If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?

[ergophobe]

Digression RE population.

Demographers expect population to peak at the end of the current century and then to start declining.

Population would be in freefall in most of the developed world if not for immigration. Countries like Japan, with low immigration, worry about replacement.

Essentially, once you get infant mortality down, population tends to decline after a lag. Fertility goes down quickly, but increased lifespan causes a population bulge in the near term.

[dogboy]

Yes, I agree... but it is precisely this rate of 'decline' that I'm worried about:) I think the 'bulge' is going to 'bust' and when you see the flip side of this graph, it's not going to be because a bunch of old single people peacefully died in their sleep:)

I don't know.  Like I said, crazy scenarios aside, I just see value in good land.  (And we just put more money in the S&P, so we will need to re-balance anyway.)  I also like to hunt and fish, and I like seeing pretty views, and I could imagine living some of the year in the country.  I've actually spent more time in the country than in the cities, and have the feeling I wont want to retire in a mega city of the future.  Big tracts of land are ever increasingly hard to find.  I hunt on 1500 acres of private land owned by some friends in PA, and I like the feel of a piece of property that size.  And the ones I'm looking at are bordered by National Forest or State Park, so maybe 500 would do.

I think it's a safe of investment as any, and it has the upside of actually being valuable in worst case scenario.  Plus it would be nice to use it.  Any investment which has a component of pleasure needs to be valued in that light, imo.

[littleman]

do you know something that we don't like an early warning sign from the sky or maybe inside information from some government source or have you always suffered from paranoia ?

Its an under-current in American culture, that and not trusting authority.

[grnidone]

One thing that has always stuck with me after I read the King Ranch story was a quote from Richard King himself.

"Buy Land and Never Sell."

[dogboy]

Then how does this fit w free land in Kansas?  I hear that more and more people from the country will migrate to cities in the near future. At the same time, someone needs to feed those cities. So I guess what we will see is less farmers, cultivating more ground, more intensively(?) or is it just a ratio thing and in absolute terms population in the country will still grow, just not as much as the cities will.

From what I understand, eastern Russia is seeing a massive exodus, as people move out of the country and into the cities. I guess subsistence farming isn't as glamorous as it is cracked up to be:)

[littleman]

DB, the big crunch there is petroleum based fertilizers, they have allowed for bigger yields to accommodate growing populations while total farm land is finite.  But many say that eventually petroleum based fertilizers are going to get to be too expensive to use as the cost of oil grows.  So, eventually food will become very expensive in terms of feeding the poor of the world.  Also, the cost of shipping food is going to cause food to be grown more locally too, so that's going to have a huge effect on how and what people eat.  

Meat is interesting, because some meat has a huge amount of grain in to meat out while others aren't so much -- I be Heather could talk more about this, biit I think beef is like 15 to 1 where chicken is only 2 to 1, so just switching the type of meat people eat has a huge affect.

I think populations will settle down as the world industrializes, in an agrarian village having children is an asset because you could put them to work in the field, but in a first world country you have another mouth to feed, another education to worry about.  We'll probably peak at 8 billion and then shrink back down.  In many industrialized countries they can't get their young adults to have enough children to keep the population levels at current levels, France, Japan, and South Korea for example.

Edit:  Sorry, it looks like you guys already covered some of this re:Ergophobe's post.

[grnidone]

>Then how does this fit w free land in Kansas? 

Define "this"...do you mean "this" as in the King Ranch quote, or "This" as in the thread?

And, I was just mentioning the free land in Kansas because you wanted land...*shrug* no other reason.

>I hear that more and more people from the country will migrate to cities in the near future.

Already happened.  Kansas and many other typically agrarian states are having brain drains of kids going to school and then leaving to get jobs.  As farmers get more productive, you need fewer of them.

[Gurtie]

not sure what its like in the US but in the UK its very hard to earn a living from farming now, of any type and any size. Large retailers tend to have a stranglehold on purchase prices and unless you can also diversify you don't earn a lot from growing crops/animals and selling them.

Luckily the interest in expanded agri industries (ice cream making, wildlife trails and kids paygrounds, direct farm sales, etc) is increasing which is keeping a lot of farmers in business right now.

