Author Topic: Being prepared!  (Read 23916 times)

ergophobe

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 04:55:18 PM »
I'm genuinely scared... even if I could be sure "my side" would win a revolution/civil war, I would be scared because no matter which side you are on, winning or losing, you do not want to live through a civil war.

rcjordan

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 05:01:40 PM »
I have a liberal friend who is a bleeding heart for the working poor. He keeps talking about living wage, higher minimum wage, etc. as well as the continuing hollowing-out of the middle class here in the US ...all valid concerns. He also wonders 'Where's the revolution? What will it take?"

>scared

When my friend sees a revolution, Debbie says it ain't going to be the revolution he's picturing but more like Watts, Baltimore, or the London riots.

littleman

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 05:35:01 PM »
No one would win a civil war.  If you read through this you will see a long history of Americans thinking that their beliefs are worth more than human life.  Very little of it actually spurred any change; often they end up having the opposite effect as the other side digs in.

ergophobe

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 10:12:48 PM »
Well, I'm pretty liberal, but I'm also a historian of early-modern Europe (that was my main profession from 1988 to 2010). So though not a scholar of revolution per se, I nevertheless feel qualified to say that your friend is a delusional idiot.

Revolutions are nasty business, even if you are one of the winners. Just ask Robespierre and Trotsky. I think Americans have the mistaken idea that our war of independence was a revolution or, at worst, that the revolution will look like the Civil War. I expect it will be much worse and I do not want to live to see it.

buckworks

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 10:18:04 PM »
>> mistaken idea that our war of independence was a revolution

Please say more about that. If it wasn't a revolution, what was it?

I'm a Canadian with lots of gaps in my knowledge of US history!

rcjordan

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:56 PM »
>Just ask Robespierre

My thought as well. Verbatim, in fact.

>Civil War

Where the Gatling Gun was the gee-whiz war tech of the day.

>delusional idiot

I've told him that it's my job to retrieve the wispy vestiges of reality from his thoughts, hhh.

ergophobe

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 03:46:35 AM »
>> mistaken idea that our war of independence was a revolution

Please say more about that. If it wasn't a revolution, what was it?

It was a war of colonial independence. Off the cuff, I would propose a typology like this

1. Revolution.
This is like the French Revolution, the Soviet Revolution. The people who believe themselves to be oppressed by those in power attempt a "revolution" meaning an overturning of power and those at the top go to the bottom and those at the bottom go to the top. The goal is to remake the social order. It never works like that, but that's the idea and that's why it's such a messy business and why there are ebbs and flows and purges - nobody has any clear idea of when the revolution is over.

2. Revolt
This is like the Northern Rising in England or perhaps the Fronde in France or any number of peasant or noble revolts. The goal is not to overturn the social order, but to get specific demands met - cheaper bread, relief from an onerous tax, etc. The goal is the same social order, but with a little more consideration for the people who got upset enough to revolt. The revolt is over when the revolters get what they want or get violently put down. In a revolution, the king is bad. In a revolt, the king has bad ministers and if we can only get the ear of the good king, all will be set right.

3. War of Independence
The American Revolution. We didn't free the slaves, take away land from the landed gentry or really change the social order at all. We merely told the king to bugger off. Otherwise the social order was hardly changed. The war is over when the colony governs itself. Think of how radically the social order in Canada would have to change in order for Canada to quit being a monarchy and become a republic. Would anyone even notice? In a war of independence, the king may or may not be bad, but he has no business telling us what to do. In other words, he's a legitimate king, he's just not legitimately *our* king.

4. War of Secession
That's like the American Civil War. The main difference between this and #3 is that the breakaway state is not a colony, but part of the state it is seceding from. But again, the idea is not typically to overturn the fundamental social order, but rather for those who think they should be in power if not for the central government to actually be in power. In our case, the Civil War was fought because the people seceding wanted to avoid changing the social order, not because they wanted a revolution. Quite the opposite.

5. Civil War. Sort of like a revolution, but without a utopian social agenda. Think Rwanda and ex-Yugoslavia. True nastiness
https://www.amazon.com/Wish-Inform-Tomorrow-Killed-Families/dp/0312243359

So in this thread, we're talking about #1. And as nasty as #4 is, the one you really don't want to live through is #1 or its close brother #5 because they are going to be the hardest ones to hide from.

In some cases, what you call it is a political choice. Traditionally, leftist historians liked to talk about the English Revolution while more conservative historians prefer the term English Civil War.

