Oh sigh... mostly news that I've heard before, some as far back as
Cadillac Desert (1986), but it's still depressing. Maybe more so in that so little has been done. If we had acted rationally when the problems were first elucidated, the fixes would have been fairly painless. Forty years of obstruction, delay and false narratives funded with millions and millions of dollars from Exxon and the Koch Brothers have backed us into a terrible corner.
Part of the problem is that most policies look only 12 months into the future, ignoring long-term trends even as insurance availability influences development and drives people’s long-term decision-making.
This is a major reason for not being able to get fire insurance. Regulators only let insurance companies base premiums on past payouts. But it is so clear we have entered an era when past payouts are a poor indicator of future payouts. Meanwhile, the hefty $8000 price tag on my insurance is almost certainly deeply underpriced. That price basically is a bet by the insurance company that my house will not burn down in the next 50 years. That seems absurd. The fair-market price of my insurance is probably $12,000 per year, maybe $16,000, which starts to make moving back to Vermont look awfully attractive.
My whole retirement strategy at this point is based on having enough foresight to get out before property here becomes impossible to sell due to running out of water (very hard to predict, could happen tomorrow), lack of insurance (thus can only sell to cash buyer who can self-insure) or general fear about fires, water, insurance.
