The Core

> old timers

Quote in the Guardian newspaper:

"A generation given everything: free education, golden pensions, social mobility, have voted to strip my generation’s future.”

I lived in Switzerland during the vote. When the Confederatio Helvetica voted no, people blamed the bakwards farmers (it was the rural no vote that carried the day). Doom and gloom. Catastrophe. CH left behind.

When the Iron Curtain came down, I wrote an essay... I wonder if I could find it... saying that I thought the long-term fate of the EU had been decided too. Without the deep polarization between East and West, it always seemed to me that the unions of mutual defense (not just NATO and the EU, but the UK and France) would feel a decentralizing pressure.

People forget that 150 years ago, the majority of people in France as we know it today did not even speak French. They forget that when the Prussians invaded, hatred for the central govt in Paris was so great that the French frontier regions locked their doors when the French army retreated and then came out to meet the Prussians with bread and wine.

There is a dual pressure from technology that pushes for centralization of the economy and decetralization of the society and polity. In the US we see this in the form of what they call The Big Sort.

I'm not sure what I'm trying to say or if I'm trying to say anything at all except that I'm surprised the EU experiment has lasted this long, but I don't think it's accidental that we're seeing the highwater mark (probably) just as the generation with personal memories of WWII exits the stage.

For them, the dream of the EU was a Europe at peace. For the current generation, it's about the economy. The economy was the means. Now it's the ends.

I don't know... I'm just an American spouting off. Not sure if any of that resonates at all with the Euros and Brits in the crowd. What do you think?

Thanks for the perspective.

Those are the types of issues I was thinking of as wall fell. I felt that the long-term was more likely to bring Breton independence than European Union. I wasn't as tapped into the UK situation and did not see Scotland on the horizon.

But the idea that without an absolute survival need to be in bed with so many countries with substantially different cultures, the survival of the EU always seemed like a longshot.

I should say, that as a historian my focus is the sixteenth century, so I tend to take a long view. I didn't not necessarily think the EU would disintegrate in my lifetime. But I think all the forces you mention that came to the fore recently, have always been latent.

I bet this ends up being an exit-light by the time all the negotiation is done; something where there is a free trade agreement, easy travel between the UK and the EU, financial commitments will be fulfilled and the UK will have to comply with most EU regulations. 

> exit-light

That would be the sensible option. But with the fervour that's been stoked up, I'm not sure how politically possible it would be.

I think it's great.

The establishment have not been listening and it's f###ed them over.

It was pretty much London and poor people. All politicians suck. They have to rethink.

> how long do you think London and the SE will be willing to continue subsidising the rest of the country

Forever.

My only hope for Blighty and Europe as a whole, is whoever takes on the mantle of negotiations with the EU actually negotiates for change within the EU and in a year, we vote in another referendum to remain in the EU and end the Article 50(2) process.

I actually doubt that will happen and in practical terms we'll likely exit free trade to and from Europe, freedom of movement of people from "old EU member countries" but no freedom of movement for "new EU member countries" .

This will lead to huge job opportunities within the UK and immigration from new sources to fill these roles.

As old EU member country citizens won't fill those roles, we'll look back to the Commonwealth and allow free movement and easy access to incomers from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and India then the man on the street will feel even more aggrieved as the new wave of incomers will not only not speak like Little Jonny, but also not look like little Jonny.

 In 10 years the nation will be in no better position than Italy or Spain, albeit without the weather, and economically and emotionally bankrupt with a huge rise in organisations and political parties even further to the right of Farage's UKIP.

This will lead to us allowing long term visas to Eastern European's that in effect place us in the same position we were when in the EU and without any say on how the organisation is run.

In 20 years time we'll be back to the status quo we have now.