Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: ukgimp on January 25, 2020, 02:07:05 PM

Title: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on January 25, 2020, 02:07:05 PM
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/01/new-coronavirus-spreading-between-humans-how-it-started/

I'm going to buy a serious air rifle and some masks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 25, 2020, 02:58:00 PM
You should have been paying attention during our prepper threads.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 25, 2020, 03:07:00 PM
Before you get a gun, stock up on groceries, meds and other supplies so you could get by for a few weeks without needing to go out.

And maybe some new board games.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 25, 2020, 03:32:06 PM
Country facing a grave situation, warns President Xi - HK News
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1504840-20200125.htm
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on January 25, 2020, 07:10:16 PM
5-6 day incubation time. This thing has potential.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 25, 2020, 07:46:49 PM
Where's Dustin Hoffman when we need him?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 25, 2020, 07:58:14 PM
Coronavirus 2020 Heat Map
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 25, 2020, 08:11:34 PM
>5-6 day incubation

So, are people contagious during the incubation period?

>Before you get a gun, stock up on groceries, meds and other supplies so you could get by for a few weeks without needing to go out.

Yeah, might get to the point where it would be best to stay inside.  I can't see the virus causing a mad max scenario just yet.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 25, 2020, 08:21:13 PM
>inside

Outside SE Asia, I think that urban areas with diverse, transient international populations are the highest risk.  Airports, tourist areas, and -maybe- universities might be the first hot spots.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 25, 2020, 08:31:32 PM
Was thinking this too, the Bay Area is probably among the most likely to have an outbreak if it happens in North America.  My wife went to an Asian grocery store yesterday (to prep for Chinese New Year), she said a lot of people were wearing masks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on January 26, 2020, 02:57:31 AM
>5-6 day incubation
>So, are people contagious during the incubation period?

Latest info is up to 14 days incubation, unknown if contagious before symptomatic.
Humans in 2020 can cover a lot of ground over 14 days.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 26, 2020, 05:27:13 AM
>> get to the point where it would be best to stay inside.

Disruptions to normal supply lines because of quarantines etc. could create many difficulties even if the disease never reached your area.

Stock up now while supply lines are functional and stores can replenish what you buy.

If the scare passes, you can just eat / use your supplies.

Also prudent: gather info and supplies for treating flu symptoms at home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on January 26, 2020, 11:05:37 AM
https://preparedneighbor.com/be-prepared-to-survive/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 26, 2020, 12:07:13 PM
Quote
A new coronavirus that has spread to almost 2,000 people is infectious in its incubation period - before symptoms show - making it harder to contain, Chinese officials say.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523

That's bad.

>prepper threads

I still have a solar oven up in my attic from the last one.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on January 26, 2020, 06:16:36 PM
Flew Hanoi to Singapore today, never seen so many masks and they are pretty popular normally.

Had to fill in a form on hotel check-in, countries visited, symptoms etc THEN they took our temperature!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 26, 2020, 07:34:22 PM
You wearing a mask Mark?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on January 26, 2020, 08:06:24 PM
I read about the masks. Their main success is you not touching your boat.

Rectal thermometer?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 27, 2020, 12:07:13 AM
Mask (the good ones) prices are way high on Amazon.

 3M 8511 Respirator, N95, Cool Flow Valve  $74 for 2 packs of 10.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on January 27, 2020, 09:55:08 AM
Clever people are already on it :-)

https://twitter.com/SteHughes90/status/1221478741441945601
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 27, 2020, 11:51:15 PM
Here's a couple of links from the CDC, older articles that apply well to current concerns:

Get your workplace ready for pandemic flu

https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/pdf/gr-pan-flu-work-set.pdf

Get your household ready for pandemic flu:

https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/pdf/gr-pan-flu-ind-house.pdf
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 28, 2020, 03:57:42 AM
Death toll jumps to 106, nearly 1,300 new cases as Chinese citizens urged to reconsider overseas travel

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/wuhan-virus-death-toll-jumps-to-106-nearly-1300-new-cases-says-chinese-government
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on January 28, 2020, 04:53:16 PM
You wearing a mask Mark?

No.

All sold out in Singapore btw.

>rectal

By request only so you would have been happy.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 28, 2020, 10:38:58 PM
confirmed: 4,690 5,578

May be good news: the graph appears to be flattening.

2 in VN
5 US
5 AU
0 UK

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 29, 2020, 10:31:40 PM
Might have a case here in my county.  Person who returned from China was feeling ill has been hospitalized due to an excess of caution.  Still unconfirmed if it really is Corona Virus.   

And here I was patting myself on the back for living in the sticks, where nobody ever wants to go.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 31, 2020, 12:04:04 AM
Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51318246)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 31, 2020, 02:43:02 AM
And now there's the Coronita Virus to contend with too
https://i.redd.it/9q6x2nf6yyd41.jpg
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on January 31, 2020, 10:37:33 AM
UK: 2 :(

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-cases-of-coronavirus-in-england
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 31, 2020, 10:52:44 AM
The common flu seems to be more deadly than the corona virus - if you get treatment in time.

I thought I saw that cases had been reported in India.  That might be hard to contain.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 31, 2020, 12:18:36 PM
>> The common flu seems to be more deadly than the corona virus - if you get treatment in time.

That depends on whose stats / speculations you read. It also depends on hospitals not being overwhelmed.

This thing spreads easily so there will be many cases in many places as the story unfolds. Even if the overall fatality percentages turned out to be no worse than flu (a big if), sheer numbers will make it deadly.

At this point there's no cure, only supportive treatment. If you catch this it will be your own immune system that gets you through.

So take care of yourself in every way you know how.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on January 31, 2020, 02:32:50 PM
smile
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 31, 2020, 03:49:18 PM
At this point there's no cure, only supportive treatment. If you catch this it will be your own immune system that gets you through.

Your whole note reads like a telegram from the future... sent 10 years ago. In other words, there was a spate of books about "the coming pandemic" around then. The big thing is if we saw a repeat of the 1918 event. The huge advantage we have is data. The huge disadvantage we have is air travel.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on January 31, 2020, 05:04:56 PM
>>I think that urban areas with diverse, transient international populations are the highest risk

So you are saying my trip to Vegas earlier this week could be problematic?

Definitely saw a lot more people than normal wearing masks there and in the airports.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 01, 2020, 03:03:01 AM
We tend to keep quite a full pantry as a normal matter, primarily with winter storms in mind. We've topped things up and filled some gaps so that if need be our household could go for several weeks without going out. It's all stuff we'd use eventually in any case, from canned goods and baking supplies to an extra canister for the SodaStream.

Having done that, I feel able to relax and go about life more or less normally ... albeit with an eye on the news.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 01, 2020, 03:33:43 AM
>saying my trip to Vegas earlier this week could be problematic?

"Health District said that the adult patient had spent time in the area of Wuhan before flying into McCarran International Airport on Jan. 14. "

UPDATE: Local patient possibly with coronavirus in isolation at home
https://www.ktnv.com/news/potential-case-of-coronavirus-in-las-vegas-valley
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 01, 2020, 12:46:48 PM
Modeling suggests up to 75,000 people in Wuhan may have contracted coronavirus per Lancet.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/01/31/More-than-75K-in-Wuhan-may-have-coronavirus-analysis-suggests/5261580483013/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 01, 2020, 03:58:04 PM
Coronavirus breakthrough built on monkey kidneys and old-school science
https://www.theage.com.au/national/monkey-kidneys-and-old-school-science-inside-melbourne-s-coronavirus-breakthrough-20200129-p53vuy.html


259/12,024

6 in VN
8 US
12 AU
2 UK
4 CA
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 01, 2020, 05:00:14 PM
We're all safe now!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fashion-magazines-influencers-weigh-coronavirus-outbreak-n1127236

https://www.tatler.com/article/how-to-style-an-epidemic

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 02, 2020, 05:54:16 PM
I'm seeing many pictures of people with masks but not gloves.

That's a big gap in their defences!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPskz-pUYAAgLQx.jpg)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on February 02, 2020, 06:44:29 PM
Flew from Hanoi yesterday, everyone and I mean everyone had a mask on. Even the whiteys.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 02, 2020, 08:07:56 PM
The VN number infected has held at 6.  Given the geo proximity, I'd say that's a decent firewall.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 02, 2020, 09:49:39 PM
Chart: 2019-CoV vs Sars

https://preview.redd.it/43ywwqgxlke41.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=0845c0035572aadb8dd12857c5526ce15b40e2fb
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 02, 2020, 10:06:34 PM
> I'd say that's a decent firewall

If the numbers are legitimate.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 02, 2020, 10:43:39 PM
> If the numbers are legitimate

Good point.  Governments lie.

Seems like VN and CN have some tensions over trade, military, and S. China Sea. Maybe that's helped by reducing mobility between them.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 02, 2020, 11:14:35 PM
lopinavir and ritonavir, in combination with flu drug oseltamivir 

Cocktail of flu, HIV drugs appears to help fight coronavirus: Thai doctors - Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-thailand/cocktail-of-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-to-help-fight-coronavirus-thai-doctors-idUSKBN1ZW0GQ
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 02, 2020, 11:41:37 PM
What a time to be 3m.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 03, 2020, 02:08:36 AM
Uh-oh.  This from a US-based manager of pharm shipments.

"The problem is a lot of the drugs come from China, and there are no flights out of China right now."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on February 03, 2020, 08:50:30 AM
>Seems like VN and CN have some tensions

More towards hate than tension.

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/05/01/402572349/ask-the-vietnamese-about-war-and-they-think-china-not-the-u-s?t=1580719683300

"On the morning of the attack, February 17th, we were sleeping when the Chinese artillery started, then we all ran to our posts," he says. "Some were dressed, others didn't even have time to put their pants on, they just ran to their posts to fight."

Never step to the Vietnamese.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 03, 2020, 07:50:03 PM
University of Hong Kong :

"the number of infections would likely double every six days, peaking in April and May for those places currently dealing with an outbreak, although effective public health measures could bring that rate down."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 03, 2020, 10:29:37 PM
American teacher documents life in Wuhan, center of coronavirus (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cLmOibP49o)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on February 04, 2020, 01:38:58 PM
Macau has ordered all casinos to close for the next two weeks as coronavirus confirmed cases and deaths increase in mainland China, according to Bloomberg.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2020, 12:45:20 AM
>doubles every six days

That's now appearing to be too conservative.

China says death toll hits 563 as confirmed cases top 28,000
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 06, 2020, 02:34:19 AM
No matter how this turns out, we'll need to eat.

I'm continuing to pick up extra groceries and other supplies. I'm going to need some new recipes, too!

I'm also working to get tasks done from my to-do list that would require going out. Get 'em done soon so I can stay in later if need be.

I think of it as practical paranoia.  8)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 06, 2020, 12:26:35 PM
>eat

I saw news photos of grocery stores in Wuhan with empty shelves.

I still have my winter cache of supplies.  I stock up every Fall with canned goods including SPAM.  Plus a freezer full of food.

It has to be rough on those cruise ships that are quarantined.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on February 06, 2020, 04:35:34 PM
"Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths"

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

"On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics."

Plausible IMO.

//Added

Coronavirus 'kills Chinese whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795

"Dr Li, 34, had noticed seven cases of a virus that he thought looked like Sars - the virus that led to a global epidemic in 2003.

On 30 December he sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them to wear protective clothing to avoid infection.

Four days later he was summoned to the Public Security Bureau where he was told to sign a letter. In the letter he was accused of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order".

He was one of eight people who police said were being investigated for "spreading rumours"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2020, 05:27:05 PM
>Plausible IMO.

Agreed.  If the Tencent figures are used, we're looking at a 16% kill rate.  Most pandemics have been in the 2-3% range.  MERS was the exception at around 35%.

<+>
SARS was around 10%
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 06, 2020, 07:03:07 PM
>kill rate

I think its going to be a while until we really know how fatal CV is.  Looks like the virus generally doesn't hit kids as hard (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/health/coronavirus-children.html).

I don't have much faith in the current leaderships of the world to handle the outbreak properly, so I'm betting it is going to spread through every country eventually.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 06, 2020, 09:39:37 PM
My big worry is if it hits the under developed world like Africa and elsewhere, that just does not have enough medical infrastructure and personnel to handle a pandemic.  It would be terrible for them. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2020, 11:24:36 PM
Confirmed Cases by Country/Region

28,094 Mainland China
45 Japan
28 Singapore
25 Thailand
24 Hong Kong
23 South Korea
16 Taiwan
14 Australia
12 Germany
12 US
12 Malaysia
10 Vietnam
10 Macau
6 France
5 Canada
5 United Arab Emirates
3 India
2 Italy
2 Russia
2 Philippines
2 UK
1 Nepal
1 Cambodia
1 Belgium
1 Spain
1 Finland
1 Sweden
1 Sri Lanka
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 06, 2020, 11:51:52 PM
U.K. is 3. The news did a 50% increase piece. I laughed
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2020, 11:57:04 PM
Yeah, and I think the US has an additional one.  The web page updates late, IIRC.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 07, 2020, 12:54:58 AM
Coronavirus China: Wuhan told to round up infected for quarantine camps  ...as death roll rises to 634

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/china-pays-tribute-to-exhausted-coronavirus-staff-as-hospitals-scramble-for-supplies/news-story/95bb3b067270228d1b34f7fb2754070f


Wuhan is ordering all 11 million residents to report their body temperature every day to combat the coronavirus

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-residents-reporting-body-temperature-daily-to-combat-coronavirus-2020-2
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 07, 2020, 03:11:08 AM
Another 41 catch coronavirus onboard cruise ship off Japan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51409800
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 07, 2020, 01:44:03 PM
Fashion weighs in ...

https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/professional/everything-fashion-brands-need-to-know-about-the-coronavirus-crisis-management-luxury

https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/market-pulse/luxury-feels-the-impact-of-coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 07, 2020, 02:31:12 PM
Boston:

'It's Completely Empty': Coronavirus Fears Take Toll On Chinatown Businesses
https://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2020/02/07/new-coronavirus-slows-chinatown-business
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 07, 2020, 02:44:39 PM
Is this a luxury product?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7963665/New-Zealand-sex-workers-say-discriminated-against-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 07, 2020, 02:59:00 PM
CDC begins shipping coronavirus tests to state and local health departments

TL;DR
"About 400 test kits will be distributed domestically and internationally. Each kit can test about 700-800 patient samples. More kits will be produced and shipped in the future, the CDC said."

"the test can provide results in four hours. "

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/481944-cdc-begins-shipping-coronavirus-tests-to-state-and-local-health-departments
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2020, 12:05:31 AM
Now officially bigger than SARS, which they say is a very similar virus (80%).    ...And the SARS vaccine never got out the gate anyway.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 09, 2020, 02:50:57 AM
Long life span.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 09, 2020, 03:00:13 AM
Huge potential BS on this but the thread has some interesting ideas.

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 09, 2020, 03:07:05 AM
Interesting article on surveillance

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-surveillance-idUSKBN2011HO
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2020, 03:17:59 AM
> surveillance

'In other places, drones are being used to patrol villages and urban roads to check for any behavior that might contribute to the spread of the virus, such as people not wearing masks in public.

"Grandma, do not go out without wearing a protective mask, and you better stay at home to be safe," an operator said via a drone flying over the head of an elderly woman in a village in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia'


Drones take to the air to combat virus - Chinadaily.com.cn
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/08/WS5e3df0b5a310128217275ee5.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 09, 2020, 04:04:22 AM
Of all the info I've seen in recent days, the image of the gas bloom over Wuhan is the first one to make me weep.

The pain it represents is beyond imagining.

God help the people of China. God help us all.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 09, 2020, 04:41:03 AM
>gas bloom over Wuhan

I didn't see that, do you have a link?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2020, 05:04:33 AM
>gas

Quote
Huge potential BS on this but the thread has some interesting ideas.

https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=21

SO2

<+>
Possibly adds some credibility of the Tencent data posted by Travoli
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2020, 05:35:02 AM
‘No Glitches’ in Early Effort for Coronavirus Vaccine, NIH Says. Moderna Stock Is Flying.

"Two weeks ago, on Jan. 21, Fauci said that it would take around three months for a Moderna vaccine for the virus to enter a first-in-human Phase 1 study. Now, the forecast remains the same."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/moderna-gilead-stock-coronavirus-vaccine-51581109485
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 09, 2020, 10:10:07 AM
The 2.1% reported almost every day is clearly bollocks.

It’s mad looking out there. Welding apartment doors shut etc.

https://twitter.com/ncovnews/status/1226370459341426688?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 10, 2020, 12:18:56 AM
SO2

China virus funeral order fuels upset as death toll rises | Al Jazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-virus-funeral-order-fuels-upset-death-toll-exceeds-sars-200209010139644.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 10, 2020, 02:22:31 AM
Food for thought ... someone on Peak Prosperity posted this list of supplies:

Quote

whatever you normally buy when you are sick, but consider you may be sick for  3- 4 weeks…  Big bottles of Advil, lozenges, elderberry syrup, Vitamin C and D, masks, disposable gloves, Robitussin flu/cough, Vick’s vapor cream, bleach, Lysol wipes and sprays, hand soap and sanitizer, laundry detergent and sanitizing bleach, toilet paper, canned soups, peanut butter, coffee, honey, pet food, tissues, toilet paper. Whatever else you do not want to be out of if you can’t shop or shelves are bare.  A good thermometer and oximeter. Prescriptions.  If you have a health savings account, check out the HSA store.  Some things can even be purchased with your HSA account.  Plastic sheeting or plastic party tablecloths for covering things. Hope this helps.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 10, 2020, 11:12:21 AM
Coronavirus Lurking in Feces May Reveal Hidden Risk of Spread

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/coronavirus-lurking-in-feces-may-reveal-hidden-risk-of-spread
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 10, 2020, 04:10:49 PM
It’s mad looking out there. Welding apartment doors shut etc.

Is this verified? Anyone can take a video of some folks standing around with welders.

And the comments on that are absurd: "the Chinese Holocaust."

The closest thing to a Chinese Holocaust would be Great Chinese Famine - roughly 20 to 40 million deaths in a population less than half of today's. That's about the same number of deaths as from the flu pandemic if 1918 (20-40 million) and all in one country, though the numbers are disputed with official government estimates being lower and some scholars putting the numbers higher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine#Extent

When we had hantavirus "plague" of 2012 in Yosemite, there were three deaths and nine confirmed cases out of 4,000,000 visitors. It was absolute panic and pandemonium. Park visitation plummeted. People from AZ and NM were cancelling their trips, even though HV is endemic in those states.

At one point, someone from the CDC said 10,000 people had been exposed. Other reporting said the death rate was 30%. It was getting reported in the UK that 3,000 people might die. One of our UK guests said he almost cancelled his trip, but then did a little digging and realized that 30% the death rate is among those hospitalized with HV. It is thought that most people just think they have the flu and gut it out. Meanwhile, the count of "exposed" meant that 10,000 people had been in or near the buildings that were linked to the cases.

Anyway, I realize that Corona virus is serious and that public health officials need to be sure it doesn't become a pandemic. But it drives me crazy how easily scared we are and how people let the need of cable news to keep a story alive pump up their fears.

When this is all said and done, more Americans will die in car accidents this winter than from CV. Maybe more will die from the regular flu.

Again, I applaud the intelligent, prudent and reasonable efforts by public health officials to contain the outbreak. Without those efforts, it could indeed be terrible. But the hysteria is just ridiculous. The only thing that is worse is reporting on plane crashes. Those should not be reported at all, generally speaking.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 10, 2020, 04:39:39 PM
>Is this verified

NPR was interviewing a man who reported that if six people are sick in an apartment they will not let anyone leave it.  He said that they are not being given any food.

Could you imagine the lawlessness as the virus spreads in those buildings and food runs out?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 10, 2020, 05:34:24 PM
It’s all a bit crazy.

Emergency UK law activated today to be able to force 14 day quarantine after one of the People tried to leave.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 10, 2020, 06:03:40 PM
Yeah, but I don't see the UK going full on Lord of the Flies without providing provisions the way they are in Wuhan.  Latest data I've read it looks like 2-3% fatality rates but its 4.9% in Wuhan.


Quote
Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 10, 2020, 06:14:25 PM
>> hysteria is just ridiculous

I consider it hysteria when people speculate that this thing is a bioweapon escaped from the lab or some such.

I don't consider it hysteria when people have sober, practical discussions about ways to prepare our households for uncertain developments.

At this point, both the complication rate and the kill rate look to be worse than the flu. I don't trust the official numbers coming out of China very much, and I suspect that the story they tell is more likely to be sugarcoated than exaggerated.

My own response, as I've mentioned, is to stock up on groceries etc. so we could stay in for an extended period if that seemed wise. I figure it's important to take such action early so that stores can restock the things I buy.

If no trouble comes our way we can just eat our supplies.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 10, 2020, 06:17:16 PM
>Is this verified?

There are several videos floating around that are purported to be authentic, as-it-happened apartment lockdowns.  I suspect they are fabricated as it seems very 'liberal' and out of character for the CN gov to allow recording and distribution.  Reddit says some are coming out of HK and may be part of the on-going protests.  Debbie says /r is probably correct.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 10, 2020, 06:29:48 PM
NPR was interviewing a man who reported that if six people are sick in an apartment they will not let anyone leave it.  He said that they are not being given any food.

Wow! I can imagine in the US or Europe not letting people leave, but I can't imagine it happening without a small army of people in hazmat suits delivering supplies. There is still an aspect of collectivism to China that is just so strange to me.

Quote
I don't consider it hysteria when people have sober, practical discussions about ways to prepare our households for uncertain developments.

Totally agree. As I said, I think that is prudent and responsible and I am very grateful that public health officials are acting decisively and working to stop this. Failure there *could* lead to a devastating pandemic.

I was not labeling that as hysteria, but rather the Twitter comments... which upon reflection are probably trolls.

Quote
stock up on groceries

The roads around here have been closed since yesterday morning because high winds knocked down so many trees. Just reopened. So much stuff happens around here, we feel nervous if we have anything less than 10 days of food on hand and some basic first aid stuff (in the very best of times, it's a one-hour response time).

So I think that's just good advice, Corona virus or not.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 10, 2020, 06:52:04 PM
My own response, as I've mentioned, is to stock up on groceries etc. so we could stay in for an extended period if that seemed wise. I figure it's important to take such action early so that stores can restock the things I buy.

If no trouble comes our way we can just eat our supplies.

Absolutely rational and prudent. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 10, 2020, 09:24:17 PM
"Prepping is not about fear and panic -  it is the opposite of that. It is about being calm and ready." -- Selco Begovic
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 11, 2020, 01:59:14 AM
*IF* we can believe that the CN numbers are right, the new cases curve has flattened a bit for the last 3 days running.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 11, 2020, 03:51:47 AM
>> *IF* we can believe

China changes counting scheme to lower Wuhan virus numbers

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The daily reports of Wuhan virus infections in Communist China will likely begin to drop as the government has decided to stop counting patients who test positive for the disease but do not exhibit symptoms as “confirmed cases.”

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on February 11, 2020, 04:03:37 PM
My daughter (UK) is under house quarantine. Got back from japan 27th, got a bit of a cold, she dialled 111 (UK helpline) and they told her not to leave the house until they say so.

99.99999999999% its just a cold. Reassuring to see that they on it though.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 11, 2020, 06:07:45 PM
Press release from Visit California (for whom the Asian market in general is big, though less so PRC).

Quote
Dear Industry Colleague,
 
Visit California continues to closely monitor the coronavirus outbreak. Our offices throughout China and across Asia, as well as our Sacramento team, are working closely with industry partners and Gov. Newsom’s senior administration officials to ensure we have the most accurate and timely information. Visit California is encouraging a measured response as the outbreak develops and information continues to emerge.
 
Travel Impacts
•   The U.S. government has temporarily banned entry of foreign nationals who have traveled to China within the last 14 days.
•   Air service to and from China has been suspended by all U.S. and most Chinese carriers, with the exception of a few flights per week. These cancelations account for 87% of total seats. Most suspensions will run through March.
 
Visit California’s Response
•   All China programs, including travel trade, public relations and consumer advertising, are paused.
•   Visit California’s April 6-10 China Sales and Media Mission is postponed, as are all FAMs involving travel from China.
•   Visit California is keeping followers updated on Chinese social media, including Weibo and WeChat.
•   Visit California has delayed its spring consumer campaign for approximately two weeks. It is now scheduled to roll out on April 6.

Industry Implications
•   Tourism Economics is now projecting a 27% decline in visits and spend to California from China in 2020. Even with this downgrade, overall visitor spending — from U.S. and international markets combined — is still projected to increase 2.9% in California this year.
•   Industry experts expect a rebound in Chinese tourism to begin in April and rise throughout 2020.
 
Visit California’s efforts over the past decade have given California a dominant share of the Chinese travel market. We are confident that Chinese travel to California will rebound once the outbreak is contained, and California’s high brand awareness positions the state to recover more quickly than our competitors. Although it is too early to predict specifics, China will remain California’s top overseas visitor market and a priority for Visit California’s marketing efforts.
 
For additional resources, please reference this comprehensive brief. The U.S. Travel Association has also provided a helpful toolkit. It includes a guide to communicating healthy travel practices and media talking points.

I look forward to seeing you next week at Visit California’s 2020 Outlook Forum and the Winter Board Meeting, where the outbreak and plans for the Chinese market will be discussed in greater detail.

Sincerely,
Caroline Beteta
President & CEO

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 14, 2020, 01:57:20 AM
My daughter (UK) is under house quarantine. Got back from japan 27th, got a bit of a cold, she dialled 111 (UK helpline) and they told her not to leave the house until they say so.

99.99999999999% its just a cold. Reassuring to see that they on it though.

She doing alright Mark?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on February 14, 2020, 10:08:26 AM
Quote
My daughter (UK) is under house quarantine. Got back from japan 27th, got a bit of a cold,

Concerned myself about her. She should know by now?  Has she been tested?

We are a bit concerned as Lucy is in Brighton Uni, People with Hazmat outfits have been there, the GP surgery is closed for a deep clean, and she says only half the students are in for lectures... but so far it seems to have settled down
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 14, 2020, 12:35:32 PM
CDC: Coronavirus expected to make a foothold in US or other countries

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/cdc-prepares-for-coronavirus-to-take-a-foothold-in-the-us.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 15, 2020, 02:13:02 AM
How COVID-19 Kills: The New Coronavirus Disease Can Take A Deadly Turn
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/14/805289669/how-covid-19-kills-the-new-coronavirus-disease-can-take-a-deadly-turn?utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=nprnews
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on February 15, 2020, 08:30:18 AM
>She doing alright Mark?

Yes, out of "quarantine" on Thursday. No tests which I can understand.

>Lucy is in Brighton Uni

Ouch, that made me feel old!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 15, 2020, 08:29:41 PM
>Yes, out of "quarantine" on Thursday

That's great news. 

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 15, 2020, 09:26:34 PM
Yes, out of "quarantine" on Thursday.

Glad to hear it! Even though you reckoned it at 0.00000000001%, I'm sure it's a relief nevertheless.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 17, 2020, 10:11:46 AM
I said prepping included toilet roll to someone :-)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51527043
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 17, 2020, 12:25:07 PM
I said prepping included toilet roll to someone :-)



Me too.  :-)

A friend said she was stockpiling food in case she and he husband had to self isolate themselves for 14 days and I mentioned toilet rolls.  Also, kitty litter, pet food and baby diapers if appropriate.  All of our Core prepper threads are paying off!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 17, 2020, 01:09:19 PM
Just got some decent LED lamps.

I'm not fearing we will be dead from CV, but I am doing some of the things I should have in place.

Then as you say, if 14 days self isolation, I don't need to go out.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 17, 2020, 02:39:15 PM
>LED lamps

+1

Those little things are great.  I really should get an extra one.

I like buckworks suggestion of new board games, especially if you have kids.  I'd add to that a couple of new pen and paper RPG games.  I mean there is nothing like killing off your spouse's player character when you have to be locked up with them for two or three weeks.   :o
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 20, 2020, 01:48:41 AM
I just read this book: "The Wuhan Coronavirus Survival Manual: How to Prepare for Pandemics and Quarantines" by Cat Ellis, February 2020.  117 pages.  I found it at Amazon.

Book has 3 major sections: 1. What is known about the Coronavirus so far. 2. Pandemic/Coronavirus Preparedness  3. Knowing when to go into lockdown, self isolation, self quarantine - whatever you want to call it.

The book was just good advise. Not overly paranoid.  There are some good medical and anti contamination tips that we have not discussed here at Th3 Core but preppers here, could get by without reading it.  However, if you've never given it much thought before this book would be worth getting.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on February 20, 2020, 06:51:21 AM
A new pack of cards....  Even Canasta.... ;)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 20, 2020, 08:37:33 PM
Interesting list / article

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/emergency_preparedness/planning/Pages/emergency-pantry-list.aspx
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 20, 2020, 09:27:43 PM
ukgimp, that's a good list.

After reading that book (above) is I would plan to extend the time period of self isolation in a pandemic to 21 to 29 days.  If the pandemic is bad enough that you have lost power for a long time during your initial 14 days, it's going to take some more days to restore essential services and reopen and restock grocery stores etc.

So if I were preparing now, I'd stock up for 14 days first.  Once that is done I'd lay in enough supplies for another week.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 20, 2020, 10:56:52 PM
Good news: 
I have a daughter who is admin at a 100-patient nursing home. She has also been selected to be on the state's emergency preparedness board (after shepherding her patients & staff through the eye of the last hurricane).  Anyway, based on this thread, I tipped her to stock up on masks & toilet paper.  She received one extra shipment of masks before the vendors started back-ordering and future shipments will be subject to rationing.  Staff will be ordering extra toilet paper today.

The bad news is that the CDC told nursing home admins to move to "pandemic preparedness" mode.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 20, 2020, 11:24:17 PM
SKorea city locks down after coronavirus spread
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-idUSKBN20E0AM



>CDC

That does not sound good.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2020, 02:39:04 AM
You heard it here first.

US hospitals brace for coronavirus outbreak to become global pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/hospitals-across-the-us-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-global-pandemic.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on February 21, 2020, 10:09:20 AM
WE do not have it YET
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 21, 2020, 11:03:37 AM
Reports of banks struggling

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/1230776826726879232?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2020, 01:55:20 PM
DrCool, you have cv-19 patients arriving in Spokane.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on February 21, 2020, 04:33:44 PM
>>you have cv-19 patients arriving in Spokane

Yep, at the big hospital here. I have a lot of friends who are doctors and nurses at that hospital. They have a pretty cool airborne diseases ward in the hospital there and is one of only 10 in the country with that sort of ward.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2020, 04:48:52 PM
The other treatment centers are located in
Boston
New York City
Baltimore
Atlanta
Minneapolis
Galveston
Omaha
Denver
Los Angeles.

<+>
Wuhan to build 19 more makeshift hospitals as China struggles to contain epidemic

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-wuhan-to-activate-one-more-temporary-hospital-with-3690-beds
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 21, 2020, 07:07:04 PM
The data looking  like children don't get hit very hard by the virus, maybe up to 80% show little or no symptoms.

https://www.livescience.com/why-kids-missing-coronavirus-cases.html

Quote
Youth can certainly contract the virus. Among the infected are at least two newborns, according to Chinese health officials. But few children are among those sick enough to be diagnosed with the coronavirus, according to an article published Feb. 5 in the Journal of the American Medical Association. According to the data analyzed in that article — and numbers are changing quickly as the outbreak evolves — the median age of patients skews older, between 49 and 56 years old.

So, this is good and bad, that means that kids could be passing it among each other and then bring it home without showing symptoms. In North America (and probably the UK & EU to) schools spread communicable diseases like the flu and common colds.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
AGEDEATH RATE
80+ years old  14.8%
70-79 years old  8.0%
60-69 years old   3.6%
50-59 years old   1.3%
40-49 years old   0.4%
30-39 years old   0.2%
20-29 years old   0.2%
10-19 years old   0.2%
0-9 years old      no fatalities


Also, having a pre-existing condition increases the fatality rate.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease  10.5%
Diabetes  7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease  6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions 0.9%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Families with seniors and people with compromised health need to be particularly careful.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2020, 08:10:21 PM
They're still scrambling to figure out transmission paths.

"Two of those passengers without symptoms tested positive, and were transferred to the hospital for further evaluation and monitoring. Although one developed a faint rash and a mild sore throat, both remained well and fever-free seven days after hospital admission"

Coronavirus infection may be spread by people without symptoms, mounting evidence suggests
https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus-transmission-asymptommatic-nejm-german-report-20200218.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 21, 2020, 10:44:33 PM
>without symptoms

This makes it hard to contain the spread and explains why governments are quietly raising their alert status.

I read somewhere that the US has significantly fewer hospital beds than we did in the 1970's. And it doesn't help that many hospitals are chronically understaffed.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 21, 2020, 11:09:59 PM
BBC roundup re Iran etc and it’s unusual transmission.

https://apple.news/A5a-y4ZtDTGaeJXokUErHbg
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 21, 2020, 11:14:13 PM
Yep. Just like the Flu. We build hospitals like this every year.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180377.shtml
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2020, 11:29:14 PM
>US has significantly fewer hospital beds than we did in the 1970

Rural/suburban hospitals have been closing at a pretty good pace.  Others that remain have been bought out by chains and down-sized to be 'gateway' or feeder hospitals for the primary --hub & spokes style.

Medicare is slated to further gut rural hospital funding soon, and many administrators say they will be forced to close.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 22, 2020, 01:15:50 AM
10 Italian towns in lockdown.
https://news.yahoo.com/10-italian-towns-lockdown-over-coronavirus-fears-220635548.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on February 23, 2020, 02:24:55 PM

iMask? Companies Race To Build Next-Gen Facewear To Block Germs


https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/no-silly-not-imask-companies-race-build-next-generation-facewear-block-germs

Some costing $400+
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 23, 2020, 02:37:03 PM
Concern over coronavirus spread grows with cases jumping in South Korea, Italy and Iran - Reuters


South Korea: 600+
Italy: 132
Iran:43


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/concern-over-coronavirus-spread-grows-with-cases-jumping-in-south-korea-italy-and-iran-idUSKCN20H03U
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 23, 2020, 03:32:58 PM
From my reading, transmission paths and times are still not adding up.  I'm seeing some reports saying that it now appears that the incubation/asymptomatic transmission period is 24 days.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 23, 2020, 04:16:12 PM
The other thing is how long the virus can live outside the human body.  I'm seeing reports that it can live up to 5 days, with one report of 9 days.  The problem is the data set is so small right now, nobody really knows.  But I did see news reports that China is sanitizing some currency notes and burning those that are heavily infected.

Other variables: how long the virus can live on what type of surfaces, effects of direct sunlight on it and airborne vectors.

I'm following this blog from one of the infected cities in China:

Quote
Been a tough weekend.

Now into our 5th week of self-isolation.

It’s normal now, not going out but L and I are finding it difficult having no time to ourselves now that our eldest refuses to sleep.

Source:  http://chotoye.com/blog/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 23, 2020, 04:48:20 PM
I've read 9 days several times now --no telling if they're emanating from a single or multiple reports.  Debbie says the transmission within the cruise ship feels like it survives on surfaces for prolonged periods.  ...Though cruise ships are almost perfect petri dishes.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 23, 2020, 05:13:12 PM
>surfaces

Star san is a no rinse sanitizer I use for home brewing beer.  This is the greatest stuff.  When I'm brewing I mix up a big bucket of this stuff and sanitize all my equipment.  I also fill a spray bottle and spray down all my counters.  I can plunge my hands in it to dig stuff out of the bucket. 

I also use it at bottling and kegging time to Sanitize the bottles and kegs.  The Star san foam residue just breaks down to water and oxygen.  Safer for surfaces than bleach.  Just follow the directions. 

https://www.amazon.com/Star-San-4C-YKNL-FWNT-San-16oz/dp/B0064O7Y64/

Best stuff ever.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 24, 2020, 02:01:10 AM
BTW:

China state newspaper says coronavirus originated outside wildlife market

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1180429.shtml

A) Wuhan is home to China's most advanced virus research laboratory, the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

B) CV-19 is a coronavirus that’s escaping zoological classification and whose novel spike-protein region shares more in common with a commercial genetic vector than any of its wild relatives, and has other unnatural characteristics

Pretty Good Conspiracy Theory:

Report: Chinese Scientists Find "Killer Coronavirus Probably Originated From A Laboratory In Wuhan" (UNC Researchers Possibly Involved)
https://creativedestructionmedia.com/news/asia/2020/02/16/report-chinese-scientist-who-worked-at-unc-finds-killer-coronavirus-probably-originated-from-a-laboratory-in-wuhan/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 24, 2020, 06:23:20 AM
If it is a runaway lab created virus we're all lucky it isn't more deadly.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on February 24, 2020, 02:27:53 PM
February 17 2019 04:34 PM EST weather.com

Flu Season: Up to 19,000 People Have Died; Vaccine Protecting About Half Who Get It

https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2019-02-15-flu-season-vaccine-illnesses-deaths
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 24, 2020, 02:42:10 PM
833 South Korea
230 Italy
159 Japan
89 Singapore
79 Hong Kong
61 Iran
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 24, 2020, 03:37:47 PM
Too late for containment probably.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 24, 2020, 03:46:28 PM
>> Too late for containment probably.

I'm afraid you're right.

My mindset is shifting from being ready "if" this comes to my neighbourhood to "when".
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on February 24, 2020, 04:03:19 PM
>833 South Korea

Huge deal for Koreans living/working in Asia, all flights suspended from my end.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 24, 2020, 04:45:22 PM
I heard that Vietnam is switching a factory from making garments to making face masks.  That seems wise.  Do we still have garment factories in the US?

Radio this morning said Afghanistan has reported their first case.  Somebody returning from Iran.  Afghans have closed their border with Iran.  Same with Turkey.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 24, 2020, 06:27:16 PM
The figures are not stacking up in incubation period. Maybe more like 28 days.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 24, 2020, 06:39:41 PM
> more like 28 days.

Yeah, I agree.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 24, 2020, 06:53:27 PM
'On Monday Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain reported their first cases, all involving people who had come from Iran. Officials in Bahrain said the patient infected there was a school bus driver'

Coronavirus: World should prepare for pandemic, says WHO - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 24, 2020, 11:23:49 PM
How Britain became a nation of stockpilers: 'It just feels like something is going to give'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/24/zombie-apocalypse-coronavirus-stockpilers-emergency-food?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 24, 2020, 11:41:03 PM
>> stockpilers

I've been stocking up but I'm not sure I agree with buying high-priced "emergency" foods.

Many ordinary groceries have a shelf life of months to years so I'll settle for normal stuff.

Just more of it and better organized than usual!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 25, 2020, 01:04:10 AM
Vaccine
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-human-clinical-trial-ff89108d-87b0-4948-a299-59ee3369eb83.html

It will be at least a year, if it works.

The problem is this is an RNA virus and RNA viruses mutate rather quickly.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 25, 2020, 01:05:35 AM
>high-priced "emergency" foods.

