Author Topic: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??  (Read 20427 times)

Mackin USA

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So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« on: July 06, 2015, 01:53:05 PM »
"The EU’s old, outdated ideas have been rejected at the ballot box in exchange for a new approach and fresh thinking.

The result is a tired, stumbling European Union that is dying on its feet before our very eyes. Credibility for the project is fading fast as citizens right across Europe awaken to the reality of its authoritarian instincts that seek to run roughshod over public opinion."

 ??? ??? ???

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11720081/Greece-votes-No-The-European-Union-is-dying-before-our-eyes.html
Mr. Mackin

ergophobe

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2015, 02:52:46 PM »
I'm not a Euro, but I think there was no good vote for the Greeks. As I understand it, a yes vote meant crippling austerity but a no vote means an inevitable exit from the euro zone and though they will then be able print drachmas to their heart's content, the drachmas would be virtually worthless for buying foreign goods. So no matter how you cut it, the Greeks are in for austerity and the EU is probably stronger without them.

That fact highlights the weakness of the EU. Historically, the US would be a lot stronger without much of the Deep South. Right now possibly stronger without Michigan, though many parts of MI are doing really well. But in general there are massive "donor" states like California, Texas and New York who run at a "profit" and massive recipient states (mostly Republican and southern by the way). But we don't talk about the dissolution of the union because some state isn't meeting it's fiscal targets.

Two observations
 - this is really sad for the Greeks.
 - Based on the last available numbers which are, granted, rather old at this point, Greece is the second worst country in the world in terms of debt/income ratio. The US is #3

The US is #11 in terms of debt/gdp, but in terms of debt/revenue from taxes (i.e. actual ability to pay bills)

Quote
Japan is still #1, with a debt as a percentage of tax revenue of about 900 percent and Greece is still in second place at about 475 percent. The big change is the U.S. jumps up to third place, with a debt to income measure of 408 percent. To add a bit more perspective, the countries in fourth, fifth, and sixth place are Iceland, Portugal, and Italy, all between 300 and 310 percent.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2014/07/12/forget-debt-as-a-percent-of-gdp-its-really-much-worse/

So let's all talk about how the Greeks lived beyond their means, thought they were rich when they were poor, did not manage expenses versus revenue. Let's all talk about how they got what was coming. And let's all just hope we're not in Japan, the US, Iceland, Portugal or Italy.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2015, 03:00:13 PM by ergophobe »

Brad

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2015, 03:10:23 PM »
Also not a Euro.

1. It is very sad for the Greeks.
2. UK and Denmark were very wise not to join the Euro common currency. Unlike a national currency which are generally backed by the full faith and credit of a nation state, the Euro is backed by only ledger sheets, Bank Gnomes and the promises of politicians.
3. The EU needs to decide if it really wants to be a free trade zone or a United States of Europe.
4. I wish all of them good luck though.

Mackin USA

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2015, 03:53:12 PM »
"UK and Denmark were very wise not to join the Euro common currency."

Agree

Mr. Mackin

JasonD

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2015, 03:57:44 PM »
The vast difference between Europe and the conglomeration of States, known as the US, that the EU was trying to replicate; are two core factors.

Common currency and common language. It could be argued there is a 3rd of common culture, but anyone who has travelled throughout the US will note the differences the further you travel.

The common currency was step one for the EU towards the United States of Europe, but the culture and language differences meant it would never work. A large part of that is due to the historical normalities of PIG states* to deal in cash and rarely pay tax on income.

As such, it was doomed to fail. However, I do echo ergophobe's points. There was no good outcome for Greece, but this way they have the feeling of control, if not the true power of it.

Europe is dead, long live Europe....





*Portugal Ireland/Italy Greece Spain.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2015, 04:49:53 PM by JasonD »

ergophobe

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2015, 04:24:35 PM »
And Thomas Piketty weighs in with the observation that Germany is the one country in Europe that has NEVER repaid its debts and the German Economic Miracle was as much as anything the product of the 1953 London accords to forgive German debt.

http://www.zeit.de/2015/26/thomas-piketty-schulden-griechenland/komplettansicht (I'm sure y'all know how to use Google Translate)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Agreement_on_German_External_Debts - note that listed among the creditor nations who forgave German debt was.... Greece

ergophobe

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2015, 04:40:12 PM »
Common currency and common language. It could be argued there is a 3rd of common culture, but anyone who has travelled throughout the US will note the differences the further you travel.

And yet, Switzerland. Common currency, but three languages. Geneva has been part of Switzerland for a shorter time than my home state, Vermont, has been part of the US. But no matter how much Geneva screws up its finances, I just don't see Basel and Zurich wanting to kick Geneva out of the Federation. Both the US and Switzerland have very strong senses of national identity, regardless of how federal they may or may not be. The truly charged rivalries and hatreds between states/cantons is mostly reserved for sports contests.

It's interesting that of all the nations of Europe who refused to be an EU member state at all, it was the one that was already a currency union between regions of different language and history. And that decision was largely the result of "backwards farmers" who voted against the urban elites, who almost universally thought the vote spelled an end to Swiss prosperity.

JasonD

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2015, 04:44:12 PM »
> .ch : 3 languages.

Yet Germanic in all of the culture, at least when it comes to business (at least in my, admittedly limited, dealings there) . I think that massively trumps the language issues :)

ergophobe

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2015, 04:52:31 PM »
Yet Germanic in all of the culture

I know Swiss people who would shoot you for that. But afterwards they'd feel guilty and say "Maybe that guy was right."

Anyway, that was my point - I think it's a sense of shared cultural identity that makes the Swiss and US unions work, not language or currency.

ergophobe

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2015, 04:53:07 PM »

JasonD

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2015, 04:59:28 PM »
Quote
I know Swiss people who would shoot you for that. But afterwards they'd feel guilty and say "Maybe that guy was right."

Anyway, that was my point - I think it's a sense of shared cultural identity that makes the Swiss and US unions work, not language or currency.

And I think your points and examples have turned me. I now agree, especially so, if you include language being a subset (or at least related to) culture...

Mackin USA

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2015, 08:51:56 PM »
"Now, as Greece's unsustainable situation becomes clear, and as others -- Spain and Portugal, for example -- the Euro itself is under challenge. That is not surprising, given the Euro's peculiar status as a currency without a government."

John Bolton former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Mr. Mackin

BoL

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2015, 10:30:07 PM »
Spain should be OK, they've raised their GDP forecast to 3.3%. The UK gave Ireland a large loan a few years back. Greece seems like the only casualty just now...

ergophobe

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2015, 11:33:19 PM »
if you include language being a subset (or at least related to) culture...

Sure. And that can get thorny in many parts of the US. And you certainly see how fundamental language is in, say, the Irish, Breton and Basque situations. That, by the way, is what has always made me sceptical of the whole EU project.

For decades the French imposed draconian measure to suppress Breton culture, but that is no longer considered acceptable. It doesn't seem that the Bretons have enough cultural momentum to move for independence, so the French seem to have won, but if there were a Breton revival, I could see that change and evolve to a situation more like Scotland.

All of which (Scotland, Brittany, Basque) make the Swiss situation so much more instructive.

Brad

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Re: So, what do you Euro MFs think ??
« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2015, 01:12:20 AM »
Bilingual countries are inherently politically unstable.  Which makes a United States of Europe almost impossible.