Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

Dow sinks again, putting December performance at risk as the worst since 1931

[Rupert]

UK house prices set to tumble:
https://www.hertsad.co.uk/property/rightmove-reports-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-since-2012-1-5823358

[Mackin USA]

The European Project Comes To An End

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-21/european-project-comes-end

[Rupert]

Its not quite like that in France  

[nffc]

More than 30,000 UK retailers in 'significant' financial distress

Data shows online retailers not immune from shopping slump in lead-up to this Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/23/high-street-online-uk-retailers-significant-financial-distress-christmas-shopping

[Mackin USA]

Christmas shopping continues to rise year after year. With sales rising over a trillion dollars there seems to no slow down to the amount of spending that Christmas shoppers will make.

https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

[nffc]

> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.

[littleman]

Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging

Alarmed investors drove the Dow more than 650 points lower in a shortened trading session on Monday. Markets plunged after the Trump administration sent out confusing signals about markets and the economy.

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq was off 2.2%. The Dow, which fell 2.9%, and the S&P 500 suffered their biggest Christmas Eve declines ever.

Stocks initially fell on Monday following a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that he had checked on the health of the country's largest banks.

The market recovered late morning, but then slid even lower after President Donald Trump tweeted: "The only problem our economy has is the Fed." Investors are concerned that Trump may fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

That's a 15 month low.

[aaron]

Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging
That's a 15 month low.

I think the point of doing the "just checking in" with the bank CEOs & then publicly announcing it was to boost uncertainty rather than boost confidence. Somebody has to eat the loss & the faster it happens while being closely tied to a Fed rate raise the easier it is to blame the Fed & the harder it is for the Fed to raise rates again. Then Trump gets to claim he "saved the world" when he strikes a watered down trade deal with China.

[Mackin USA]

Mnuchin Fucked Up

[littleman]

Wow Aaron.

[Mackin USA]

California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

[nffc]

HMV calls in administrators

"...blamed a "tsunami" of retail challenges, including business rate levels and the move to digital."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46699290

[littleman]

California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

Fortunately, we have a good budget reserve ATM. 

[Mackin USA]

LM:

True BUT
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php