Yeah, no need, beans/rice/oatmeal and canned foods have are dirt cheap and last for a very long time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 25, 2020, 01:10:40 AM
There is one freeze dried bulk canned food I would consider: a big 3 lbs. can of powdered eggs.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 25, 2020, 08:52:55 AM
The full video with swine flu added

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on February 25, 2020, 10:29:39 AM
VERY GOOD READ

https://gulfnews.com/world/spanish-flu-1918-vs-covid-19-1.1582445160581?slide=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 25, 2020, 01:55:15 PM
Moderna Surges After Shipping Coronavirus Vaccine For Study - TheStreet
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/moderna-surges-after-shipping-coronavirus-vaccine-for-study
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 25, 2020, 07:44:58 PM
How the Coronavirus Revealed Authoritarianism’s Fatal Flaw
China’s use of surveillance and censorship makes it harder for Xi Jinping to know what’s going on in his own country.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-and-blindness-authoritarianism/606922

An interesting read. It reminds me of how the East Germans collected minutiae on citizen and failed to see that the Soviet Union was collapsing.

To a lesser but more pertinent extent, it reminds me of a president who hollows out his cabinet to get rid of any and all dissenting voices, and the problems that arise from that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 25, 2020, 08:25:29 PM
The CDC is changing the narrative from "if" to "when":
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-usa-pompeo-idUSKBN20J1Y4
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 25, 2020, 08:44:13 PM
>To a lesser but more pertinent extent, it reminds me of a president who hollows out his cabinet to get rid of any and all dissenting voices, and the problems that arise from that.

Let's not beat around the bush.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/29/20936921/usaid-predict-pandemic-preparedness
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 26, 2020, 05:24:47 AM
Written by an MD

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 26, 2020, 04:21:16 PM
Linked to Italy

Coronavirus reaches South America as Brazil confirms first case - The National
https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/coronavirus-reaches-south-america-as-brazil-confirms-first-case-1.985033
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 26, 2020, 05:21:25 PM
Quote
Last week he said that the process of vaccine development was proving “very difficult and very frustrating.”

I have friends who work in vaccine development. Basically, if you want to find one of the most frustrating jobs in the world, choose vaccine dev or nuclear fusion.


CDC: Not "If" but "When"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us-american-cases/index.html

Just heard an interview with a WHO person from Geneva who says the world has to be ready. She underscored that countries with strong public health systems have generally been able to contain the virus. It remains to be seen whether the US is one of those countries. More troubling, it has hit Africa and throughout Africa there was only one test center, but they are ramping up there.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 26, 2020, 07:20:45 PM
I cannot find the article, but I recently read that only two self-isolated communities in the US escaped the Spanish Flu.  One was a military base ordered to go into 100% lockdown and the other was a rancher community.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 26, 2020, 07:30:04 PM
<+>
European countries, including Greece, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia, and mainland Spain, have reported their first confirmed cases of the virus, all of which have been traced back to travelers from Italy.

US isn't 'remotely prepared' to test for coronavirus, experts say | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-coronovirus-test.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on February 26, 2020, 08:13:39 PM
Just as an over view am I right in saying this is really a flu, but with a roughly x2 to x4 higher death rate per infection.  well I dont know anyone who died of flu. 

So as Mark says, why is it such a big deal?  (except it is new).

And the fact that only 1 in 7 get infected with flu, (1 billion each year)  and they seem to be saying it will be 3 in 5 (60%) (So 4 billion people ish..)

So I guess at worst it could kill 16 times more people than flu...  but I am not sure that's something to really worry about.

I know its not good, but....

Is my maths about there?  Not seen anyone put it like that, but its how I am reading it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 26, 2020, 08:43:18 PM
Though I've already changed some travel plans, I'm not wildly concerned/paranoid ...BUT that's because of where I live.  If I, say, commuted to work on the Tube daily then I'd be a lot more worried.

Your math looks as good as any, as it's still really a crapshoot --and will be until it's over and we assess the toll.  I do, however, think that the numbers given out by CN are likely to be off by a factor of 10.

IMO, CV-19 differs from the flu in the length of transmission times.  If it does turn out to be 24+ days and can be carried by asymptomatic hosts, then....
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 26, 2020, 09:05:03 PM
>why is it such a big deal?

Five things:
no vaccine yet
long incubation period
people are contagious before symptoms
looks like it is airborne transmissible (maybe)
death rate of 10-14% for the sick and elderly

The flu is deadly.  Not too long ago it killed 56,000 people the US alone during 2012-2013 season, but the flu is typically only contagious for up to a week before symptoms and we have an active vaccine program.

If you add that all up the globe is going to have a lot of dead grandparents, potentially tens of millions world wide. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 26, 2020, 09:16:21 PM
The person from the WHO said 10% to 20% are severe and need medical care. That's much higher than the flu.

>>death rate of 10-14% for the sick and elderly

And this is one difference compared to the 1918 flu - that particularly hit younger people of child-bearing age, so it had huge demographic ripples.

>>because of where I live

That's the one that worries me - small, rural community, with 4,000,000 visitors a year from all over the globe. I kind of wish I was still a 100% remote-working scholar with no contact with the outside world except when my wife returned home from the lab.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 26, 2020, 09:24:37 PM
>4,000,000

Yep, tourism is going to be a big conduit, I'm afraid.  Look at the quick jumps once it hit N. Italy, for example.  Spain's island resorts too a hit before the mainland.

At Spanish Hotel Under Coronavirus Lockdown, Meals With Masks - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/world/europe/spain-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 27, 2020, 01:37:38 AM
Its here.

Quote
A new case of novel coronavirus has been confirmed in Northern California, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, adding the case is not tied to the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/new-case-of-novel-coronavirus-in-northern-california-cdc/2242792/

Edit:
Just to be clear, this person (now known to be in the Bay Area) has no known path to infection.  So, its out and about here somewhere.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 27, 2020, 09:20:12 PM
Vice President Mike Pence will be put in charge of the U.S. response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak, President Donald Trump announced Wednesday in an address from the White House. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/trump-says-coronavirus-risk-to-the-american-people-remains-very-low.html)

Apparently all CDC news has to be prescreened by Pence before it goes public.  (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/484989-pence-office-to-handle-media-on-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 27, 2020, 09:49:10 PM
Trump is setting up Pence as the fall guy.  Trump seems more worried about the business fallout than he is about public health. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on February 27, 2020, 09:52:42 PM
Just flew in to New York. You ain't ready for this, trust me.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 27, 2020, 10:26:33 PM
>Trump is setting up Pence as the fall guy.

Was thinking the same thing.

>You ain't ready for this

Yeah, that's pretty clear from the press conference yesterday.


California monitoring 8,400 people for coronavirus (https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/485000-california-monitoring-8400-people-for-coronavirus-as-33-test-positive)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 27, 2020, 10:40:23 PM
>ain't ready

I'm just going to go to McD's drive-through. WCGW?

States ask people potentially exposed to COVID-19 to self-quarantine - UPI.com
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/02/27/States-ask-people-potentially-exposed-to-COVID-19-to-self-quarantine/6101582835877/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on February 28, 2020, 01:01:38 AM
>Just to be clear, this person (now known to be in the Bay Area) has no known path to infection.

Some of the repatriated cruise ship patients landed at Travis AFB. First Caronavirus case is in Solano, adjacent to Travis AFB.

Also, a whistleblower is now seeking federal protection after complaining that more than a dozen workers who received the first Americans lacked proper training or protective gear for coronavirus infection control.

SHRUG
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on February 28, 2020, 01:40:28 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8052775/White-House-GAGS-government-health-experts-speaking-coronavirus.html

"White House GAGS government health experts from speaking about coronavirus saying they must have Mike Pence's approval for EVERYTHING they say about mounting crisis - despite VP having zero medical qualifications"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 28, 2020, 02:16:02 AM
We bought a bunch of butter, potatoes, squash and unions today.  If supplies run out we're not stuck eating beans and rice for a month.

Re Pence:  Its about the spin, not about keeping people safe.  Trump is seeing the stock market crash and is worried about his chances in the election.  I just hope the state/local level governments will be able to compensate for the lack of leadership on top.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on February 28, 2020, 02:41:20 AM
>beans and rice

Delicious with both:
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 28, 2020, 02:59:02 AM
Jen is actually a pretty great cook, but there are times when I cook for myself and I'm to lazy to do all the chopping.  I'll give those guys a try.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 28, 2020, 03:58:22 AM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8052775/White-House-GAGS-government-health-experts-speaking-coronavirus.html

"White House GAGS government health experts from speaking about coronavirus saying they must have Mike Pence's approval for EVERYTHING they say about mounting crisis - despite VP having zero medical qualifications"

Well, as you know, I am not a fan of Trump and the way his administration falsifies and buries information, but I'm sympathetic here. When we had a hantavirus outbreak, the idiot from the CDC made completely ill-advised and misleading comments that panicked people and led to a lot of misinformation. Letting the medical people speak directly without vetting their comments is like letting the engineers speak directly when there's a software problem.

In my experience, people who do not have media training tend to speculate a lot. They also get their egos stroked by the attention and want to please the media by giving out information and that pushes them to speculate even further which feeds their sense of self-importance.

During the hantavirus thing, I sat at a phone bank fielding calls and some of the sh## I heard people say even though we had clear and detailed sheets of what we knew and even a list of things we did not, at the time, know and therefore should not speculate about. I heard people speculate on those things all day long.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 28, 2020, 11:32:04 AM
Exclusive: U.S. mulls using sweeping powers to ramp up production of coronavirus protective gear

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-usa-production-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-mulls-using-sweeping-powers-to-ramp-up-production-of-coronavirus-protective-gear-idUSKCN20L2S0

> state and local

Maybe in the states that have major ports of entry they are better equipped.  But the fly-over states are just not used to dealing with with this kind of stuff.  And frankly, most of the states have become complacent over the decades and have abdicated their role to the CDC and the feds.   We used to have local active Civil Defense units which would give boots on the ground assistance.  Those have been replaced with State "Departments of 'Hopeless' Security" which are generally centralized paper pushers in the State's capitals.  County health departments, chronically underfunded, are more about testing well water and tracing outbreaks of the clap not highly contagious pandemics.  I mean, only seven cities in the US even have test kits for coronavirus right now.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on February 28, 2020, 07:46:36 PM
Explainer: Coronavirus reappears in discharged patients, raising questions in containment fight

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 28, 2020, 11:40:56 PM
A second case of coronavirus found through spread in California - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coronavirus-found-through-spread-in-california/2020/02/28/ae53c93a-5a77-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 29, 2020, 01:10:56 AM
Looks like I'm in Ground Zero USA.  I've been urging my older relatives to take it seriously.  My stepmom said "I'm 80 years old.  If I die, I die".  She has this routine where she likes to take daily walks to the store and buy a couple of items and she's not planning on stopping.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 29, 2020, 02:23:07 AM
My wife went to grocery stores today.  At Trader Joe's it was business as usual, but at 99 Ranch (an Asian grocery chain) customers were noticably stocking up dry goods.   I suspect most Americans without ties to Asia are going to get caught unprepared. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 29, 2020, 03:36:20 AM
Coronavirus passed on in UK for first time as new case in Surrey takes total to 20 | London Evening Standard
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-passed-on-in-uk-for-first-time-as-cases-reach-20-a4374706.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 29, 2020, 04:04:19 AM

https://patch.com/oregon/portland/coronavirus-oregon-officials-announce-first-presumptive-case

Quote
PORTLAND, OR — Oregon health officials have determined what they say is the "first presumptive case" of the new coronavirus in the state, and the Lake Oswego School District, where the person works, said Friday students and staff may have been infected
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 29, 2020, 07:00:31 AM
2 New Coronavirus Cases Confirmed In Washington (https://patch.com/washington/seattle/2-new-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-washington)

Quote
At Friday's media briefing, health officials said a Snohomish County high school student tested positive for the virus but had no recent travels, nor an immediately apparent source for his illness. According to the state Department of Health, the teen visited the Seattle Children's North Clinic on Monday and is currently in home isolation.

...

In King County, public health officials said a woman in her 50s tested positive after returning from travel in Daegu, South Korea. She went to work in Seattle on Tuesday and began to notice symptoms by the end of the workday. King County Public Health said the woman had a "mild illness" and was being monitored in isolation at home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on February 29, 2020, 12:51:40 PM
Our daughter went to school in the Lake Oswego School District one year.

Great area, at the time.

ADDED: Our granddaughter returned from Bangkok via LAX last night.

the likely end-point of this outbreak will see it settle down as an endemic disease — one of the suite of respiratory viruses like influenza and the common cold that travel around the world year after year, with most of us regarding them as little more than a nuisance.
David Fickling
Bloomberg
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 29, 2020, 04:32:47 PM
WHO confirms that a dog in HK has cv19.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 29, 2020, 05:06:13 PM
>not ready

WHO raises global coronavirus alert as US faceplants | Ars Technica
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/who-data-shows-coronavirus-is-containable-us-fails-to-contain/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 29, 2020, 07:37:03 PM
Washington state confirms first US death from coronavirus (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/washington-state-confirms-first-us-death-from-coronavirus.html)

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 29, 2020, 07:47:07 PM
>granddaughter

She's lovely and I see you are taking precautions.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 01, 2020, 10:10:46 AM
>>taking precautions.

That is my son and the mask was meant as a JOKE
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2020, 04:24:58 PM
Is Britain prepared for a possible pandemic? The signs aren’t all that good…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/01/is-britain-prepared-for-a-possible-coronavirus-pandemic-the-signs-are-not-good

----------

Gunnison, Colorado: the town that dodged the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/gunnison-colorado-the-town-that-dodged-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2020, 05:00:19 PM
Someone outside th3core wanted to know what Debbie thinks.  FWIW:

>>COVID-19 -  50,000 in the US? It will just be the new normal until we get
> a vaccine?
>
Yeah, new normal in the US.  50k might be low for the first 5 years,
up that to 100k for starters. Add on top of the flu.

"Flu killed and hospitalized more people in the United States last
winter than any seasonal influenza in decades, according to new data
released Thursday...

Influenza killed about 80,000 people in the 2017-2018 season,
according to figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. The previous high for a regular flu season, based on
analyses dating back more than three decades, was 56,000 deaths."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/last-years-flu-broke-records-for-deaths-and-illnesses-new-cdc-numbers-show/2018/09/26/97cb43fc-c0ed-11e8-90c9-23f963eea204_story.html


> But do you think it will break Trumps economy  before November?
>
yeah
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 01, 2020, 07:48:50 PM
Interesting.  I think at least another zero is needed on that 50k number.  No prediction needed for the economy, it was being held together with spit and glue before COVID-19, I kinda surprised that question needed to be asked.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2020, 08:01:36 PM
>another zero

He called my hand on that one, too.

> But the flu has something like 0.1%  lethality and COVID-19 is closer to 3%
> so far.
>

Good point.  It's all a crap-shoot at this point.  Maybe 100k is wishful.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2020, 08:13:36 PM
<+>
>spit and glue before COVID-19, I kinda surprised that question needed to be asked.

I don't think many in the general public were that concerned about the US economy.  Now they are.

But this guy was actually questioning the *when* time range rather than the *if*.  November ain't that far away and he's modifying his finances to get ready.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2020, 10:21:13 PM
'"This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington state for the past six weeks," he wrote. "I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China."'

US: Coronavirus has been spreading for six weeks in Washington
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12313041

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 02, 2020, 10:27:02 AM
THIS...
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 02, 2020, 02:03:52 PM
I’ve just seen the costs associated with getting tested and the peripheral costs in the US.

Oh dear. That won’t help you out there.

Why would people bother getting tested.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 02, 2020, 03:26:59 PM
I’ve just seen the costs associated with getting tested and the peripheral costs in the US.

The cost of American health care could help coronavirus spread in the US
https://qz.com/1809382/us-health-care-costs-could-help-coronavirus-spread/

Quote
At least one American has already incurred hefty bills for seeking treatment for what he feared might be a coronavirus infection. When he developed flu-like symptoms after returning to Miami from a work trip to China, Osmel Martinez Azcue took himself to Jackson Memorial Hospital for testing. He asked for a flu test instead of the CT scan hospital staff wanted to conduct.

The flu test came back positive. Two weeks later, Azcue received an insurance claim for $3,270. His portion: $1,400.

“One of the disadvantages the US has in trying to tackle Covid-19 is that many people avoid going to see a health care provider because they are worried about the cost,” said Gavin Yamey, professor of global health and public policy at Duke University.

Look at the graphic - despite the common lack of access to health care in the US and the high costs to individuals, we actually spend more government money per capita than Canada, France, the UK. Only Germany and Norway spend more.
p. 3 of https://www.commonwealthfund.org/sites/default/files/2020-01/Tikkanen_US_hlt_care_global_perspective_2019_OECD_db_v2.pdf
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 02, 2020, 05:01:19 PM
BA cancelling more flights

https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1234522840231223298?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 02, 2020, 05:23:00 PM
>despite the common lack of access to health care in the US and the high costs to individuals, we actually spend more government money per capita

When I was a kid, they literally queued us down the blocks outside the schools to get polio (twice; 1st was shot, 2nd was sugar cube) and small pox (shot) vaccines.

<+>
They queued us up in the mid-60s to get tuberculosis screening. (That's how I avoided Vietnam, but that's a looooong story.)

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 02, 2020, 06:31:41 PM
>THIS...

I don't think anybody here is claiming CV is going to kill us all.  However, CV is highly contagious, has a long latency period and is killing the elderly and people with compromised health.  I think we are being pretty rational weighing the evidence so far.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 02, 2020, 06:51:11 PM
Quote
However, CV is highly contagious,

I think it will be interesting to see what happens in the care home mentioned here:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12313041

Old folks all clustered together.

Quote
Officials in the Seattle area announced two cases related to a possible outbreak at a long-term nursing home, Life Care Center in Kirkland. The elderly are considered to be especially vulnerable to infection.

One patient is a health-care worker in her 40s who was in satisfactory condition, according to state health officials. The other, a resident in her 70s, is in serious condition.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 02, 2020, 08:24:51 PM
>care home mentioned

My care home admin daughter & I are watching that one, too.  So far, there's been no feedback to her via the gov channels.  If the stats so far are correct, expect 10-20 deaths.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 02, 2020, 09:11:53 PM
I did see this kind of made me snigger.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 02, 2020, 10:16:23 PM
We're doomed. hhh
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 02, 2020, 10:43:45 PM
>care home

TL;DR: 3 4 dead, Rupert

A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
In addition, a woman in her 80s, who was already reported as in critical condition at Evergreen, has died. She died on 3/1/20
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 03, 2020, 05:57:22 AM
>snigger

Apparently those sheets were being held up for privacy.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 03, 2020, 06:10:26 AM
Quote
A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
In addition, a woman in her 80s, who was already reported as in critical condition at Evergreen, has died. She died on 3/1/20

Nearly misread that as Jan, not 2 days ago. Expect more then. also I see its a hospital, not a care home as I assumed.

I think this is the one:
https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 03, 2020, 09:10:48 AM
Quite a measured roundup. Doesn’t mean I’m not preparing a little.

https://www.julianagrant.com/blog/2020/2/29/coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 03, 2020, 09:42:14 AM
Blimey, that is more severe than my view...  so  do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?

Never mind plans going forward.... Talking to a mate last night who is going to Costa Rica for a few weeks in Aug....

All that is covered by this in his opinion:

Quote
Canceling non-essential travel

So why are so many airlines still flying?  If it was that serious we should be reducing the number of travellers at a Govt level.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 03, 2020, 10:40:36 AM
>so  do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?

No.

>So why are so many airlines still flying?  If it was that serious we should be reducing the number of travellers at a Govt level.

At a Govt level many flights are banned from certain countries already. In general the number of flights have been drastically reduced purely from a demand perspective.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 03, 2020, 01:13:34 PM
Coronavirus: a globalisation inflection point?

https://nextconf.eu/2020/03/coronavirus-a-globalisation-inflection-point/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 03, 2020, 02:13:00 PM
>so  do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?

No.

We have put two trips on indefinite hold.  The airlines and resorts involved didn't refund, but did allow the $$$ to be held on account.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 03, 2020, 03:18:26 PM
Worth knowing.

Making your own hand sanitizer is a cinch

https://boingboing.net/2020/03/03/making-your-own-hand-sanitizer.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 03, 2020, 09:48:49 PM
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2235972-coronavirus-may-have-been-circulating-undetected-in-the-us-for-6-weeks/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 03, 2020, 11:17:26 PM
WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

.1% flu

If borne out by further testing, this would make Covid-19 about 30+ times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally. Or 8,700,000 to 19,500,000.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 04, 2020, 12:03:31 AM
Hmm... we were still planning on a domestic flight - Fresno to Denver and back, no stops - next week. Hadn't considered cancelling until the Google annoucement
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 04, 2020, 12:06:33 AM
Google and Amazon ban all company travel
https://www.techrepublic.com/article/amazon-halts-all-employee-travel-google-adds-new-restrictions-due-to-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 04, 2020, 12:48:22 AM
1st case in NC, Wake Co. (Raleigh area).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 04, 2020, 09:08:14 AM
Vietnamese corona video, catchy tune.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDzvR_lFgVQ&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 04, 2020, 09:51:47 AM
1:08 What is she doing?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Adam C on March 04, 2020, 10:18:44 AM
Blimey, that is more severe than my view...  so  do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?

Just got back from a weekend snowboarding in Austria.  Got a cold, but think I'll survive.  Also got a trip planned at the end of March, to Switzerland.  No intention of cancelling.  Will see how things look in 3 weeks time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 05, 2020, 11:50:56 AM
John Hopkins take on it

https://twitter.com/technologic916/status/1234982966075375616?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 05, 2020, 04:29:29 PM
Quote
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

Quote
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result in an "attack rate" that would affect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population.
  -- same as above

Live interactive map with Johns Hopkins data
https://www.paypervids.com/coronavirus-live-interactive-map/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 05, 2020, 08:23:41 PM
So many countries are having failure of leadership issues with testing for and containing COVID-19 .  I guess they figure if they don't test and report the economic impact will be diminished.  Our own CDC took down the tally off of their website, then put it back under-inflated stats.  Trump is telling people to go to work with Coronavirus (https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-coronavirus-work-reaction_n_5e60c482c5b6bd126b761e42).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 05, 2020, 09:38:34 PM
We just bought some hand sanitizer from these guys.  They have a formula that they claim is good for killing germs for up to four hours after applied.

https://aprbiotech.com/

Quote
my-shield™ Hand Sanitizer is a fast-acting, alcohol- free formula product that kills germs, bacteria and viruses once applied. in addition to eliminating germs that are present on the skin, our proprietary nano-protective barrier Zetrisil offers long-lasting protection while aloe Vera gently moisturizes your skin. Protective barrier lasts up to 4 hours or 4-6 hand-washings at 100 percent effectiveness.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 05, 2020, 11:16:19 PM
Coronavirus News Feed
https://app.cronycle.com/feeds/82671

>my-shield

That's a good find littleman.  Thanks for sharing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 06, 2020, 05:51:48 AM
>Coronavirus News Feed
>https://app.cronycle.com/feeds/82671

Reddit has one too:
https://www.reddit.com/live/14d816ty1ylvo/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 06, 2020, 05:54:18 AM
https://twitter.com/julialindau/status/1235714275752267776

Quote
I just landed at JFK after reporting on #coronavirus in Milan and Lombardy —the epicenter of Italy’s  outbreak— for @vicenews
. I walked right through US customs. They didn’t ask me where in Italy I went or if I came into contact with sick people. They didn’t ask me anything.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 06, 2020, 05:49:21 PM
It’s not sounding great over there.

Is this sounding right?

https://twitter.com/dkthomp/status/1235977164895531009?s=21

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-06/chaos-at-hospitals-due-to-shortage-of-coronavirus-tests

Is this your Katrina FEMA moment? I hope not.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 06, 2020, 06:37:58 PM
>Is this your Katrina FEMA moment? I hope not.

I'm fully expecting it to be.  I am seeing very little pro-active actions/policies happening here.  We just passed 200 official cases -- that's what S. Korea was at two weeks ago, but unlike S. Korea we're not implementing wide spread testing, we're not closing schools, we're not wearing masks, we're getting contradictory messages about the risks of public interaction.  The government here seem to be more concern with optics, the stock market and inconveniencing people than doing what needs to be done to get it under control.  The average person on the streets still thinks its a problem somewhere else.

We had time to prep and the death tolls and the economic impact are going to be much worse than they could have been.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 06, 2020, 06:57:34 PM
>It’s not sounding great over there.

It's not.  We haven't quite lost the containment battle yet but my read is that we are losing it.  We are reacting instead of being proactive. Everything that should have been stockpiled is in short supply and mostly not made here anymore.  And bureaucracy is slowing things down, like we have to use the rationed CDC test not the WHO tests.

Worse, our hyper-expensive medical system is totally unprepared for what comes next.

And nobody really knows what to do, airports have no screening, it's apparent that there are a lot more un-diagnosed people running around spreading the virus than anyone wants to admit, our protective reactions are too slow and Bozo the Clown is in charge.

So basically, it's an epic cluster f--k.

Also:

Indiana gets first confirmed case
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/03/06/coronavirus-indiana-cases/4973737002/

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 06, 2020, 07:39:11 PM
Quote
I just landed at JFK after reporting on #coronavirus in Milan and Lombardy —the epicenter of Italy’s  outbreak— for @vicenews
. I walked right through US customs. They didn’t ask me where in Italy I went or if I came into contact with sick people. They didn’t ask me anything.

Vietnam would have put you in automatic quarantine for 14 days.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 06, 2020, 10:22:47 PM
If you have friends/relatives who aren't taking this seriously this clip could help persuade them.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1235994748005085186
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 06, 2020, 10:37:24 PM
Does it repeat? Plus he is picked up on the vaccine revenues?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 07, 2020, 12:15:26 AM
This site confounds me in that every informed but sarcastic comment that could be made, has already been made.

Both of our governments (US and UK) are already on public record for testing various germs back in the day, why should they stop now just because of The Law - it didn't stop them then, though, if you look at the publically (?) available docs there wasn't a strict law against emotional torture back then but they were certainly overstepping the boundaries.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 07, 2020, 05:02:29 AM
This is the danger.

https://twitter.com/momentsau/status/1236099432673718273?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 07, 2020, 12:43:29 PM
Quite big news.

Stanford cancel in person classes for this Q.

https://healthalerts.stanford.edu/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 07, 2020, 02:26:48 PM
Numbers: this Twitter thread is worth a read.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 07, 2020, 04:18:23 PM
If you have friends/relatives who aren't taking this seriously this clip could help persuade them.

What would you consider "taking it seriously?" Handwashing and avoiding large public gatherings? No travel?

Looking at what the latest from the Harvard and Johns Hopkins epidemiologists say has me both more and less worried.

On the one hand...

 - 20% to 60% will get infected in the next year (revised down from 40% to 70%). So there's a strong chance you're going to get it one way or the other.

 - final death rate will settle around .1% to .5%, so between equal and 5X the seasonal flu. Right now it's biased up because there have been a lot of cases that were treated as normal flu and went undetected. Some people appear to be infected but asymptomatic.

 - mostly people who are very old or very young or otherwise compromised will have responses requiring medical attention. That said, I see on graphs a big uptick in infection among the 50-60 age cohort and then a really big uptick in the 60-70 cohort. But I also know a lot of those people are not particularly healthy, especially respiratory fitness.


On the other hand...

 - it now appears that even people without serious symptoms can pass the disease. So you could get it from anyone.

 - the response in the US has been terrible. According a recent article in the Atlantic, the US has tested 2,000 people and South Korea has tested 140,000 (adjusted for population size, that's roughly like testing one million people in the US). Not to mention the person who came home from Italy and walked right through customs. This is turning very much into Trump's Katrina (i.e. public statements about what a good job Brownie/Pencie are doing while a major debacle unfolds).

All that said, I am living my normal life - going to work, hopping on a plane next week - but taking a few extra precautions in terms of giving people more space when possible, not shaking hands, washing more often, etc. And trusting that as a reasonably healthy person who is not very young or very old, my immune system will do okay.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 07, 2020, 04:35:46 PM
Numbers: this Twitter thread is worth a read.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

It is worth a read, but I find that when dealing with exponential growth, people typically make one of two assumptions, both of which are usually faulty.

The first is the unconscious one of not doing the math and not realizing at first, say, the Trouble with Tribbles. It's hard for people watching the early doublings to appreciate what a doubling means down the road. Think the famous pennies on a chessboard story.

The second is assuming that the exponential increase goes on indefinitely, but in fact an epidemic usually follows some sort of S-curve. The question is, when will we hit the inflection point? Will it before or after we run out of hospital beds?

Quote
Predicting the trend of an epidemic from limited data during early stages of the epidemic is often futile and sometimes misleading (3). Nevertheless, early prediction of the magnitude of an epidemic outbreak is immeasurably more important than retrospective studies. But how early is too early? Intuitively, the cumulative case curve will always be S-shaped and well-described by a logistic-type model. The essential factor is the time when the inflection of the cumulative case curve occurs, i.e., the moment when a rapid increase in case numbers is replaced by a slower increase. Since the inflection point, approximated by tm (1), dictates the point in time when the rate of increase of cumulative case numbers reaches its maximum, the moment marks the key turning point when the spread of the disease starts to decline. As long as the data include this inflection point and a time interval shortly after, the curve fitting and predicting future case number will be reasonably accurate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323156/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 07, 2020, 06:50:37 PM
I'm dealing with a situation here where my mother inlaw and (to a lesser extent) my step mother are not modifying their lifestyles or taking minimum precautions. They are both in the high risk categories and they both have spouses that are also high risk.  I'm sure you are likely to be fine Ergo if you get CV, but imagine how you would alter your decisions if you were in direct contact with high risk people.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 07, 2020, 06:57:44 PM
Pubcon postponed

https://www.pubcon.com/pubcon-florida-2020-postponed
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2020, 12:48:45 AM
Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the covid-19 epidemic  in Hubei, China, January and February 2020 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1.full.pdf)

Death rates range from less than 0.01% to 18%, depending on age.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2020, 01:07:52 AM
13 dead in that Washington nursing home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2020, 04:14:48 AM
Mike Pence on Twitter: The risk to the American public of contracting the Coronavirus remains low. (https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1236490272948846592)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 08, 2020, 09:19:32 AM
I keep seeing stuff about lack of testing.

https://twitter.com/mom101/status/1236340167411195911?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 08, 2020, 02:35:35 PM
Death rates range from less than 0.01% to 18%, depending on age.

Thanks for that. Numbers always help me see things more clearly.

That said, I wonder how it will play out in other countries.

On the one hand, China has some of the highest smoking rates in the world. Over half of all men smoke, which can't be good for respiratory diseases, especially in the older population with 30 or 40 years of smoking under their belts.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6546632/

On the other hand, 36% of the US is obese compared to 6% in China and 20% in Italy. I know from friends who are hospital docs, that obesity dramatically complicates acute care (medication levels, respiratory care, anesthesia).
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html

I'm sure you are likely to be fine Ergo if you get CV, but imagine how you would alter your decisions if you were in direct contact with high risk people.

Being in a major tourist destination, I may be in direct contact (though not frequent contact) with high-risk people. And we have some friends who are neither young nor fit, so I do need to take basic precautions for their sakes.

But yes, given my overall health, I'm not worried that I personally will die. Maybe have a really unpleasant week, but not die. I see that at my age, a lot of people are already compromised - COPD, obese, history of smoking - and I think that accounts for a lot of the rise in mortality as people get older. I would say my underlying health is more typical of people in their 40s, where the death rate is quite low based on your chart.

I'm mostly trying to keep my immune system healthy - plenty of sleep, decent eating, a bit of supplemental zinc - and paying more attention to touching my face after going out in public and not sharing things as much.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 08, 2020, 02:51:47 PM
I keep seeing stuff about lack of testing.

I was looking for the Atlantic article about test availability in the US and came across this

The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/were-not-facing-second-spanish-flu/607354/

It's a really interesting read - in 1918, they did not know there was such a thing as a virus and they did not even know at first it was a contagious disease. An early theory was that it was tainted Russian oats or misaligned planets. There were no antibiotics at the time, which are key for treating secondary infections in patients weakened by the virus. And in the 1916 flu outbreak, British physicians were still bloodletting soliders and hypothesizing that it hadn't worked because they hadn't bled them early enough.

Some years ago, I read a book about mosquitoes and as late as US takeover of the building of the Panama Canal (1904), most people did not believe that mosquitos could pass disease. Many volunteered to be bitten by mosquitoes that had bitten a Yellow Fever victim, stating that they were too strong and hardy to be taken down by a mere mosquito.

That was the state of medical knowledge just over 100 years ago.

------------

This is *an* article on test availability, but I keep seeing references to an Atlantic article that estimate that as of a few days ago, only 2,000 Americans had been tested, while 140,000 South Koreans had. This article, from March 3, says that 500 Americans had been tested and S. Korea is testing 10,000/day

The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
Because the U.S. data on coronavirus infections are so deeply flawed, the quantification of the outbreak obscures more than it illuminates.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

-----------

In other news from the Misuse of Statistic Department, an article on the viral poll saying 38% of Americans are afraid to drink Corona beer.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/about-corona-poll/607240/

Spoiler alert: beer drinkers were asked what brands they would drink and 38% said they would never drink Corona. The question has no link to the virus, but was about taste preference. This has not kept the poll result from going viral as evidence of how stupid people are. As if we need additional evidence.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 08, 2020, 02:58:31 PM
Pence sounds quite presidential in that video.

Meanwhile, the actual president says that he understands the virus so well because "I have a natural ability" and goes on to say that maybe he should have been a doctor instead of running for president. If only I could go back in time and make that so.

https://twitter.com/PreetBharara/status/1236117874458136576?s=20
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2020, 03:07:48 PM
How's this for a soundbite for your elders, LM?

Dr. Peter Hotez, during a Congressional hearing said the coronavirus
“is like the angel of death for older individuals.

'On Friday, the CDC quietly updated its website to tell older adults and people with severe medical conditions such as heart, lung or kidney disease to “stay home as much as possible” and avoid crowds. It urges those people to “take actions to reduce your risk of exposure,”'

https://time.com/5799117/white-house-coronavirus-seniors-flying/

CDC: People at Risk for Serious Illness from COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2020, 07:46:26 PM
16 dead in that Washington nursing home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2020, 08:21:22 PM
>soundbite

That's a pretty good one.

With frustration over the federal government hording tests Stanford, UCSF and Harvard are developing their own.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 08, 2020, 09:31:46 PM
>soundbite

For your relatives, I wonder... are they reticent to accept how high the risk is for the old and frail or to accept that THEY are old and frail? Depending on which one it is, it would require very different approaches.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2020, 10:06:35 PM
Honestly, I think it is a bit of both.  I went out to get some rubbing alcohol and I came back to see my in-law standing in my living room.  My first thought was "why are you here putting yourself at risk", then I found out that she went to church today.  I talked to my mother on the phone; her and her best friend were planning on going to their weekly mahjong game.  My wife's dad is still going to the gym, my dad's wife still goes to the store daily.  I am getting very frustrated.  ALL of these people have health issues and their age range is between 72 & 80.  I am about ready to pull my hair out.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2020, 10:29:18 PM
But if you do, we'll dump you in California --a sanctuary state.

State Department warns U.S. citizens not to go on cruises | Miami Herald
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241013416.html#storylink=rss
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 09, 2020, 02:11:56 AM
WHO Report from China attached.

Summary on Reddit here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/

Two key points, one petrifying, the other encouraging.

The encouraging one
Quote
Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says.

The scary part
Quote
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over.

Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 02:22:49 AM
https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/new/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 09, 2020, 09:06:17 AM
Quote
20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks.

Those are very scarey statistics.  This is all getting very depressing.  Can I inject a bit of humour?  :o
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/03/09/coronavirus-prevention.aspx

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 09, 2020, 10:45:37 AM
https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 09, 2020, 03:43:01 PM
Wow. Just WOW!

A cousin of mine and his wife had planned a cruise to top off a winter holiday and celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary. About a month ago Ken got cold feet about the cruise and they decided to cancel and come home early. Much to the amusement of the gossips in our community. "Living in fear" yada yada yada.

I talked to his wife this morning, and she said that the boat they were supposed to be on, boarding yesterday, was the now-quarantined Grand Princess which has some confirmed cases of covid-19.

File that under YIKES!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 09, 2020, 04:34:56 PM
I'm getting colder and colder feet about our upcoming trip, though we will not have a lot of exposure - single hop flight and then mostly spending time outdoors or alone indoors. But it's all sobering.

OT
A childhood friend of my father's was telling him how sad he was that his daughter was not going to make it home for the holidays. Her business meeting had run long and she had missed her flight home and other flights were booked. The flight was Pan Am 103.

One positive bit of CV news...

Air pollution map of China
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/2/21161324/coronavirus-quarantine-china-maps-air-pollution
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 09, 2020, 04:38:02 PM
Quote
Since the virus is already out there, should I avoid plane travel just to be safe? After all, when you fly aren't you breathing in recycled air?

"The air's actually pretty clean. It gets recirculated through these HEPA filters that really are very good at clearing stuff out," says Vicki Hertzberg, a biostatistician at Emory University, who co-led a study on flights and disease transmission with scientists at Boeing. "So in some aspects, the air on a plane is cleaner than what's going on in your new office buildings."

Moreover, Dr. Mark Gendreau, chief medical officer at Beverly Hospital in Massachusetts, says that airlines have a high incentive to keep their ventilation systems well-maintained: "If the HEPA filter is not changed regularly, if the system is not maintained well, it puts a lot of drag on the engines, which will increase the fuel consumption, which is quite an expensive proposition."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/06/812650868/coronavirus-travel-tips-to-fly-or-not-to-fly-what-happens-if-you-cancel
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 09, 2020, 05:09:05 PM
Little update on my elders:

I wrote a message to them going all in on the "you are likely to die if you are not careful" yesterday and haven't heard a peep yet.  My guess is that they are angry at me, but hopefully acting more sensibly now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 09, 2020, 05:41:43 PM
Quote
"The air's actually pretty clean. It gets recirculated through these HEPA filters that really are very good at clearing stuff out," says Vicki Hertzberg, a biostatistician at Emory University, who co-led a study on flights and disease transmission with scientists at Boeing. "So in some aspects, the air on a plane is cleaner than what's going on in your new office buildings."

Vietnams first case in a while, number 17, flew in from London. 12 other people on the same flight have tested positive already. Business class with just 21 passengers. I'm not flying anywhere except in an emergency and with a full hazmat.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 09, 2020, 05:52:18 PM
Here's what I wrote to my sons back on Feb 8:

Quote

I've been watching the coronavirus story with grave and growing concern.

In a nutshell, this thing spreads easily and hits hard. It's growing exponentially, and the story is certain to get worse before it gets better.

Our corner of the world seems normal for now but we need to be concerned.

I urge you to take practical actions NOW to be better prepared if trouble does come our way. Don't settle for "wait and see". The time to prepare for trouble is before it comes.

