The Core

you're gonna have to greatly increase the range and decrease the charge time  

Recent Headline: asphalt-lithium batteries charge 10-20 times faster than current lithium batteries
https://phys.org/news/2017-10-asphalt-lithium-batteries-faster.html

Headline from a few months ago: graphene in lithium batteries triples energy density
https://phys.org/news/2017-05-graphene-nanotube-hybrid-boosts-lithium-metal.html#nRlv

There is a lot of battery tech in the labs that seems like it has a decent chance of being commercialized within a decade

>There is a lot of battery tech

Agreed, and I'm hopeful.  The fellow who invented li-on recently announced a better battery. He ought to know. (and he's in his 90's)

>4wd

Here on the flats, we really don't need it AND you pay an insurance premium because you *might* take it off-road (though, IIRC, 90⁺% of 4wd vehicles never leave the pavement).

But there might be leaves on the driveway

When we lived in the Bay Area, I was always doing this analysis for (or maybe "on") people. What you would hear all the time is "I need a 4WD because sometimes I like to go to Tahoe in the winter."

So I would ask how long do you keep your cars (typical answer: 10 years) and how many times to you go to Tahoe in the winter (typical answer: 10) and how many times did you have to put on chains (typical answer: "OH God, all the time. Like six times last winter."

You can hire a chain installer to do it for you for $40. Did you do that? "No"

"Why not?"

"That's too much money. For $40, I'd do it myself."

"So you wouldn't pay $40 to sit in your warm car and let someone else get cold and wet?"

"No. It only takes ten minutes. That's like $240 per hour."

So then I would say
 - looking at vehicles that have 4WD and 2WD versions, on average you pay about $3500 for AWD. But since you don't actually need an SUV-sized vehicle, that's $5000 extra
 - you give up 2-3 mpg just by adding the 4WD and all the associated extras, but at least 5mpg relative to what you would get if you didn't need 4WD and perhaps as much as 10mpg - at least $500/yr, so $5000 over the life of the car
 - then TCO goes up because insurance is higher, drivetrain repairs are higher. Say at least $4000 over the life of the car.

So that's $14,000. Let's be conservative and say $12,000

So you went to Tahoe 10 times. How many times did you have to apply chains? "Oh God. All the time. Like six times last year."

Okay so 12,000/10 years/6 times per year = $100 for every incident where you avoid putting on chains.

By your calculation, it only takes ten minutes, so you're paying $600/hr to avoid having to put on chains.

Needless to say, this exercise neither won friends nor influenced people.

>Needless to say, this exercise neither won friends nor influenced people.

Hhh! Back in the 80s I used to do something similar to all the guys who put in fireplace inserts and started burning wood to save on their power bill.  Add in the cost of remodeling, a chainsaw, a trailer, and -of course- the obligatory new 4wd pickup truck and they would be better off paying $1/kw ...but they didn't want to hear that.

I don't use my 4wd very often at all, but when I do, I need it.

Don't get me wrong. I was not telling people they shouldn't be buying a 4WD. I was telling them their reasons were jacked.

I asked one friend and she said "I'm a middle-aged woman, single and driving a Jeep Wrangler makes me feel younger, hipper and more desireable." I didn't argue with that because you can't. She made the decision for what I would call the right reason. I mean, it wasn't bullshit. She decided it was worth the cost and the uncomfortable ride and so forth because of the way it made her feel. Only she knew the price of that.

Of course, this is the same woman who I ran through the numbers and convinced her to sell her home and who, two years later, told me it was the decision she had ever made. So she was clear-eyed

Lazy is a powerful motivation.

I leased a Jeep Wrangler I quickly figured out that I could blast down my driveway after a good snow without having to shovel first. Liking that I bought a awd Subaru to replace it when the time came.

Put chains on the rear drive wheels of a VW kombi van and you can go anywhere. Well, anywhere until you climb a tall, steep snow drift and stand the damn van on its rear end.