MS AI: 'most, if not all' white-collar tasks automated by AI within 18 months

[rcjordan]

Microsoft AI Leader Predicts Automation in White-Collar Jobs - Business Insider

- Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman says AI will reach "human-level performance" in white-collar work.
- He predicts most tasks in that field can be automated within the next 12 to 18 months.
- Several leaders in the AI industry have warned of impending mass job replacement.


https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-ai-ceo-mustafa-suleyman-white-collar-tasks-automation-prediction-2026-2

[Brad]

If this is true then "The Establishment" is not ready for the economic, social and political unrest that is about to hit them.

[rcjordan]

After spending time with the post-November Gem, and considering that Gem seems to be significantly ahead of MS (on the free tier, but some LLM pros are saying the same re Gem), I think that only his ETA is off. BUT let's say he's off by a factor of 3 ...you're still right.

[rcjordan]

<+>
Just this week, I sounded the alarm to my high-math-teacher daughter to sit down with her college age daughters and tell them to plan -as much as possible- their majors and career paths around that leaked MS document about the threatened careers.

*sigh*

Denial is strong in humans. 

[ergophobe]

>> most tasks in that field can be automated within the next 12 to 18 months.

I don't think it's wrong, but it is misleading for (at least) two reasons.

1. Automating tasks is not the same as automating jobs. A large part of any white collar job is figuring out who to schmooze, which egos to caress, exactly which office that piece of paper needs to end up in. So the fact that an LLM can do the *task* of proofreading a document does not immediately eliminate all jobs that involve proofreading. It takes time to rebuild business processes to be AI-friendly.

The analogy I would throw out is that you can't have large-scale conversion from horses to cars until you rebuild the road system to be friendly to cars.

That analogy is not very encouraging, of course, because in the span of 50 years roads went from unfriendly to cars to lethal to humans who are not in cars. And most forbidden.

2. Regulatory capture. Famously, you can't braid someone's hair without a cosmetologist license in Utah (until that was finally struck down). It is a matter of fundamental health and safety to the customer. It would be the height of irresponsibility and danger to let a person without a 2-year cosmetology degree braid someone's hair. People will DIE.

And when AI comes for the jobs of the upper 10%, we will see just how captured our regulatory system is.

> Denial is strong

I know, I repeat myself. I'm turning into my father. Have I told you this before? Well, let me tell you again...

We simply are not prepared to think in terms of exponential processes. It is not certain that AI advance *is* exponential, but it certainly seems so right now (FWIW).

If you have 1cm^2 of algae that's growing at 20% per day, in just over 100 days, it will cover a pond that is 100m on a side. But at 90 days, it has covered only 14%

If I have two data points (day 1 and day 90), I look at that and think, "Hmm... the algae's grown a fair bit this summer. I'll have to do something about that next year." But, you're actually only 9-10 days from disaster.


>>  college age

I see that for my friends who have kids at that stage, they cannot consider some option other than college. It is so culturally strong that people must not work with their hands, that they cannot consider it for their kids.

I can think of some analogies. With the economic dislocation caused as the pipeline for Spanish silver from the New World ran out, there were a lot of impoverished nobles. The comic novel, Lazarillo de Tormes made light of this. Basically, it was more important to be "noble" than to be fed.

In terms of college, there are still lots of careers that will not be touched, assuming the masses still have the ability to buy things. Healthcare and hospitality lead my list. Those are fields where I think the non-college jobs will be easier to automate than the college jobs.

I think a humanities education will still have value, but the model for delivering it will have to change completely.

The universities and their clientele are completely unprepared for that, though. Most professors are still in the mode of complaining about their students "cheating." If you think all your students are "cheating," then you really aren't teaching anything of value. Granted, some professors know that, but the current model prevents them from offering anything of value.

[Rupert]

OK, so knowing we are getting close, how does it change the plan for the next 30 years?

The politics of the world is somewhat destabilising for the economy, but put this on top, and we are about to have a very radical change in structure. 

As a group, traditionally, that is something we thrive on, but I am damned if I can see where it's going for me. 

Do I sell my house?
Do I get a new job? (No, that's easy)
Do I put cash aside or put it all in the top 5 AI companies?
Or China?

[rcjordan]

I don't know if I have an answer BUT it is not the only cataclysmic event in the offing. IMO, we're staring down the barrel of hellacious weather. Category 6 or 7 typhoons, anyone? 

[ergophobe]

> how does it change the plan for the next 30 years?

To me, there are just too many unknowns.

The only real change that I've made, is a few years ago I moved my retirement accounts from mostly US equities to global funds that are about 40% non-US and I'm thinking that future investments should be entirely non-US.

UK isn't quite as bad, but I wouldn't want all my investments in the UK either.

But, beyond that, my plan is the same
 - spend within my means
 - stay healthy

The one thing I have contemplated is learning to hunt. But a lot of me says I'm just not cut out for that kind of world (where hunting would be the difference between survival or death) and I would just give up.

If you've read Cormac McCarthy's The Road, you'll know what I mean.

[rcjordan]

>learning to hunt

Cheapish Amz crossbow & bolts in the attic.  A good, certified, ditch-water purifier bag hanging in the garage.  I've thought long & hard about putting a pitcher-pump well in the back yard.

But I live within 40 air-miles of the homes of the Mid-Atlantic Fleet and the 5th District Hdqtrs of the Coast Guard.  If we're turned into glass there'll be no hunting.  If we're left on the edge of glass, the hunting won't last long.

Cat 6? I'll evacuate and buy a home on some inland water somewhere. Even a nice creek will be enough.

[rcjordan]

OT
Airbnb says a third of its customer support is now handled by AI in the US and Canada | TechCrunch

https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/13/airbnb-says-a-third-of-its-customer-support-is-now-handled-by-ai-in-the-u-s-and-canada/

[ergophobe]

"It's likely over for us."
  -- Rhett Reese, screenwriter for Deadpool, Zombieland and "other big hits"

You might have seen the Seedance 2.0 video that's receiving all the attention: Irish director Ruairí Robinson's post showing AI versions of Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt fighting on a rooftop in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. An X user said the video was created a 2 line prompt in seedance 2.

https://www.techspot.com/news/111338-bytedance-seedance-20-ai-video-generator-sparks-hollywood.html

The example videos are insane - John Wick and Neo meet Terminator. Ip Man fights Captain America. A shampoo ad.

[Rupert]

Cheerful!

[rcjordan]

>Cheerful!

Well, movies should be cheaper.  (But they will not be. See AirBnB or Uber for examples of disrupt/gain marketshare/prices up)


Bezos: Your margin is my opportunity.

[rcjordan]

Stop the presses. This just in...

A real-time marketplace live transmission in China with A-I (Look at her mouth)

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1r758lo/a_realtime_marketplace_live_transmission_in_china/