I urge you to get organized and supplied so your household could cope for an extended period if it became necessary to stay in. Stock up on groceries, meds and practical supplies so you could manage for several weeks without fresh supplies. Planning ahead is especially important for those with prescriptions or special dietary concerns.

Take action now while supply lines are still normal and stores can restock what you buy.

Some practical paranoia NOW might make a big difference to how well our families could weather the storm if it comes.

There's no downside to preparing. If the concern passes we can just eat our supplies.

"By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household." Hebrews 11:7

"The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it." Proverbs 22:3

My daughters-in-law have been heeding the "stock up early" advice but I don't know about actual behaviour changes. My brother is the one still in "no worse than the flu, why should I worry" denial. I wish I had an answer for that...
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 09, 2020, 05:56:08 PM
Buckworks, how old is your brother & does he have any health concerns?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 09, 2020, 06:04:32 PM
He's sixty and a former-smoker-turned-vaper.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 06:06:21 PM
LM,  Louise just got her elder sister to cancel attending a big bridge tournament in St. Augustine.  Here's what Louise sent her yesterday:

Dr. Peter Hotez, during a Congressional hearing said the coronavirus
“is like the angel of death for older individuals.”

https://time.com/5799117/white-house-coronavirus-seniors-flying/

CDC: People at Risk for Serious Illness from COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 09, 2020, 06:11:15 PM
Buckworks, oof, I hope he gets sensible.

RC, I used that quote too, thanks for the suggestion.  You could tell Louise to use NFFC's tidbit below if she needs more ammunition.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 09, 2020, 06:15:10 PM
Vietnams first case in a while, number 17, flew in from London. 12 other people on the same flight have tested positive already. Business class with just 21 passengers.

Holy crap!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 06:19:15 PM
Or tell them this....

Georgia preparing park for isolating patients exposed to coronavirus

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-news/georgia-preparing-park-for-isolating-patients-exposed-coronavirus/qtEDELBUm8Xo0TqlCRhPgI/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 09, 2020, 07:17:48 PM
I called my 88 yr old mother on Sunday and told her The Plan for coronavirus:

1. If it looks like it's spreading locally or lockdown imminent I will come and get her and we will ride it out with my stacks of canned goods.

2. If she starts getting sick I will come and get her.  She can't cope with this on her own.  We'll ride it out as best we can.

3. If I get sick first, then she's on her own and she should stay isolated as best she can.  I'll self isolate on my own.

I didn't want to scare her but I wanted her to know how dangerous this is and take extra precautions.  Mentally, she's tough, so I think it went well.  And also: that she's not alone unless we hit #3.

She has a heart condition but she's always had an amazing immune system against flu and the common cold.  She's also had her flu shot and the full course of pneumonia vaccines which will help against secondary infections if nothing else.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 07:45:47 PM
Lousy Coronavirus Prep in US Is Making It Worse for Canada

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xmnj/lousy-coronavirus-prep-in-us-is-making-it-worse-for-canada
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 09, 2020, 08:09:53 PM
A local lady just died, she was 60.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-09/woman-in-her-60s-is-first-coronavirus-death-in-santa-clara-county-a-tragic-development
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 08:10:14 PM
Israel orders all arrivals from abroad into two-week quarantine | The Times of Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-orders-all-arrivals-from-abroad-into-two-week-quarantine/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 08:35:23 PM
2 positive, 5 presumed positive cases of Coronavirus in South Carolina, officials confirm


https://www.wltx.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-south-carolina-current-cases/101-adcbb7ba-6d19-40a0-9f95-f251d0d682d7
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 09, 2020, 09:02:15 PM
Snapshot:  I went to Aldi today.  There was no hand sanitizer on the shelves.  Liquid hand soap was down to maybe 20 assorted pump bottles but it was actually marked down on sale!  Looks like Aldi is quietly doing a civic thing because their regular price is real good already.

Toilet roll was in stock.  It looked like the display got hit hard but they still had plenty.

Most of the rest of the store seemed well stocked.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 09, 2020, 09:06:24 PM
All of Italy to be placed under lockdown.  The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/09/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-italy-lockdown-quarantine-uk-usa-america-australia-recession-fears-update-latest-news?page=with:block-5e66a9ee8f085f0b8d945352#block-5e66a9ee8f085f0b8d945352
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2020, 09:32:45 PM
Vietnamese man cheats, sending staff to be quarantined in his stead - VnExpress International
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnamese-man-cheats-sending-staff-to-be-quarantined-in-his-stead-4066725.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 09, 2020, 11:51:25 PM
'Real' U.S. Coronavirus Cases May Have Topped 9,000, Scientists Say (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-09/real-us-coronavirus-cases-may-have-topped-9-000-scientists-say)

Quote
The investigators said they chose "very conservative" methods to estimate the number of coronavirus cases. "This makes our current estimation [of more than 9,000] likely to be an underestimation of the true number of infected individuals in the U.S.," they wrote in a medical center news release.

Their paper has not been peer-reviewed and should be considered preliminary until that time. It's posted online on a forum where physicians and researchers share information.

"We are making the results public before peer review as it will be important for timely and informed public health decision-making. We are also making the model available to the research community so that others can build upon it,"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2020, 01:06:02 AM
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 10, 2020, 01:25:37 AM
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

This:

Quote
The researchers also found that none of those passengers in the two buses who wore face masks were infected.
They said it vindicated the decision to ask people to wear a face mask in public.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 10, 2020, 04:48:53 AM
Looks like we're at a special level of hubris and incompetence.
Quote
CDC data now confirms that to date there have only been ~4000 persons tested in the entire United States total. By comparison, South Korea - a much smaller country - had tested over 65,000 people in the first week after their first case was detected.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 10, 2020, 06:06:14 AM
Still people are suggesting it’s not that serious.

Meanwhile

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 10, 2020, 09:48:21 AM
Iran looks good atm :-/

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/human-rights/27516-iran-coronavirus-death-toll-exceeds-2-000
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2020, 06:11:50 PM
' masks as a group had protective efficacy in excess of 80% against clinical influenza-like illness. The efficacy against proven viral infection and between P2 masks and surgical masks was non-significant.'

The First Randomized, Controlled Clinical Trial of Mask Use in Households to Prevent Respiratory Virus Transmission - International Journal of Infectious Diseases

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712%2808%2901008-4/fulltext
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 10, 2020, 07:21:02 PM
I went P3 and eye protection.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 10, 2020, 07:28:35 PM
I went P3 and eye protection.

I have two masks for spraying lacquer. They stop VOCs. That's a lot to wear around though. I was spraying lacquer yesterday and was walking around outdoors with it and wondered if the people driving by thought I was crazy or doing construction
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2020, 07:51:24 PM
> lacquer

Spray lacquer without the mask and you won't know or care if you have a virus.  (One large section of my house is paneled in lacquered tongue & groove juniper, I was high for days.)

OT:
All I have is surgical masks. I was glad to see them listed as effective ...though I never did subscribe to the idea that they wouldn't help.  That just didn't make sense.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 10, 2020, 07:59:08 PM
The whole “they don’t work” is hog sh##.

This is confirmed when the authorities say they need to be kept for medical staff.

Which is it?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2020, 08:05:54 PM
>The whole “they don’t work” is hog sh##.

I agree. I suspect the hog sh## was part of a plan to keep the panic level down when the shelves went bare.

BTW, I saw in my headlines that masks were proven to be effective by the Chinese during the SARS outbreak.  So the above study is not just a one-off.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 11, 2020, 09:13:25 AM
Why are there so few cases in Russia (rhetorical). 
Interesting though. I had only just spotted it.

Aeroflot is not the airline it used to be.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Adam C on March 11, 2020, 11:13:16 AM
so  do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?

Rupert, what's your current thinking?

I have a ski trip booked at the same time in Switzerland and am keeping a close eye on things.

All the Northern Italian ski resorts have shut for the season this week.

In Austria:  Ischgl has shut all apres ski bars - though restaurants and the lifts remain open.  I see St Anton seems to be shutting some apres ski bars - not 100% confirmed.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 11, 2020, 11:50:53 AM
How it messes you up

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/coronavirus-nears-fatal-tipping-point-when-lungs-are-inflamed
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 11, 2020, 11:52:16 AM
Just been speaking with someone who has a relative relative is drawing up plans for what the NHS will do. As in a real Dr.

They are looking at all sorts of stuff eg

1. Hierarchy of beds. eg if all things the same between two people, if you have kids you get first dibs.

2. The way it attacks the lungs if you get it sleep upright, and perform lung physio. Who involves whacking your chest.

3. You can't afford  this, but if you are struggling you need and ECMO bed
https://www.thoracic.org/patients/patient-resources/resources/what-is-ecmo.pdf

4. Some light reading
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/coronavirus-nears-fatal-tipping-point-when-lungs-are-inflamed
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 11, 2020, 01:25:20 PM
Good read
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 11, 2020, 02:31:08 PM
Adam,
There is a group of 10 of us, 3 families. We are booked to leave on 30th for 5 days.

I think that the flights will have been cancelled before we get to that date, and I am not cancelling, as then my insurance will not pay out.....

If I can fly, we "might" still go, but it really depends on what is happening on the ground, but I think it is getting to be unlikely. dont you?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 11, 2020, 02:36:51 PM
Important
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 11, 2020, 02:56:53 PM
> as then my insurance will not pay out....

Rupert, I'm reading that without “Cancel For Any Reason” (CFAR) coverage add-on, standard travel insurances are not paying out using the 'infectious disease' fine print.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 11, 2020, 03:28:44 PM
Map tracking coronavirus outbreak worldwide, hourly.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 11, 2020, 03:29:28 PM
<+>

Hundreds of Virus Patients Allowed to Try Gilead’s Ebola Drug
https://news.bloomberglaw.com/pharma-and-life-sciences/hundreds-of-corona-patients-allowed-to-try-gileads-ebola-drug
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 11, 2020, 03:31:28 PM
>Map tracking coronavirus outbreak worldwide, hourly.

Been using it for weeks now. It lags. Good for previous day numbers, though.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 11, 2020, 03:40:23 PM
Quote
Map tracking coronavirus outbreak worldwide, hourly.

Just realied I have been looking at the same one wrapped in a paypervids URL :) 
https://www.paypervids.com/coronavirus-live-interactive-map/

muppet.  only just looked at the source code!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 11, 2020, 05:52:16 PM
>I am not cancelling, as then my insurance will not pay out.....

Pandemic, they not paying out for anything. Cancel last moment if need be, lots of airlines bringing in a "if you already booked or about to book you can change flights free" stuff.

But mostly cancel.

Worth a gander https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 11, 2020, 06:01:25 PM
lots of airlines bringing in a "if you already booked or about to book you can change flights free" stuff.

In the US, that's mostly just for new bookings at this point. For United it's for bookings made after Mar 3. For Frontier it's for bookings made after Mar 10.

>>travel insurance

That depends on when you booked. EVery company has a different cutoff date.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/travel-insurance/coronavirus-questions/

Also, travel insurance is actually ridiculously hard to collect on. So many of the most common reasons for cancellation are not covered. I always advise people to either get no insurance and be comfortable with Sunk Costs or get "cancel for any reason" insurance, which is expensive, must be purchased within 14 days of first payment for your trip and almost never pays out 100%. But if you want insurance, get "cancel for any cause/reason" or no insurance at all.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 11, 2020, 06:08:54 PM
Southwest let me cancel the trip to TX but would only issue a credit to my account for future use.

Disney World canceled the hotel rooms but the tickets were put on ''future use" status --no credit issued.

This was done first week of Feb, so policies might have changed.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 11, 2020, 06:34:12 PM
viable virus could be detected up to...

3 hours later in the air
4 hours on copper
24 hours on cardboard
2-3 DAYS on plastic and stainless steel.


https://apnews.com/fe0239e95b8ad1037639ed833b990e48
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 11, 2020, 06:52:24 PM
How do I plan a wedding during the coronavirus outbreak?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/10/coronavirus-how-plan-wedding-amid-covid-19-outbreak/4950647002/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 11, 2020, 07:21:56 PM
My insurance company cover me if I am advised not to travel by the Govt, or if the flight is cancelled.

I am not covered for unwillingness.

I have checked with them.  I do have to talk to the airline first of course. Its likely to be protracted for example I have Only just got £500 from Norwegian after a 6 hour delay last Autumn.

also, useful info: 

Quote
The airline I’m due to travel with has cancelled flights because it’s to an area where the FCO/DFA are advising against travel to and I can no longer travel am I covered?

    Under EU Law your airline must let you choose between either a refund or an alternative flight.

As for Weddings, a friend rents out a big house for weddings....  he is worried that people will start to cancel....

We had our first cancellation on the holiday property. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 11, 2020, 07:27:00 PM
>Southwest

That's always been their policy. If you fly semi-regularly, it's easy to use the (full) credit.

>copper

Saw a tweet about copper tape on door knobs as a cheap mitigation strategy for retirement homes / at-risk folks. Lots available on Amazon.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 11, 2020, 08:13:04 PM
This is Jen's prep list:

Quote
-frozen fruits and veggies, frozen meats, frozen protein sources for Maddie
-canned veggies, beans, lots of canned tomatoes
-chicken stock, veggie stock
-dried fruits and nuts
-canned fish
-rice, dried beans, pasta/pasta sauce
-produce that won't go bad for a while like squash, onions, potatoes, cabbage, daikon and citrus fruit
-cheese (can put some in the freezer)
-butter, flour, yeast, sugar
-water (I didn't buy, but just filled up empty milk containers and rotate through them to water plants so they will be relatively fresh)
-toilet paper, paper towels, pads, tampons
-over the counter medications (allergy, pain)
-hand sanitizer, alcohol, wipes
 
There are quality of life items like:

-coffee/tea/favorite drinks
-chocolate
-favorite snacks/crackers, etc.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 11, 2020, 08:18:10 PM
Going viral right now: https://staythefuckhome.com/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 11, 2020, 08:35:22 PM
>prep list

-Get 'scripts filled as soon as available
-RC's mail sanitation solution seems smart (especially if you start ordering replenishment online)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Torben on March 11, 2020, 08:40:35 PM
Denmark is shutting down for 2 weeks. All schools and non-critical instutions will be closed for the next 2 weeks. We only have 500 confirmed cases but it is rising fast, so the government has decided to action so we don't end up like Italy
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 11, 2020, 10:05:17 PM
>like Italy

Or worse,  the US bumblefucks.

Research finds huge impact of interventions on spread of Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/research-finds-huge-impact-of-interventions-on-spread-of-covid-19
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 11, 2020, 10:08:29 PM
US Govt orders all health deliberations as being classified

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-secrecy-exclusive-idUSKBN20Y2LM
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 11, 2020, 10:23:22 PM
North Portland’s Shine Distillery Is Giving Away House-Made, 80-Percent-Alcohol Hand ‘Cleaner’

https://pdx.eater.com/2020/3/11/21174997/shine-distillery-hand-cleaning-solution
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2020, 01:54:43 AM
NO Eurotrash!

Trump Announces 30-Day Ban On All Travel From Europe With UK Exception To Combat Wuhan Virus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 12, 2020, 07:40:23 AM
Quote
Trump Announces 30-Day Ban On All Travel From Europe With UK Exception To Combat Wuhan Virus

BREXIT!!!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 12, 2020, 10:06:30 AM
sh## plan. All will come to UK / Ireland to fly home.

So we get the traffic.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 12, 2020, 12:20:16 PM
My Amazon Supply Pipeline: Stuff ordered but not yet delivered.

1. DAK 6 X 16 oz. canned hams
2. Pedialyte Electrolyte Powder
3. 3M Personal Protective Equipment Large Half Facepiece Reusable Respirator
4. 3M 2097 P100 Particulate Filter with Organic Vapor Relief, 2 Pairs (4 Filters)
5. NOW Foods - Zinc Picolinate 50 mg, 120 capsules
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Adam C on March 12, 2020, 12:48:33 PM
Adam,
There is a group of 10 of us, 3 families. We are booked to leave on 30th for 5 days.

I think that the flights will have been cancelled before we get to that date, and I am not cancelling, as then my insurance will not pay out.....

If I can fly, we "might" still go, but it really depends on what is happening on the ground, but I think it is getting to be unlikely. dont you?

Less and less likely by the day.

Similar boat.  At least we haven't paid up front for the hotel, just the flights.  My biggest fear about taking the trip (if its even possible) is ports closing whilst we're away or some enforced quarantine that delays us getting home.  Time for a back up plan.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 12, 2020, 04:55:41 PM
Quote
is ports closing whilst we're away or some enforced quarantine that delays us getting home.


There is always a plus.... extra skiing.  ;)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 12, 2020, 05:01:36 PM
>sh## plan
It is no plan at all, we are void of leadership.  I think we are very likely to be similar to Italy here.  People can't even get tested.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2020, 06:44:24 PM
Iran: Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: BoL on March 12, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
Keeping kids off school in the UK seems inevitable. Not sure why the Scotland vs Wales game as the Millenium Stadium is still happening.

Just worried about the older folks in my family, one of my nieces works at the local hospital.

The financial indices have taken some pounding. Was almost tempted on a spread bet but abstaining from gambling.

If there's an upshot, this reduced consumption will be good for global warming. Contentious I know!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2020, 09:29:55 PM
>Contentious

Not as much as THIS guy;

Telegraph journalist says coronavirus ‘cull’ of elderly could benefit economy
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/11/telegraph-journalist-says-coronavirus-cull-elderly-benefit-economy-12383907/

That's right, of course.  Clear the unproductive dead wood and pensioners. Free up loads of resources.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on March 12, 2020, 09:30:08 PM
Will be interesting to see the updated sales projections for us with the NCAA tournament cancelled, NBA and NHL on hold for now, MLB delayed a couple weeks, soccer games cancelled and postponed, etc. Guessing it will be quite a substantial number. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2020, 09:36:15 PM
Canceling March Madness will kill more North Carolinians than CV19. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 12, 2020, 10:26:16 PM
Indiana Governor today:
https://calendar.in.gov/site/gov/event/gov-holcomb-announces-new-steps-to-protect-public-from-covid-19/

It looks like the States have quit waiting around for guidance from the Feds.  CA, WA, NY have already taken the lead. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2020, 10:34:13 PM
Ohio & NC governors just went rogue.  Crowd limits set at 100.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 12, 2020, 11:13:50 PM
They are allowed to do that I presume.

Haven’t understood the limit numbers. 1000 or 100 that’s still a lot of people.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 12, 2020, 11:15:49 PM
>100 that’s still a lot of people

That's the number in California too.  The idea is to slow down the spread.  We're not even trying to stop it, just keep it from overwhelming the health care system.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2020, 11:29:42 PM
>They are allowed to do that I presume.

Yeah. Once they declare a state of emergency, the gov is in the catbird seat.  NC gov said it wasn't mandatory, but if ignored he would make it so.

Your gov just issued an order that says CA can commandeer hotels to use as hospitals.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 12, 2020, 11:38:22 PM
>CA can commandeer hotels to use as hospitals

They just took over a hotel in San Carlos (10 minutes from here) to house the Grand Princess cruise ship people.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 01:29:15 AM
USA: CDC tested only 77 people this week; coronavirus testing slow around the nation (https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-tested-only-77-people-this-week-coronavirus-testing-slow-around-the-nation-153646616.html)

We're going to make Italy look good in a few weeks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 01:36:51 AM
We're still a Republic.  Let's hope most of our governors have the balls to do what they need to do. Our governor said today that the CDC didn't deliver what they'd promised and he wasn't going to wait for them any more.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 01:45:34 AM
Coronavirus can live in your body for up to 37 days, according to new study - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-can-live-in-your-body-for-up-to-37-days-according-to-new-study/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 02:01:54 AM
Indiana set the limit at 250 which is too high, but I reckon he didn't want pushback from the churches.  I expect they will tighten that number down in the future.

>They are allowed to do that I presume.

For those not in the US:  States and their Governors have a lot of power almost the power of a sovereign.  They can declare a state of emergency or even martial law.  These are rarely used, so rarely that we often forget they have those powers, but they are there.

>Republic

This is a perfect example of why we are a Federal Republic: when the Fed's refuse to act or for whatever reason cannot act, the States can act, if they have the balls.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 13, 2020, 02:20:52 AM
Canada's First Lady, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, has tested positive:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-tests-positive-for-covid-19-pm-begins-14-day-isolation-1.4850159
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 03:02:46 AM
I was rather proud of our POA (HOA) at the meeting tonight.  They are organizing volunteers that will do the marketing for people in the neighborhood that have to self-isolate due to the coronavirus.  POA's get a lot of sh## on social networks but mine has always risen to the occasion to help neighbors in a crisis.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 03:52:55 AM
What Governors Are Doing To Tackle Spreading Coronavirus

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/815200313/what-governors-are-doing-to-tackle-spreading-coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 13, 2020, 07:37:18 AM
>but I reckon he didn't want pushback from the churches.

If live streaming is good enough for the Pope...

Could be a problem here in Cyprus. Easter is a huge time for church and celebrations, entire villages get together. 12th April this year, off to have a word with the Mayor!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 13, 2020, 08:43:20 AM
LM.. the skiing comment was just a bad attempt to lighten the mood.

Looks like the place is shutting down now:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-austrian-resorts-stem-virus.html

Someone said to me last night, had I noticed how many famous folk had tested positive, and that it seemed out of proportion to all the other figures available...

Ties in with the theory its out there.... and most get mild symptoms.

I am off work today (Staying at home) with a cough. First positive in my home town too, Ashbourne. Pop less than 10,000.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 13, 2020, 09:05:27 AM
RC did you ever work out the number of residence at that Seattle nursing home?

Quote
“The mortality rate is shocking,” said Mark Parkinson, president and chief executive of the American Health Care Association. He said the death rate might well exceed the 15 percent that had been reported in China for people aged 80 and older.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 13, 2020, 10:24:37 AM
>> famous folk

They are people with extensive social networks who are probably out and about more than we ordinary mortals.

It's similar to how diseases spread fastest along transportation routes. Lots of contacts!

------

On a different note, I saw a coronavirus graphic on Facebook, red with spiky things, and at first my brain thought it was a crocheted wool hat with bobbles. A slightly macabre craft idea!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 13, 2020, 12:31:52 PM
>Someone said to me last night, had I noticed how many famous folk had tested positive

What we need, and forgive me, is one of them to die. A Rock Hudson moment.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 13, 2020, 01:28:12 PM
Tom Hanks is solid. Aids and shipwreck survivor.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on March 13, 2020, 01:29:31 PM
Welp, our SC gov seems to think everything is just fine and no need to cancel anything, from wed:

https://www.wistv.com/2020/03/11/sc-governor-says-schools-should-not-close-events-should-not-cancel-wake-coronavirus/

At this point, I am figuring we're going to get this. It is just a matter of time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 13, 2020, 01:41:22 PM
My Hotel has refunded... The whole of the Tyrol is shutting down this weekend. Just Easyjet to tackle.

The UK govt seem to have announced they want 60% of the population to get it.... get some herd defences up.  Meanwhile the old and other costly people die. feeling a tad cynical.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 02:19:45 PM
>RC did you ever work out the number of residence at that Seattle nursing home?

The last I saw was 19 and still on a rampage. CV is also now in 10+ elder care facilities in that state. But I had to quit following that story and shift my focus to North Carolina nursing home policy research to help my daughter.  I fine-tuned my newsfeed firehose and sent her dozens of articles supporting total lock-down of visitation to support her pressuring corporate.  Late yesterday, corporate did agree and she went to a visitation ban.

Now I'm working on a travel ban for dumb-a## nursing home staff who insist on traveling to impacted areas for vacations, family reunions, etc.

===========

Though Louise & I thought we had enough household supplies for 2 weeks isolation, we decided to would increase it for a longer stay.  Currently, the closest cases are an hour away, so we were expecting the grocery store to be in better shape than those pictured in the news.  We waited until 11 pm so that there wouldn't be many shoppers, donned our dorky surgical masks, and went.  As expected, the shelves were stocked pretty well, plenty of food & produce. Only the bread and toilet paper aisles were hard hit -90% empty- but we were able to find some, just not the usual brands.  Hand sanitizer, peroxide, and iso alcohol were out-of-stock. We bought the last 2 large jugs of liquid soap.

Nobody pointed and hooted at us for wearing masks, so I didn't have to kill anyone.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 03:25:38 PM
<+>

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces for *NINE* days - nih.gov
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/32035997/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on March 13, 2020, 04:23:13 PM
>>grocery store to be in better shape than those pictured in the news

I went last night. Most of the store was still fine. There were no bags of rice left and only a few bags of flour. Plenty of pasta, canned goods, cereal, frozen food, and other shelf stable food. The TP aisle was hit hard. Didn't check the soap or sanitizer aisle.

Pretty sure we are stocked up enough to get us through about a month if needed. A freezer full of meat, a shed full of charcoal, and a backyard full of grills should keep us eating for a while. And a pantry full of beans, rice, pasta, canned fruit, etc. Milk and eggs might be a problem after a couple weeks. There are a couple big jugs of soap in the closet too.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 13, 2020, 04:39:12 PM
We could likely last three months without resupply but menus would be getting weird if it went on too long.  8)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 04:59:57 PM
>Milk and eggs might be a problem after a couple weeks.

Milk is huge in this house.  We're still planning on getting it 2-3 gallons at a time while we are able too.  It would be nice if we had available pasteurized milk like the rest of the world.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 05:03:58 PM
I just got back from the store.  They are not out of most shelf stable items, but the shelves have been hit pretty hard (ie you can get pasta but maybe not the shape or brand you like.)  Canned fruit, oatmeal and peanut butter also hit hard.  Plenty of liquid hand soap but the shelves are not full.  No hand sanitzer.

The run has begun.

The big difference between now and less than a week ago: Trump's speech.  The man  punctured everybody's confidence.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 05:06:27 PM
>milk

3 days ago Amazon still had powdered milk.

#10 cans of powdered eggs will be available in 1 - 3 months.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 05:21:13 PM
>Amazon

I'm just seeing small (pricy) packs of powdered milk now.  You have a link?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 13, 2020, 05:29:52 PM
This week, the CDC has tested 77 people for coronavirus & the Utah Jazz have tested 58.

https://twitter.com/jesselehrich/status/1238253019176873985?s=21

I don't think you realise how bad this is going to.

We saw it coming and sent Meghan over the water to help steady the ship, alas not enough.

If you ask very nicely and say sorry about the tea thing we will send: Her Britannic Majesty Elizabeth the Second, by the Grace of God of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and of Her Other Realms and Territories Beyond the Seas, Queen, Defender of the Faith, Head of the Commonwealth.

She will sort the mess out for you.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 05:37:55 PM
>Amazon

I'm just seeing small (pricy) packs of powdered milk now.  You have a link?

That was quick.  All the big cans are gone.  Sorry. 

Dollar store?  Costco?  Camping supply?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 05:39:52 PM
>the CDC has tested 77

This is not an accident.  When you have a moron for president people get to die.  Trump reportedly rejected aggressive coronavirus testing in hopes it would help his re-election (https://theweek.com/speedreads/902009/trump-reportedly-rejected-aggressive-coronavirus-testing-hopes-help-reelection)

Added:

Thanks Brad, it is not essential for us, we are well stocked otherwise.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 05:55:06 PM
>milk

Look in the baking aisle for Rice Dream. It is easy to like, has a long shelf life boxed.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002GPG6BE/

Also the almond milks are tolerable. Louise says it is also becoming available in un-refrigerated box form now.

>copper

I had some copper tape and just put a copper cover on the handle to the mailbox. Good thinking, Trav.

>produce

Get some heads of cabbage.  You can leave it on your porch, balcony, or anywhere that'll keep it out of reach of vermin.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 13, 2020, 06:08:42 PM
Some of my Amazon packages have gone AWOL.  No tracking just "if it does not arrive by X date we'll talk."  I think they just put these on a pack mule, slapped it on the butt and hoped it would find it's way here.

Specifically the canned hams and pedialyte have gone missing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 06:25:56 PM
Ouch, sorry Brad. 

We have some milk substitutes here from TJs, almond milk, coconut milk, and some rice milk.  Its just nice to have the real thing for the kids.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 06:32:42 PM
>AWOL

I'm hoping my ozone generators get here tomorrow.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 06:37:18 PM
Italy to suspend mortgage payments amid outbreak (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51814481)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 06:55:48 PM
>mortgage

PG&E says it will stop cutting off power in Cali for overdue payments.

==========

New York Gov. Cuomo says state has the most coronavirus cases in the US as new cases jump 30% overnight to 421
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/new-york-state-now-has-the-most-coronavirus-cases-in-the-us-as-new-cases-jump-30percent-overnight-to-421.html

National Guard activated to combat coronavirus spread in six states, more to follow
https://www.armytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/03/13/national-guard-activated-to-combat-coronavirus-spread-in-six-states-more-to-follow/

Fauci answers: What's The Latest On The Coronavirus Vaccine?
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/whats-the-latest-on-the-coronavirus-vaccine/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 13, 2020, 08:44:59 PM
"In the last hour, the Cypriot government has announced that only its citizens, along with other Europeans working on the island and people with special permits will be allowed into the country for a 15-day period beginning on Sunday."

Not the only ones either.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 09:08:49 PM
Link (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/johnson-s-u-k-virus-strategy-needs-people-to-catch-the-disease)
Quote
Boris Johnson’s government hasn’t quite said it, but its plan for tackling coronavirus is clear: Slow the disease’s spread, but don’t stop it. Most people will get the disease, a lot of them will feel very ill, but almost all of them will recover.

The goal is “herd immunity” -- the point where a high enough proportion of the population has had an illness, and gained immunity to it, that it won’t be transmitted to those who haven’t had it. The aim is to achieve this over the summer months, before the next winter sets in.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 13, 2020, 09:24:24 PM
"In the last hour, the Cypriot government has announced that only its citizens, along with other Europeans working on the island and people with special permits will be allowed into the country for a 15-day period beginning on Sunday."

Not the only ones either.

I assume you fall into one of those categories?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 13, 2020, 11:11:13 PM
> I assume you fall into one of those categories?

Residency permit so yes.

Plus I'm here and not leaving.

5 year visa the other end so I can go back home if need be. No point until they open the schools and they won't open the schools until it's safe. Schools have been closed since 22nd Jan btw, they don't play in Vietnam.

School work all online. Never realised how much work the kids have to do and how advanced it is.

Also never realised how much I love touching my face ;)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2020, 11:32:00 PM
Cyprus reporting 19.  Got a yacht moored at the dock?

>Also never realised how much I love touching my face

We did.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 13, 2020, 11:40:52 PM
>> we did

Today’s winning comment 😂
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 14, 2020, 01:42:38 AM
Judging from how people are acting, I think the average American woke up yesterday/today and went from ignoring to near panic.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Adam C on March 14, 2020, 08:42:50 AM
My Hotel has refunded... The whole of the Tyrol is shutting down this weekend. Just Easyjet to tackle.


Switzerland a little later to react but have now decided to close all ski areas from Sunday.

Free cancellation on our hotel with Booking and for the flights a voucher we can use within a year with BA to any destination, so not really out of pocket.

Glad I got 2 trips in before this kicked off. Mrs C (who didn't) isn't so sanguine.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 14, 2020, 08:57:39 AM
This is a good roundup in the U.K. approach which many think is insane.

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 14, 2020, 11:22:27 AM
Boarders do matter.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 14, 2020, 01:30:28 PM
Funny and sad both at once!

"Honest government ad"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hks6Nq7g6P4
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 03:51:33 PM
Newborn baby tests positive for coronavirus in London
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/newborn-baby-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-in-london
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 14, 2020, 04:06:07 PM
Rumour has it laptops are hard to find in some parts of the UK, as everyone wants to work from home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 04:24:40 PM
>work from home

My ISP, Spectrum, slowed considerably starting about 2 days ago.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 08:05:46 PM
Coronavirus: Donald Trump extends US travel ban to UK and Ireland - The National
https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/coronavirus-donald-trump-extends-us-travel-ban-to-uk-and-ireland-1.992507
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 14, 2020, 08:19:31 PM
From Twitter:  Civicscience started it, Mark Cuban picked it up for the Mavs and his companies:  They are going to reimburse their working from home employees for lunch and coffee/tea if bought at a small local shop no big corp chains.

https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1238866595382013953?s=20

Also my reusable respirator half mask from 3M came in as well as the filters.  (Hat Tip to RC and ukgimp who gave me the idea when they were talking about P2 and P3 masks)

Also, 2 recipes for hand sanitizers (one a spray) from Wired:

https://www.wired.com/story/how-to-make-hand-sanitizer/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 14, 2020, 08:34:27 PM
>travel ban

As we all know this basically near pointless at this point, it is here spreading domestically across the country.  What needs to happen is mass temperature screening for all domestic and international flights and any other situation where people collect together.   Mexico is talking about closing the border with the United States.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 14, 2020, 08:53:00 PM
Interactive data, good for lots of visuals on growth curves and such -- getting a little hammered right now.

https://www.gohkokhan.com/corona-virus-interactive-dashboard-tweaked/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 09:05:21 PM
New governator not cutting any slack.

Governor Roy Cooper
@NC_Governor
Today, I’m issuing an Executive Order to stop mass gatherings of more than 100 people across the state. We issued this as guidance on Thursday, however, despite this guidance, several venues continued their events, so today’s order makes it mandatory.
4:31 PM · Mar 14, 2020
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 09:51:23 PM
'The cobas test aims to provide results in three-and-a-half hours, with a total of 1,440 samples tested per day on the 6800 system and 4,128  per day on the larger 8800. It can also be run simultaneously with other disease assays.

FDA grants Roche coronavirus test emergency green light within 24 hours

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-grants-roche-coronavirus-test-emergency-green-light-within-24-hours
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 10:05:16 PM
'The Pentagon will soon impose an almost complete lockdown on travel for its military and **CIVILIAN** workforce as part of its effort to stem the spread of coronavirus, officials said Friday night.'

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/defense-main/2020/03/dod-imposes-near-total-domestic-travel-ban-for-its-personnel/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 14, 2020, 10:10:51 PM
Re milk:

I just came back from having tea with my 90-year-old neighbour. Our conversation included quarantine prep, and she dropped a comment that caught my attention after some of the comments in this thread.

She mentioned that she had some cartons of regular fresh milk in one of her freezers (!), and intended to get some more. She said frozen milk isn't quite like fresh when it thaws, but even if someone didn't enjoy drinking it straight it would be good for cocoa, smoothies, baking, puddings, etc.

i told her I'd mention this to some of my internet friends and she was pleased to think it might be a helpful thought even though she wasn't quite sure what a forum is!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 14, 2020, 10:19:55 PM
Thank you Buckworks and please thank your neighbor for me.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 14, 2020, 11:34:50 PM
Currently, the death rate in Washington state is 6.2%
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 14, 2020, 11:37:32 PM
I’ve been freezing milk for years?

You US folk are a little odd.

Word of warning, it can go a funny colour when frozen. Goes back to normal.

100% ok.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 15, 2020, 12:08:41 AM
I’ve been freezing milk for years?

You US folk are a little odd.

Never had a reason to freeze milk before, maybe its because we've haven't had scarcity since WWII.  Is this something done a lot over there?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on March 15, 2020, 12:27:19 AM
>You US folk are a little odd.

Your emergency sammich would like to have a word. hhhh
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 15, 2020, 01:52:47 AM
New governator not cutting any slack.

Governor Roy Cooper
@NC_Governor
Today, I’m issuing an Executive Order to stop mass gatherings of more than 100 people across the state. We issued this as guidance on Thursday, however, despite this guidance, several venues continued their events, so today’s order makes it mandatory.
4:31 PM · Mar 14, 2020

We've had the 100 people prohibition for a few days now.  The local mandate just went up.

Quote
On order of the health officer, gatherings of more than 50 individuals are prohibited in San Mateo County effective 12:01 a.m. Sunday, March 15, 2020. Gatherings between 10 and 50 individuals are prohibited unless specific mitigation measures are taken:


The space in which the gathering is held must accommodate social distancing by allowing all attendees to stand or sit at least six feet from any other attendee;
   
Proper hand hygiene and sanitation material must be readily available to all persons at all times, including soap and waste receptacles. If soap and water are not available, alcohol-based hand sanitizer can be used.
   
Persons hosting gatherings must alert prospective attendees at least 24 hours prior to the gathering that gatherings pose a heightened risk of COVID-19 transmission, and that older adults and individuals with existing health conditions are at particularly serious risk if they contract COVID-19 and should not attend;
   
Persons hosting gatherings must clean surfaces with disinfecting wipes or other standard cleaners before, during, and after the event

10 to 50 exemptions:
hospitals
hotels
offices
airport
regular religious services
grocery stores
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 02:22:18 AM
High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 by Jingyuan Wang, Ke Tang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 02:47:42 AM
Not yet credible, IMO, but I'm seeing the headline spread.

UK Elderly to be quarantined 'for four months' in 'war-time' style coronavirus plan | Metro News
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/14/elderly-quarantined-four-months-war-time-style-plans-battle-coronavirus-12399289/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 15, 2020, 04:23:36 AM
Metro. Not even bothered to click the link. :-)

Drastic. The emergency Sandwhich will save you. Well it will stop you being hungry. But that’s a start :-)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 15, 2020, 07:11:12 AM
>frozen milk

Get some protein powder instead/as well

>You US folk are a little odd.

Pot, kettle.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 15, 2020, 09:10:17 AM
We also have been freezing milk for years. Its fine.
Defrost in a bowl of water and it's quick and better controlled.

Don't trust the Metro. Rich is right. If a little odd these days 😂😂
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 15, 2020, 11:50:57 AM
Mexico Mulls Shutting Northern Border Over Virus Spread Threat

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mexico-mulls-shutting-northern-border-over-virus-spread-threat

ADDED:
TROOPS ON THE STREETS Army brought in to guard hospitals and supermarkets in UK
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11175682/army-brought-into-guard-hospitals-supermarkets-coronavirus/

SEE ICU BEDS BELOW

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 15, 2020, 12:26:52 PM
ICU beds Mike.