This all means if you want to run a small farm for any purpose you either need to work really hard at it or be prepared to lose money. I'm not sure you could buy farmland for 'preparedness' here and not make a huge loss on your investment if it were just part of a longer term plan. Of course, if the shit hits the fan then its a worthwhile investment but if the shit really hits the fan then you could feed a famiy of four or six quite easily on less than an acre given you had access to water and some solar power and actually worked the land properly. No need to buy something huge unless you also have a plan to make money from it.

So fundamentally I don't think it adds up to buy a lot of land unless you have a plan. I would still love to own a farm here, but only if I could do everything else I wanted on one or two days consultancy work a week. I will, however, be happy to accept some free land in kansas just so I can sell it off at huge profit to people who visit my survivalist blog/amazon aff site

[agerhart]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110101/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_population

[grnidone]

This all means if you want to run a small farm for any purpose you either need to work really hard at it or be prepared to lose money.

Sweetheart, that applies to farming in general!  Farmers and fishermen gamble more than poker players in Vegas...

[dogboy]

Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.
...so, as you may recall, I went out to Colorado and checked out the farm I originally posted about and it really just seemed like the wrong place for several reasons.  

Today, I am still looking for property and zeroed in on a place in the mountains in N. Georgia on a lake called 'Chatuge'... Dras/rc, you guys ever been out this way? It looks good on satellite.  



Basically it's as high up in elevation as you can get East of the Mississippi, and it's as far south as the mountain ridge goes.  And in the center of this area are a few man made lakes, surrounded with a little private land, circled by National Forest and State and Fed Parks...

My plan is to use this as an excuse to look at property and go on one hell of a ride on the superbike.  It's about 12 hrs by car, or about 4 on my bike at night with no lights on.  hehehehe just kidding:) But strategically speaking, I like the looks of this place.  Surrounded by mountains, good water supply, moderate winters for the mountains, decent growing season, good hunting/fishing.... and it's a pretty place, a nice place to unplug.  I could just imagine myself nestled in my fallout shelter/gun turret... I mean 'wildlife observation deck' sipping coffee:)

I just lowered the price on my house down here and if/when it sells I'm ready to change gears and reinvest in something a little more remote.  Anyone ever been up this way?  I've been 'around', but not 'through' this area.

[Drastic]

Never heard of it, but that area is beautiful. Crisp, clean air, not far from the Smokies. Lots of mountains and trees.

I suspect it's very much like surrounding areas which I am familiar with - lots of tree huggers, secluded, lots of fun outdoorsy type stuff to do, but can be pricey.

If you can find something cheap, probably a good spot for what you want. Perfect for hunting/fishing I suspect, but the growing part I'm not sure. I have no knowledge of growing whatsoever, but the mountainous terrain is often rocky and it's cloudy a lot, and I see a lot of red clay in your photo. I'm sure it's do-able but I doubt it's as easy as elsewhere.

Be careful with lakefront, find out what the levels are like going back for years. Right now one of our lakes is very low leaving many (most?) docks on all dry land. Can be a good time to buy though, but just factor in the risk of what it might be like when you need to sell. The lake is smallish so this may not be a big boating lake making this less of a factor. In your photo the level looks down quite a bit.

[dogboy]

>Never heard of it
me neither. I picked it looking at the whole country.  I like that green doughnut around it and that the only flat parts, in the middle, are private. I've even seen properties bordered on three sides by NF.

>pricey
yeah, I noticed that.  I'm going to look for something foreclosed.  The idea is to sink the money in land, not a house... maybe even a barn, or something little that eventually would become a guest/bunk house.  I still have a really nice 35' 5th-wheel (with pop-outs and a toy garage in the back) I'd like to leave up there until I build a place, so a barn or a big garage would work.

>areas which I am familiar with
You have any places in mind that might fit my bill? Places you like, in particular?  Any tips?

[Drastic]

Well the area you're looking at is perfect. If I were to build or buy something in the mountains that type of area and surrounding is great. The only problem is the cool areas with stuff to do cost. That and the wife seems to like civilization for some reason.

My dad would probably have some good ideas, he has a business location in Western N Carolina, and knows the area better than I. I'll ask him.

[dogboy]

Please do. 

I think I'm going to head up there by the end of the month, depending on weather.  I'm looking forward to getting the bike in the mountains and curves.