And of course, the American Civil War was a Civil War but, again, as nasty as it was, for the man in the street, at least if you're on the winning side and not of draft age, it's not all that bad living in New York during the war. But in #1, Paris and Moscow were very dangerous places no matter who you were. And in #5, well, you might wake up tomorrow and find your neighbor who was at your cookout last month hacking the legs off your daughter with a machete.

There is a French/Romanian philosopher named Emile Cioran who said that he liked to frequent criminals because they only kill one person at a time, while under saints they die by the millions. By "saints" he meant Robespierre, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Cromwell and all the people who promised utopia at the expense of just a few million, or perhaps one hundred million, peasants (I believe the estimated death toll from Mao's famines was over 100 million).
« Last Edit: November 03, 2016, 03:53:20 AM by ergophobe »

ergophobe

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 03:50:14 AM »
>delusional idiot

I've told him that it's my job to retrieve the wispy vestiges of reality from his thoughts, hhh.

I meant that, BTW, in the nicest possible ways. We all have our delusions and it is terrifically helpful, albeit annoying, to have friends and wives willing to point them out.

Mackin USA

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 11:03:05 AM »
Mr. Mackin

buckworks

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 03:22:39 PM »
Quote
BUT

There's trouble in the wind. Bad vibes from multiple directions.

In the face of growing unease I think it makes sense to get our households stocked up so we could last for several weeks without having to go out much. If nothing bad happens we can just eat our supplies.

The time to stock up is now while store shelves are full and supply lines are functional. Hoarding doesn't create moral questions if you gather your goods when conditions are good. In a crisis, your neighbours would benefit from the fact that you won't need to be in line ahead of them once supplies are limited. And of course you'd be more able to help others directly if you had stuff on hand. The ideal community would have everyone well stocked to ride out a crisis.

ergophobe

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2016, 03:34:49 PM »
Quote
BUT

There's trouble in the wind.

I think we're in a "make it break it" time. The sociologist Norbert Elias had a concept called the "threshold of shame." Basically, before reaching the threshold there are things you don't discuss because they are either so normal (spitting on the floor during dinner) or so abnormal (same sex marriage), that they don't come up at all. Then over time, the culture changes and you see these things crop up lots (such as in the manners books of the late Middle Ages or the media of today, respectively). Then things exit the threshold either through advance or retreat and they fade into the background again.

I think we're seeing that in so many ways right now and far beyond manner and morals. We have a convergence of so many "threshold" issues that we're either going to deal with or not. Everything from cultural divides to perpetual deficit spending to climate disruption to income inequality (local and global) to how we handle automation and so forth. All the stuff we talk about here every day, but seems absent from CNN and Fox news, which is a problem, because so many people are thinking such short term. I feel that a sense of urgency about these problems is more important than one's solution. In other words, if people recognized that these are urgent issues, it would be much easier to get people on different sides of the issue to compromise and collaborate (this is empirically demonstrated - the longer your time horizon, the easier it is for people to see common interests and therefore come to compromise on solutions).

littleman

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2016, 06:00:30 PM »
>There's trouble in the wind. Bad vibes from multiple directions.

I don't think these times are any more tumultuous than the 1960s or 1970s.  I agree that we have serious problems looming, but I don't think its quite time to load up the shotguns.  Don't get me wrong, I think everyone should have emergency supplies and safety plans.  That said, I feel like too many people are all about surviving the 'end game' instead of thinking hard and taking action to prevent the ax from falling on them.

buckworks

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2016, 03:33:47 AM »
>> emergency supplies and safety plans

My mission for now is to stock our pantry so we could go for several weeks without shopping. We have lots already but need to fill some gaps in the menu planning. That would help us get through several kinds of trouble including bad winter weather which is a certainty where I live.

I'm also going to do more work on my grab-and-go bag.

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Mackin USA

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2016, 11:21:33 AM »
SHE SAID:
The time to stock up is now while store shelves are full and supply lines are functional. Hoarding doesn't create moral questions if you gather your goods when conditions are good. In a crisis, your neighbours would benefit from the fact that you won't need to be in line ahead of them once supplies are limited. And of course you'd be more able to help others directly if you had stuff on hand. The ideal community would have everyone well stocked to ride out a crisis.

I totally agree!

PS: we own no guns
Mr. Mackin

Brad

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Re: Being prepared!
« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2016, 11:30:59 AM »
> prevent the ax from falling on them.

Well said.

It's good to be prepared, like buckworks has outlined, but that is just one tool.

The other is about us and the communities we live in, our countries, how we conduct ourselves, and how we treat others.  "No man is an island" applies here. We have to work with others to keep things going, to work out differences, to maintain civil discourse, civil liberties and civil order.  And somehow, taking the high road is important, more important than we know.