Who is going to pay for that. You're quite expensive over there.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 02:35:04 PM
All U.S. Travelers Now Under A Level 2 Travel Advisory

Level 2 also means that ALL travelers should monitor their health and limit interactions with others for a period of 14 days after returning from travel **WITHIN** the U.S.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/03/14/the-us-is-now-under-a-level-2-travel-advisory/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 15, 2020, 03:04:40 PM
Seen and Heard:  One guy on the Internets, in self isolation, said he was drinking "quarantinis"  which are just regular martinis but you drink them alone.  hhh
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 03:31:14 PM
 "quarantinis" 

New recipe per /r is Everclear spiked with 1000mg of vitamin C.  Drink 2 of those and you're guaranteed to self-quarantine for a day.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Torben on March 15, 2020, 05:59:13 PM
Simulation of quaratine and social distancing https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 06:54:40 PM
>Metro

UK Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks' - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 15, 2020, 07:47:57 PM
From Monday, 16 March from 6 am for four weeks, the closure of the following businesses is mandatory:

https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-cafes-department-stores-to-close-full-list-of-businesses-to-close/

Luckily I got a tip off, supermarket raided, we set.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 08:10:49 PM
Someone emailed me saying how they'd been tracking cv for a long time -- since March 1st.  Pfffftt! This thread was started  25-01-2020.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 08:22:15 PM
US man tested and in quarantine since Feb 4th is still testing positive after 6 weeks.
https://www.hometownstation.com/santa-clarita-news/coronavirus/carl-goldman-tests-positive-once-again-for-coronavirus-in-covid-19-quarantine-part-28-317645

==============

Gov DeWine Closes Restaurants And Bars In Ohio
https://radio.wosu.org/post/coronavirus-ohio-dewine-closes-restaurants-and-bars-ohio
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 15, 2020, 08:36:02 PM
Norwegian university tells students in US to return home due to ‘poorly developed health services.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/norwegian-university-tells-students-in-us-to-return-home-due-to-poorly-developed-health-services-report/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 09:23:43 PM
California Gov. Newsom orders home isolation for ALL SENIORS, bars to close, restaurants to limit capacity
https://www.ktvu.com/news/california-gov-newsom-orders-home-isolation-for-all-seniors-bars-to-close-restaurants-to-limit-capacity
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 15, 2020, 11:10:03 PM
CDC recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the U.S..
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on March 16, 2020, 02:55:45 AM
Schools are closed statewide here through end of the month. Finally someone is waking up.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 16, 2020, 03:35:43 AM
The Mexican government telling everyone COVID-19 no big deal...
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 16, 2020, 09:18:57 AM
https://wcti12.com/news/offbeat/oregon-police-department-asks-public-to-avoid-calling-911-if-they-run-out-of-toilet-paper
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 16, 2020, 02:27:36 PM
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 16, 2020, 02:59:44 PM
A report from a neighbor:  all the local Big Box appliance stores have sold out of freezers.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 16, 2020, 03:20:27 PM
Welp, AFAIK, Walmart is the only local grocery store that has online ordering -pickup only. Louise thought she'd give it a trial run to fill in a few thin spots in the pantry.  Nope, the available pickup times are full for the next 2 days (which is the limit in their cart).  She's going to try after midnight to get in the queue.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 16, 2020, 03:27:32 PM
And Russia....

Claim 90 cases, 8 recovered Zero deaths.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 16, 2020, 03:31:47 PM
>Russia

West Virginia is reporting zero ...but they haven't tested anyone.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on March 16, 2020, 04:14:34 PM
Schools closed here until April 24th. The governor closed all bars and restaurants last night. They can still do take out and delivery but no dine in. That is going to kill a lot of local restaurants and bars. The big chains should be OK but running a restaurant is already a tough road.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 16, 2020, 06:03:07 PM
The Mexican government telling everyone COVID-19 no big deal...

Here is what that says in English:

Quote
CORONAVIRUS COVID 19

IT'S NOT AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

There is no need of cancelling massive events, working nor educational activities

There is also no need of panic buying.

Follow your normal activities but strengthen your prevention measures.

REMEMBER: The illness caused by the coronavirus COVID-19 is no big deal.

IF YOU TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF, WE'RE ALL TAKEN CARE OF!

Over the weekend they had a standing concert (Vive Latino) in Mexico City with 70 thousand attendance.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 16, 2020, 06:14:41 PM
Meanwhile: "'Do not call 911 just because you ran out of toilet paper', Oregon police say"

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/do-not-call-911-just-because-you-ran-out-of-toilet-paper-oregon-police-say
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 16, 2020, 06:17:29 PM
>Here is what that says in English:

Looks like Darwin is going to take care of our immigration issues.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 16, 2020, 06:40:57 PM
Canada closes borders to noncitizens, Americans exempt
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/canada-closes-borders-to-noncitizens-amid-pandemic
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 16, 2020, 06:53:40 PM
>70 thousand

Maybe Mexico has determined there is no way their medical system can cope and they just decided to get it over with, take their losses and go for herd immunity.   (I know nothing about Mexico's health care system.)

>Americans exempt

Decent of Canada, at least Americans can go buy life saving meds there at a sane price at Canadian pharmacies.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 16, 2020, 07:34:18 PM
San Francisco orders residents to stay inside, except for essential needs
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/san-francisco-orders-residents-to-stay-inside-except-for-essential-needs.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 16, 2020, 08:34:06 PM
That's the whole SF Bay Area now 7.7 million people.  It is about time. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 16, 2020, 09:37:48 PM
 EPA spreadsheet: Amount of time the surface should remain wet with different disinfectants

List N: Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 | Pesticide Registration | US EPA
https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 16, 2020, 09:52:18 PM
Today is the day the world shut down
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 16, 2020, 10:08:10 PM
Roche Begins Delivery of COVID-19 Test Kits

https://www.insideindianabusiness.com/story/41901972/roche-begins-delivery-of-covid19-test-kits

Quote
The company says the delivery of the initial 400,000 test kits will be completed this week to laboratory testing sites throughout the country with many more on the way.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 16, 2020, 10:17:44 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFoj2L2LpNA

Had a mate point me towards this.

TLTR  Zinc supplements and a malaria drug called chloroquine
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 16, 2020, 10:23:20 PM
That 400,000 will be the "a lot" that Trump was thinking of :)   He can be a bit special at times, especially when it comes to big numbers .
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 12:02:00 AM
th3core knew that already

Code: [Select]
These undocumented infections are about half as contagious as documented infections because people are not coughing and sneezing.

Yet they were found to be responsible for about two-thirds of documented infections – because they are so abundant.

People with mild symptoms can transmit a disease that creates major disease in others

Coronavirus: People without symptoms are driving disease's fast spread
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-infected-people-without-symptoms-are-driving-epidemics-fast-spread-says-new-study/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 12:19:57 AM
Transmission through eyes

Quote
Qin and colleagues dropped a solution containing the virus into two
monkeys’ eyes.
To their surprise, the researchers did not find the virus on the
surface of the monkeys’ eyes the next day. But several days later,
both animals tested positive.


Hopes for coronavirus vaccine rise after Chinese scientists find infected monkeys developed immunity | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075438/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-rise-after-chinese-scientists-find
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 17, 2020, 11:15:09 AM
Denmark Passes Law Enabling Forced Coronavirus Vaccinations

Citizens who refuse to be tested for the coronavirus will face fines and potential prison time, and will be prevented from entering shops, grocery stores, public institutions and hospitals while also being restricted from using public transport.

    “As well as enforcing quarantine measures, the law also allows the authorities to force people to be vaccinated, even though there is currently no vaccination for the virus,”

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200313/denmark-passes-far-reaching-emergency-coronavirus-law

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 17, 2020, 12:05:08 PM
Here's What's Been Flying Off Store Shelves

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/16/816404689/spiking-demand-for-sanitizer-canned-goods-leaves-stores-struggling-to-keep-up?utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr

Interesting list in that they give the percentage increase in demand.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 12:30:50 PM
Gov. Gavin Newsom escalates coronavirus effort, asks all California restaurants and theaters to close - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-16/gavin-newsom-california-restaurants-theaters-closures-coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 01:54:43 PM
WHO considers 'airborne precautions' for medical staff after study shows coronavirus can survive in air
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 02:02:01 PM
Panic buying prompts grocery stores to offer 'elderly hours' to help older shoppers - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/business/coronavirus-grocery-elder-hours-trnd/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 17, 2020, 02:02:18 PM
Testing the efficacy of homemade masks: would they protect in an influenza pandemic?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24229526
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 02:05:55 PM
Why isn’t the U.S. ready for a pandemic? For politicians, investing in prevention doesn’t pay off. - paywallWashington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/12/why-isnt-us-ready-pandemic-politicians-investing-prevention-doesnt-pay-off/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 17, 2020, 02:23:34 PM
Nobody wants to pay for something that might happen.

This might change that.

I’m hoping this will have far reaching positive impacts on humanity. Let’s face it, it’s a bit f###ed up right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 17, 2020, 02:36:10 PM
On a lighter note ... some of these made me laugh out loud:

https://www.boredpanda.com/quarantine-coronavirus-jokes/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 02:49:18 PM
North Carolina to Close all Restaurants and Bars for Dine-in Business at 5pm, today.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 17, 2020, 03:15:51 PM
A Complete List of Trump’s Attempts to Play Down Coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 17, 2020, 03:42:46 PM
Countdown to armed robbery is 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

Added
He is donating it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 03:52:33 PM
Florida bars and nightclubs in the state are suspended for 30 days, beginning at 5 p.m.  Restaurants will have to limit their occupancy to 50%
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 04:06:13 PM
From UK:

Quote
Mr Trump said of the pandemic team that “some of the people we’ve cut they haven’t been used for many, many years and if we ever need them we can get them very quickly and rather then spending the money”.

“I’m a business person, I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them,” he added.

Video emerges showing Trump talking about cutting pandemic team in 2018, despite saying last week 'I didn't know about it' | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-video-trump-pandemic-team-cut-2018-a9405191.html

=========

Majority of Americans ‘don’t trust Trump to handle crisis’ as he asks for $850bn to fix pandemic he originally called a hoax

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-us-news-live-update-trump-latest-travel-ban-primaries-a9405821.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 04:12:42 PM
So far, we're mimicking the Italian curve & stats.

New York state coronavirus cases soar to about 1,700, hospitalizing 19%
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-soar-to-more-than-1300-hospitalizing-19percent.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 04:28:35 PM
Young People Are Still Partying and It's Risking Lives - VICE
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqme3/young-people-are-still-partying-coronavirus-and-its-risking-lives
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 04:37:11 PM
NC Outer Banks resort islands close the bridges to non-residents

Entry | Dare County, NC
https://www.darenc.com/departments/emergency-management/entry
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 05:41:25 PM
TX: UPDATED: South Padre Island off-limits to large gatherings of spring breakers | KXAN.com
https://www.kxan.com/news/updated-south-padre-island-off-limits-to-large-gatherings-of-spring-breakers/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 17, 2020, 06:02:29 PM
> Italian curve & stats

The problem is we are flying blind here.  We have tested pitifully few people and even those we test have a 3 - 4 day lag until the results are known.  It's like trying to observe the whole US through a keyhole.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 06:18:31 PM
Worse than blind if you think the China stats were fudged.

2 days ago, I saw a side-by-side plotting of Italy vs US regarding cv19.  They plotted it by days since 1st case, not calendar dates.  There were very minor differences between the two.  Just yesterday, I read a report from (IIRC) the head of Italy's hospital association -he said 20% required hospitalization.  Yet another near match with what we're seeing so far.

Ominously, the Italian article was about triage --deciding who to treat, who to let die.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 06:22:49 PM
<+>
Another article about Italian triage.

Special Report: 'All is well'. In Italy, triage and lies for virus patients - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-ethics-speci/special-report-all-is-well-in-italy-triage-and-lies-for-virus-patients-idUSKBN2133KG
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
TX: Austin & Travis County; From SXSW to Zero.

Bars and restaurant dining rooms closed, gatherings of 10 or more prohibited in latest coronavirus restrictions
https://www.statesman.com/news/20200317/bars-and-restaurant-dining-rooms-closed-gatherings-of-10-or-more-prohibited-in-latest-coronavirus-restrictions
 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 07:35:45 PM
<+>
Coronavirus: Texas National Guard activated | kvue.com
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-texas-national-guard-activated/269-3c5872a6-f9f3-4186-b3b7-b519cd32735c


Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 07:41:59 PM
TX, now WI ...even our conservative states are getting with the program now.

Wisconsin to close all bars and restaurants (aside from take out and drive through) as of 5 PM tonight.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 17, 2020, 07:49:18 PM
I read of triage hierarchy for when it’s too busy.

Two us us all factors the same and the other guy has dependants, he gets first dibs. I die.

It’s not MF joke
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 07:52:25 PM
>has dependants, he gets first dibs

That's what I've read, too.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 17, 2020, 08:16:53 PM
Great info on transmissibility, lethality, and therapies from two respected and networked MDs. Detailed written notes or podcast form. They get into disease mechanism and pathology, Remdesivir, Convalescent plasma, nursing home issues, etc.

https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 08:39:47 PM
Seems we're on a roll....

Denmark bans crowds of over 10 people to curb coronaviru
s - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark/denmark-bans-public-crowds-of-more-than-10-people-pm-idUSKBN2143KG
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 08:45:05 PM
Just some old stuff from the basement...

Pentagon to give 5 million masks and 2,000 ventilators for coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/pentagon-to-give-5-million-masks-and-2000-ventilators-for-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 09:58:02 PM
"jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain's top modellers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units."

UK Imperial College: How a chilling scientific paper helped upend US and UK strategies - NZ Herald
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12317669
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 17, 2020, 10:00:47 PM
I've been dividing the total cases by total deaths for a rough mort rate for the past week and it's currently 3.4%, going by this heatmap provided by someone here : https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

5 Days ago it was 3.2%, the graph is nearing vertical, UK Is about half of that which implies environmental factors count for something.

I'm concerned, reports from pals abroad etc, it's concerning.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on March 17, 2020, 10:03:49 PM
SC going on lockdown. No soup for you (me).

https://www.wyff4.com/article/south-carolina-governor-to-give-update-on-covid-19-at-4-pm/31703298

Mandatory: Restaurant and bars close dine-in service starting Wednesday, March 18.
Mandatory: South Carolina tax deadline extended to June 1
McMaster requesting non-emergency surgery to be halted
McMaster requesting insurance pay for COVID-19 office visits, test, procedures.
McMaster requesting grocery stores limit purchases of some items, begin having special hours for senior citizens
McMaster requesting private employers to allow employees to work from home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 17, 2020, 10:05:00 PM
I i was part of the Shadowy Covenant, that had access to the Quantum Computer of Everything, i'd probably follow-the-model, respect it's constraints and just get rid of a few million what-the-fucks.

Just Culling ;+}

legal note : i'm a big softy and love everyone.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 17, 2020, 10:05:59 PM
>510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the US over the course of the outbreak.

Honestly seems optimistic at this point.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 17, 2020, 10:06:33 PM
SC going on lockdown. No soup for you (me).

https://www.wyff4.com/article/south-carolina-governor-to-give-update-on-covid-19-at-4-pm/31703298

Mandatory: Restaurant and bars close dine-in service starting Wednesday, March 18.
Mandatory: South Carolina tax deadline extended to June 1
McMaster requesting non-emergency surgery to be halted
McMaster requesting insurance pay for COVID-19 office visits, test, procedures.
McMaster requesting grocery stores limit purchases of some items, begin having special hours for senior citizens
McMaster requesting private employers to allow employees to work from home.

My pal pointed out today, "Great time to open a funeral directors.".
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 10:08:34 PM
>rough mort rate for the past week and it's currently 3.4%

SK skewed the stats, I'm thinking.

Coronavirus Death Rate Soars to 7% in Italy – Is America Next?
https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-death-rate-soars-to-7-in-italy-is-america-next/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2020, 10:17:30 PM
Bee seeing a few of these on the backchannel;

Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus a second time
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-passenger-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-a-second-time/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 17, 2020, 10:36:22 PM
Bee seeing a few of these on the backchannel;

Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus a second time
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-passenger-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-a-second-time/

Like the worst tech problems - intermittent.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 17, 2020, 11:36:01 PM
Probably already got a weakened immune system.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 18, 2020, 12:26:49 AM
There have been at least two reinfections that I know of, one in Japan, one in China.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 18, 2020, 02:26:42 AM
Newsom: 'I don't think the schools are going to open again' (https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/17/newsom-schools-likely-to-remain-closed-through-summer-1267579)

Quote
California's schools will likely stay closed for the rest of the academic year over coronavirus concerns, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday in a jaw-dropping prediction for families barely settling into new weekday routines with children at home.

"This is a very sobering thing to say," Newsom said, as he warned that schools are unlikely to reopen in the coming weeks and will more than likely remain closed until the summer break. "I don't want to mislead you."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 18, 2020, 08:32:11 AM
Vietnam, in reality, bans everybody.

http://www.mofa.gov.vn/en/tt_baochi/pbnfn/ns200317214136

"Mass quarantine at designated facilities shall be expanded to include all entrants from the US, European and ASEAN countries."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 18, 2020, 09:16:50 AM
Mexico, a failed state, has no control at all.

"Mexico has over 50 confirmed coronavirus cases. For now it has taken a less stringent approach to the virus than some of its neighbors; its borders are still open and it's not restricting foreign visitors yet. Over the weekend, a large music festival was held in Mexico City, and soccer games still had fans in attendance."

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-mexicos-president-touching-people-013400034.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 18, 2020, 11:24:54 AM
Medical company threatens to sue volunteers that 3D-printed valves for life-saving coronavirus treatments

Quote
The valve typically costs about $11,000 — the volunteers made them for about $1

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-company-threatens-sue-3d-print-valves-treatments
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 18, 2020, 11:51:58 AM
interesting:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 18, 2020, 02:15:17 PM
3 field hospitals being deployed in Florida to help with coronavirus pandemic | FOX 35 Orlando
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/3-field-hospitals-being-deployed-in-florida-to-help-with-coronavirus-pandemic.amp
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 18, 2020, 02:27:26 PM
Urban infrastructure problem #1; Sewers.

Coronavirus: Water firms issue blockage warning as people use toilet paper 'alternatives' | UK News | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-water-firms-issue-blockage-warning-as-people-use-toilet-paper-alternatives-11959659
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: I, Brian on March 18, 2020, 02:55:03 PM
UK mortality rates looks more like 0.1 percent, and even then it's mainly retirees with chronic heart/lung problems who have died:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51924405

Quote
The government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance told the health select committee that a death rate of one fatality for every 1,000 cases was a "reasonable ballpark" figure, based on scientific modelling.

The government is primarily testing people who are in hospital so many people who have mild symptoms may never be diagnosed with the virus.

A huge pointer to make about the infection stats is that only the most serious cases are being recorded - the wider majority of mild cases aren't getting recorded at all.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 18, 2020, 03:34:30 PM
Calif Gov Newsom mentions the "M" word;

California preparing for worst case scenarios; martial law a possibility
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/california-preparing-for-worst-case-scenarios-martial-law-a-possibility
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 18, 2020, 04:03:26 PM
Chart: Industries most hit by coronavirus crisis, according to Moody's - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recession-industries-hit-chart-2020-3
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Adam C on March 18, 2020, 05:57:17 PM
UK schools to shut indefinitely from Friday. No exams this summer.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 18, 2020, 06:03:44 PM
Quote
UK schools to shut indefinitely from Friday. No exams this summer.

Alice Cooper :) brilliant song!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Oo8QzDHimQ

Well we got no choice
All the girls and boys
Makin' all that noise
'Cause they found new toys
Well we can't salute ya can't find a flag
If that don't suit ya that's a drag
School's out for summer
School's out forever
School's been blown to pieces
No more pencils no more books
No more teacher's dirty looks yeah
Well we got no class
And we got no principals
And we got no innocence
We can't even think of a word that rhymes
School's out for summer
School's out forever
My school's been blown to pieces
No more pencils no more books
No more teacher's dirty looks
Out for summer
Out till fall
We might not come back at all
School's out forever
School's out for summer
School's out with fever
School's out completely
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 18, 2020, 06:23:48 PM
I have two college kids, one in high school and one in elementary.  All are continuing school remotely.  The oldest is a bit bummed out because labs are canceled.  The other college kid is still attempting to do her elective singing classes remotely (but they are having a hard time with the conferencing app).  The high school kid is just getting assignments online and posting them through the existing HS online dashboard.  She even has P.E assignments and she was doing a bunch of calisthenics yesterday.   The youngest is in second grade and we went to pick up a giant packet of work yesterday.  We are to communicate with her teacher once a week about how things are going.

I'm personally thankful for the work load, these kids would be going batty without it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 18, 2020, 06:34:08 PM
Detailed UK case map : https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

According to the figures the mort rate is 4.1% now, i'm downloading the data to graph the mort over time, everything about this is accelerating.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 18, 2020, 07:47:33 PM
Chart: Industries most hit by coronavirus crisis, according to Moody's - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recession-industries-hit-chart-2020-3

Imagine you were selling a home interior product that required a visit to measure.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 18, 2020, 08:10:44 PM
475 die of coronavirus in one day in Italy
https://boingboing.net/2020/03/18/475-die-of-coronavirus-in-one.html

<+>
In Italy, 22% of the population is 65 or older, compared to 17% in the U.S., raising hopes for a less disastrous health care breakdown.

New analysis of coronavirus risk: Young adults are not invincible - STAT
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 18, 2020, 09:29:00 PM
Lilly, Indiana State Department of Health Partner to Accelerate COVID-19 Testing Using Lilly Research Laboratories

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-indiana-state-department-health-partner-accelerate-covid

Closer to home:  Two local hospitals have set up drive thru testing.  Got to have a doctor's orders and call ahead but this is some progress.
Title: Leaked US Gov't COVID-19 Response Plan (3/13/20)
Post by: buckworks on March 18, 2020, 10:03:29 PM
As released by the NYT:

U . S. Government COVID – 19 Response Plan (3/13/20)

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 18, 2020, 10:48:45 PM
Coronavirus surfaces in 19 elder care facilities in Florida
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/18/coronavirus-surfaces-in-19-elder-care-facilities-in-florida-1267712
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 18, 2020, 11:36:47 PM
I've lost 2 clients in 2 days due to CV, one sold disneyland Florida attraction tickets so that was understandable, since the parks are closed or closing, but the other sells toys and puzzles and wasn't clear exactly how it was affecting him.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 19, 2020, 01:02:30 AM
>> how it was affecting him

Maybe his products are manufactured in an affected country?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 01:29:59 AM
Yeah, most toys are made in China. Sorry GM, SEO client work is going to be tough right now.

Added: If you are till building affiliate sites there are probably some opportunities with the state of the world.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 19, 2020, 11:26:28 AM
>> how it was affecting him

Maybe his products are manufactured in an affected country?

That's a long list right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 19, 2020, 12:13:21 PM
Australia prepares for 50,000 to 150,000 coronavirus deaths

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australia-prepares-for-50-000-to-150-000-coronavirus-deaths-20200316-p54amn.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 01:12:14 PM
China COVID-19 study: blood type O are more resistant, type A are more susceptible to infection

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/china-covid-19-study-blood-type-o-are-more-resistant-type-a-are-more-susceptible-to-infection/ar-BB11m7SA
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 01:32:27 PM
Italian CDC (Istituto Superiore di Sanità): Most common pre-existing conditions of victims were high blood pressure (76,1%), diabetes, obesity, ischemic heart disease, lung problems, immunodepression due to cancer drugs, chronic kidney disease. 68,3% of victims had MORE than 1 pre-existing condition

Morti Coronavirus, secondo l'Iss le donne decedute sono meno della metà degli uomini
https://tg24.sky.it/salute-e-benessere/2020/03/18/coronavirus-morti-donne.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 19, 2020, 01:44:18 PM
Quote
China COVID-19 study: blood type O are more resistant, type A are more susceptible to infection

Lucky Rabbit then:

A priest, a minister, and a rabbit walk in to donate blood. The rabbit says, I think I might be a type-O.


Duck....
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 01:49:37 PM
This one has been trending.  I'm skeptical.

New study says 'high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce' spread of COVID-19 | AccuWeather
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/new-study-says-high-temperature-and-high-relative-humidity-significantly-reduce-spread-of-covid-19/703418
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on March 19, 2020, 03:27:09 PM
>>If you are till building affiliate sites there are probably some opportunities with the state of the world

Some of the online meat retailers I work with have seen some of their biggest sales days outside of Christmas in the last week. With empty grocery store shelves and people not wanting to go to the store I would assume all the online food retailers and meal delivery services are seeing a good bump.

I would guess someone with a site on how to work from home, how to set up your home office, etc. could be doing well right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on March 19, 2020, 03:28:42 PM
>>Most common pre-existing conditions of victims were high blood pressure (76,1%), diabetes, obesity, ischemic heart disease, lung problems, immunodepression due to cancer drugs, chronic kidney disease

My mom and dad each check 3 of those boxes.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 19, 2020, 05:14:31 PM
https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0xXdJg6rBIwJ21275iH4KsWr3F6c0NU2ff2bDfA89YYF0Bw_S41J1TPpU
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 05:25:53 PM
>common pre-existing conditions; high blood pressure

It's been trending for a long time now that those on blood pressure meds with ACE inhibitors seem to be hit harder by cv19.  I don't know if this is a cause or coincidental.  But there's not much you can do about it anyway.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 06:14:27 PM
Gimp, I hope Western hospitals are reading that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 06:29:36 PM
Good site for seeing global CV19 stats with lots of charts:
https://coronawiki.org/

Still like this site for US/Canada data:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
(lets people tunnel down to the local county level quickly and updates in real time)

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 07:12:00 PM
This governor of a big red state had been dragging his feet. 

Texas governor issues lockdown orders - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/19/texas-governor-coronavirus-lockdown-orders-137691
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 07:18:22 PM
>big red state

Florida and Texas are going to be very bad.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 07:21:02 PM
>Florida and Texas are going to be very bad.

FL gov just sorta-kinda shut down the beaches.  He's really a laggard.

...And it doesn't help that the state is really one big nursing home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 07:31:30 PM
<+>

>FL

Speak of the devil...

A map of smart thermometers in the US shows just how sick Americans are right now | Android Central
https://www.androidcentral.com/map-smart-thermometers-us-shows-just-how-sick-americans-are-right-now
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: grnidone on March 19, 2020, 07:54:36 PM
 On Monday, my sister went to the local grocery store to see that the parking lot was completely full, and police at the door.  The meat refrigerator was completely empty, no bread, no milk, no eggs, no pasta, no toilet paper, no water. 

My sister asked one of her friends she went to school what the deal was.  Apparently, people from larger cities are coming to small towns to buy/ hoard groceries because the shelves where they are at are empty.  They had people coming in from Junction City (2 hours away). 

Also, the local butcher sold 6,000 pounds of meat in 2 days.  (10 whole cows, if you're wondering.)

It's ridiculous.  People have absolutely lost their goddamned minds.  Fortunately, the staff at the store held stuff back, so the next day, many items were back on the shelf.  (Not toilet paper or water.)

This begs a few questions:

1.  Do people not understand that their taps will continue to work?
2.  How much toilet paper do you actually need?  It's not like the virus gives you the runs....
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 07:59:14 PM
>It's not like the virus gives you the runs....

That's actually one of the symptoms (14%).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 08:09:37 PM
> people from larger cities are coming to small towns

SHHHhh! And people from small towns are going to rural country stores.  (I just sent a friend out in the deeeeep sticks to reconnoiter and report back.  If that one has been hit, I have another ultra-remote store in my sights. They raise and butcher their own livestock and I'm a regular custormer, but it's over an hour away.)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 19, 2020, 08:35:26 PM
Free audio books suitable for kids: https://stories.audible.com/start-listen . No credit card, no password, just download and listen. Kudos to Audible for setting this up!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 19, 2020, 08:53:44 PM
Complete your quarantine in Vietnam and you get a certificate.

https://ninhbinh.org/534-nguoi-hoan-thanh-thoi-gian-cach-ly-phong-dich-covid-19-tai-ninh-binh.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 08:55:15 PM
>get a certificate

Going to counterfeiters in 3.. 2.. 1...
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 09:08:39 PM
>https://stories.audible.com/start-listen

Thanks!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2020, 09:12:32 PM
>audible

Yeah, thanks, I passed it on to my 4 daughters.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2020, 09:58:29 PM
>FL

That map is frightening.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 20, 2020, 12:18:57 AM
Trump Told Governors to Buy Own Virus Supplies, Then Outbid Them

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/trump-told-governors-to-buy-own-virus-supplies-then-outbid-them

And the cluster fu## continues.

This is why people are stocking up in a frenzy, because deep down they know they are on their own.  The cavalry ain't riding in to the rescue.  So they are doing whatever things they can think of to protect themselves and their families no matter how small or ineffectual those things might be. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 20, 2020, 01:19:30 AM
Gov. Gavin Newsom says 25 million Californians are projected to get coronavirus (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronavirus-numbers-newsom-trump-15144169.php#photo-19161274)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 01:57:03 AM
I've been thinking about this for a while now.

Wheat and chessboard problem - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 01:58:50 AM
Calif: Gov. Newsom issues statewide 'stay at home' order in effort to slow COVID-19
https://abc7news.com/6022634/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 20, 2020, 02:51:44 AM
About half the state was already there, but its still overdue.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 20, 2020, 03:52:58 AM
>> Wheat and chessboard

Our world is finite so anything that increased by repeated doubling would eventually run into limits.

It's gonna be bad but not 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 bad.  8)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 20, 2020, 04:26:48 AM
California lockdown.

40m people.

OK for groceries, pharmacy and gas.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 01:47:51 PM
Coronavirus appears to be more fatal in men than women | TheHill
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/488507-coronavirus-appears-to-be-more-fatal-in-men-than
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 05:26:29 PM
NY state goes lockdown-ish

https://gothamist.com/news/gov-cuomo-announces-stay-home-order-new-york-state-pause
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 05:40:39 PM
CDC: Simple Respiratory Mask - Volume 12, Number 6—June 2006
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/6/05-1468_article
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 05:46:12 PM
Hmmmmm...

After six days, 70% of the patients who received hydroxychloroquine were considered cured, compared with only 12.5% of the control group (ajc.com)

https://www.ajc.com/news/what-hydroxychloroquine-effective-treating-coronavirus/awkTbcGymLAECtNmhyRLsO/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 05:54:05 PM
After enacting the most extreme measures in the country, New Brunswick Canada declares the first day with NO NEW CASES in a week (twitter.com)

https://twitter.com/JocelynHeenan/status/1241055742926430209
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 20, 2020, 06:36:49 PM
Quote
One thing people don’t know about is the “toilet cloud plume”. When you flush the toilet with the lid open, you spray virus over every surface in that bathroom.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-kids-risks-can-they-infect-adults
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 07:59:58 PM
see chart

Why we’re not overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic, in one chart
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 08:21:03 PM
Governor Pritzker to order Illinois to “shelter in place”
https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/local-news/report-governor-pritzker-to-order-state-to-shelter-in-place/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 09:17:42 PM
Nevada Gov. Sisolak orders all nonessential businesses in the state to shut down
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 09:56:01 PM
Boris Johnson has ordered pubs, cafes and restaurants to close across the UK
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 10:08:07 PM
Non-essential businesses will be shut down in N.J.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2020, 10:09:48 PM
Italy coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, lifting total death toll to 4,032 - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-tally/italy-coronavirus-deaths-surge-by-627-in-a-day-lifting-total-death-toll-to-4032-idUSKBN2172VL
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 20, 2020, 10:29:03 PM
U.K.

Gov to cover 80% of employed wages.

Various other measures, like no VAT or income tax for varying amounts of time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 21, 2020, 12:52:47 AM
Yosemite National Park closed to all visitors indefinitely due to coronavirus
https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Yosemite-National-Park-closed-coronavirus-camp-15147002.php
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 21, 2020, 01:19:27 AM
Rumors from DC of US shutdown Monday.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 21, 2020, 01:31:57 AM
Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Are Growing Faster In The United States Than Any Other Country In The World
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2020/03/20/coronavirus-is-growing-faster-in-the-united-states-than-any-other-country-in-the-world/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 21, 2020, 09:18:30 AM
Every Cyprus phone got this broadcast message last night, 75 cases so far.

"Stay home and only go out for when necessary! Please protect yourselves and the people with low immune systems!"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 21, 2020, 10:09:44 AM
We should know MUCH MORE in 2 weeks.

When is it time for "RECOVERY" Thread?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 21, 2020, 11:16:46 AM
Quite a listen

https://youtu.be/tQD4B_hmdvo
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 21, 2020, 12:18:52 PM
We should know MUCH MORE in 2 weeks.

When is it time for "RECOVERY" Thread?

Here is two weeks time, if you are very lucky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU9FVqwO4TM&list=WL&index=3
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 21, 2020, 12:21:22 PM
Quote
Italy asking the world to listen and react before it's too late:

A letter from Italy,
 peace for all,
 We live in Italy - Milan,
 I'm going to share with you and explain to you, "How is life here in Milan" during these difficult days and how do I think you should learn from the mistakes and their consequences that we live here.
 We are currently in quarantine.  We don't take to the streets, the police are in constant motion and arrest anyone outside his home.
 Everything is closed!  ... business, malls, stores, all streets without movement.
 Feeling of the end of the world !!
 Italy, the country of living life, is transformed from one moment to the next as if it were a dark country of war.
 It is a fact that I never thought I would ever live!
 People are confused, sad, anxious and helpless, and often do not understand how this reality was imposed on them and when this whole nightmare will end.
 The big mistake was that at the start of the first hit people continued to lead their lives as usual and took to the streets for work, entertainment and feeling like a vacation period, so gatherings with friends and banquets abound.
 Everyone was wrong and so were you!
 I beg you, be careful, this is neither a laugh nor a joke.
 Protect your loved ones, your parents, and your grandparents!  The disease is dangerous for them.
 About 200 people die here every day, not because medicine in Milan is not good (it's one of the best in the world), but rather because there are no places for everyone!
 Doctors choose who will die!  This is only because of the silliness of the citizens at the beginning, who decided to continue their lives as usual, regardless of the new situation!
 Please, learn from the mistakes, we are a small country that could end up with a great tragedy.
 Listen well now ,,, 🙏
 Don't go out into crowded places.
 Try not to eat in public places.
  Stay longer at home during this time!
 Listen to the Ministry of Health guidelines (don't play it!).
  Talk about a meter away from each person, do not come close, do not cuddle or accept.
 Get a complementary and preventive treatment and learn from others' mistakes.
 We recommend that you take vitamin C to boost your immune system.

 Helping professionals prevent the spread of the epidemic ...

  In Italy, the entire country is isolated, meaning 60 million people in quarantine !!
 This would have been prevented if people had heard the instructions from the beginning.
 Take care of yourself and the life of the one you love ❤❤
 
 Share the message to all people Jsc
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 21, 2020, 01:47:29 PM
Kirkland WA nursing home; 35 dead

The Coronavirus’s Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-home-kirkland-life-care.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 21, 2020, 04:59:19 PM
Kirkland WA nursing home; 35 dead

The Coronavirus’s Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-home-kirkland-life-care.html

‘The nurses kept saying, “They were not like this two hours ago.”’

Chilling.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 21, 2020, 05:17:32 PM
>chilling

Coronavirus, virologist Gismondo: «Maybe there has been a mutation, too many deaths in Lombardy»

https://www.ilmessaggero.it/salute/focus/coronavirus_virus_mutato_come_news_morti_lombardia_virologa_gismondo_contagi-5124466.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 21, 2020, 05:42:56 PM
First dog diagnosed with coronavirus dies in Hong Kong, two more dogs test positive in China

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/first-dog-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-dies-in-hong-kong-two-more-dogs-test-positive-in-china.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 21, 2020, 08:07:48 PM
All the Drugs Proving Anecdotally Effective Against COVID-19, and the Companies That Make Them

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/21/all-the-drugs-proving-anecdotally-effective-agains.aspx
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 21, 2020, 08:38:46 PM

When is it time for "RECOVERY" Thread?

It really depends on how comfortable we are with death.  I was thinking this morning that there will come a time when the majority of people have been infected and selfishly want to get on with their lives after their own recovery; meanwhile the vulnerable will still be dying.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 21, 2020, 09:59:55 PM
Italian Army trucks loaded with corpses being taken to outlying crematoriums because the local one can't keep up.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 21, 2020, 11:14:04 PM
A bit long and dry, but lots of practical advise for dealing with COVID-19 in daily living.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0Ae0mjMljs
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 22, 2020, 12:37:52 AM
Is Russia running a coronavirus disinformation campaign?

https://www.dw.com/en/is-russia-running-a-coronavirus-disinformation-campaign/a-52864106
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 22, 2020, 07:17:41 AM
US Passes Spain, Iran, Germany in Total COVID-19 Cases

https://covid19news.co/us-passes-spain-iran-germany-in-covid-19-cases-today/

Confident you will be in the Gold medal slot very soon. I expect the UK to make a strong run in to the medal positions.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 22, 2020, 10:47:26 AM
Quite old News, but GOOD NEWS:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/china-positions-itself-as-a-leader-in-tackling-the-coronavirus
Quote
In the last few weeks, China has donated coronavirus testing kits to Cambodia, sent planeloads of ventilators, masks and medics to Italy and France, pledged to help the Philippines, Spain and other countries, and deployed medics to Iran and Iraq.

The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, has offered comforting words, telling the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, that “sunshine comes after the storm”, and adding that the two countries should step up cooperation and exchanges after the outbreak.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 22, 2020, 10:49:40 AM
Characteristics of COVID-19 patients dying in Italy (https://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/Characteristics-of-COVID-19-patients-dying-in-Italy)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 22, 2020, 11:20:42 AM
"...in northern Italy the orders are not to allow those over 60 access to respiratory machines."

https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 22, 2020, 01:01:37 PM
A practical way to help ... Dessy's usual product is bridesmaid gowns ... pivot to isolation gowns!

https://www.gofundme.com/f/import-kn95-and-isolation-gowns-from-asia

Many people are passing around memes to thank health care workers ... here's a way to give some real, practical help.

Spread the word, and help if you can.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 22, 2020, 01:09:11 PM
'Disaster waiting to happen': visitors flock to Skegness
Seaside town busy in spite of official guidance to stay at home to curb spread of Covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/disaster-waiting-to-happen-visitors-flock-to-skegness

7 degrees C there BTW. Think UK is looking strong for the Silver medal.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 22, 2020, 03:06:49 PM
>> "...in northern Italy the orders are not to allow those over 60 access to respiratory machines."

If one is an elderly Italian is there any point even going to the hospital?

Prepare to treat at home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 22, 2020, 04:22:18 PM
An Astronaut's Guide to Self Isolation - Chris Hadfield

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uL5sqe5Uk8
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 22, 2020, 08:21:00 PM
DOJ Wants to Suspend Certain Constitutional Rights During Coronavirus Emergency

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/doj-suspend-constitutional-rights-coronavirus-970935/

Quote
“Not only would it be a violation of [habeas corpus], but it says ‘affecting pre-arrest.’ So that means you could be arrested and never brought before a judge until they decide that the emergency or the civil disobedience is over. I find it absolutely terrifying. Especially in a time of emergency, we should be very careful about granting new powers to the government.”

No and hell no.

Right and Left seem to be opposed. Cato Institute says no as well.

Power grabs during a crisis.  Is that all Washington can think about?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 22, 2020, 09:04:09 PM
>No and hell no.

I'm with you!  Barr is a POS only a fascist could love.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 22, 2020, 09:06:17 PM
What could this possibly achieve for the public good that existing laws don't already cover?

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 22, 2020, 10:17:20 PM
What could this possibly achieve for the public good that existing laws don't already cover?

It's a good question.  They already have vast powers in an emergency.  I can only guess that they are afraid of a breakdown of public order on a large scale. Which is less likely to happen if our leaders are seen to be competently dealing with the emergency, and more likely if it looks like our leaders are incompetent, uncaring, greedy and corrupt bumblef**ks.  Maybe they looked in a mirror.

In any event the stupidity of this administration knows no bounds.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2020, 01:11:01 AM
NC textile mill ‘heeds call of nation,’ gears up to make 10 million face masks per week
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241413386.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 23, 2020, 01:58:54 AM
That's a lot of masks. 

