this year and into early '27 after this thread. With the war, I'm thinking we'll be lucky to finish decently in 26.

[ergophobe]

I was really feeling good about this year

That is the rhythm of our time. Just when you feel like, "Okay, I think this is going to work out okay," things get dialed up another notch.

Initially, this was certainly intentional. It was Bannon's "flooding the zone" strategy: keep doing things at a rate that people can never find their footing and your opponents are perpetually thrown off balance. The idea is that you do the next thing before people even mount a response to the previous thing so that you have focus but your opponents do not.

Lately, this feels more like just the problem you have in strongman government where staffers and Congress fear the strongman more than they fear the people or fear doing something colossally stupid or evil. The people around the strongman become averse to saying anything the strongman doesn't like. So plenty of people think that Ukraine won't just roll over and die, but Putin actively excludes those people until everyone around him says, "Oh yeah, Ukraine will roll over and die."

Same in the White House. In the first term, there were people like John Bolton saying that the Iranians will attack their neighbors and close the Strait of Hormuz (as advisors also told Obama). But not only does Trump exclude those people, recent reporting quoted military sources as saying that their "briefings" for Trump consist of 2-minute videos of things being blown up. That's the limit of his attention span.

So there we are.

James Madison believed that "ambition must be made to counteract ambition." In his view, the ambitions of Congress would counteract the ambitions of the executive.

But as Rand Paul said recently, "Madison never imagined or envisioned a Congress with no ambition."

On the other hand, on the original question
1. All of this stuff is taking a lot heat out of the economy and the stock market, which decreases the AI bubble problem (though obviously not economic problems)

2. Anthropic has seen a doubling of revenue in just the last quarter, which is an exceptional rate of growth. So that also mitigates against the risk of an AI bubble.

Unfortunately, now there seem to be 2-3 other worries that overshadow the AI Bubble.

As in... Doctor: "Good news, the heart problem isn't going to kill you so we can take you off statins. Bad news, you have Stage IV pancreatic cancer."

[ergophobe]

OTOH...

If Trump's war in Iran spirals into a full-blown recession, it could crush the AI industry and spark a catastrophic polycrisis
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/if-trump-s-war-in-iran-spirals-into-a-full-blown-recession-it-could-crush-the-ai-industry-and-spark-a-catastrophic-polycrisis/ar-AA1ZBJUx