Noboddy wins a trade war
The middle class certainly could. They've been screwed for at least 3 to 4 decades with the trade policies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3pf1qVrBz8When visiting family in rural town in a southern state the local economy looked quite bombed out. There's a Wal-mart, but there are likely more choices/variation in payday loan providers in the town than in even fast food restaurants.
Many first world countries charge a VAT which ultimately ends up as a relative tax on imports, while the US does not charge one, which acts as a subsidy to foreign produced goods on a relative basis. And then the inefficient healthcare system chuck full of fraud is yet another tithing on domestic production.
There probably aren't two economies more intertwined than Canada and the USA. I don't think the stock market is convinced this is going to happen yet.
The markets are absolutely ambivalent toward trade war risks though. If they were not then some of the corporate debt prices would look like a more extreme blow out of what happened in Italy recently.
A couple weeks ago when the media pitched that there will be no trade wars I thought that would have been a great time to buy a put option on some of the dollar store retailers. Stores like WalMart have resilient global supply chains where they can pick from numerous countries, but the smaller & fast-growth competitors would be hit far harder by a trade war.