Hospitals in Iowa put out the call for washable face masks and provided a pattern.  Now women are making them all over the state.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2020, 02:23:44 AM
patients around the world who have tested positive for COVID-19 are presenting only the symptoms of loss of smell and taste

Sudden Loss of Smell Could Indicate 'Hidden Carriers' of Coronavirus
https://www.sciencealert.com/mild-covid-19-might-cause-a-lost-of-smell-or-taste
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 23, 2020, 03:25:54 AM
I'm seeing more studies that show 60%+ are either asymptomatic or mildly-symptomatic COVID19 shedders. Any combination of sinus congestion, mildly sore throat, sniffle, occasional wet or dry cough, mild headache or fever, diarrhea, then better. Not anywhere near serious enough to go get checked out. Unfortunately they're still very contagious. Kids especially.

This could pose a long-term risk to more at-risk populations.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x

https://twitter.com/Doc_Sands/status/1241825223130746880  (interesting mild symptom case)



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2020, 03:53:16 AM
>long-term risk

I'm seeing 8 months in headlines.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 23, 2020, 09:46:05 AM
I'm seeing more studies that show 60%+ are either asymptomatic or mildly-symptomatic COVID19 shedders. Any combination of sinus congestion, mildly sore throat, sniffle, occasional wet or dry cough, mild headache or fever, diarrhea, then better. Not anywhere near serious enough to go get checked out. Unfortunately they're still very contagious. Kids especially.

This could pose a long-term risk to more at-risk populations.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x

https://twitter.com/Doc_Sands/status/1241825223130746880  (interesting mild symptom case)

Trav, I've had something very similar to that twitter post happen to me in the last several days, a cough & mild sore throat, headaches (but not the worse I've ever had), some post nasal drip, and one day where I felt something was off with my breathing -- like weight in my lungs.  Jen just had the headaches, a little cough and a mild sore throat.  The kids have been fine.  I really have no idea if we're now carriers of CV19, and there is no way that they'd give us a test.  We've been self-quarantined since before the mandatory "stay at home" order and we've been treating ourselves like we are potentially contagious the entire time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 23, 2020, 11:52:40 AM
LM, you have done the right thing, the only thing you could do.  If, by chance, you've had CV maybe this will provide some immunity.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 23, 2020, 12:17:28 PM
For the UK folks... CV near you:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 23, 2020, 01:33:50 PM
Quote
China COVID-19 study: blood type O are more resistant, type A are more susceptible to infection

Lucky Rabbit then:

A priest, a minister, and a rabbit walk in to donate blood. The rabbit says, I think I might be a type-O.


Duck....

LOL :)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 23, 2020, 03:32:16 PM
This did not age well:

https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1239551403074433025
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2020, 07:13:52 PM
Coronavirus patients lie on floor at overrun Madrid hospital
https://nypost.com/2020/03/23/coronavirus-patients-spotted-lying-on-floor-at-overrun-madrid-hospital/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2020, 08:11:35 PM
Oh, sh##!

Coronavirus Traces Lingered in Vacated Cruise Cabins for 17 Days - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/coronavirus-traces-lingered-in-vacated-cruise-cabins-for-17-days
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 23, 2020, 09:07:15 PM
>Confident you will be in the Gold medal slot very soon.

The Trump administration seems to want to ease off coronavirus prevention measures to protect the crashing economy (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-trump-considers-relaxing-quarantine-to-boost-economy-2020-3)

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2020, 10:13:35 PM
UK goes into coronavirus lockdown, Boris Johnson announces - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/uk/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-gbr-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 23, 2020, 10:14:02 PM
What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?

https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/

Good article.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 23, 2020, 10:19:50 PM
DIY Cloth Face Mask

https://www.instructables.com/id/DIY-Cloth-Face-Mask/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 23, 2020, 11:15:17 PM
I passed that one on to my wife.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 24, 2020, 01:15:16 AM
So far, the official line has been 3 days, max.

"Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces for up to 9 days. Surface disinfection with 0.1% sodium hypochlorite or 62–71% ethanol significantly reduces coronavirus infectivity on surfaces within 1 min exposure time. We expect a similar effect against the SARS-CoV-2."

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents - Journal of Hospital Infection
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 24, 2020, 02:57:46 AM
Good job with the self-quarantine, littleman. Eventually you'll be able to get antibody tests, if curious.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 24, 2020, 03:28:12 AM
worth a read

Research into the first 196 patients admitted to intensive care units showed 70% were male, with an average age of 63.

70% of patients admitted to intensive care units in the UK with coronavirus were overweight or obese

UK: Obese or overweight coronavirus patients most in need of critical care
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/23/obese-overweight-coronavirus-patients-need-critical-care/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 24, 2020, 07:50:52 AM
Quote
>Confident you will be in the Gold medal slot very soon.

The Trump administration seems to want to ease off coronavirus prevention measures to protect the crashing economy

Trying to visualise a world where The USA has it and no one else does.  Travel between the 2 will be difficult. Either way its not pretty. 

Perhaps He just thinks he is invincible as he has money.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 24, 2020, 12:38:44 PM
"The U.S. Embassy in Hanoi and the U.S. Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City advise all U.S. citizens that the Government of Vietnam has begun a massive COVID-19 testing campaign for all travelers who have arrived from outside the country since March 8, 2020. The Prime Minister has ordered provinces and cities to identify such travelers in the next 48 hours, and testing is likely to follow.

Existing Ministry of Health guidelines call for collection of nose/throat swabs for diagnosis of COVID-19. If you fall into this travel category and are asymptomatic, the U.S. Embassy advises U.S. citizens to comply with a swab test."

First good call this pandemic.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 24, 2020, 01:43:23 PM
Dr. Fauci Reports That Alcohol May Help People Survive Coronavirus Briefings

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/dr-fauci-reports-that-alcohol-may-help-people-survive-coronavirus-briefings
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 24, 2020, 05:34:34 PM
In Cyprus and want to step out the door?

No problem just fill out this form first.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/03/24/coronvirus-the-forms-you-need-if-you-want-to-go-outside/

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 24, 2020, 05:51:03 PM
India under lockdown:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-24/indias-prime-minister-decrees-21-day-lockdown-to-curb-virus

““To save India and every Indian, there will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes,” Modi said, adding that if the country failed to manage the next 21 days, it could be set back by 21 years."

21 days vs 21 years ... someone should tell Trump that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 24, 2020, 09:55:05 PM
US military

https://twitter.com/usarmy/status/1241185656094801923?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 24, 2020, 10:11:09 PM
>military

The US Army Corps of Engineers Deploys Against Coronavirus | WIRED
https://www.wired.com/story/us-army-corps-of-engineers-deploys-against-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 24, 2020, 10:12:46 PM
US military

https://twitter.com/usarmy/status/1241185656094801923?s=21

Seems logical to me.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 12:11:03 AM
FDA now allows treatment of life-threatening COVID-19 cases using blood from patients who have recovered

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/24/fda-now-allows-treatment-of-life-threatening-covid-19-cases-using-blood-from-patients-who-have-recovered/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 25, 2020, 07:49:31 AM
Social Distancing seems to work.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 25, 2020, 07:51:24 AM
Vietnam Forever.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 01:21:15 PM
Singapore: a rapid test that can tell if a person has Covid-19 in as little as five minutes.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-scientists-on-the-front-lines-of-fight-against-covid-19
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 25, 2020, 02:02:56 PM
Prince Charles tests positive:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/europe/prince-charles-coronavirus-gbr-intl/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 03:39:53 PM
Coronavirus: Iceland’s mass testing finds half of carriers show no symptoms | Al Arabiya English
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 03:59:48 PM
UK coronavirus mass home testing to be made available 'within days'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 05:35:43 PM
Guesstimated to be 70% effective, but a good start.

Fifteen minute coronavirus test developed in Belgium
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/fifteen-minute-coronavirus-test-developed-belgium/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 25, 2020, 05:56:54 PM
Thousands of inmates released as jails face coronavirus threat

https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Thousands-of-inmates-released-as-jails-face-15155940.php

"Amid fears that the coronavirus will carve a deadly path through prisons and jails, counties and states are releasing thousands of inmates - New Jersey alone began freeing hundreds of people this week - and the federal prison system is coming under intense pressure to take similar measures."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 25, 2020, 08:43:08 PM
Long article, but worth reading to get an overview of the current & future problems caused by the way the US is handling CV19.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on March 25, 2020, 09:56:16 PM
Mass Iceland testing shows 50% show no symptoms

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 10:07:43 PM
Denmark: New law to ban gatherings of more than 2 in the making. Planned to be in effect from April 4th.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-03-25-ny-hastelov-paa-vej-regeringen-goer-klar-til-at-kunne-forbyde-forsamlinger-paa
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2020, 10:54:02 PM
New Orleans emerges as next coronavirus epicenter, threatening rest of South

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/new-orleans-emerges-as-next-coronavirus-epicenter-threatening-rest-of-south/ar-BB11HRXa
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 26, 2020, 02:51:43 AM
Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rumbas on March 26, 2020, 09:11:44 AM
>Denmark: New law to ban gatherings of more than 2 in the making

Yup. Mom is meaning business. We're facing a complete lock down. However people are now beginning to question the lock down in terms of economic impact. We're suffering big time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 26, 2020, 11:33:43 AM
Good breakdown of a DIY mask with a proper AB/AV barrier solution, 50g of zinc sulphate and 50g of copper sulphate yields 1 litre of the solution, enough for quite a few masks : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuEBexkm2V0



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 26, 2020, 03:31:58 PM
California coronavirus cases are doubling much faster than expected, surge likely on the way
https://m.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-coronavirus-cases-march-numbers-surge-15158652.php
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on March 26, 2020, 04:01:40 PM
Journospeak - ".. doubling much faster."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 26, 2020, 04:50:51 PM
Some good news:

James Dyson designed a new ventilator in 10 days. He's making 15,000 for the pandemic fight

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/dyson-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 26, 2020, 05:44:30 PM
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Quote
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-
19 mortality and healthcare demand
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a
vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing –
triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in
relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers
rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in
the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and
economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced


An interesting but depressing read.  Whatever scenario you prefer its clear they agree this epidemic is going to last until at least Sept and could easily extend into 2021 as I think we all believe here.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 26, 2020, 06:47:33 PM
Milestone... over half a million confirmed cases worldwide  510,108.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 26, 2020, 07:37:19 PM
Re Rupert quote above:

I think the steps most of us are taking now is really just a better mitigation -- we are flattening the curve, not really stopping the virus.  It is still worth doing and will save many lives.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 26, 2020, 08:25:24 PM
https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

Even I found this Police drone footage shocking. Almost like they wanted to add TERMINATE to the graphics.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 26, 2020, 08:32:25 PM
From the twitter thread:
"Hi. Please explain (in terms of epidemiology) exactly what harm these people are doing, taking quiet exercise away from crowds, in small numbers? And if they're doing no harm, leave them alone?"

I was wondering the same thing.  They are not interacting with each other.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 26, 2020, 09:14:29 PM
Gold medal slot very soon.

Just happened. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/coronavirus-news.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 26, 2020, 09:35:21 PM

Just happened. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/coronavirus-news.html)

Congrats. At this rate will be over a million in 2 weeks.

 Population size going to hold the UK back from the ultimate crown, still in with a chance per head of population. Cyrus in contention, Norway the run away leaders.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 27, 2020, 04:12:25 AM
From Twitter (unverified):
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 27, 2020, 05:27:05 AM
It is getting very grim.

New York City EMS received more than 6,400 medical 911 calls on Wednesday, surpassing the record set on September 11, 2001 - WaPo (https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1243356519690719234)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 27, 2020, 08:51:18 AM
Quote
https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

Even I found this Police drone footage shocking. Almost like they wanted to add TERMINATE to the graphics.

That is an hours drive away from me, and a spot I walk and cycle.  It is 20 mins from Sheffield, with a few million people.

Its OK while there are only a few doing it, but as we saw at the weekend, Snowdon had more visitors than ever before.  I have been up Snowdon on a busy day,  its a single track walk, and so you are rubbing shoulders all the way up and all the way down. This was last may, and it was busier last weekend:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47997270

So I think the point is that no-one or everyone should be allowed to do it. There was a problem at Cannock Chase, where people are driving to cycle round a single track. Its popular.  Some mates were complaining about the police asking people not to go.

I am lucky, we walk from the door across fields.  I would hate to be in the city right now. If this goes on for a year, I am sure that we need some organised access to the countryside... or maybe the lock down will be lifted when it starts to rain again :)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 27, 2020, 12:31:30 PM
US: Doctors At Hospitals Say COVID-19 Death Numbers Are Under-reported.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 27, 2020, 01:49:55 PM
Some Recovered Coronavirus Patients In Wuhan Are Testing Positive Again

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 27, 2020, 02:02:37 PM
> under-reported

Our problem remains the same: lack of test kits and the ability to process them in a timely manner.  It's been weeks now and I keep hearing about how hundreds of thousands of new test kits are going to be shipped out by the private sector, Real Soon Now, but the reports from the front line show only a very slow increase in testing.

We can't get a handle on what we're facing until we can measure it.

It's sort of the opposite of our stupid "body counts" during the Vietnam War - every dismembered body part found (ie like a hand or a finger) counted as "a body".  It gave a completely inflated and distorted report on enemy casualties, which led to more bad decisions on our part.  This is the same only in reverse.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 27, 2020, 02:15:30 PM
Could loss of taste, smell be linked to COVID-19? 2 N.J. doctors say evidence is mounting.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/could-loss-of-taste-smell-be-linked-to-covid-19-2-nj-doctors-say-evidence-is-mounting.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 27, 2020, 09:34:54 PM
Trump, Invoking Cold War Authority, Enjoins GM To Build Ventilators

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/27/822756689/trump-invoking-cold-war-authority-enjoins-gm-to-build-ventilators?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 28, 2020, 11:47:54 AM
Without widespread testing the only real measure we have for active cases is total deaths.  OK, so here is some math.  According to sources the median time from exhibiting initial symptoms to death was 14 days.  Yesterday we had a total of 1716 dead.  If we assume a real fatality rate of 1% (including those that do not show symptoms), and an average incubation period of six days (conservative) we have:

1716/0.01 = 171,600 cases in the USA ~20 days earlier, March 7.

I'm betting those numbers end up being low...

If we want to see current infection rates we'll have to calculate them from future death rates ~20 days from now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 28, 2020, 12:10:08 PM
CDC > FLU > Estimates


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 28, 2020, 02:02:03 PM
NL: 80 percent of corona patients on IC are also overweight
https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6040891/80-procent-van-coronapatienten-op-ic-kampt-ook-met-overgewicht.html?redirect=1


Most Louisiana coronavirus victims had diabetes, other pre-existing conditions, data shows

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_26b27b0c-7089-11ea-9bfd-fb10614704c4.html


The link between Diabetes and COVID-19
https://www.medtalks.in/articles/is-coronavirus-is-deadly-for-diabetic-patient
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Adam C on March 28, 2020, 03:54:48 PM
Could loss of taste, smell be linked to COVID-19? 2 N.J. doctors say evidence is mounting.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/could-loss-of-taste-smell-be-linked-to-covid-19-2-nj-doctors-say-evidence-is-mounting.html

A doctor friend of ours is pushing this message
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 28, 2020, 08:35:09 PM
South Korea is reporting recoveries exceeding active cases today

The United States and South Korea had their first reported cases on the same day.

Here is a sort of hard to read Google translated page with the news.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ko&u=https://news.v.daum.net/v/20200328121637677&prev=search
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 28, 2020, 08:50:20 PM
A very good site for national and state by state requirements and death projections in the United States; all data assumes continued strong social distancing.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 29, 2020, 07:28:24 AM
China not doing itself any favours

Coronavirus test kits withdrawn in Spain over poor accuracy rate

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-test-kits-withdrawn-spain-poor-accuracy-rate

Added

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese mouth masks have been recalled from Dutch hospitals

"...masks are said to be of unfortunate quality. Not of FFP2 quality nor of the lesser level of safety FFP1. "Some sort of FFP0.8 at best," said this source.""

https://nos.nl/artikel/2328673-honderdduizenden-chinese-mondmaskers-teruggeroepen-uit-nederlandse-ziekenhuizen.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 29, 2020, 02:22:35 PM
Dr. David Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City shares information in a Mar. 22 Zoom call with family and friends on empowering and protecting families during the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://vimeo.com/399733860

A must watch!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 29, 2020, 05:45:16 PM
One of Vietnam's largest hospitals locked down amid virus fears
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/29/one-of-vietnam039s-largest-hospitals-locked-down-amid-virus-fears
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 29, 2020, 06:04:33 PM
One of Vietnam's largest hospitals locked down amid virus fears
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/29/one-of-vietnam039s-largest-hospitals-locked-down-amid-virus-fears

They don't play.

Attached, very rough translation: "Today running around, next year in the ground".
It is far more poetic than that though.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 29, 2020, 07:49:10 PM
VIRGINIA PASTOR DIES FROM CORONAVIRUS AFTER PREVIOUSLY SAYING 'MEDIA IS PUMPING OUT FEAR' ABOUT PANDEMIC

https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-pastor-dies-coronavirus-after-previously-saying-media-pumping-out-fear-about-pandemic-1494702
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 29, 2020, 08:10:01 PM
VIRGINIA PASTOR DIES FROM CORONAVIRUS AFTER PREVIOUSLY SAYING 'MEDIA IS PUMPING OUT FEAR' ABOUT PANDEMIC

https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-pastor-dies-coronavirus-after-previously-saying-media-pumping-out-fear-about-pandemic-1494702

Not believing in science is a good way to die right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 29, 2020, 08:16:38 PM

1716/0.01 = 171,600 cases in the USA ~20 days earlier, March 7.


Yesterday's total: 2204

2204/0.01 = 220,400 cases in the USA ~20 days earlier, March 8.

That's a growth of ~78% in a day.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 29, 2020, 11:00:03 PM
FDA gives only limited OK to Battelle’s mask-sterilizing technology

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200329/coronavirus-fda-gives-only-limited-ok-to-battellersquos-mask-sterilizing-technology

Quote
The Battelle process uses “vapor phase hydrogen peroxide” to sanitize the N95 masks, allowing them to be reused up to 20 times, the company said in a statement.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 29, 2020, 11:17:25 PM
In case you forgot to reorder vapor phase hydrogen peroxide;

Bake them in an oven at 160f for 1/2 hour

-or-

UV light (remember to flip them for exposure)

-or-

Ozone generator
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 30, 2020, 02:20:12 AM
Houston hospital first in US to try coronavirus blood transfusion therapyHouston hospital first in US to try coronavirus blood transfusion therapy

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/houston-hospital-first-in-us-to-try-coronavirus-blood-transfusion-therapy/articleshow/74872404.cms

=======

Farmers warn over food supply with harvest workers shut out

https://www.ft.com/content/e27a9395-db47-4e7b-b054-3ec6ba4cbba3

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on March 30, 2020, 06:21:12 AM
From the Church of England .... reflection for people who cannot attend a funeral.

https://www.churchofengland.org/more/media-centre/news/new-reflection-issued-people-who-cannot-attend-funeral
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 30, 2020, 10:48:44 AM
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued an emergency use authorization for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat patients hospitalized with Covid-19.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2328804-veel-patienten-op-ic-met-overgewicht-maar-ga-nu-niet-te-streng-dieten.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 30, 2020, 11:39:54 AM
China Covering Up Full Extent Of Virus, Could Be 40 Times Worse Than Reported

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-scientific-advisors-china-covering-full-extent-virus-could-be-40-times-worse
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 30, 2020, 11:59:21 AM
>40 Times Worse Than Reported

Debbie says that's too low.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 30, 2020, 12:06:51 PM
Vietnam PM asks major cities to prepare for lockdown to stop virus - CNA
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid19-vietnam-prepare-lockdown-12589496
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 30, 2020, 01:36:55 PM
German Ventilator Manufacturer "Absolutely Mission Impossible"

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-ventilator-manufacturer-absolutely-mission-impossible-a-549d1e18-8c21-45f1-846f-cf5ca254b008
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 30, 2020, 04:24:45 PM
The government will gradually reopen Denmark after Easter - if the figures allow
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/regeringen-vil-gradvist-genaabne-danmark-efter-paaske-hvis-tallene-tillader-det


=========

Austria to make basic face masks compulsory in supermarkets
- Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-to-make-basic-face-masks-compulsory-in-supermarkets-idUSKBN21H16A
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 30, 2020, 08:05:09 PM
More documentation on obesity being a factor in fatalities.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=nl&u=https://nos.nl/l/2328804&prev=search

The article urges against crash dieting to reduce risk as it may weaken the immune system.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 30, 2020, 08:40:45 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002

Coronavirus: Mercedes F1 to make breathing aid

A breathing aid that can help keep coronavirus patients out of intensive care has been created in under a week.

They can make 1000 per day they think once approved.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 31, 2020, 12:39:37 AM
Long article outlining the science of why (even homemade) masks work at slowing down the virus.

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 31, 2020, 01:17:07 AM
Vietnam to declare Covid-19 a national epidemic - VnExpress International
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-to-declare-covid-19-a-national-epidemic-4077165.html


Rice prices hit 6-year high as Thailand and Vietnam face drought
- Nikkei Asian Review
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Rice-prices-hit-6-year-high-as-Thailand-and-Vietnam-face-drought
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 31, 2020, 02:59:51 AM
Compare your community's social distancing activity to its activity prior to COVID-19 (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard)
(USA only)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on March 31, 2020, 09:42:57 AM
Sweden MFs

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-swedens-radically-different-approach-to-the-coronavirus-11585598175
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 31, 2020, 02:39:35 PM
China zeroes in on coronavirus patients with no symptoms as new infections rise - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/china-zeroes-in-on-coronavirus-patients-with-no-symptoms-as-new-infections-rise-idUSKBN21I036
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 31, 2020, 05:24:27 PM
We have mention of this upstream from CN study.  Now MIT.

Coronavirus could travel 27 feet, stay in air for hours: MIT researcher
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-could-travel-27-feet-stay-in-air-for-hours-mit-researcher/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 01, 2020, 01:38:21 AM
"Abbott’s ID NOW device, which is about the size of the toaster, and is currently used by many sites to quickly test for flu"

Abbot Says It Has a Five-Minute Coronavirus Test Ready
https://time.com/5812664/5-minute-coronavirus-test/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 01, 2020, 01:47:13 AM
University of Washington modeling predicts Covid-19

 - US expected to peak on April 15 with 2200 deaths/day at the peak
 - California expected to peak on April 26 with 100 deaths/day at the peak
 - North Dakota expected to peak on May 1

https://www.kcra.com/article/researchers-predict-california-peak-covid-19-cases/31984677

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 01, 2020, 02:32:50 AM
Yeah, I was looking at that data yesterday, the thing that stands out is the range.  Even with the "assumed continuation of strong social distancing" its quite big.  That's quite an assumption, I'm not convinced we'll do the smart thing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 01, 2020, 02:44:57 AM
I'm not convinced we'll do the smart thing.

I sent a quarantine-entertainment book to the young daughter of a friend and today got the cutest thank you note. She said all the usual thank yous and then, "Daddy says, 'For the first time in history, you can save humanity by sitting on your couch and watching TV, surfing the internet and playing video games. For God's sake, don't screw this up people.'"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 01, 2020, 11:44:13 AM
Quote
'For the first time in history, you can save humanity by sitting on your couch and watching TV, surfing the internet and playing video games. For God's sake, don't screw this up people.'

Shared widely :)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 01, 2020, 01:44:17 PM
New York prisoners offered $6 an hour to dig mass graves

https://boingboing.net/2020/04/01/new-york-prisoners-offered-6.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 01, 2020, 02:58:27 PM
And now for a, small, dose of good news:  Kroger doing the right thing

Artisan Breadshop Ramps Up Production for Kroger

https://www.insideindianabusiness.com/story/41958874/artisan-breadshop-ramps-up-production-for-kroger

Quote
“And what was really cool, what they did is started looking for local solutions in their communities, not looking to Aunt Millie’s or Wonder Bread or something like that. They were looking for local opportunities,”
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 01, 2020, 04:54:23 PM
The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml?refresh_ce-cp
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 02, 2020, 05:05:10 PM
Debbie says this fits with our analysis to date

Experts warn as many as 1 in 3 coronavirus test results may be incorrectly negative
https://theweek.com/speedreads/906407/experts-warn-many-1-3-coronavirus-test-results-may-incorrectly-negative
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 02, 2020, 05:39:51 PM
Anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine speeds up recovery of coronavirus patients: small CN study

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/antimalaria-drug-speeds-up-recovery-of-coronavirus-patients-study/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 02, 2020, 06:00:50 PM
KY: COVID-19 survivor's plasma used in treatment at Baptist Health
https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/COVID-19-survivors-plasma-used-in-treatment-at-Baptist-Health-569304491.html


This is the 2nd such US treatment. First was in Texas. Outcomes still unknown.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on April 03, 2020, 12:04:15 AM
COVID-19’s impossible choices: What is the church’s ministry to the dying?

https://www.anglicanjournal.com/covid-19s-impossible-choices-what-is-the-churchs-ministry-to-the-dying/

Once upon a time I was on the Anglican Journal's board of directors.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 03, 2020, 10:23:14 AM
European leaders warn coronavirus could lead to the breakup of their union

The cohesion of the European Union had been battered by Brexit, bruised by the political fallout from the 2015 migration surge and the 2008 financial crisis, and challenged by rising autocracy in the east that runs contrary to the professed ideals of the European project.

Now, if Europe’s leaders cannot chart a more united course, the project lies in what one of its architects described this week as “mortal danger.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/european-leaders-warn-coronavirus-could-lead-to-the-breakup-of-their-union/ar-BB125QZz
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 03, 2020, 03:34:54 PM
Jelly Bean Test

Loss of smell from coronavirus: How to test your sense
- CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/health/smell-taste-test-coronavirus-wellness/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 03, 2020, 05:20:27 PM
State governors are taking to smuggling PPE to get around the feds

https://boingboing.net/2020/04/03/state-governors-are-taking-to.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on April 04, 2020, 03:50:37 PM
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/futefm/in_northern_italy_60_volunteers_who_thought_theyd/

40 out of 60 had the antibodies
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 04, 2020, 06:13:07 PM
Quote
The Coast Guard statement said as of Saturday there are 114 cruise ships, carrying 93,000 crew members, either in or near U.S. ports and waters.

https://apnews.com/a716f25c155ca7508f3038f898d94616
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 05, 2020, 01:50:50 AM
40 out of 60 had the antibodies

If that holds true in bigger samples, that is unexpectedly good news. I believe 70% is the threshold for herd immunity. So if that were true generally, that would mean Italy is already approaching herd immunity levels. Which would be incredible.

Of course, we still don't know whether or not having antibodies confers immunity and for how long.

Update... maybe not quite as good news. This was a test for antigens, not antibodies.  So those people might still have a flare up and might still be infectious.

Anyway, the comments there are interesting - it looks like a lot of countries are doing testing at scale for IgG and IgM.  Results will tell us a lot soon
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on April 05, 2020, 08:40:48 AM
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1246544537251655680?s=19

From a DM: "I am a nurse in a hospital,  and I am FURIOUS at what is happening in our country. What is being reported is NOT what’s happening. Our large hospital is so underwhelmed with patients, we are being put on call instead of working our scheduled shifts." #coronavirus

Is this for real?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 05, 2020, 12:46:19 PM
I don't watch the White House briefings so I'm basing this on the still pics I see online.  Is it my imagination, or is Trump visibly aging during this crisis?

Trump reminds me of Mussolini.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 05, 2020, 01:02:49 PM
Also this:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1246234872663945217.html

Kinda sums up where we are at: sh## creek.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 05, 2020, 01:56:04 PM
>sh##s creek

Looking at that peak graphing site, April 25ish looks like when all hell breaks loose in the southern mid-Atlantic states
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 05, 2020, 06:00:49 PM
Kinda sums up where we are at: sh## creek.

The one thing that article misses is that Maine got 5% of the small amount they requested from the Feds and Florida got 100% of the huge amount they requested. Guess which one is an important swing state in 2020? HHS says it's all legit.

Here’s why Florida got all the emergency medical supplies it requested while other states did not
https://ctmirror.org/2020/03/20/heres-why-florida-got-all-the-emergency-medical-supplies-it-requested-while-other-states-did-not/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 05, 2020, 07:39:32 PM

>Update... maybe not quite as good news. This was a test for antigens, not antibodies.  So those people might still have a flare up and might still be infectious.

Yesterday the Italian article came out about this, apparently the 40 out of 60 was for both antigens and antibodies.  So, very tough to extract what that means for the future at large other than many people are/have been infected that don't know it.

>Is this for real?

It is a tweet of a DM from one person somewhere.  Even if it is real, it is only one account contradicting rising death totals globally.

>Trump reminds me of Mussolini.

Me too, but a bit less competent.

>sh## creek

I wouldn't be surprised if health care workers just stop showing up to work soon.

>swing state

This is sounding more like a dystopian story line every day.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 05, 2020, 07:49:26 PM
There's been talk in this thread about viral load.  Here's a young nurse, 23, who died from CV19 after a twelve hour shift without proper PPE in the UK.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/health/article/2001366930/british-youngest-nurse-succumbs-to-covid-19
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 05, 2020, 08:58:53 PM
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, said the main hot spots in the U.S. continue to be New York, Louisiana and Detroit. However, she noted that new hot spots are emerging across the country in places such as Colorado, Pennsylvania and Washington, D.C.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on April 05, 2020, 09:51:49 PM
Boris Johnson admitted to hospital.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 06, 2020, 12:12:13 AM
Seems like his case may be more serious than they are letting on.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 06, 2020, 12:16:23 AM
Or more dosing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on April 06, 2020, 03:15:59 AM
The queen's speech:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6780506/coronavirus-queen-elizabeth-address/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on April 06, 2020, 11:10:45 AM
IHME data updated today: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Interesting stats, NC & SC projected to have no shortage of beds or icu beds, and less than 500 total deaths each.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 06, 2020, 11:16:28 AM
DRAS

Rednecks must have partial immunity :-)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 06, 2020, 11:16:38 AM
>The queen's speech

That was a darn good one.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 06, 2020, 11:19:36 AM
NC's daily increase in cases has been running around 15% for the last week.  While that's not particularly good news, at least it is not as horrific as the hot spots.  As predicted early-on in this thread, it's our urban areas that are taking the bigger hit ...so far.

BUT, we have some cases in just about every one of our 100 counties.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 06, 2020, 03:36:02 PM
<+>
This article just hit the feeds

Social distancing may be working: Researchers cut projected COVID-19 death toll in NC

Coronavirus outbreak expected to peak in NC next week | Charlotte Observer
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241782606.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 06, 2020, 04:22:55 PM
Brazil coronavirus: medics fear official tally ignores ‘a mountain of deaths’

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/04/medics-in-brazil-fear-official-coronavirus-tally-ignores-a-mountain-of-deaths
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 06, 2020, 04:41:15 PM
>SA

Ecuador orders cardboard coffins for coronavirus victims in street
https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/ecuador-orders-cardboard-coffins-for-coronavirus-victims-in-street/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 06, 2020, 06:43:58 PM
How Long Your Fresh Produce Will Really Last

https://www.tasteofhome.com/article/heres-how-long-your-fresh-produce-will-really-last/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 06, 2020, 07:47:26 PM
From the UK, excuse the language, attached.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 06, 2020, 09:59:50 PM
>From the UK

I suspect we'll know more personally soon who have lost.  So far I feel very lucky to not know anybody directly.

Looks like we're running low on sedatives in the US (https://www.vox.com/2020/4/6/21209589/coronavirus-medicine-ventilators-drug-shortage-sedatives-covid-19) -- needed for use with ventilators.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 06, 2020, 10:51:57 PM
Half the U.S. Supply of Hydroxychloroquine Now Cut off After India Halts Exports (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-06/half-the-u-s-supply-of-trump-touted-virus-drug-now-cut-off)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 07, 2020, 03:29:41 PM
Plasma from coronavirus survivors found to help severely ill patients | World news | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/plasma-from-coronavirus-survivors-found-to-help-severely-ill-patients
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 07, 2020, 04:09:54 PM
Just had a text from UK Health Service. They busy by the look of it!

"The NHS is still here for you. You will get the care you need, but it is more likely to be via phone or online."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 07, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
My monthly clinic visit with the nephrologist was telehealth via the Microsoft Team app (their app choice, not mine).  The nurse & doc were clearly ill-at-ease, but they'll get the hang of it.  (All of my blood-chemistry work was already done at home and carried to labs by Fedex Express. That was how we've always done it.)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 07, 2020, 09:50:31 PM
Lebanon, Indiana-based disinfectant light manufacturer adjusting to surge in demand


https://www.ibj.com/articles/lebanon-based-disinfectant-light-manufacturer-keeping-pace-with-increased-demand
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 08, 2020, 12:39:59 AM
Been trending in my feeds

Heart Damage in COVID-19 Patients Puzzles Doctors - Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-19-patients-puzzles-doctors/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 08, 2020, 02:08:09 AM
There was a nurse last week that was in her 30s, fit, and had the virus attack her heart before she died.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 08, 2020, 06:08:39 AM
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?fbclid=IwAR2lcRb-q9_02ZSBfb_XFBvTf97U-nxp_Xt3hLDAd5PajSispjxVydNsubE

COVID in the UK
First calculations of symptomatic covid in each area across the UK
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 08, 2020, 08:04:03 AM
New Zealand got their sh## together early: New Zealand's coronavirus lockdown has resulted in only one death (https://thehill.com/policy/international/asia-pacific/491532-new-zealands-coronavirus-lockdown-has-resulted-in-only-one).  They have 4.8 million people.  Their nation-wide lockdown started early relative to spread in the country and it is a for 24 days -- twice the expected incubation cycle.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 08, 2020, 11:27:53 AM
California to spend nearly $1B for 200 million masks per month

Quote
“We decided enough is enough: let's use the power of the purchasing power of the state of California as a nation-state," he added.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/08/california-inks-nearly-1b-deal-to-buy-200-million-masks-each-month-1273702
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 08, 2020, 11:40:56 AM
California is cobbling together the initial payment with $188 million in coronavirus funding approved by state lawmakers before they left Sacramento last month, plus $307 million in funds from a state disaster account. It is not clear yet where the additional $495 million will come from.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 08, 2020, 08:08:22 PM
It is ridiculous that the utter failure to manage this at the federal level has put states in bidding wars with each other and with the feds. It's unconscionable.

In better news, if you keep an eye on
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You can see that things are generally improving in terms of ICU bed shortage and when things will peak.

Until a couple days ago, they said California would not peak until April 26. Now it is April 15. That's encouraging.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on April 08, 2020, 08:44:39 PM
Haven't seen this 3d COVID-19 USA map posted here yet (sorry if I missed it)

https://covid3d.gridics.com/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 08, 2020, 08:55:43 PM
>failure

Nikki Haley: Focus on Your Governor, Not Trump (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/nikki-haley-governor-coronavirus-trump.html/?2020-04-08T09%3A00%3A25%2000%3A00)

Unfortunately, that is the reality we are in now, a strong, early national response would have made a tremendous difference.  Half the governors are cut from the same cloth as trump, so we can't rely on them either.  DeWine of Ohio seems to be the one Republican governor who has his act together.   Here's an article that outlines the common traits of governors who have been handling COVID-19 concomitantly (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-california-washington-.html).



My county has compiled local COVID-19 data in a really digestible way.  They keep updating the page and adding features, but it is very impressive the way it stands now -- definitely worth a look.

https://www.smchealth.org/post/san-mateo-county-covid-19-data-1


Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 08, 2020, 09:33:50 PM
COVID-19 twice as contagious as previously thought – CDC study | ThinkPol
https://thinkpol.ca/2020/04/08/covid-19-twice-contagious-previously-thought/


Top science panel: Coronavirus unlikely to significantly subside with warmer weather | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homesnews/news/491809-top-science-panel-coronavirus-unlikely-to-subside-with-warmer-weather
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 08, 2020, 10:36:11 PM
>warmer weather

It didn't stop it from spreading in Australia, or Florida's spring break.



>twice as contagious

That's unfortunate, but not really a surprise from what we've seen coming out of other countries.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 09, 2020, 02:53:19 PM
Amz *almost* gets it right.

It's THREE days  ...or 17 days on a cruise ship!!


Amazon Warehouse Warned Staff Not to Touch Shipments for 24 Hours

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/an-amazon-warehouse-is-dealing-with-a-coronavirus-outbreak
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 09, 2020, 05:36:55 PM
It's THREE days  ...or 17 days on a cruise ship!!

Well... a couple things about the study that said it lasted 72 hours that the authors point out, but which is rarely repeated
1. That was under ideal lab conditions with temperature and humidity held steady (I beleive at 21-23C).
2. At the 72-hour mark, 99.9% of the virus was non-viable.

So three days is really an outer limit. Also, I believe that it was 24 hours on cardboard and other porous surfaces because they absorb moisture. It was 72 hours on plastic, stainless steel and so forth.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 09, 2020, 09:26:45 PM
Meanwhile at Walmart:

Quote
He said the retailer is seeing interesting changes in what people shop for, too.

“All the do-it-yourself types of items like hair coloring and beard trimmers are selling quite well,” he said. “Sewing machines are flying off the shelf as well because a lot of people are selling and making their own masks at their house.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/walmart-hires-100000-to-meet-surging-demand-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html?__source=twitter|main
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 10, 2020, 10:42:07 PM
And again...

South Korea Says Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Positive Again

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-04-10/south-korea-says-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 11, 2020, 07:06:49 AM
Michael Yo, back from hospital. Moving.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/B-XcSMnJE8d/?igshid=rk2uhkqwla9h
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 12, 2020, 03:42:47 PM
"I think we are seeing the dangerous vulnerability of our supply chains. Even before COVID happened, over 80% of the active ingredients for all of our pharmaceuticals are sourced in China. That’s a dangerous dependency on one country.

The same goes for personal protective equipment. Most of the world's N95 respirators — the masks that medical workers are are in dire need of right now — are manufactured In China.

COVID-19 has been a wake-up call. Some of the pharmaceuticals that we need and the N95 masks have been nationalized by China."


Texas A&M pandemic expert: Coronavirus will have 5 stages. We’re in stage 2. - HoustonChronicle.com

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/lifestyle/renew-houston/health/article/Texas-A-M-pandemic-expert-coronavirus-stages-15192147.php
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 12, 2020, 08:00:35 PM
Americans Most Likely to Be Infected: the Faithful, Jailed or Old

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/americans-most-likely-to-be-infected-the-faithful-jailed-or-old
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 13, 2020, 06:21:46 AM
Vietnam’s low-cost Covid-19 strategy (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/vietnams-low-cost-covid-19-strategy/)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 13, 2020, 06:51:25 AM
Vietnam’s low-cost Covid-19 strategy (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/vietnams-low-cost-covid-19-strategy/)

They learned a lot of lessons from the last SARS thing, hence the early closing of borders etc.

