Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/28/chinas-smartphone-shipments-dropped-14-percent-in-2018/

China’s smartphone shipments dropped 14 percent in 2018
...
Much of what’s at play here is a familiar story all over. A matured market means upgrade cycles have slowed down, as more users are choosing to hold onto handsets for longer. Even more pronounced, however, is a combination of slowed economic growth and lowered purchasing power in the country.

[rcjordan]

Deutsche Bank Says German Economy Is Drifting Toward Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/deutsche-bank-says-german-economy-is-drifting-toward-recession

[Mackin USA]

TAKE THIS TO THE BANK 

Mr. Mackin predicts no recession in the USA in the near future.

[rcjordan]

More bad news: Street sees Q1 profits declining and full-year growth rates cut in half
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/more-bad-news-street-sees-q1-profits-declining-and-full-year-growth-rates-cut-in-half.html

[Drastic]

My personal feeling is we'll ride this out for about the next year and a half until election time. It'll be rocky here and there but will remain relatively stable overall. Then, I think we'll see the real swing either starting or maybe already starting to be felt around Q1 2021.

This is the timing I'm sorta counting on so, a bit biased maybe.

[rcjordan]

Bank of England sees weakest UK outlook since 2009 on Brexit, global slowdown | Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe/bank-of-england-sees-weakest-outlook-for-uk-since-2009-on-brexit-world-slowdown-idUKKCN1PW1BO

[rcjordan]

Uh-oh, average 2018 tax refund $$ is down over 8%. 

Filing Season Statistics for Week Ending February 1, 2019 | Internal Revenue Service
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-february-1-2019

[littleman]

8% is huge.  The 2018 tax reform is doing its damage.

[rcjordan]

>huge

I've read in the past that a large number of families use their tax refund as a forced savings account. Add to that the more recent reports  finding that 40% of the nation can't scrape up $400 in an emergency and you've got a recipe for a potentially massive downturn in consumer sentiment and spending. Hence, this post under "Recession."

[DrCool]

>>tax refund as a forced savings account

I am HORRIBLE at saving. I have a few different services that automatically take some money and tuck it away but for the most part if it is in my account I spend it. It is nice getting a big chunk all at once in the spring to do stuff like pay for a vacation, buy furniture, tires for the van, etc. that cost more than a couple hundred bucks. I haven't updated my withholding since I started my current job 5 years ago and we have added 2 kids.

[rcjordan]

The economy is like Jenga...

Main Street pares back its economic outlook - Axios
https://www.axios.com/main-street-expectations-for-economy-drop-1852609a-2846-4a00-96df-f65b60289eff.html

[rcjordan]

A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/a-record-number-of-americans-are-90-days-behind-on-their-car-payments.html

[Drastic]

Came to post that. It seems they are cherry picking the numbers, going by this:

https://www.finder.com/car-loan-statistics

Since 2010 we've increased a million accounts behind 90 days, but we've grown about 30 million accounts total. So, overall it was about 8% of total loans then and the new loans are less than 4%, bringing the overall to around 6.5 currently.

Seems about right to me?

[littleman]

U.S. National Debt Hits Record $22 Trillion

The U.S. government's public debt is now more than $22 trillion — the highest it has ever been. The Treasury Department data comes as tax revenue has fallen and federal spending continues to rise. The new debt level reflects a rise of more than $2 trillion from the day President Trump took office in 2017.

[Mackin USA]

Both parties MUST stop spending money we do not have.

It will be painful BUT must be done!