The Core

They are already testing out self-driving rubbish trucks in some countries. Taking what was once a 3 person job to a one person position. 

"Believe it or not, this week Detroit, America’s big automakers, are saying they want to take gasoline out of the car business. Here’s what GM’s chief of global product development said Monday: “General Motors believes in an all-electric future.” As in electric cars. They don’t exactly have a choice. China and Europe and California are in the driver’s seat. And they want electric. Self-driving cars will be electric. And Detroit is going. This hour, On Point: Here comes the electric car future, for real."

http://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2017/10/04/electric-car-ford-gm

>They don’t exactly have a choice. China and Europe and California are in the driver’s seat.

US auto manufacturers don't have a snowball's chance in hell of maintaining their dominance in the new order that's emerging.  The rapidly approaching future is one of sensors, algorithms, and 3d printers --all of which are converging to displace their old, familiar electro-mech technology. Their precarious position parallels that of print media when the internet hit.

Once we get past the cost of bleeding edge development, it's going to be far cheaper to produce a vehicle, too. Margins will be razor-thin, though.  Dealerships will be squeezed out.

>polo

Watch India.  Tata, Mahindra, or similar are probably going to crack the 2nd-world market.

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/ce5DCpEBco3rOhzR6CUDAN/Mahindra-matches-Tata-Motorss-EV-tender-bid-to-supply-150.html

>autonomous

I think we're going to see 2 stages here in the US. Electric first, then autonomous EVs.

>Margins will be razor-thin

Especially when the majority of ownership shifts to Uber, Lyft, etc.. Which tech company will be the first to buy a major auto manufacturer?

>a major auto manufacturer

I wouldn't touch a US manufacturer because of their legacy issues --pensions, wages, obsolete facilities, and assorted rustbelt issues-- to name a few.  Besides, they'll be cheaper when they file bankruptcy.

>Land Rover Defender a new vintage London black cab or a new vintage Checker Marathon

Funny you should mention Checker.  The Checker and the VW Beetle had a model of production that Debbie says will resurface with future auto production --rebuildable cars with a long life cycle.

>autonomous
But will people buy them?

When your insurance company tells you that the car without the steering wheel will be $500/yr to insure and the one with the steering wheel will be $2500, that will start to be an incentive both for the cost savings and for the message it sends.

But obviously, insurance companies will be crunching the numbers, so it will have to be born out by the stats before that happens, so early adopters will not get those benefits. Over the long term, though, auto insurance rates will drop IMO and companies will start penalizing the remaining, self-selecting demographic that wants to mess with the wheel.

I see piloted vehicles becoming like horses - something most people will drive at the track and in recreational areas. There's still a guy in the nearest town to me who rides his horse to the grocery store and I suppose in 50 years there will be people driving their cars... but they'll pay a lot more in car insurance than the cowboy pays in horse insurance.

All this talk about electric cars is fine for compact places like most of Europe and cities like NYC, but you're gonna have to greatly increase the range and decrease the charge time for North America before they become a primary vehicle. I think we are going to see combustion /electric cars here for a very long time because of our distances.  Now the combustion part might not be burning fossil fuels and that could be good.

In the US its not like we have a lot of alternatives for long distance travel, airlines are worse than a Greyhound bus was in the 70's and we've gutted our passenger rail network.