There is a high level of awareness of hygiene, fridges are relatively new. Masks have been daily wear for as long as I can remember.

The community aspect is strong with strong community leaders. Some great posters knocking about too, many pitching this as a war, Vietnamese love a good war... when attacked.

I think the key though has been contact tracing. The number I have heard is that for each infection an average of 300 people are put in quarantine. Most of the new infections seem to be people already quarantined. I don’t think that is something most other countries could or would dare to do.

Finally the culture. It is “everything is ok” or “defcon one”, nothing in between.

It would be a great shame if other nations and leaders didn’t learn from Vietnam’s success. Boris and Donald spring to mind.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on April 13, 2020, 10:35:07 AM
Not good news ... South Korea confirms 111 cases of coronavirus reinfection

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 13, 2020, 10:50:14 AM
Not good at all if confirmed.

"Earlier health authorities here have said the virus was highly likely to have been reactivated, instead of the people being reinfected"

Some viruses are good at laying low. I wonder what level of viral count they go down to before it is undetectable, that is very important. For Hep C "undetectable viral load by PCR to under 50 IU/mL" and if that is the same at 24 weeks it is considered SVR, a Sustained Virological Response aka a cure (they say 98% certain but in fairness with that particular cohort reinfections are not uncommon, nose (and arms) clean after 24 weeks is cured).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 14, 2020, 01:03:37 PM
TL;DR:  heating the samples to 92 C / 198 F for 15 minutes could render the virus completely inactive.

Coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperature, a threat to lab staff around world: paper | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3079831/coronavirus-can-survive-long-exposure-high-temperature-threat
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 14, 2020, 01:40:17 PM
Overwhelmed hospitals, equipment shortages: Coronavirus pandemic plays out as state planners expected

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/13/coronavirus-preparation-states-foresaw-shortages-ppe-equipment-triage-states/2974897001/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 15, 2020, 10:04:29 AM
Coronavirus Death Toll in Europe Likely Far Higher Than First Reported

Newly published figures show deaths linked to the new coronavirus in the U.K. have far exceeded preliminary estimates, adding to a growing body of evidence across Europe that closely watched daily death tallies don’t reveal the virus’s true toll.

WSJ
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 15, 2020, 09:13:35 PM
We flagged obesity early-on upstream.

Obesity may make a coronavirus infection worse - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-15/coronavirus-risk-higher-for-obese-people

Obesity Ups Odds for Severe COVID-19 in Younger Patients
https://consumer.healthday.com/infectious-disease-information-21/coronavirus-1008/obesity-ups-odds-for-severe-covid-19-in-younger-patients-756726.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 15, 2020, 10:47:36 PM
Coronavirus is damaging heart, kidneys, livers and intestines as well as lungs.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-symptoms-lung-kidney-heart-covid-19-us-doctors-a9466701.html?utm_source=reddit.com
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 15, 2020, 11:42:18 PM
Johns Hopkins University US COVID-19 Dashboard by County
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/409af567637846e3b5d4182fcd779bea
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 16, 2020, 01:12:32 AM
Thanks. I've been curious about county-level data.

My county still has zero reported cases and zero deaths. Last I checked, they also had done very few tests. The next counties over have 33 cases and 2 deaths, 2 cases and no deaths, 17 cases and no deaths.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 16, 2020, 01:28:14 AM
>reinfections

Livingston County NY reports 2 new COVID-19 cases, 1 reinfection  | thelcn.com

https://www.thelcn.com/news/local/livingston-county-reports-2-new-covid-19-cases-1-reinfection/article_f4255ff3-71df-572a-af8a-23785a8eeffb.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 16, 2020, 01:55:01 PM
UK: No matter how you crunch the numbers, this pandemic is only just getting started | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/number-coronavirus-pandemic
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 16, 2020, 10:00:03 PM
Higher than thought

Researchers report 21% COVID-19 co-infection rate | CIDRAP
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/researchers-report-21-covid-19-co-infection-rate
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 17, 2020, 01:23:46 AM
More than 140 recovered patients retest positive for COVID-19, South Korea says | FOX 46 Charlotte
https://www.fox46charlotte.com/news/more-than-140-recovered-patients-retest-positive-for-covid-19-south-korea-says
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 17, 2020, 06:39:19 PM
Spain: Another possible early symptom noted;

"purple lesions (very similar to those of chickenpox, measles or chilblains) which usually appear on the toes and normally heal without leaving a mark."

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/71856/new-coronavirus-symptom-discovered-and-its-not-what-youd-expect/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 17, 2020, 08:42:35 PM
I've been looking for a US map with cases per capita by county.  Found it (3rd button at the top of first map)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

It confirms what I thought I was seeing in NC news, that at least two of our rural counties have a high number of cases per capita.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 17, 2020, 09:37:36 PM
Santa Clara County has had 50 to 85 times more cases than we knew about, Stanford estimates
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 17, 2020, 11:16:30 PM
Malaria drugs fail to help coronavirus patients in controlled studies - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-17/malaria-drugs-fails-to-help-coronavirus-patients-in-controlled-studies
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 18, 2020, 01:36:10 AM
Hopefully some of the anti-viral drugs turn out to be an effective treatment.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 18, 2020, 01:53:22 PM
I am uneasy about the general direction of the trend immunity/re-infection seems to be following.

No evidence that people who have survived coronavirus have immunity, says World Health Organisation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/no-evidence-people-have-survived-coronavirus-have-immunity-says/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 18, 2020, 03:17:04 PM
'But the figure likely includes "probable" deaths related to COVID-19, which were not previously included.'

COVID-19: Nearly 4,500 Coronavirus Deaths In US In 24 Hours, Highest Spike: Report
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/covid-19-nearly-4-500-coronavirus-deaths-in-us-in-24-hours-highest-spike-report-2213210

------

Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection
| Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-model-estimates-us-deaths-down

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 18, 2020, 11:55:10 PM
Has street cred...

Coronavirus: Vaccine experts says COVID-19 may never be developed
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/no-vaccine-for-coronavirus-a-possibility/news-story/34e678ae205b50ea983cc64ab2943608

---------------

Hospitals scramble for dialysis machines amid surge in COVID-19 patients with kidney failure: report
| TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/493509-hospitals-scramble-for-dialysis-machines-amid-surge-in-covid-19-patients-with
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 19, 2020, 02:20:46 PM
<q>
How many people in the U.S. have been infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19? We don’t know.

What’s the fatality rate of COVID-19? We don’t know.

How many Americans are immune to SARS-CoV-2? We don’t know.

Is immunity likely to be enduring, or is it likely to fade out over a year, as is the case with some similar viruses? We don’t know.

Given the mutation rate of similar viruses, are we even sure an individual vaccine is likely to prove durably effective? We don’t know.
</q>

We know less about COVID than we thought — we need more data
| American Enterprise Institute
https://www.aei.org/articles/we-know-less-about-covid-than-we-thought-we-need-more-data/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 19, 2020, 02:54:23 PM
US Covid tracking project; state-by-state

https://covidtracking.com/data/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on April 20, 2020, 12:41:09 AM
"Resources for COVID-19 treatment research appear to be suboptimally and disproportionately directed, and would benefit from an organized clinical trials scaffold to rapidly test multiple repurposed compounds along a matrix of risk, disease phase, and specific pathologic presentation."

Disproportionate number of clinical trials for Hydroxychloroquin while other drug candidates aren't being tested. Very little focus on early stage treatment.
4% pre hospital admittance
60% moderate stage
36% severe stage

https://peterattiamd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-Therapeutic-Trials-Must-Encompass-More-Diverse-Interventions-and-Targets-in-Disease-Course.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3zfcWwWCxfEcZ8sqgqDME9YgAwy_xwfkN4RNAxeTjwdwbFDUCTxWVeKvg
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 20, 2020, 03:48:21 AM
American teacher compares Vietnam, US in the fight against coronavirus


"There’s a phrase that’s been going around Vietnamese social media, “ở nhà là yêu nước,” which means, to stay at home is to love your country.

If you love Mississippi and want to protect it, stay at home.

In this time, it is the ultimate display of patriotism."

https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/american-teacher-compares-vietnam-us-in-the-fight-against-coronavirus-19583.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 20, 2020, 11:49:18 AM
Eerie photographs taken Friday show a flock of vultures circling over New York

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8232533/Eerie-photos-pack-vultures-circling-New-York-City-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 20, 2020, 03:24:44 PM
UK: The Sunday Times gave a crushing report on the government's Covid-19 response - 5 unsurprised reactions
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/04/20/sunday-times-crushing-report-on-government-responses/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 20, 2020, 04:41:12 PM
White House has a Blockade of State and Hospital PPE

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/hospitals-face-a-white-house-blockade-for-coronavirus-ppe.html

This reminds me more of organized crime than the actions of a government.  It seems to me that this is theft of state-taxpayer's property if a state has prepaid for a shipment that gets seized.

And I'd like an accounting of what the Fed's are doing with all this seized PPE.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 21, 2020, 03:31:10 AM
Hanoi residents show support of the fight against corona by displaying flags.

Great picture.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 21, 2020, 01:22:27 PM
Coronavirus: England and Wales care home deaths quadruple in a week | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-deaths-in-care-homes-in-england-and-wales-more-than-quadruple-in-a-week
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 21, 2020, 02:49:13 PM
Office of National Statistics (ONS):

The daily updates on the government's website only include deaths in hospitals -- not other locations, including hospices, care homes and private residences.

UK coronavirus: Death toll in England and Wales 41% higher than government figures
- CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/uk/uk-death-toll-coronavirus-statistics-gbr-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 22, 2020, 12:29:05 PM
Uh-oh. Recurring...

Chinese doctors in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged in December, say a growing number of cases in which people recover from the virus, but continue to test positive without showing symptoms, is one of their biggest challenges as the country moves into a new phase of its containment battle.

Those patients all tested negative for the virus at some point after recovering, but then tested positive again, some up to 70 days later, the doctors said. Many have done so over 50-60 days.

Recovered, almost: China's early patients unable to shed coronavirus
- Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-patients-ins/recovered-almost-chinas-early-patients-unable-to-shed-coronavirus-idUSKCN2240HI
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on April 22, 2020, 01:20:41 PM

Escape from New York City
Many New York City residents are packing up their apartments and heading for the hills or suburbs to escape the pandemic—some permanently

WSJ
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 22, 2020, 01:59:44 PM
Worth a read

Coronavirus computer modelers revise dates for easing state shutdowns – GeekWire
https://www.geekwire.com/2020/coronavirus-computer-modelers-revise-dates-easing-state-shutdowns/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 22, 2020, 02:11:42 PM
Doctors try to untangle why they're seeing 'unprecedented' blood clotting among Covid-19 patients - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/blood-clots-coronavirus/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 22, 2020, 05:22:47 PM
Escape from New York City

We continue to receive inquiries from people who, in violation of county and state directives, want to pack up and come out to the country for a short stay. But more recently, someone asked about coming for a month and a half.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 22, 2020, 11:51:53 PM
More weight to the we didn't close down early enough stance: Autopsy: Santa Clara patient died of COVID-19 on Feb. 6 — 23 days before 1st U.S. death declared (https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Santa-Clara-county-coronavirus-February-deaths-15217371.php)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 23, 2020, 01:43:19 AM
-and-

Though we aren't very good at counting current cases, we do have fairly accurate records of total deaths in each county.  So, somebody compared Santa Clara County, CA.  Guess what?....

Santa Clara County death data shows 20% increase in March, suggesting more coronavirus victims than previously known

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/22/santa-clara-county-death-data-shows-20-increase-in-march-suggesting-more-coronavirus-victims-than-previously-known/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 23, 2020, 04:22:12 AM
Right, death seem to be the best indicator for past infection dates.



In related news: Almost Every Hospitalized Coronavirus Patient Has Another Underlying Health Issue, According to a Study of New York Patients (https://time.com/5825485/coronavirus-risk-factors/)


Specific comorbidities of hospitalized patients with available EHR data, from most common to least:
Hypertension  53.1%
Obesity (BMI ≥30)  41.7%
Diabetes  31.7%
Morbid Obesity (BMI ≥35)  19%
Coronary artery disease  10.4%
Asthma  8.4%
Congestive heart failure  6.5%
Cancer  5.6%
COPD  5%
Chronic kidney disease  4.7%
End-stage kidney disease  3.3%
Obstructive sleep apnea  2.7%
History of solid organ transplant  1%
HIV  0.8%
Cirrhosis  0.3%
Hepatitis B  0.1%
Hepatitis C  0.1%
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Damian on April 23, 2020, 10:12:23 AM
>Specific comorbidities of hospitalized patients with available EHR data, from most common to least

Note that data does not consider how much of those comorbidities would be naturally expected among the population.
I read elsewhere about 8% have asthma for example. 8.4% of asthma comorbidities is a stat that is difficult to interprete without that info.

Asthma is surprisingly uncommon among COVID-19 patients who died in New York
https://www.zmescience.com/science/asthma-covid-19-05236/
Quote
Only 5% of COVID-19 deaths in New York state were among asthmatic patients, although the condition is prevalent in about 8% of the country’s population

Asthma Is Absent Among Top Covid-19 Risk Factors, Early Data Shows
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-asthma-risk.html
Quote
Nearly eight percent of the U.S. population — close to 25 million people — has asthma

I didn't look into what extend the same goes for the other comorbidities
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 23, 2020, 12:20:43 PM
>Note that data does not consider how much of those comorbidities would be naturally expected among the population.

Right.  Note also that US CV death rates are roughly doubled for blacks and hispanics where, for mostly socio-economics reasons but also a few physiological causes, the comorbidities were already more prevalent.  So the sampling presented as 'general' population is going to be skewed.  I've not seen a list of CV comorbidities by race.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 23, 2020, 07:42:53 PM
France testing whether nicotine could prevent coronavirus

https://news.yahoo.com/france-testing-whether-nicotine-could-prevent-coronavirus-163120850.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 23, 2020, 08:20:43 PM
Potential good news: UofL believes it's made breakthrough in COVID-19 treatment, works to fast-track approval (https://www.wlky.com/article/uofl-believes-its-made-breakthrough-in-covid-19-treatment-works-to-fast-track-approval/32240538)


Quote
In the race to find a treatment, UofL says it has developed a technology believed to block SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, from infecting human cells.

They explained it this way: The technology is based on a piece of synthetic DNA, or an “aptamer,” which targets and binds with a human protein called nucleolin.

Researchers said early tests show this aptamer may stop viruses, including novel coronavirus, from “hijacking” nucleolin to replicate inside the body.

"What we found was this is a safe kind of drug. It had very few side effects and that's why we're so excited about the prospects of moving this forward as a treatment for coronavirus. We don't think there's going to be any serious side effects," Paula Bates, a University School of Medicine professor, said. Hear from Bates in the video player above.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 25, 2020, 05:49:42 AM
This a a classic my friend Graham, was sent this by his  friend Rob, who lives in Houston posted this… from a Doctor…
So I have no idea who it is.  The title was:
Anyone getting tired of staying at home and not meeting up with their friends?  Read this!

Makes it even more dubious.  I post it not as a truth, but just that it bought a tear to my eye.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on April 25, 2020, 02:09:50 PM
That is magnificent writing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on April 25, 2020, 09:27:51 PM
An important, well-written account.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 26, 2020, 02:15:54 PM
Seniors with Covid-19 show unusual symptoms, doctors say - Kaiser Health News / CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/23/health/seniors-elderly-coronavirus-symptoms-wellness-partner/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 26, 2020, 08:38:23 PM
Quote
They may sleep more than usual or stop eating. They may seem unusually apathetic or confused, losing orientation to their surroundings. They may become dizzy and fall. Sometimes, seniors stop speaking or simply collapse.

I could see how those first few symptoms could be misunderstood, they can line up perfectly with someone suffering from depression.  I am sure depression is skyrocketing in nursing homes right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 26, 2020, 09:56:54 PM
Orlando Health doctor says they have used convalescent plasma in 12 patients and are seeing great results

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-26-20-intl/h_c66e0a3829ece93f5f11225dfe2f0441
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 27, 2020, 05:08:02 AM
Quote
They may sleep more than usual or stop eating. They may seem unusually apathetic or confused, losing orientation to their surroundings. They may become dizzy and fall. Sometimes, seniors stop speaking or simply collapse.

sounds much like a urine infection to me too (disclaimer, never had med training )

lets hope that plasma works, I feel there have been many hopes already.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 27, 2020, 07:39:32 PM
Coronavirus Lingers in Air of Crowded Spaces, New Study Finds

Update on Covid-19 Aerosol Study - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/coronavirus-lingers-in-air-of-crowded-spaces-new-study-finds
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on April 28, 2020, 02:55:45 PM
Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not

Very good article on the differences in responses between Washington State and New York. And some interesting tidbits like shutting down the schools wasn't to keep the kids safe but to keep the parents at home. Seems like Washington's response overall has been very conservative and aggressive compared to most states and I assume we will continue the same path as restrictions get lifted as well.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 29, 2020, 08:22:56 PM
Some interesting developments on the health/science front:

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1)

SKorea experts downplay possible reinfections (https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/skorea-experts-downplay-possible-reinfections/1818085)

Quote
While hundreds in South Korea have tested positive again after their release from hospitals, Oh Myoung-don, who heads the country's central clinical committee on new infectious diseases, told a news conference on Wednesday there was a “high possibility” that such test results were flawed.

He said South Korea''s standard real-time PCR tests, designed to amplify the genetic materials of the virus so that even tiny quantities are detected, doesn't reliably distinguish between remains of dead virus and infectious particles. He said lab tests on animals suggest that COVID-19 patients would maintain immunity for at least a year after their infections.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on April 30, 2020, 02:41:00 PM
Masks on point!

Today is the Day of Southern Liberation for National Reunification*, public holiday. Army really on point with face masks, pic attached.

*Được sống trong thời bình, không có chiến tranh là một điều rất hạnh phúc
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 30, 2020, 02:52:31 PM
what S Korea has done in chronological order as documented by an American on the ground

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/seouls-radical-experiment-in-digital-contact-tracing

Still part way through reading this, and this part hit me between the eyes:

Quote
When a patient tests positive here, Kim’s team retraces their movements based on their oral testimony, and then combs through relevant C.C.T.V. footage in order to locate others who might have been exposed. Restaurants, where people
Quote
must take their masks off to eat, are the most common sites of exposure.
“Say there’s someone who was within two metres of the patient at a restaurant, but we don’t know who that person is, except what they look like in the C.C.T.V. footage,” Kim said.

But its OK, masks do little to protect us.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 30, 2020, 10:45:35 PM
Coronavirus: Five skin conditions linked to COVID-19 identified, study finds | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-five-skin-conditions-linked-to-covid-19-identified-study-finds-11981441
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 01, 2020, 11:54:14 AM
After aggressive mass testing, Vietnam says it contains coronavirus outbreak

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vietnam-fight-insi-idUSKBN22B34H

TLDR
Close borders early
Masks
Test, test, test (Vietnam ratio of tests to confirmed cases 791-1, US 5.8, UK 4.6)
Quarantine (normally military camps) of close contacts and arrivals from abroad. That's over 85,000 people, 314 per confirmed case.
 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 02, 2020, 11:20:34 PM
Don't we all lack vitamin D in general anyway what with working in offices rather than fields etc ?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 04, 2020, 01:52:37 AM
Vietnam starts new week with no new coronavirus infection (https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-starts-new-week-with-no-new-coronavirus-infection-4093492.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on May 05, 2020, 11:52:01 AM
https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/04/new-test-proves-coronavirus-was-europe-early-december-12653049/

Quote
He told broadcaster BFMTV that his team revisited negative tests for flu and other coronaviruses on 24 patients who had been admitted to hospital with respiratory symptoms in December and January. He said: ‘Of the 24 patients, we had one positive result for Covid-19 on 27 December when he was in hospital with us.’

Dr Cohen said his team repeated the tests several times to confirm the result.

He is now calling for other negative test samples from the same time to be reviewed, adding that he has reported the case to the regional health authorities.

I've always said COVID-19 has been around longer than they are saying, I was horrific in December with the same symptoms they are describing today.
Be interesting to see what other test results bring up.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 05, 2020, 07:41:01 PM
Austria Has 90% Drop in Coronavirus Cases After Requiring People to Wear Face Masks (https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25410/20200421/austria-90-drop-coronavirus-cases-requiring-people-wear-face-masks.htm)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 06, 2020, 07:21:09 AM
Residents in Hanoi outskirt burst with joy as 28-day COVID-19 lockdown ends


Worth a look just for the pics.

https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/residents-in-hanoi-outskirt-burst-with-joy-as-28-day-covid-19-lockdown-ends-up-photo-20053.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: creative666 on May 06, 2020, 09:39:58 AM
These guys seem to have the right idea:

Living on a Self-Sufficient Sailboat for 10 Years + FULL TOUR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk83N2u1ZmY
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 06, 2020, 11:36:46 AM
These guys seem to have the right idea:

Living on a Self-Sufficient Sailboat for 10 Years + FULL TOUR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk83N2u1ZmY

Amazing. I wonder if they still eat fish.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 06, 2020, 11:39:59 AM
"Supposed to be an 18 month trip." "Would you like to go sailing for the weekend". Nine years later!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on May 06, 2020, 12:16:33 PM
I love sailing.... harnessing the power of the wind is a magic feeling.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 06, 2020, 08:58:09 PM
While I love boating of just about any kind, I can't think of anything more torturous than being a live-aboard.  I once lived in a pier house for a couple of summers ---there's nothing like having your shoes go into a full bloom of mildew overnight.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 10, 2020, 08:52:26 AM
More on Vitamin D being negatively correlated with mortality.  (https://newsinfopark.com/health/2020-05-08/article/vitamin-d-appears-to-play-role-in-covid-19-mortality-rates-32878/nip-web-desk-team/)

Quote
After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates.

Led by Northwestern University, the research team conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States.

The researchers noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of vitamin D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected.

I was looking at mortality rates in the US and noticed that the black population has twice the mortality of the white population.  There are probably many factors, but vitamin D may be part of it.  Vitamin D levels are known to be lower (on average) in African Americans.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 11, 2020, 07:17:32 PM
More on Vitamin D being negatively correlated with mortality.  (https://newsinfopark.com/health/2020-05-08/article/vitamin-d-appears-to-play-role-in-covid-19-mortality-rates-32878/nip-web-desk-team/)

Quote
After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates.

Led by Northwestern University, the research team conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States.

The researchers noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of vitamin D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected.

I was looking at mortality rates in the US and noticed that the black population has twice the mortality of the white population.  There are probably many factors, but vitamin D may be part of it.  Vitamin D levels are known to be lower (on average) in African Americans.

Quite a bit about this from various good sources now, luckily i've been taking 2000 IUs most days just because i'm rarely in the Sun. I never knew that about African Americans, just quickly read up a little and it's most people with dark complexions apparently.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on May 12, 2020, 08:38:29 AM
Wuhan to test 11m citizens.

https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1260047724155736066?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 12, 2020, 09:15:32 AM
>luckily i've been taking 2000 IUs most days

D3, taken with a fat containing meal?

Be worth a test, lots of home testing kits about.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on May 12, 2020, 11:57:24 AM
Anti body test. Comes recommended as trusted from a friend

https://www.covid-19.medichecks.com/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 12, 2020, 05:32:54 PM
About those studies that say you should be 10m away from a runner and 20m behind a fast biker...

Why you’re unlikely to get the coronavirus from runners or cyclists
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/24/21233226/coronavirus-runners-cyclists-airborne-infectious-dose

talks to virologists and infectious disease specialists about those studies and why they are so bad.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 12, 2020, 09:28:13 PM
>dark complexions apparently

It is a trade off; risk of skin cancer vs. vitamin D uptake.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 13, 2020, 10:02:34 AM
>luckily i've been taking 2000 IUs most days

D3, taken with a fat containing meal?

Be worth a test, lots of home testing kits about.

Yes with nut butter on toast, 30-40g of nuts so 15-20g of fat on average.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 13, 2020, 03:52:23 PM
Good stuff.

I have you down as "member most likely to be Vit D deficient" ;)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 13, 2020, 07:35:37 PM
Fivethirtyeight says likely no Herd Immunity without vaccine (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 13, 2020, 08:17:44 PM
>> Vitamin D

The observational studies so far on this probably will not pass peer review. They have inspired some clinical studies that are underway that may shed some light, but not for six months or a year.

One example, the study from the Philippines merely checked Vitamin D levels of those who died against levels of those who were hospitalized but not yet dead. Many problems here
 - some of those not yet dead may have died after the assay
 - those who died probably skew older and older people have lower Vitamin D levels
 - those who died may have underlying conditions which lower D
 - those who died may have underlying conditions which previously had them confined indoors, lowering their levels of D
 - the disease itself may use up stores of D in extreme cases, such as those who die.

None of that was corrected for, which is why that study will likely not pass any sort of peer review or the conclusions will be attenuated. It is quite possible, perhaps probable, that this is a spurious correlation.

More or Less on the BBC had a nice segment on this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08czkk7

The only problem with the segment is that they pronounce "vitamin" and "respiratory" incorrectly. I wish someone would teach those BBC journalists to speak American dammit.

>>no Herd Immunity without vaccine

The good news: "herd immunity" is not really a binary. If you have, say 40% with antibodies rather than the 80% needed to bring about herd immunity, you still reduce R-naught dramatically and make it hard for an outbreak to become an epidemic and an epidemic to become a pandemic.

The bad news: what if this takes as long as finding an AIDS vaccine? I know AIDS is a much harder target, but the idea that we will have a vaccine in a year seems like magical thinking.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 14, 2020, 03:21:07 AM
1000% agree that jumping to conclusions is potentially harmful.

Having said that there are thousands of studies around Vit D, this is a good meta-analysis https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

"11 321 participants.... Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants.

Vitamin D supplementation was safe and it protected against acute respiratory tract infection overall."

US population, over 40% found to be lacking with a startling 82% in the black population https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/

>speak American

As I explained to a young colonial in a bank one time, we had dates before you had a country, same goes for words ;)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on May 14, 2020, 06:54:13 AM
Hong Kong airport testing procedure

https://twitter.com/laurelchor/status/1260784481159442434?s=21
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 14, 2020, 06:21:06 PM
Lockdown-flouting speakeasies popping up throughout Manhattan    :(

https://pagesix.com/2020/05/13/lockdown-flouting-speakeasies-popping-up-throughout-manhattan/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 14, 2020, 07:06:39 PM
reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants.

They do mention in the segment that there is prior research showing that D might be *some* help. The study from the Philippines was suggesting huge effects.

Quote
As I explained to a young colonial in a bank one time, we had dates before you had a country, same goes for words ;)

That doesn't change the fact that I did not study foreign languages in school and I only speak American.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 14, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
More on the fatality rate:

Quote
COVID-19 causes at least 10 times more deaths than typical seasonal influenza, according to the authors of an analysis published Thursday by JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using statistics from Worldometer.info to make their case, the researchers noted that the disease caused by the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, caused 15,455 deaths across the United States during the week ending April 21 and 14,478 during a week earlier.

Conversely, during a typical week during the winter season, the flu causes 350 to 1,600 Americans' deaths, based on a review of figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that cover 2015 to 2018.

The stark differences in the impact of the two viruses, however, should alert Americans to the seriousness of COVID-19 and help shape public health response to the ongoing pandemic, experts said.

COVID-19 at least 10 times deadlier than typical flu, analysis finds (https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/05/14/COVID-19-at-least-10-times-deadlier-than-typical-flu-analysis-finds/4981589467332/)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 14, 2020, 10:39:16 PM
>>10 times more deaths than typical seasonal influenza

This gets to the nub of whether or not it is worth shutting down the economy and why the "but the flu kills X" or the "but the Hong Kong flu killed 100,000 and we held Woodstock instead of shutting down" arguments are deeply flawed.

Planet Money had a really interesting episode on how we value a human life in the US.
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843

Short version: the traditional valuation was based on average lifetime earnings and set the value at $300,000 in 1982. During a dispute over chemical labelling, it came to then vice-president George H.W. Bush to decide whether the cost was worth it. He knew that lifetime earnings was a bad way to value a life. He also knew that valuing a life at infinity was not right either, because resources are limited and what we're looking at is a resource allocation problem.

Bush asked an economist to come up with a better measure. The measure they settled on was based on the pay differential between two similar jobs, one of which carried higher risk of death than the other. This would tell you how much those workers valued their lives. Of course, you can poke a million holes in this, but it's one of those "worst possible methods except for all the others situations."

Using this analysis, Bush changed the value of a life from $300,000 to $3,000,000, but more importantly, established a method for the US government that we still use today. That value is now $10,000,0000.

How this applies to pandemic

So to go back to the Hong Kong flu meme that's out there. That flu, with no lockdown whatsoever, killed 100,000 people. If we do some simple math, we set the cost of that in today's valuation at 1 trillion dollars. The cost of shutting down the economy for several months is greater than that. So we didn't shut down the economy for the Hong Kong flu and standard economic analysis tells us that was the right decision.

But with Covid, we're looking at 100,000 deaths WITH lockdown. If we look at the projected number of deaths without lockdown, that was estimated at 1-2 million deaths. Valued at $10,000,000 each, that is roughly equivalent to somewhere between half and all of the US GDP. So using traditional accounting methods, as instituted by George Bush, that means the lockdown is definitely worth it in this case.

So people are commonly saying, "We don't shut down for the flu, and that kills tens of thousands of people," or "We didn't shut down for the Hong Kong flu and it killed as many as Covid."

But that is a completely spurious analysis. The point there should be that even without a shutdown, Hong Kong Flu only killed as many as Covid *with* a shutdown.

So using the "Bush" accounting method (actually the W. Kip Viscusi accounting method) from a purely economic analysis based on market valuations of a human life, we find that it is not worth shutting down for the season flu, it was not worth shutting down for the Hong Kong flu, but it *was* worth shutting down for Covid.

I think there are other arguments. There are constitutional arguments about freedom and whether those should be subjected to economic analysis. There are issues of emotional cost among healthcare workers. I have several friends and family who are doctors and nurses in hard-hit areas and they are just at the end of their chain and there is no way our healthcare system would have averted total collapse and we might have had a long-term trend of people leaving the profession and never coming back. Many other arguments could be put forth.

So I don't say necessarily that the economic analysis definitively settles the question of whether we should shut down, for how long and how extreme it should be. But for me it completely and utterly lays to rest comparisons with the seasonal flu or the 1968/69 pandemic.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 15, 2020, 12:53:06 AM
You articulated the points well.  I am seeing so much propaganda that downplay the fatality rate for political and economic reasons.  It seems reason is losing the battle.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 15, 2020, 09:56:33 AM
Coronavirus: How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success


"The government and population are very, very used to dealing with infectious diseases and are respectful of them, probably far more so than wealthier countries. They know how to respond to these things."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 15, 2020, 10:24:13 AM
250 Million people in crisis by the end of 2020



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 15, 2020, 04:02:39 PM
Boris declares war on fat: PM ditches his 'nanny state' worries and demands action plan to tackle Britain's obesity crisis after blaming his severe bout of coronavirus on being overweight


Warning Daily Mail link https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8321793/Boris-declares-war-fat-PM-ditches-nanny-state-worries-demands-action.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 15, 2020, 08:26:50 PM
Worth exploring to get a snapshot of how countries and the US states are doing.

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
(Vietnam looking good)

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 16, 2020, 04:28:57 PM
So many sources of data showing entirely different experiences. In the UK so far it's killed twice the number that flu has, yearly on average over the last 5 years, but the inter-city variance is shocking, obviously far too many variables to mode reliably.

But that recent interview with the high-up medical guy (i forget his name) today, he had the most ridiculous range of symptoms, he had every symptom in the book over a 7-week period so it's not surprising that there is huge variance.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 16, 2020, 09:22:55 PM
Like the US, I saw that UK BAME workers were hardest hit pretty much everywhere.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 18, 2020, 01:55:48 AM
Lack of immunity means China is vulnerable to another wave of coronavirus, top adviser warns - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/16/asia/zhong-nanshan-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 18, 2020, 03:20:15 AM
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states

Not looking good in our neck of the woods LM. Meanwhile, my home state of Vermont is doing well and when I talk to my family, I get the impression people are taking it much more seriously than in CA.

California locked down early and took the coronavirus seriously. Why are its cases still rising?
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/16/21254748/california-coronavirus-cases-lockdown

Spoiler alert...

Californians are not doing a good job isolating

Quote
The California stay-at-home order still involves more face-to-face contact with other people than the lockdowns in places that successfully controlled the virus. California hasn’t adopted centralized isolation, for instance, which would let sick people avoid infecting family members, and has a large homeless population exempted from the stay-home orders.

A CDC estimate suggests about 50 percent of Californians were still leaving their homes regularly after the stay-home order. In Italy, by contrast, mobility fell 85 percent under their lockdown.



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on May 18, 2020, 05:30:56 AM
>a large homeless population exempted from the stay-home orders.

That's almost funny.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 18, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
"almost" but NOT funny

ADDED
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 18, 2020, 07:15:32 PM
>Not looking good in our neck of the woods LM.

I am seeing quarantine fatigue everywhere.  Two of my neighbors had mixed household get-togethers over the weekend. I live across the street from a local park and there were mixed groups in there having picnics, teenage boys rough housing with each other, and an old obese man pushing his walker around the various groups.  Most people are not wearing masks. 

If you look at the data (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/) more of the cases are in Southern California, but I think we're going to have a second serge all over the state.  The lockdown has been long and shallow, with lots of slop and (like the article said) inadequate testing and basically no isolation of positive cases.

We may actually get to the million dead in the US by the time this is over.



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 18, 2020, 08:02:03 PM
I am seeing quarantine fatigue everywhere.

Same. We chose a "slowly peel the band-aid back" strategy rather than a "rip it off" strategy.

Within the lodging industry, I kept trying to tell people that the harsher the lockdown and the longer it is kept strong, the less money we will make this spring and summer, but the more money we will make late summer through 2021. If you have savings for six months, you want the strongest possible lockdown for four months. But no, most of them wanted one month of lackadaisical lockdown and then back to "normal." Americans have never been good at thinking about the future in my experience. It is one of our weakest traits compared to Euros. Our superpower compared to Euros is our optimism, but that is turning into our kryptonite in this case.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 19, 2020, 10:21:56 AM
perspective
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on May 19, 2020, 11:56:40 AM
True, I wonder what the graph would show without a worldwide lockdown..

x10?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on May 19, 2020, 01:07:13 PM
The thing is, all these charts are simply calculating deaths - that we know of - from Covid-19.  And those numbers are off because of failed testing and unavailability of testing.

But none of these charts take into account long term costs of surviving Covid - 19.  There are going to be a lot of people walking around with permanent lung, kidney, liver, intestinal, damage and shortened productive life spans because of Covid19.  These people are going to need life long treatment and all that comes at a cost to both the survivors and to society as well.  We have not even begun to figure out the costs.

Covid19 is not the flu where the body count is the measure.  Covid19 leaves far to many survivors with real, lasting damage.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 19, 2020, 09:03:39 PM
True, I wonder what the graph would show without a worldwide lockdown..

That is true, but think of what that chart would look like if people worried about heart disease and diabetes the way people worried* about Covid.

*Past tense, because I think littleman is correct - social-distancing fatigue is setting in.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 20, 2020, 03:15:09 AM
Bran, those are very good points that many are overlooking.   Something like 20-30% of all infected have permanent lung damage. 


>x10?

>social-distancing fatigue

I think we're going to get a lot closer to the unmitigated numbers soon in the US.  I was listening to our governor and he basically is giving up at this point.  We had several bench marks for phase II, of which we only made one.  The state is out of money, so f### it I guess.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/18/858379677/california-loosens-counties-reopening-requirements
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 20, 2020, 04:09:11 AM
This link may have been posted earlier, but it has been updated with a lot more information at the state and county level.  It now shows growth rates by county over time and hot spots.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 20, 2020, 11:24:11 AM
OR maybe NOT
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 20, 2020, 05:56:22 PM
Coronavirus behaving differently in China's northeast clusters, expert says - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/coronavirus-behaving-differently-in-chinas-northeast-clusters-expert-says-idUSKBN22W02D
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 20, 2020, 10:03:10 PM
Hold our beer;

Coronavirus: All 50 US states move toward reopening - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52745050

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 21, 2020, 10:41:35 AM
"The longer the shutdown does on, the more people dependent on the government you create."

Heather Mac Donald
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on May 23, 2020, 12:13:57 AM
>> if people worried about heart disease and diabetes the way people worried* about Covid

One major difference: heart disease, diabetes etc. are serious but not infectious so your disease doesn't put others at risk.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 23, 2020, 12:30:00 AM
>> if people worried about heart disease and diabetes the way people worried* about Covid

One major difference: heart disease, diabetes etc. are serious but not infectious so your disease doesn't put others at risk.

They're totally infectious ;+}

"Let's go for a drink"
"Let's go for a meal"
"Let's fone a take-away"
"Let's go out for a fag"

Some other bastard always infects you with the idea!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 24, 2020, 03:24:16 AM
I wasn't trying to suggest that people not try to do their part not to spread Covid. I was suggesting that if people felt just some of that urgency with respect to some other major killers, we could save many more lives.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 24, 2020, 09:01:20 PM
>>Some other bastard always infects you with the idea!

I was talking to a friend this morning and told him that early on, I thought he was being reckless - having contractors come to his house, working with them side by side, going to the lumber yard every day, living life as if there were no pandemic. Then he was limiting contact, wearing a mask and being way more careful. I asked him what changed.

He said, "One day I was in town and I noticed that all the people who were ignoring all the rules and recommendations were the ignorant, ill-educated, ill-informed rednecks I knew. And I noticed that all the well-informed, thoughtful, well-educated people I knew were taking the threat seriously. I decided I was probably better off following the practice of the thoughtful, not the ignorant."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 26, 2020, 10:24:12 AM
Then THIS
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 26, 2020, 09:35:09 PM
>Then THIS

There is so much death promoting propaganda out there like that.  I have to wonder about the motivation for such work.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 01:02:17 AM
There is so much death promoting propaganda out there like that.

It's tribal logic. If your tribe says it's true, I must show that I am not part of your tribe by saying it's false.

Quote
My daughter lives in Nashville & wore her mask to buy groceries. Guy yells at her: ‘Liberal p###y!’ Back story: she nearly died of H1N1. She was in the ICU for a week, on a ventilator for 3 days. She CANNOT get covid. The ignorance & hatred is so painful. She’s trying to survive.

— rosanne cash (@rosannecash) May 26, 2020
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/499599-johnny-cashs-daughter-slams-ignorance-hatred-over-wearing-masks
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on May 27, 2020, 09:43:06 AM
The United States of America is OPEN again.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 27, 2020, 10:48:03 AM
Lots of extra stars there; might be a metaphor.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 05:45:25 PM
How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html

I wonder what gm66's friend would think of this - it's an attack on Neil Ferguson among other things.

But it's more general than that. The central thesis is that lockdown was unnecessary, based on the Swedish and Italian experience, and that politicians won't admit it because it would make them look bad.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 27, 2020, 05:55:43 PM
How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html

I wonder what gm66's friend would think of this - it's an attack on Neil Ferguson among other things.

But it's more general than that. The central thesis is that lockdown was unnecessary, based on the Swedish and Italian experience, and that politicians won't admit it because it would make them look bad.

I'll ask him :)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 06:24:44 PM
This is from a pre-publication (not peer-reviewed) study, but from serious scholars at Stanford medical school and University of Uppsala in Sweden.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v2  

They looked at the overall risk of Covid-19 death in many countries and a handful of states. They compared death rates for those over 65 with those under 65 and, to help people establish relative risk, they compared this to the risk of driving a car a certain number of miles per day.

They found that as of May 1, the risk of dying from Covid in California for someone under the age of 65 during the first wave was the equivalent of driving 16 miles per day

But that's California. We locked down and took all manner of extra precautions. What about Sweden where there was no lockdown? Even in Sweden the risk was equivalent to driving 92 miles per day in Sweden.

But they have half the road death rate we do per billion miles (5.3 vs 10.2). If you look at it in terms of the number of road miles you need to drive in California to run the same risk as dying of Covid in Sweden, with no lockdown, that changes things. If you make a simple conversion, you find that with no lockdown, as of May 1, the chance of dying of Covid in Sweden was the equivalent of driving 47 miles per day in California.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 27, 2020, 07:34:55 PM
We could agree that the lockdown was largely a failure, but that's not the same thing as saying it was irrational.  In the US the lockdowns were the only functioning tool the governors had. We had and still largely sill do not have proper contact tracing.  We didn't have testing established until the virus was rampant.  We also waited too long to do the lockdown. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html)

The driving analogy is for current risk, but it doesn't take into account future risk by having the virus spread. Looking at the Worldmeters (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) data it is saying that we have 1,738,019 confirmed cases and 101,519 deaths in the USA at this moment.   Now we're "back open" and the case count is going to bloom, so what's the death total going to be in June or August when we have 25 million confirmed cases?  Many states are swelling with cases (https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states#action) right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 27, 2020, 07:44:11 PM
Just want to add that there are non-lockdown precautions that could be implemented like mandatory masks and work/business hygiene requirements, but we have a president that has politicized safety precautions, almost guaranteeing that local enforcement efforts will fail now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 08:11:03 PM
I agree that the decision to lock down was rational based on available models and data. I'm not trying to take people to task for decisions made in the past. Based on available information, I agree those were the right decisions.

Meanwhile, I have some friends who are suffering significant mental health issues due to fear of Covid. I'm just hoping to show a perspective that will allow people suffering from crippling anxiety and depression as a result of Covid to have a different perspective.

The approach you suggest is the one they took in Sweden and, for a while, we thought that was going bad, but it's looking more and more like it isn't.  But as you point out, in the US we have people screaming, "Pansy liberal!" at people who choose to wear masks. I won't say it's tribalism at its worst (that would be things like the Rwandan genocide), but it's a dangerous tribal mentality and a frightening thing to see in a supposedly free society. I just can't comprehend it. Why do they even care?

In any case, I find it very useful to find a statistics-based comparison to other, more familiar risks. That has been lacking because the disease is so new.  What I have been looking for for a long time, though, is some sort of measuring tape. What we've had thus far is people yelling, "I need a board!" "How long?" "Long?" "How long is long?" "It's really long!" But we have not so far had the ability to say, "8 feet" or "twice as long as the one in your hand."

In other words, we haven't had anything that allowed us to understand the actual risk we've been facing compared to other risks that we face every day.

That said, I don't discount the risk of driving 47 miles as nothing. When I drove 44 miles five days a week to an office and back, I had enough close calls over the years that I began to think that drive was the number one risk in my life and that it would eventually kill me. That observation played into my decision to try to reduce that risk by not going into the office. I was more scared of that (rightly or wrongly) than the risks I took mountaineering because I had more close calls.

For Covid, I had my little scare back in March when I thought maybe I had it, but it's usually invisible to us, so we don't actually know when we've had a close call.  I think that aspect above all others is at the root of the crippling fear some people feel. The world and everyone in it, even the nicest, smiling person or the hammer that a friend lent you, becomes mortally dangerous. I don't think that's called for and I don't think it's healthy.

That said, you won't see me joyriding around in a bus anytime soon. You won't see me at the grocery store without a mask (in fact, since March 11, I have only been to the grocery store on April 2 and May 22). I am in no way saying people should be careless. I'm just hoping the Stanford/Uppsala article in particular, will let people sleep and get over their stomach cramps and other things I'm seeing in some friends. I have a friend with some serious PTSD and this triggers it bad and was the main person I dug this up for.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 08:29:12 PM
All that said, I was curious about deaths from Covid vs depression. There is no real way to measure this, since depression inhibits the immune system, but the most obvious way depression kills is through suicide.

It turns out that if you look at deaths per 100,000 in the US
 - suicide: 14.2 [1]
 - Covid in the US: 30.23 [2]
 - Covid in Sweden: 40.51 [2]

Not sure what to make of that. On the one hand, we are likely to see Covid kill 3-4 times as many people as suicide before 12 months are up. More than Alzheimer's which kills 37.3/100K [5] and we all know people who have died of Alzheimer's I would wager. So that's sobering.

The suicide rate in the US has gone up a lot. If you look back to 1999, the rate was 10.5 per 100K. Based on just that data, you might say the difference between lockdown (US) and no lockdown (Sweden) was the same as stopping all suicides in US for a year.

But of course that's a sort of ridiculous statement. It's hard to know why the rates differ so much country to country. Why is France, which locked down relatively early and relatively hard, higher than Sweden? Why is Belgium so much different than the Netherlands (82 vs 34)?

It could just be testing and reporting artifacts. I did think maybe it was because more of the population is rural in Sweden and therefore interacting with fewer people, but in fact that is quite the opposite. Only 12.57% of Swedes live in rural areas, while 19.5% of French do [3,4].

1. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db362.htm
2. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
3. https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html
4. https://www.statista.com/statistics/466457/france-share-of-rural-population/
5. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on May 27, 2020, 08:36:50 PM
Is it possible to split north and South France?
Quote
It could just be testing and reporting artifacts. I did think maybe it was because more of the population is rural in Sweden and therefore interacting with fewer people, but in fact that is quite the opposite. Only 12.57% of Swedes live in rural areas, while 19.5% of French do [3,4].

Perhaps the mediterranean way (Passionate, hugs and kisses) has an impact.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 08:41:53 PM
Well how about the huge difference between Netherlands and Belgium? Could there be any cultural difference that would account for that? I have to believe that's a problem in the data.

And here you go, and this is why comparisons across borders are probably worthless

Quote
Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 27, 2020, 09:40:54 PM
Meanwhile...

Lockdowns save lives. The evidence is clear around the world.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-successful-evidence-from-around-the-world-2020-4
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 27, 2020, 10:39:20 PM
How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html

I wonder what gm66's friend would think of this - it's an attack on Neil Ferguson among other things.

But it's more general than that. The central thesis is that lockdown was unnecessary, based on the Swedish and Italian experience, and that politicians won't admit it because it would make them look bad.

Duncanb's reply :

"As to the opinion blog for a sniper platoon commanded with no
knowledge of medicine or public health, please !! ...

Yinon served 10 years in the military, first serving as a Marine
Corps Scout/Sniper Platoon Commander, and then as an Army Special
Forces officer, deploying overseas multiple times throughout his
military career. Before founding CarDash, he co-founded and ran
RallyPoint, and previously worked as Director of Product Marketing at
WiTricity."
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 28, 2020, 02:35:05 AM
But that's merely an attack ad hominem. I'm more curious what he thinks of the basic idea - why isn't Sweden experiencing disaster if Covid is as bad as we feared? What is the explanation that they don't have 10X our death rate?

I think the real way to look at this is to count up all deaths and see what statistical anomalies emerge. Most European and North American countries get pretty accurate counts of annual deaths. You can't fudge that much. But you can decide not to test anyone who is already dead, for example.

I poked around and found this, which does in fact just look at total reported deaths, regardless of cause:
"Sweden’s outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors, but it’s still better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html

Finland and Norway saw no increase in deaths, but Sweden has a 27% increase.

Also, if you look at mobility numbers, Swedes voluntarily did a lot of self-isolation. I don't think you could count on Americans or Italians to do that (that data show you can't, in fact)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 28, 2020, 03:25:10 AM
Sweden is complicated to analyze.

Even without legal prohibitions, many Swedes are following social-distancing recommendations and limiting travel (https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-has-avoided-a-coronavirus-lockdown-its-economy-is-hurting-anyway-11588870062)



Quote
Olofsdotter told NPR last month that the country's capital could reach herd immunity by the end of this month. Herd immunity occurs when enough people of a population are immune to an infectious disease, either because they've been infected and recovered or they've been vaccinated against it. Some researchers have put the threshold for coronavirus herd immunity at 60%.

Unfortunately, Stockholm will not reach this milestone in May.

"No that will not happen," Tegnell said Monday in an email to NPR. "Current investigations show different numbers, but [Stockholm's immunity rate] is likely lower [than 30%]. As you might be aware, there is a problem with measuring immunity for this virus."

Sweden's Public Health Agency last week released the initial findings of an ongoing antibodies study that showed that 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed antibodies against COVID-19 by late April. Tegnell later described the study's figure as a "bit lower than we'd thought," adding that the findings represented a
snapshot of the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of Stockholm's population should have contracted the virus.
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on May 28, 2020, 11:35:02 AM
But that's merely an attack ad hominem. I'm more curious what he thinks of the basic idea - why isn't Sweden experiencing disaster if Covid is as bad as we feared? What is the explanation that they don't have 10X our death rate?

I think the real way to look at this is to count up all deaths and see what statistical anomalies emerge. Most European and North American countries get pretty accurate counts of annual deaths. You can't fudge that much. But you can decide not to test anyone who is already dead, for example.

I poked around and found this, which does in fact just look at total reported deaths, regardless of cause:
"Sweden’s outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors, but it’s still better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html

Finland and Norway saw no increase in deaths, but Sweden has a 27% increase.

Also, if you look at mobility numbers, Swedes voluntarily did a lot of self-isolation. I don't think you could count on Americans or Italians to do that (that data show you can't, in fact)

Yes it's annoying when someone attackes the messenger instead of thinking about the message, i don't know why he didn't properly answer. I'm shocked at Sweden's sudden increase, only a couple of months ago it was neck and neck with Norway.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 28, 2020, 06:29:46 PM
The root problem in terms of deciding on action and, in the cases I mentioned, for maintaining mental health, is that even in cases where we have good data, we are really bad at comparing one risk to another.

When you couple that with having bad, or at least incomplete data, it makes it basically impossible to understand how dangerous something is in terms of relative risk.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 30, 2020, 02:35:46 AM
California county first to roll back reopening orders
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/500148-california-county-first-to-roll-back-reopening
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 30, 2020, 02:55:27 AM
>>roll back

One problem we have in rural counties is that with our small populations, one small cluster of cases puts us over the limit of allowed cases. I think that's what's happening in Lassen.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on May 30, 2020, 05:49:21 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52845015

It always seemed like there would be spikes.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 01, 2020, 07:37:40 PM
Check out this data animation, Jan 1 to May 14. Covid goes from blip to #1 killer. More than estimated deaths from war, homicide or malaria.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

And I don't know what they are using for criteria. The UK claims 35K deaths last I looked, but the "surplus" deaths is 60K and you should have to adjust up since there has been a drop in flu deaths, traffic deaths and so forth due to lockdown. So the death numbers may be double what confirmed Covid deaths suggest.
Title: Former WHO and Public Health Scientist Keith Baverstock discusses COVID data
Post by: gm66 on June 02, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi4j1I_ix_c
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on June 09, 2020, 05:56:48 AM
The Miracle of patient 91


It has been six days since doctors at Cho Ray Hospital in Ho Chi Minh City gave the green light to disconnect the Briton from ECMO after having used the machine to provide him with cardiac and respiratory support outside the body for 57 days.

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200609/video-shows-oncebedridden-british-covid19-patient-sitting-up-moving-legs-during-treatment-in-vietnam/54994.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 10, 2020, 02:29:54 AM
Texas reports record number of coronavirus hospitalizations weeks after reopening

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/501776-texas-reports-record-number-of-coronavirus-hospitalizations-weeks-after
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 11, 2020, 06:49:55 PM
US may have 200,000 deaths by September

US passes 2 million confirmed cases (as states continue to relax guidelines)
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-us-passes-2-million-confirmed-cases/a-53770691

Alarming Rise in Virus Cases as States Roll Back Lockdowns
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-06-11/many-forces-behind-alarming-rise-in-virus-cases-in-21-states

Mnuchin: 'We can't shut down the economy again' - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/11/steve-mnuchin-coronavirus-economy-313228



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 11, 2020, 08:43:48 PM
I think Mnuchin and the rest aren't taking into account what the economic impact of the virus as it crushes our health care system, alters people's spending habits.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 11, 2020, 09:31:34 PM
"If we need to go back to stay-at-home [orders], we will"

N.C. Health Secretary Warns Of Surge In Cases, Possible Return Of Stay-At-Home Orders
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/11/874568684/north-carolina-health-secretary-discusses-rise-in-covid-19-cases-in-her-state
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on June 12, 2020, 02:53:44 PM
COVID-19: Straight Answers from Top Epidemiologist Who Predicted the Pandemic

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/

I thought this was some good info on what a second wave could look like in a few months.

A couple other things I liked in there:

"I categorically reject the concept of social distancing. It’s physical distancing. I hope we never social distance, ever." - Love that he made the distinction here.

He also kept talking about "time and dose" which makes being careful much more realistic. Short, distanced interactions with people are generally fine. Outdoor interaction is generally fine. Close contact for an extended period of time is where the issues arise.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 12, 2020, 03:29:54 PM
The bottom line in all this: Chances are, wherever you are in the US, things are probably going to get worse. ***Now is a great time to check on your stash of emergency supplies.*** (Sigh. Ok, ok.)

The Coronavirus Spike Is Likely to Get Worse This Summer
https://vitals.lifehacker.com/its-gonna-get-worse-1844002403

=============

Americans are pretending that the pandemic is over. It certainly is not.

...the disease is slowly starting to recede from the public’s attention. After months of dominating media coverage, COVID-19 has largely disappeared from the front pages of most national newspapers. In recent polls, the number of people who favor “reopening the economy as soon as possible” over “staying home as long as necessary” has increased. And so it is perhaps no surprise that even states where the number of new infections stands at an all-time high are pressing ahead with plans to lift many restrictions on businesses and mass gatherings.



The Coronavirus Will Win - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/virus-will-win/612946/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 12, 2020, 03:53:43 PM
>>bluezones

Thank you. That is one of the best articles on CV that I've read in a long time. Very clear-eyed, balanced, reassuring and... terrifying.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 12, 2020, 03:56:51 PM
The bottom line in all this: Chances are, wherever you are in the US, things are probably going to get worse.

As believed and accepted by some tiny percentage of the population. As we reopen in California, I see the lodging industry freaking out and telling the public health officials that it is too slow, too little, too late. The public health folks are saying, "This is the most dangerous step we've taken" (direct quote from Tuesday's call).

The pressure to pretend the worst is over is enormous.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 12, 2020, 08:35:27 PM
FL total hits 70,000

Florida reports record high 1,902 new coronavirus cases, one day after previous record
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243482076.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 12, 2020, 10:30:00 PM
>>>bluezones

Yeah, that was long, but a very rational read.

>emergency supplies

We have been replenishing our three months of supply as we've gone along.  If it gets so bad that we need more than that we'll have many other types of problems.

This is really a strange time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 12, 2020, 11:09:23 PM
>>emergency supplies

I was starting to slack off on food because Louise has the online ordering going well.  I needed that reminder.  Other supplies are ok, except Lysol.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on June 12, 2020, 11:21:56 PM
>> emergency supplies

Yup.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 13, 2020, 01:12:56 AM
"We are entering a second wave. The spike we're seeing now...there's an association, perhaps, with Memorial Day weekend."

Florida Sees Record Single-Day Rise in Coronavirus Cases, San Antonio 'Entering a Second Wave'
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-sees-record-single-day-rise-coronavirus-cases-san-antonio-entering-second-wave-1510469

==========

Reported coronavirus cases top 40,000 in North Carolina as state breaks one-day record 
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article243484921.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on June 13, 2020, 11:14:51 AM
>> emergency supplies

Most of my supplies are intact.  Once I discovered Instacart I didn't need to touch my long term supplies.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 13, 2020, 11:22:41 PM
Florida reports a record high 2,581 new coronavirus cases
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243513417.html

related:
Florida fired its coronavirus data scientist. Now she’s publishing the statistics on her own.
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/florida-fired-its-coronavirus-data-scientist-now-shes-publishing-the-statistics-on-her-own/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 14, 2020, 07:26:55 PM
Other supplies are ok, except Lysol.

Are you committed to Lysol?
 - hydrogen peroxide is easily available now
 - despite warnings of shipping delays, my supplies of Vital Oxide have been coming quickly and a neighbor has had good luck too

Both are on List N and, arguably, both are healthier than Lysol.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on June 16, 2020, 07:05:06 AM
Beijing. New cases. Restrictions incoming

https://apnews.com/772a8215aef0d656bab9efe29fe90990
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 16, 2020, 12:23:15 PM
>Beijing

Shanghai demanded some travellers from Beijing be quarantined for two weeks

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/virus-hit-beijing-tightens-outbound-travel-shanghai-demands-quarantine-idUSKBN23N03Y
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 16, 2020, 03:14:24 PM
US: "We never made it out of the first wave"

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/second-wave-covid-19-u-s-or-are-we-still-n1231087
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 18, 2020, 02:51:22 AM
Greater Phoenix Restaurants and Bars Begin COVID-19 Closings … Again

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/restaurants/phoenix-restaurants-and-bars-begin-covid-19-closings-again-11476085
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 18, 2020, 12:29:11 PM
Rural America is more vulnerable to COVID-19 than cities are, and it's starting to show
https://theconversation.com/rural-america-is-more-vulnerable-to-covid-19-than-cities-are-and-its-starting-to-show-140532
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on June 18, 2020, 01:33:23 PM
Rural America is more vulnerable to COVID-19 than cities are, and it's starting to show
https://theconversation.com/rural-america-is-more-vulnerable-to-covid-19-than-cities-are-and-its-starting-to-show-140532

Very scary. Prisons must be a bloody nightmare.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on June 19, 2020, 02:54:29 PM
Our 5 year old has been sick for the past 5 days or so with a fever, chills, aches, and a cough. She also said her heart hurt at one point which could have easily been her lungs hurting. The doctor recommended we get her tested for COVID so we took her to get tested yesterday and she came back negative. The test was a swab up the nose about half an inch. It wasn't the one where they shove it all the way to the back of the nasal cavity. Results only took 15 minutes to get.

Hopefully the testing keeps improving. By the fall (assuming there are enough tests) I could see school kids getting tested on Monday morning and if they are all clear be able to attend for the week. Or businesses do the same thing with their employees.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on June 19, 2020, 04:01:55 PM
I can't imagine how worrying that must have been, that's great you can get results back quickly. Turmeric root or powder in food or warm water is great for aches like that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 19, 2020, 06:29:21 PM
Very scary. Prisons must be a bloody nightmare.

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 20, 2020, 12:42:25 AM
Dr., I'm really happy to read that she came out negative.  How is she doing now?  Did anybody else in the family get sick?  Just FYI, Abbott's rapid test has been shown to have up to 15% false negative (https://www.mddionline.com/covid-19/abbott-defends-accuracy-its-rapid-covid-19-test).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 20, 2020, 05:15:37 AM
This is bad news:
Chinese study: Antibodies in COVID-19 patients fade quickly (https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-study-antibodies-covid-19-patients-fade-quickly)

Quote
A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.

The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. Further, 40% of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were released from isolation.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on June 20, 2020, 07:54:58 AM
37 in each test group :-)

I’m not sure that’s reliable.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on June 20, 2020, 08:27:02 AM
This is interesting I think, deaths per million pop
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 20, 2020, 05:11:38 PM
Confirmed Covid deaths is still a bad measure. It is impossible to disentangle testing prevalence from incidence.

The only number that I think gives you a picture is excess deaths. One of my favorite radio shows/podcasts, More or Less from the BBC had a nice episode on that. The rough outcome is that UK deaths are probably underreported by half. At a time when the UK health authorities were reporting 35K confirmed Covid deaths, the excess deaths in the UK was about 60K. So if you suddenly start testing everyone who is sick instead of a small sample, your death rate doubles.

Similarly, countries have different standards. Most don't test people who are already dead. Some count "suspected" cases (the reason for Belgium's high death rate). Some count it as a Covid death if someone has Covid at the time of death, regardless of other factors. So in those places, if a person gets hit by a bus and lives long enough to be tested for Covid and then dies of massive trauma, it's counted as a Covid death.

So for all those reasons, my feeling is
 - comparisons across geography are currently mostly useless because of differing criteria
 - comparisons across time are mostly useless because of changing test prevalence

The two metrics I think are useful are
 - excess deaths (all causes)
 - ICU loads (all causes)

Unfortunately, those are both harder to find. Everything else feels to me like noise.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on June 20, 2020, 05:29:49 PM
you are right of course, but find me the excess deaths by country per million pop..... I dont think it exists.  I think that graph, with you points, gives the best over view that I can see.

I just had this emailed to me, as I have signed up to this app.
https://covid19.joinzoe.com/post/covid-obesity

I am supposed to sign in every day with a health check. I don't, but if I got covid, I would tell them. They are collecting good data.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on June 20, 2020, 08:28:58 PM
Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate jumps to 1.79

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-reproducti/germanys-coronavirus-reproduction-rate-jumps-to-1-79-rki-idUSKBN23R0R4
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on June 21, 2020, 05:23:12 AM
Dr., I'm really happy to read that she came out negative.  How is she doing now?  Did anybody else in the family get sick?  Just FYI, Abbott's rapid test has been shown to have up to 15% false negative (https://www.mddionline.com/covid-19/abbott-defends-accuracy-its-rapid-covid-19-test).

She is just fine now. No more fever and nobody else has been sick fortunately.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on June 21, 2020, 05:53:45 AM
Quote
She is just fine now. No more fever and nobody else has been sick fortunately.
good news!

Is there a theme here with meat processing factories?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on June 21, 2020, 10:23:06 AM
>Is there a theme here with meat processing factories?

Looks like it.  This could be an area where we would want robots.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on June 21, 2020, 04:48:32 PM
> theme

Humid, cool, close quarters, other??
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on June 21, 2020, 05:29:40 PM
Mucus?

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 21, 2020, 09:53:36 PM
Good news Doc!

We're eating less meat these days.  It's hard to feel good about consuming factory meat when the workers keep getting sick.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on June 22, 2020, 05:57:27 AM
US in a ‘forest fire’, not a second wave: Experts’ warning as coronavirus cases spike

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-in-a-forest-fire-not-a-second-wave-experts-warn-as-coronavirus-cases-spike-20200622-p554sx.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 22, 2020, 09:33:29 AM
>forest fire


Wearing masks is ‘all we have’ to try to reduce the spread of coronavirus, former FDA commissioner says (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wearing-masks-is-all-we-have-to-try-to-reduce-the-spread-of-coronavirus-former-fda-commissioner-says-2020-06-21)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on June 22, 2020, 10:54:19 AM
>masks

I notice N95 mask supplies are not making it down to the public.  We've left the problem of masks in the US to the private sector to sort out and it isn't happening.   We need a reliable, domestic, mask manufacturing capacity for both medical people but also the public.  This includes the components used to make N95's.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on June 22, 2020, 11:02:23 AM
Another outbreak at a Chicken processor:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53131765
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on June 22, 2020, 11:14:42 AM
>masks

I notice N95 mask supplies are not making it down to the public.  We've left the problem of masks in the US to the private sector to sort out and it isn't happening.   We need a reliable, domestic, mask manufacturing capacity for both medical people but also the public.  This includes the components used to make N95's.

If you have a 3d-printing service available you can try these : https://3dprint.nih.gov/discover/n95

But read this first : https://www.infoq.com/news/2020/03/3d-n95-masks/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 22, 2020, 03:55:21 PM
Wearing masks is ‘all we have’ to try to reduce the spread of coronavirus, former FDA commissioner says

I am seeing very low compliance with the California mask order.

I know wearing masks has been deeply politicized, but most people that I see not wearing masks are making that choice because of convenience, not politics. It reminds me of in the 1970s when most older people I knew refused to wear seatbelts (my in-laws still refuse) and the main reason was that it wrinkled their clothes.

I have heard
 - it fogs my glasses (true, a reason I do not like to wear a mask)

 - it causes chest congestion (also true if you wear a mask for a couple hours or more - this is really tough on people who have to wear masks for work and was tough on me during my winter drywall project. It's awful actually).

 - "shoot, I forgot my mask," (heard the other day as someone was entering the gas station convenience store)

I wonder whether the media is overhyping the political dimension of this. Of course, at a Trump rally the political element is front and center, but it's a political rally. I'm seeing people on vacation who just want to relax and forget and be non-political... usually without a mask.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on June 22, 2020, 07:49:12 PM
>> fogs my glasses

That problem is reduced by a nose piece that adjusts well across the bridge of the nose.

>> convenience, not politics

I discovered a stylish design that makes it easy to mask up. Wear it like a fashion scarf and just slip the mask on as needed. Not medical grade protection but would definitely make a difference as a "droplet catcher".

https://www.google.com/search?rls=en&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=protective+scarf+mask&client=safari&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwibi83VlpbqAhXTTjABHT1BD9YQsAR6BAgEEAE&biw=1653&bih=924

I've started experimenting with sewing some scarf-masks in this style. It's easy to include an extra layer in the mask portion.

I have been in situations where I was the only one wearing a mask but if I want others to wear masks I'd better set the example I want to see!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on June 22, 2020, 08:08:33 PM
>>wearing masks

At the "nice" grocery store here about 50-60% of the customers seem to wear masks. At the "budget" grocery store it is closer to 10-20%. And even in those two stores based 100% on outward appearance the higher class people seem to be wearing more masks and the rougher looking demographic seems to not be wearing them. Not sure if that is due to access to masks, the price of masks, or something else like that.

I would love to see a graph of mask usage broken down by income levels.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on June 23, 2020, 10:54:29 AM
https://truthout.org/articles/dumbing-down-america-the-decline-of-education-in-the-us-as-seen-from-down-under/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on June 23, 2020, 02:37:47 PM
The prime minister said: "Our principle is to trust the British public to use their common sense ...."

Doomed!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53152416
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 24, 2020, 09:31:18 AM
The EU plans to ban US travelers indefinitely after haphazard COVID-19 response (https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/23/21300747/european-union-eu-ban-us-travel-coronavirus-reopening-borders-draft-list)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on June 25, 2020, 05:36:01 PM
How the virus won

It started small. A man near Seattle had a persistent cough. A woman in Chicago had a fever and shortness of breath.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 27, 2020, 12:00:10 PM
5 states reported their highest number of coronavirus cases in one day - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Tennessee and Utah all reported record daily cases

33 states are currently seeing the number of new cases grow from the week before.

nine other states have announced they are not moving ahead to the next phase: Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico and North Carolina.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 27, 2020, 10:37:35 PM
Quote
Estimates of exact prevalence vary, but it seems that roughly 50% of patients diagnosed with Sars-CoV-2 – the virus responsible for causing the illness Covid-19 – have experienced neurological problems.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on June 30, 2020, 06:02:19 AM
Is air conditioning helping spread COVID in the South?

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/06/air-conditioning-may-be-factor-in-covid-19-spread-in-the-south/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on June 30, 2020, 10:10:06 PM
Fauci warns U.S. could see 100,000 new coronavirus cases per day (https://www.axios.com/fauci-senate-testimony-coronavirus-9d0204a8-f8e5-4deb-a8f7-07dcbd41d11c.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: martinibuster on July 02, 2020, 12:21:46 PM
>>>>>Is air conditioning helping spread COVID in the South?

No air conditioning at swimming pools and those people in Arkansas or whatever got it.

It's all about the lack of masks. The AC could contribute to it but ultimately, it's the lack of masks. Remember those hair stylists in Missouri or wherever who had 144 clients and nobody caught the virus? They were wearing masks.

People in the BLM protesters in masks didn't generate a surge in infections.

People going to the beach and the bars without masks got infected.

The math on that is pretty simple, even I can do it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 02, 2020, 08:58:49 PM
Yeah, masks seem to work and their lack of use is part of the American tragedy.   It is not 100% on Trump though; Dr Fauci, the WHO and the CDC discouraged mask use early on too.

Re AC, I came across this the other day:
How can airborne transmission of COVID-19 indoors be minimized? (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020317876)

Apparently many HVAC systems can be regulated as to how much recycled vs fresh are they use.  I am not seeing it get much attention, but a simple requirement to have those systems pump fresh are would be a painless way to make public indoor spaces a little safer.



edit:typo
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 02, 2020, 09:40:42 PM
>Apparently many HVAC systems can be regulated as to how much recycled vs fresh are they use

Yeah, I think fresh air heat exchangers may be code for some new, tight, ultra-insulated buildings (ex: SIPS, urethane foam).  Personally, I'm not keen on it otherwise. Adds complexity and reduces efficiency.


Cuomo says malls won't open unless they install HEPA-filter systems

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Cuomo-says-malls-won-t-open-unless-they-install-15373864.php
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on July 03, 2020, 10:53:45 AM
For home AC, you can check with your local dealer.  Chances are you can add UV to the system.  I have a UV unit on the Bryant furnace in one of my homes. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on July 03, 2020, 11:36:48 AM
Dessicant AC systems are cheap and easy to make.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 03, 2020, 11:56:20 AM
New, more infectious strain of Covid-19 now dominates global cases of virus - The University of Sheffield

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/new-strain-covid-more-infectious-1.892276
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on July 03, 2020, 03:46:23 PM
>> fogs

https://www.theverge.com/21301830/face-mask-glasses-fogging-how-to-stop-clear
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 03, 2020, 07:45:11 PM
The way we live now - Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt -The Economist
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/04/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on July 05, 2020, 02:46:51 AM
Increasing need for local lockdowns

https://apple.news/AxbqXCzHUTEmEVqzoloLSxw
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 05, 2020, 12:42:03 PM
Coronavirus is airborne say 239 scientists in a letter to WHO
https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus/coronavirus-is-airborne-say-239-scientists-in-a-letter-to-who-c-1145825
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on July 05, 2020, 12:47:57 PM
'Crystal clear' drunk people will not socially distance


..."naked men, happy drunks, angry drunks, fights and more angry drunks"

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53296689
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 06, 2020, 08:10:53 PM
Researchers: COVID-19 spreads ten meters or more by breathing (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-covid-ten-meters.html)  = 32 feet

Quote
The measures that need to be taken to mitigate airborne transmission include:

    Provide sufficient and effective ventilation (supply clean outdoor air, minimize recirculating air) particularly in public buildings, workplace environments, schools, hospitals, and aged care homes.
    Supplement general ventilation with airborne infection controls such as local exhaust, high efficiency air filtration, and germicidal ultraviolet lights.
    Avoid overcrowding, particularly in public transport and public buildings.

"These are practical and can be easily implemented and many are not costly. For example, simple steps such as opening both doors and windows can dramatically increase air flow rates in many buildings. Numerous health authorities currently focus on hand-washing, maintaining social distancing, and droplet precautions. Hand-washing and social distancing are appropriate, but it is view, insufficient to provide protection from virus-carrying respiratory microdroplets released into the air by infected people."

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on July 06, 2020, 08:31:41 PM
This is all UK Gov data, but very interesting, and much will transfer to the USA I am sure. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending19june2020

This is a simplistic visualisation one of which I worked out myself from the Govt stats...

85% of deaths are over 70...
88% of deaths are over 65...

A purely observational point is that the older generation is being massively protected, and some are beginning to kick back and say they don't want it.

Meanwhile the young (under 35 and you are more likely to die in an RTA)  are also kicking off. (also imho)


Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 06, 2020, 09:42:04 PM
>>88% of deaths are over 65...

There is something I find troubling in focusing on death rates. On the one hand, it's nice to know that people my age with my health profile typically don't die. But on the other, many things that do not kill me, often make me weaker and miserable (regardless of what Nietzsche said).

So, for example, survival rates for thyroid cancer are 98%, but that doesn't mean I want to contract it. A survival rate can hide a tremendous amount of suffering
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on July 06, 2020, 10:49:09 PM
This is all very worrying, it could even lead to some kind of dystopian future where we all live in sealed habidomes.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 06, 2020, 11:03:41 PM
>focusing on death rates.

Two points:
1 It seems that poor health is the greatest predictor (on average) of who dies and who lives, not age.  The USA is a very unhealthy place overall, so our math will push younger.  In NYC the 45-64 bracket had 23.1% of all the CV19 fatalities.

2 People are still focusing way too much on dying and not dying.  Up this thread somewhere I posted a link that shows 50% of those who are diagnosed with CV19 suffer neurological damage.

Quote
Now, more than 300 studies from around the world have found a prevalence of neurological abnormalities in Covid-19 patients, including mild symptoms like headaches, loss of smell (anosmia) and tingling sensations (arcoparasthesia), up to more severe outcomes such as aphasia (inability to speak), strokes and seizures. This is in addition to recent findings that the virus, which has been largely considered to be a respiratory disease, can also wreak havoc on the kidneys, liver, heart, and just about every organ system in the body.


>dystopian future where we all live in sealed habidomes.

I hope not, I think we are likely to get a good vaccine or treatment eventually.  Also, the Americas (not including Canada) seem to surging to an eventual herd immunity (assuming that is possible).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 07, 2020, 12:55:11 AM
'Recovered' doesn't mean healthy again.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/What-they-don-t-tell-you-about-surviving-15347792.php
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on July 07, 2020, 04:54:49 PM
for some great analysis of some of the UK stats, I recommend this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd/episodes/player

the last 14 episodes have been by Tim Harford, all about corvid-19.  The last one is definitely worth a listen if you can get it in the USA.

I agree with you LM, but before you can understand the problems, you have to start big, and then start drilling down. And the data just is not there yet.  I think the problem with the dying/not dying issue, is it is so difficult to tell what is permanent and what is not.  I hear people are getting their sense of smell back, others are not.   It's still so early to tell.

Tim Harford focuses on big picture stats, and how easy they are to read wrongly. And yes, more on death....
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 07, 2020, 08:15:23 PM
corvid-19

Ravens? ;-)

>>Tim Harford

I have subscribed to More or Less for years. It's one of the best for taking a number that sounds like it might be wrong and tracing it to the source or putting it to the test. Love that show.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 07, 2020, 10:37:52 PM
Thanks for the link Rupert,  Listening now.

>>corvid

Corvids are among my favorite birds.  Tom, you get to see the Yellow-billed Magpie in your area, that's pretty special.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 08, 2020, 12:55:39 AM
Ha ha! I've really taken this sideways now. I've never seen the yellow-billed magpie. I think it's more of a Central Valley species? It's been recorded fewer than four times in Yosemite
https://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/nature/upload/yosebirdchecklist.pdf

But we have ravens, Steller's jays, Clarks nutcrackers. Corvids are so smart.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on July 08, 2020, 05:25:37 AM
As Florida coronavirus cases soar, new credit card study links infection spikes to in-person restaurant dining

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2020/07/06/as-florida-coronavirus-cases-soar-new-credit-card-study-links-infection-spikes-to-in-person-restaurant-dining
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on July 08, 2020, 07:54:38 AM
Quote
Ravens? ;-)
  hah ha... spelling  is fun :)

corona is one of my favourite beers.  Happy memories in Parma.
I believe a song was written about it. its not worth listening to.
But we were on a tall ship and we were the  "Cinq Coronitas"

That dining issue was what the Koreans found I seem to remember. They put it down to the mask coming off.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 08, 2020, 12:07:40 PM
>credit card study

Nice use of invasive data.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 08, 2020, 03:03:08 PM
>spreads by breathing

Looks like it is aerosol, not droplets. ...just as th3core surmised months ago.


Tulane researchers find that coronavirus can survive in air for hours

https://news.tulane.edu/pr/tulane-researchers-find-coronavirus-can-survive-air-hours


'Emerging evidence' of airborne transmission of coronavirus, says WHO

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/health/airborne-transmission-of-coronavirus-who/index.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 08, 2020, 03:32:31 PM
>links to restaurants

The UK Government Is Giving the Whole Country 50 Percent Off in Restaurants
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5pjn7/the-uk-government-is-giving-the-whole-country-50-percent-off-in-restaurants
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on July 08, 2020, 06:57:21 PM
>The UK Government Is Giving the Whole Country 50 Percent Off in Restaurants

It is almost amusing.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: gm66 on July 08, 2020, 07:48:57 PM
It may be airborne but what the hell, we'll pay for half of your last meal :)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on July 09, 2020, 12:05:30 PM
And, PPE shortages are hitting the US again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/08/ppe-shortage-masks-gloves-gowns/

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 09, 2020, 08:52:15 PM
Coronavirus in Australia: Melbourne begins new shutdown
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53335745
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 09, 2020, 09:59:26 PM
Hospitals overwhelmed as Johannesburg runs out of oxygen
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/hospitals-overwhelmed-johannesburg-runs-oxygen/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on July 09, 2020, 10:14:40 PM
Nice chart

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2944635/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 09, 2020, 11:20:09 PM
Puts it into perspective!  I'd like to see the same chart for the US only.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on July 10, 2020, 08:21:44 AM
Quote
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2944635/

I think there are a couple of lines missing.  Old age, and "Other". 
It tells me there is a lot of other ways to die.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 11, 2020, 09:22:43 PM
If the coronavirus is really airborne, we might be fighting it the wrong way (https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/11/1005087/coronavirus-airborne-fighting-wrong-way/)

Quote
One of the biggest questions we still have about covid-19 is how much of a viral load is needed to cause infection. The answer changes if we think it is aerosols that we need to worry about. Smaller particles won’t carry as large a viral load as bigger ones, but because they can linger in the air for much longer, it may not matter—they’ll build up in larger concentrations and get distributed more widely the longer an infected person is around to expel aerosolized virus.

The more people you have coming in and out of an indoor space, the more likely it is that someone who is infected will show up. The longer those infected individuals spend in that space, the higher the concentration of virus in the air over time. This is particularly bad news for spaces where people congregate for hours on end, like restaurants, bars, offices, classrooms, and churches.

Airborne transmission doesn’t necessarily mean these places must stay closed (although that would be ideal). But wiping down surfaces with disinfectant, and having everyone wear masks, won’t be enough. To safely reopen, these spots will not just need to reduce the number of people allowed inside at any given moment; they will also need to reduce the amount of time those people spend there. Increasing social distancing beyond six feet would also help keep people safer.

Ventilation needs to be a higher priority too. This is going to be a big problem for older buildings that usually have worse ventilation systems, and areas with a lot of those might need to remain closed for much longer. The impact of asymptomatic spread (transmission by people who don’t feel ill) and superspreaders only compounds the problem even further. But research conducted by the US Department of Homeland Security has shown that in the presence of UV light, aerosolized particles of the size the Tulane researchers studied would disappear in less than a minute. A number of businesses have begun deploying UV-armed robots to disinfect hospital rooms, shopping malls, stores, public transit stations, and more.

For many places, considerable delays in economic reopening might ultimately be the price of getting the virus under control. Otherwise the kind of thing that happened when a single open bar in Michigan led to an outbreak of more than 170 new cases could become commonplace.

For Brosseau, the best strategy is simply to behave as we did in the early days of lockdown—stay home, and avoid coming into contact with anyone you don’t live with. And if you have to leave home, she says, “all I can say is spend as little time as possible in an enclosed space, in an area that’s well ventilated, with as few people as possible.”
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Damian on July 12, 2020, 05:44:50 PM
..and/or a couple of lines overlapping.
If you die having light Diabetes and Covid in your blood just after getting high it is not sure to what line you will be added.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Damian on July 12, 2020, 06:17:37 PM
Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: A nationwide cross-sectional study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/27/2020.04.05.20054502.full.pdf

Quote
A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate.

Role of the chronic air pollution levels in the Covid-19 outbreak risk in Italy
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749120332115

Correlation is not causation but it does seem clean air is better

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on July 13, 2020, 08:18:20 AM
That pollution one is interesting.  I have not seen smokers picked out as a group likely to die, but they live in a very polluted world.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 13, 2020, 10:26:04 AM
OTOH:

Smokers Hospitalized Less Often for COVID-19

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200430/smokers-hospitalized-less-often-for-covid-19
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 13, 2020, 08:05:59 PM
.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 13, 2020, 08:58:10 PM
Looking at the list I think there is a lot of variability in how one does those things.  They have "going to the beach" as a 5, but it could be a lot safer than "grocery shopping" depending on the conditions of both activities.  Walking on an empty beach during a weekday when no one is around is much safer than waiting in a crowded line at Walmart.  It is a good guide overall though.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 14, 2020, 05:51:08 PM
Shoppers In England Face $125 Fine For Not Wearing Face Coverings
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinrozario/2020/07/14/shoppers-in-england-face-125-fine-for-not-wearing-face-coverings/

France to make masks compulsory in enclosed public spaces

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/07/14/france-to-make-masks-compulsory-in-enclosed-public-spaces/

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 17, 2020, 08:24:20 PM
Spiking COVID-19 cases show summer's heat doesn't stop the coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 20, 2020, 12:59:18 PM
My news feeds are increasing addressing the supposed shift to fighting aerosol transmission ...which is a whole new ballgame.

U.S. companies fear workplace coronavirus precautions do not address airborne risk - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-airborne/u-s-companies-fear-workplace-coronavirus-precautions-do-not-address-airborne-risk-idUSKCN24L17L

=========


As America struggles to reopen schools and offices, how to clean coronavirus from the air 

The Washington Post (subscription)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/06/26/coronavirus-indoor-air-schools-offices

Excerpts:

When it comes to schools and office buildings, wearing face masks and cleaning surfaces are not enough, experts say. They are recommending a menu of additional measures, many of which call for different ways of circulating and filtering the air.

But these steps are often expensive, rarely mandatory and generally require help from professional engineers. And they can run counter to modern building design, which aims to seal the so-called building envelope to reduce heating and cooling costs. In the time of coronavirus, the new goal is to bring in more fresh air.

reprogram systems to bring in more fresh air and to install UV-C lights inside large building air handlers to kill viruses

Building engineers say the most important practice is to make sure that air turns over frequently, mixing in lots of fresh air, and that it passes through filters that remove viruses.

 do everything from using sanitizing mats for students to walk across at entryways, to installing special closets for personal protective equipment in classrooms, to making water fountains touchless.

not a big fan of indoor barriers or partitions. Air vents tend to push air down from the ceiling and “pick up viruses and spread them around the room,” moving around barriers,

air filtration system, rated at a level known as MERV-13, that matches what is being recommended for the novel coronavirus. So much of the battle will simply involve properly maintaining these filters. That level of filtration should capture about 80 percent of the air particles that can convey the coronavirus

An even more exacting air filtration system is called HEPA, or high-efficiency particulate air. But experts say HEPA is not easily adapted to large buildings because its filters are very thick and require large amounts of energy to clean the air, and because most large buildings weren’t designed for this type of equipment. Stand-alone HEPA units can be installed in individual rooms.

UV-C rays traditionally used for disinfection — can be dangerous to people. Therefore, the devices have to be put in empty locations, such as the dark interiors of air systems.

But it’s unclear how long it takes ultraviolet light to kill coronavirus particles as they are flying through a building’s air system
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on July 20, 2020, 01:52:55 PM
Positive things. If it stops deaths

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 20, 2020, 02:58:50 PM
More on the Oxford vaccine:

"Across the world, about 160 coronavirus vaccines are in various stages of development, according to the World Health Organization. The Oxford shot is close to the front of the pack and has already begun final-stage tests."

"Under its agreement with Astra, the U.S. could begin receiving supplies as early as October."

Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine Shows Dual Immune Response - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-20/oxford-astra-covid-vaccine-shows-dual-immune-action-researcher
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on July 20, 2020, 05:46:06 PM
> vaccine

I have no faith that, should an effective vaccine be produced: 

1. it will be manufactured in sufficient quantities and distributed in some sort of rational way.

2. it won't get diverted to the wealthy and powerful before being allowed to trickle down to average people.

3. it will be affordable.  (I'm thinking it will be 4 digits in price at first.)

Our national handling of PPE tells me it will be a cluster-f--k.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 20, 2020, 07:27:16 PM
CanSino coronavirus vaccine shows immune response in human trial - Reuters
https://in.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cansinobio/cansino-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-immune-response-in-human-trial-idINKCN24L1NP
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on July 20, 2020, 07:37:59 PM
>3. it will be affordable.  (I'm thinking it will be 4 digits in price at first.)

I can't begin to tell you how bizarre that sounds.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 20, 2020, 07:41:09 PM
Deeper info on both of the above vaccine candidates:

New data offer glimpse of efficacy of Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/study-provides-first-glimpse-of-efficacy-of-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 24, 2020, 11:12:26 AM
How the U.S. Compares With the World’s Worst Coronavirus Hot Spots (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/23/us/coronavirus-hotspots-countries.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on July 24, 2020, 01:22:37 PM
S Korean study shows people are most likely to contract covid at home:
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/23/people-are-more-likely-to-contract-covid-19-at-home-study-finds.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 25, 2020, 09:19:49 PM
Well there you go. Whatever you do, don't stay home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on July 26, 2020, 03:01:35 AM
Big study on masks.

https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-c-facemasks.pdf?la=en-GB&hash=A22A87CB28F7D6AD9BD93BBCBFC2BB24
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 26, 2020, 04:41:40 AM
>>masks

A lot of heterogenous data, but the upshot with respect to effectiveness of masks is:

Quote
The use of cotton masks is associated
with a 54% lower relative odds of infection in comparison
to the no mask groups (RR=0.46; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97; N=746)
with a coefficient heterogeneity I2 of 66.6% (Q-test P=0.05).
For paper masks, the relative odds of infection were 39%
lower than in the no mask group (RR=0.61; 95% CI: 0.41-
0.90; N=166; I2=0.0%). On average, we can conclude that
cotton masks exhibit a greater protective potential than
paper masks. The results on paper masks should be
interpreted with caution since there are only two estimates
that emanate from small samples
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 26, 2020, 02:19:53 PM
>people are most likely to contract covid at home:

"While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it, of course, increases contact within a group (i.e. family). This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit: If one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with."

'I Promise. I Promise.' You Can't Cheat A Pandemic | Cognoscenti
https://www.wbur.org/cognoscenti/2020/04/03/hold-the-line-coronavirus-jonathan-smith

‘You Do the Right Things, and Still You Get It’ - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/us/coronavirus-family-houston-masks.html

Many U.S. Homes Too Cramped to Stop COVID's Spread
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200724/many-us-homes-too-cramped-to-stop-covid-19s-spread

NJ COVID-19 cluster traced to high school party, teens not cooperating
https://www.insider.com/new-jersey-coronavirus-cluster-high-school-party-teens-not-cooperating-2020-7

A Texas man died from coronavirus after his granddaughter spread infection to him from attending a party
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-texas-man-died-from-coronavirus-after-his-granddaughter-spread-infection-to-him-from-attending-a-party/ar-BB17bSdJ




======
Soooo, WCGW?

C.D.C. Calls On Schools to Reopen, Downplaying Coronavirus Risks - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/health/cdc-schools-coronavirus.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 26, 2020, 06:04:40 PM
Soooo, WCGW?

C.D.C. Calls On Schools to Reopen, Downplaying Coronavirus Risks - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/health/cdc-schools-coronavirus.html

This is the new battleground. As mask-wearing becomes normalized and as the school year starts to loom large in people's minds, this is where the fight is going. And realistically, this actually is an important and debatable issue.

It seems that the root problem is that people want to make blanket rules. I'm looking at a 1.33% positivity rate in our county with widespread testing happening now. We have had one death and currently have only one hospitalization for a population of 18,000.

https://mariposacounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/89621bfcef274dc89c27642e9be8d28b

Couple that with evidence that child to adult transmission seems to be comparatively rare (see the Sean O'Leary interview below), and there seems to be a lot of desire on the part of parents across the political spectrum here to put kids back in school in the fall. There is some debate on how that will happen - Will kids have to wear masks all day?  Will they be tested monthly? etc, etc. But most people think we can come up with guidelines that would work (despite the strong local faction that says the virus is a hoax and that it's all a ploy to implant tracking chips in us).

In a place like Houston, which had a 25% positivity rate last I checked, it seems like going back to school is crazy.

Meanwhile...

From July 9
CDC Director Says Agency Won’t Revise School Reopening Guidelines — Despite Trump Pressure
https://www.forbes.com/sites/elanagross/2020/07/09/cdc-director-says-agency-wont-revise-school-reopening-guidelines---despite-trump-pressure/#67e7ea14c55c

So much for that.

And then there is the fracas over the American Academy of Pediatrics statement and update to that statement. This was a key talking point on the town meeting with my US Rep. He cited* the AAP statement 5-7 times in the 40 minutes I was on the call, always presenting it as though it were a strong, unqualified endorsement for sending the kids back to school, regardless of Covid.

Of course, the actual AAP statement has caveats like "if possible" and "following public health guidelines." After seeing how their statement was being cited* by the administration and getting pushback because they had not given any consideration to educators and school workers, they have walked back their statement with a new one.

AAP walks back their original statement
https://www.chalkbeat.org/2020/7/10/21320020/school-reopening-american-academy-pediatrics-trump-devos-statement
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/10/889848834/nations-pediatricians-walk-back-support-for-in-person-school

And Forbes portrays this as "slamming" Trump, which seems out of all proportion to the actual events:
"Pediatrics Association Slams Trump Argument For Reopening Schools"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/07/10/pediatrics-association-slams-trump-argument-for-reopening-schools/#530c10ec718f

But an article that is actual helpful in understanding the controversy: an interview with Sean O'Leary, a pediatrician, Covid survivor, father of two school-age children and one of the authors of the statement:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/us/coronavirus-schools-reopening-guidelines-aap.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on July 26, 2020, 08:07:07 PM
And as if from nowhere 4 new cases pop up in Da Nang, coastal city roughly in the middle of Vietnam. The first community transmissions for 100 days.

The response has been swift, this is well worth a tread and is somewhat of a contrast with other countries (you know who you are).

https://www.quora.com/q/thegreatvietcountry/Covid-26-7-3-new-local-cases-today-all-3-connected-to-the-%C4%90%C3%A0-N%E1%BA%B5ng-hospital-and-the-C-hospital-emergency-notices-tota
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 27, 2020, 12:22:33 PM
>from nowhere

Tourists.

Vietnam to evacuate 80,000 people from Danang after virus outbreak
- Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vietnam/vietnam-to-evacuate-80000-people-from-danang-after-virus-outbreak-idUSKCN24S0C0
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 27, 2020, 01:54:27 PM
<+>

Tourists.

Spain Second Virus Wave Swells, Fuels Concern Across Europe
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-26/spain-s-second-virus-wave-swells-fueling-concern-across-europe
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 27, 2020, 09:28:32 PM
US coronavirus: Early signs that new coronavirus cases may have hit a plateau
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/27/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 28, 2020, 12:56:56 AM
This is most likely just a USA issue: Methanol in Hand sanitizers (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244501982.html).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on July 28, 2020, 09:37:16 PM
So... once again, a microbiologist who concludes that there is hardly any risk of getting Covid from surfaces and suggests that people spend more time focusing on avoiding droplets and aerosols, rather than sanitizing light switches and groceries.

Quote
"In a study in which the authors tried to mimic actual conditions in which a surface might be contaminated by a patient, no viable SARS-CoV was detected on surfaces... In my opinion, the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is very small, and only in instances where an infected person coughs or sneezes on the surface, and someone else touches that surface soon after the cough or sneeze (within 1–2 h)."

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30561-2.pdf

Also, coverage of it in the popular press
Hygiene Theater Is a Huge Waste of Time
People are power scrubbing their way to a false sense of security.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/scourge-hygiene-theater/614599

The author of that article interviews another microbiologist who studies disease transmission, Donald Schaffner.

Quote
Schaffner told me, “In the entire peer-reviewed COVID-19 literature, I’ve found maybe one truly plausible report, in Singapore, of fomite transmission. And even there, it is not a slam-dunk case.”
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on July 29, 2020, 09:38:07 AM
https://c19study.com/

Interesting
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 29, 2020, 09:47:20 PM
More on the methanol in hand sanitizers.

Mounting poisonings, blindness, deaths as toxic hand sanitizers flood market (https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/mounting-poisonings-blindness-deaths-as-toxic-hand-sanitizers-flood-market/)

FDA Updates on Hand Sanitizers with Methanol (https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-updates-hand-sanitizers-methanol)  -- the list of brands keeps growing.

Turns out we have a bunch of containers on the list, fortunately we haven't been using them yet!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 30, 2020, 02:30:02 PM
"The superspreader-event triad seems to rely on three V’s: venue, ventilation, and vocalization."

Why Aren't We Talking More About Ventilation? - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/

=========
<+>
Dr. Fauci recommends wearing goggles to prevent catching the coronavirus
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-fauci-recommends-wearing-goggles-to-prevent-catching-the-coronavirus-2020-07-29



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 30, 2020, 07:03:27 PM
Chicago pediatric hospital and Northwestern University: study of children under five who show mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19, those kids were found to contain higher concentrations of the virus compared to older children, teens and adults

Researchers find coronavirus-infected children are major carriers, further complicating the school-reopening debate | Fortune

https://fortune.com/2020/07/30/children-covid-carriers-kids-coronavirus-schools-reopening-viral-load-study/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on July 31, 2020, 01:55:14 AM
Schools opening up in the US is a bit of a fantasy.

Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels, Study Finds (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/health/coronavirus-children.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on July 31, 2020, 11:41:42 AM
Britain brings back restrictions as Europe, Asia see COVID-19 cases spike
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/britain-brings-back-restrictions-europe-asia-see-covid-19-cases-n1235441
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on July 31, 2020, 12:37:29 PM
80 cases in Da Nang. So unexpected they tested one guy 5 times just to check.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on August 01, 2020, 02:34:59 PM
"The Vietnamese coastal city of Danang plans to test its entire population of 1.1 million people for coronavirus, the governing authorities said on Saturday, as 40 new cases linked to the tourist spot were reported across the country, taking total infections to 586, with three deaths."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/01/coronavirus-live-news-who-reports-record-global-daily-cases-as-easing-on-hold-in-england?page=with:block-5f2570748f08bb96099b6385#block-5f2570748f08bb96099b6385
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on August 02, 2020, 04:42:25 AM
Vietnam doesn't mess around.

More on Vitamin D:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276229/


Quote
Conclusion

An inadequate supply of vitamin D has a variety of skeletal and non-skeletal effects. There is ample evidence that various non-communicable diseases (hypertension, diabetes, CVD, metabolic syndrome) are associated with low vitamin D plasma levels. These comorbidities, together with the often concomitant vitamin D deficiency, increase the risk of severe COVID-19 events. Much more attention should be paid to the importance of vitamin D status for the development and course of the disease. Particularly in the methods used to control the pandemic (lockdown), the skin's natural vitamin D synthesis is reduced when people have few opportunities to be exposed to the sun. The short half-lives of the vitamin therefore make an increasing vitamin D deficiency more likely. Specific dietary advice, moderate supplementation or fortified foods can help prevent this deficiency. In the event of hospitalisation, the status should be urgently reviewed and, if possible, improved.

In the meantime, 8 studies have started to test the effect of supplementing vitamin D in different dosages (up to 200,000 IU) on the course of the COVID-19 disease. The aim is to clarify whether supplementation with vitamin D in different dosages has an influence on the course of the disease or, in particular, on the immune response, or whether it can prevent the development of ARDS or thromboses.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on August 02, 2020, 11:15:38 AM
>Vietnam doesn't mess around.

Indeed. Contact tracing & testing. Simple.

"Hà Nội authorities have traced more than 72,000 people who returned to the capital from Đà Nẵng since July 8. Nearly 50,000 of them have undergone rapid testing for COVID-19,"

https://vietnamnews.vn/society/770478/ha-noi-tests-more-than-50000-people-who-returned-from-da-nang.html

Contact tracing is one of the key areas, sample form attached. These are also made public so individuals can see if they need testing
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 02, 2020, 11:59:54 AM
CDC: This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and, contrary to early reports, might play an important role in transmission

The CDC Just Released a Report on Kids Spreading COVID-19
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-cdc-just-released-a-report-on-kids-spreading-covid-19/ar-BB17rRXD
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on August 03, 2020, 07:08:13 PM
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-ancient-immune-underpin-severe-covid-.html

"One of the immune system's oldest branches, called complement, may be influencing the severity of COVID-19 disease, according to a new study from researchers at Columbia University Irving Medical Center."

Good to see we're trying to understand this inexplicable virus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on August 05, 2020, 05:16:57 PM
Proning

https://ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13054-020-03096-x
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on August 05, 2020, 09:37:57 PM
>Proning

Interesting, not really intuitive at first glance.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on August 06, 2020, 03:50:36 PM
Lots of EU upticks.

Northern Ireland at R1.8

https://www.yorkshirecoastradio.com/news/national/3156668/coronavirus-r-rate-may-have-jumped-above-one-in-northern-ireland/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 12, 2020, 10:29:37 PM
Disconcerting.

"We have had 102 days [of no new local cases] and it was easy to feel New Zealand was out of the woods."

"The latest new cases were reported to be within one family in South Auckland, including an individual in their 50s. They have no history of international travel."

New Zealand: Coronavirus Comeback a 'Shock'
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-new-zealand-new-cases-auckland-lockdown-1524529
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 13, 2020, 01:51:42 PM
Imported Chicken Wings (from Brazil) Test Positive for COVID-19
https://www.newser.com/story/294876/imported-chicken-wings-test-positive-for-covid-19.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on August 13, 2020, 08:27:01 PM
Major Antibody Study Finds 3.4 Million in England Had Covid-19 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 13, 2020, 10:05:47 PM
Today must be bad meat day in my feeds....

Doctors Sue USDA for Ignoring Concerns About Potential Presence of SARS-CoV-2 on Meat And Poultry Products

https://www.pcrm.org/news/news-releases/doctors-sue-usda-ignoring-concerns-about-potential-presence-sars-cov-2-meat
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 14, 2020, 05:37:22 PM
Coronavirus: Fines for refusing to wear face mask to increase to £3,200 as Boris Johnson announces new lockdown easing | The Independent

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-today-lockdown-rules-fines-face-mask-boris-johnson-covid-a9669861.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on August 16, 2020, 11:02:07 PM
>> The Independent

Does anyone besides me find it ironic and sad that The Independent used an image for that article which shows a woman wearing a mask to cover her mouth but not nose?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on August 17, 2020, 04:04:11 AM
At least she seems to be outside.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on August 18, 2020, 06:00:04 PM
An interesting read about the drug HCQ, science and politics:

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/hydroxychloroquine-morality-tale
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on August 20, 2020, 10:20:59 PM
Bill Gates: pandemic will be over by end of 2021, but millions more will die before it's over.

Quote
Most of these deaths, he said, would be caused not by the disease itself, but by the further strain on health-care systems and economies that were already struggling. He also lamented the politicisation of the response to the virus in America, and the spread of conspiracy theories—some implicating him—both of which have slowed efforts to contain the disease’s spread. But he offered reasons for hope in the medium term, predicting that by the end of 2021 a reasonably effective vaccine would be in mass production, and a large enough share of the world’s population would be immunised to halt the pandemic in its tracks.

https://www.economist.com/international/2020/08/18/the-covid-19-pandemic-will-be-over-by-the-end-of-2021-says-bill-gates
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on August 23, 2020, 11:47:04 PM
Looks like Europe and the UK are getting a resurgence.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 25, 2020, 11:27:03 PM
 Coronavirus Reinfections Have Now Been Recorded in Three Countries
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-test-reinfection-hong-kong-europe-1527422
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on August 26, 2020, 04:47:32 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html

Quote
A New York Times survey of more than 1,500 American colleges and universities — including every four-year public institution, every private college that competes in N.C.A.A. sports and others that identified cases — has revealed at least 26,000 cases and 64 deaths since the pandemic began.

...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html

Quote
Obesity increases the risk of death from Covid-19 by nearly 50% and may make vaccines against the disease less effective, according to a comprehensive study using global data.

Increased risk of ending up in hospital 113%

Admission to intensive care 74%

Death from Covid 48%
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on August 27, 2020, 10:16:28 PM
If they'd read here, they'd know that already.

Six feet may not be enough to protect against coronavirus, experts warn - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/27/coronavirus-social-distancing-6-feet/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Mackin USA on August 30, 2020, 05:33:32 PM
Up to 10,000 coronavirus conspiracy theorists who think pandemic is a HOAX – including David Icke – march on London

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12532373/coronavirus-conspiracy-theorists-pandemic-hoax-march-london/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on August 31, 2020, 10:10:14 PM
According to an MIT statistics professor, it is now safer to drive than to fly for a 1,000-mile trip in the US

Quote
Barnett, the MIT professor, expanded his analysis of airline empty middle seats by formulating a statistical study on traveling by car, exclusively for Traveler. “Assuming that the driver and passengers do not have COVID-19, the [highest] mortality risk of a 1,000 mile trip would arise from auto accidents," he says. "Assuming that those who would fly are relatively safe drivers, an estimate of the risk tied to U.S. auto deaths per billion miles driven in 2018 would be about one in three million. That is lower than the COVID-related death risk associated with a 1,000 mile flight, which I estimate as 1 death per 600,000 passengers if the plane is 2/3 full. The huge safety advantage of flying 1,000 miles nonstop rather than driving, pre-COVID, has disappeared as of August 2020.”

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/safest-mode-of-transportation-during-covid-19
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on September 01, 2020, 08:28:29 AM
That's an incredible statistic.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on September 01, 2020, 10:06:28 AM
The coronavirus has arrived in my little town. The guy who tested positive is a truck driver. :-(
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on September 03, 2020, 09:46:03 PM
Vitamin D deficiency raises COVID-19 infection risk by 77%, study finds (https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/03/Vitamin-D-deficiency-raises-COVID-19-infection-risk-by-77-study-finds/7001599139929/)

Quote
Vitamin D deficiency increases a person's risk for catching COVID-19 by 77% compared to those with sufficient levels of the nutrient, a study published Thursday by JAMA Network Open found.

As many as one in four of the nearly 500 participants in the study were found to have less-than-optimal levels of vitamin D, the data showed.

Among those found to be lacking the key nutrient, 22% contracted COVID-19, the data showed.

Of the 60% of study subjects with adequate vitamin D levels, just 12% were infected, according to the researchers.

"There is prior evidence from multiple sources that vitamin D can enhance both innate and adaptive immunity," Dr. David O. Meltzer, a professor of medicine at the University of Chicago, told UPI.

Innate immunity refers to the body's natural immune system response. Adaptive immunity describes how the immune system adjusts to a new pathogen -- like a virus -- that is able to evade its natural response.

"Vitamin D also ... may prevent the excess inflammation that is part of the challenge in managing severe COVID-19," Meltzer said.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on September 04, 2020, 03:01:02 AM
>Vitamin D differences because of skin color might be part of the mix when stats show race based variations in COVID outcomes.

Yes, probably a contributor.

Yet more news on  on Vitamin D:
New Study: Vitamin D reduces risk of ICU admission 97% (https://covid.us.org/2020/09/03/new-study-vitamin-d-reduces-risk-of-icu-admission-97/)

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on September 08, 2020, 02:30:53 AM
Oh man, my apologies Buckworks!  I meant to quote you and do a new post, but I must have clicked on the wrong button and modified your post instead. :o
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 08, 2020, 01:34:10 PM
Everything keeps pointing to cold, wet meat & meat processing as a transmission source. Handle those briskets with care, Doc.

Salmon May Harbor Infectious Coronavirus For Week: Covid Study - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-08/salmon-may-harbor-infectious-coronavirus-for-a-week-study-shows
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on September 08, 2020, 03:34:15 PM
>> my apologies Buckworks

Apologies accepted. No meaning was lost.

Now if you'll excuse me I have to go take my Vitamin D supplement. ;)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 10, 2020, 10:09:53 PM
CDC report: Bars/dining out increases risk of contracting coronavirus more than other activities

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/515923-cdc-report-dining-out-increases-risk-of-contracting-coronavirus-more-than
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on September 11, 2020, 05:58:57 AM
CDC report: Bars/dining out increases risk of contracting coronavirus more than other activities

Exactly what the Koreans said all those months ago... the same issue here, we seem to have to learn from our own mistakes not others.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 13, 2020, 03:08:51 AM
Internet searches on gastrointestinal symptoms predicted a rise in Covid-19 cases weeks later

Covid-19 Symptoms: Google Search Results Reveals Virus Hot Spots - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-13/googling-for-gut-symptoms-predicts-covid-hot-spots-study-finds
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: BoL on September 16, 2020, 11:01:31 AM
Snake used as face mask on bus
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54163293

Apparently the bus organisation says this is not a valid face covering
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on September 17, 2020, 02:15:01 PM
Why Can't America Make Enough N95 Masks? 6 Months Into Pandemic, Shortages Persist

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/17/913093387/why-cant-america-make-enough-n95-masks-6-months-into-pandemic-shortages-persist

Hint: US has no plan and no clue.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on September 17, 2020, 05:44:35 PM
Hint: US has no plan and no clue.

I try not to read the news these days, but some days I slip up and do it anyway....

Quote
Mr. Trump publicly slapped down Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as the president promised that a vaccine could be available in weeks and go “immediately” to the general public while diminishing the usefulness of masks despite evidence to the contrary... Mr. Trump lashed out just hours after Dr. Redfield told a Senate committee that a vaccine would not be widely available until the middle of next year and that masks were so vital in fighting the disease caused by the coronavirus, Covid-19, that they may even more important than a vaccine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/us/politics/trump-cdc-covid-vaccine.html

One thing in all this is that as important as masks and vaccines is cheap, rapid testing. Many epidemiologists say that is actually more important than either for safely opening schools, traveling, visiting family and the like. The FDA approved the Abbott Labs rapid test on August 26.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-diagnostic-test-where-results-can-be-read-directly-testing-card

That could be huge, especially if they can ramp up well past 50,000,000 tests per month, but I suspect this is not being talked about more widely by government officials because of the president's hostility to testing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 17, 2020, 07:00:55 PM
US EPA: Pine Sol now approved to kill coronavirus on surfaces

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Living/pine-sol-now-approved-kill-coronavirus-surfaces-epa/story?id=73069295&cid=social_twitter_abcn
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on September 17, 2020, 07:07:22 PM
herd mentality

We're actually in deep sh## at the moment.  Trump has stopped listening to the doctors in the CDC and instead is listening to a Fox News quack (Scott Atlas) who is pushing for herd immunity.  The White House is pushing for states to drop their mask mandates.  His followers are probably going to start having 'covid parties".
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 17, 2020, 07:46:03 PM
UK: Our Favorite Britpop Icons Are Turning Into Anti-Maskers and It's Embarrassing
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bv8e83/noel-gallagher-oasis-ian-brown-stone-roses-anti-maskers-covid-hoax

<+>
'It's heartbreaking': South Shields faces up to new Covid rules
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/17/its-heartbreaking-south-shields-faces-up-to-new-covid-rules
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 17, 2020, 08:16:06 PM
Coronavirus: WHO says weekly cases in Europe eclipse March peak
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54189575
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 18, 2020, 01:11:37 PM
UK: New local lockdown restrictions confirmed in North West, West Yorkshire and the Midlands
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/new-local-lockdown-restrictions-confirmed-18956651
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 18, 2020, 02:07:25 PM
Spain & France on the uptick, too.  Looks like the oft-predicted Fall resurgence is starting to kick in.

Israel to revert back to full lockdown as coronavirus cases climb | TheHill
https://thehill.com/policy/international/517015-israel-to-revert-back-to-full-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 19, 2020, 11:46:33 AM
Coronavirus lockdown restrictions 'increasingly likely' in London, Sadiq Khan warns
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-coronavirus-lockdown-restrictions-likely-sadiq-khan-a4551086.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 19, 2020, 04:59:43 PM
"We conclude that the risk for on-board transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during long flights is real and has the potential to cause COVID-19 clusters of substantial size, even in business class--like settings with spacious seating arrangements"

Covid-19 can spread on airplanes, studies show
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/health/coronavirus-airline-transmission-studies/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 21, 2020, 02:38:25 AM
Airborne Covid-19: Updated CDC guidance acknowledges virus can spread through the air
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/20/health/cdc-coronavirus-airborne-transmission/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 21, 2020, 05:01:12 PM
Yet another flip-flop!

CDC says it erroneously posted guidance that said coronavirus spreads through air and travels beyond 6 feet
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/cdc-says-it-erroneously-posted-guidance-that-said-coronavirus-spreads-through-air-and-and-travel-beyond-six-feet.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on September 21, 2020, 06:42:56 PM
So there is nearly universal agreement that the virus is not spread through surfaces (fomite transmission). Though theoretically possible, I believe there is only one case where that was considered a possible means of transmission and no cases where it is a likely means of transmission.

And the WHO says there is no "definitive" evidence that it can pass through air.

We know that it is not a blood-borne or food-borne pathogen.

What does that leave? It's either being caused by 5G transceivers or a nefarious Tralfamadorian plot.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on September 21, 2020, 07:04:38 PM
>5g transceivers

I effing knew it. lol


Daily wearers of eyeglasses (>8 h/d) may be less likely to be infected with COVID-19. The proportion of daily wearers of eyeglasses hospitalized with coronavirus was lower than that of the local population (5.8% vs 31.5%), finds a new study in China.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/2770872
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on September 21, 2020, 09:01:09 PM
I've always hoped that my shitty eyes would accrue some benefit in the long run!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on September 22, 2020, 04:25:03 PM
Interesting interview with one of the scientists that set the UK on the course of lockdown:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mt0h

he still holds to the 500,000 lives would have been lost as a minimum if we had done nothing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 23, 2020, 02:07:30 PM
New research adds to growing evidence for asymptomatic spread of Covid-19
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-research-adds-growing-evidence-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19-n1240708
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 24, 2020, 07:45:37 PM
US: By August, 1 in 5 Covid-19 cases was someone in their 20s
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/24/health/young-people-coronavirus-stats-wellness-trnd/index.html

..and then universities opened mid-August and....
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 24, 2020, 10:21:25 PM
'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on September 25, 2020, 03:30:23 PM
Quote
Dogs are also able to identify Covid-19 from a much smaller molecular sample than PCR tests, Helsinki airport said, needing only 10-100 molecules to detect the presence of the virus compared with the 18m needed by laboratory equipment.

!!!!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 25, 2020, 03:32:55 PM
I've read previously that it was relatively easy to retrain a sniffer service dog for CV19.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 26, 2020, 05:35:46 PM
US cases pass 7 million mark; Florida lifts restrictions; America is nowhere near herd immunity
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/25/covid-news-donald-trump-rally-virginia-pac-12-football/3524264001/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on September 26, 2020, 07:32:53 PM
I think this was posted several weeks ago, but it is worth taking a fresh look as the state by state situations have changes a lot over time.  Right now the Mid West and South are on fire.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 26, 2020, 09:31:10 PM
>Mid West and South are on fire.

Western states, too.

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon and Utah report record number of new COVID-19 cases
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/518412-four-states-report-record-number-of-new-covid-19-cases

Here in NC, we had the positivity rate down to 4.5%, now numbers are trending up.

<+>
Large study based on national lab blood work done every month on dialysis patients.  We're a looooooong way from herd immunity.

Less than 10% of U.S. show signs of past coronavirus infection, study finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/26/less-than-10percent-of-us-show-signs-of-past-coronavirus-infection-study-finds.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on September 29, 2020, 01:44:27 AM
Ontario sees single-day record of 700 new COVID-19 cases as calls grow to return to Stage 2

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-numbers-september-28-1.5741454
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 01, 2020, 11:59:58 AM
>BAME

Around 50 percent of the people in South Asia and 16 percent of people in Europe now carry this length of DNA, which scientists have now linked to the most severe form of COVID-19.

According to the new research, those who have this genetic inheritance are three times more likely to require mechanical ventilation once they contract the virus

...... This may explain why this now unfortunate variant of chromosome 3 is prevalent in some populations, like in Bangladesh, where 63 percent of people have it, but it's almost absent in others, such as Africa.

This distribution could explain why people of Bangladeshi descent in the UK are twice as likely to die from COVID-19 compared to the rest of the population.

Risk of Severe Coronavirus Linked to Neanderthal Genes From 60,000 Years Ago 
https://www.sciencealert.com/severe-coronavirus-has-been-linked-to-neanderthal-genes-from-60-000-years-ago
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 01, 2020, 06:29:50 PM
That's interesting.  Virtually everyone North of the Sahara has some Neanderthal DNA.  People of European descent tend to have more than East Asians. That chromosome 3 variant seems like a reverse lottery. This might be part of the reason India is spiking right now.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 01, 2020, 09:27:49 PM
Africans carry surprising amount of Neanderthal DNA
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/africans-carry-surprising-amount-neanderthal-dna

TL;DR: Euros are about 2% Neanderthal. Africans roughly 0.3% which is a lot less than Euros, but a lot more than previously thought and primarily due to Europeans migrating back into Africa over the last 20,000 years.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 01, 2020, 11:20:00 PM

Thanks for the link.  That article flipped a lot of my understanding of Neanderthal DNA in modern humans, and it is a topic I've been interested in for some time.  I guess that's the thing about scientific theories, they keep evolving.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 02, 2020, 07:25:23 AM
Trump tests positive.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on October 02, 2020, 01:52:01 PM
Karma.

-----

I'm having trouble to wish him a speedy recovery, because I think the worst thing that could happen for the country's public health would be for him to have one of the mild cases that he (and his supporters) would then just laugh off.

Pray for Joe Biden's health!

Sigh ..,
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 02, 2020, 02:17:52 PM
Trump's positive Covid test was a surprise that many saw coming
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-positive-test-covid-19-surprise-many-saw-coming-coronavirus

Given his history of blatant lying, I had concerns that this was some sort of ploy to downplay the virus.  Something along the line of 'See, I told you it was no big deal.'  But, given that we are in the final throes of the campaign, I don't think he can afford the downtime.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 02, 2020, 04:14:12 PM
some in the medical community suspect our health agencies have been reluctant to accept the data on the airborne transmission of COVID-19—because if they do, they’re acknowledging a problem far more challenging even than what we’ve been dealt with so far.

Protecting against COVID's Aerosol Threat - Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/protecting-against-covids-aerosol-threat/

<+>
Far-UVC light (222 nm) efficiently and safely inactivates airborne human coronaviruses
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67211-2
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 02, 2020, 05:37:57 PM
The airborne threat or the threat of aerosols? I thought that they had been saying all along that airborne spread was the main vector, but that it was droplets, not aerosols that were the main concern.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 02, 2020, 06:40:04 PM
>some sort of ploy

Yeah, that was my first thought.  If he has a "speedy recovery" it could bolster his take on Covid and also get him out of the rest of the debates.  It definitely would be a "Hail Mary" type move potential to backfire though.

edit:spelling
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 04, 2020, 01:24:28 PM
Europe coronavirus: Countries set grim records as restrictions are reimposed
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/04/europe/europe-case-rise-covid-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 04, 2020, 07:46:41 PM
A Godson has it at Manchester university. 6 or 7 of 15 of them on the same floor.


Inevitable.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 05, 2020, 02:45:15 AM
Irish health chiefs recommend return to full lockdown
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ireland/irish-health-chiefs-recommend-return-to-full-lockdown-rte-idUSKBN26P0XS
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 05, 2020, 06:05:28 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on October 06, 2020, 12:30:58 AM
Copper phone case.  Kills germs.  I just ordered one.

https://aeris.one
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 06, 2020, 01:04:24 AM
World Health Organization estimates that 10% of the world’s population has been infected by the coronavirus
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 06, 2020, 05:51:36 AM
Quote
World Health Organization estimates that 10% of the world’s population has been infected by the coronavirus

That actually sounds like good news.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 09, 2020, 06:55:25 PM
This is interesting...
10,000 mink are dead in Covid-19 outbreaks at US fur farms after virus believed spread by humans
 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/us/mink-covid-outbreak-trnd/index.html)

Quote
Dr. Keith Paulson with the UW-Madison Veterinary School Diagnostic Laboratory told CNN affiliate WISN that he noted "significant mortality in the mink" and that three workers there had recovered from the virus after displaying "mild to moderate clinical signs."

...

Mink, which are closely related to weasels, otter and ferrets, appear to suffer similar symptoms to humans. Difficulty breathing and crusting around the eyes are usually seen, but the virus progresses rapidly, and most infected mink are dead by the next day, according to Taylor.
It's unclear what makes mink such a susceptible species, while others appear to be unaffected.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 09, 2020, 08:55:41 PM
I am not a mink, but I tested positive today.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on October 09, 2020, 09:28:48 PM
Yikes! I hope you're one of the mild cases. Any idea where/how you caught it?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 09, 2020, 09:34:04 PM
I hope you are okay! If it's any consolation, I know a handful of people who tested positive and the worst of them had roughly a flu and one of them had almost no symptoms (and he tested positive twice before getting a negative and tested positive for the antibodies b/c he wanted to be a plasma donor).

Keep us posted.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 09, 2020, 09:54:38 PM
Sorry Rupert.  How you doing?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on October 09, 2020, 09:56:56 PM
Godspeed Rupert. Hope it is mild.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on October 09, 2020, 10:03:35 PM
Take care Rupert!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 10, 2020, 12:22:39 AM
It appears that the title of this thread applies more in the US than anywhere else.  Of the countries surveyed, we are the one with the most people who did not learn to share in kindergarten

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 10, 2020, 06:49:41 AM
That is a sobering chart.

Thanks for the wishes.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 10, 2020, 03:21:23 PM
From The Economist email newsletter. God Bless America. Once upon a time, we were the Arsenal of Democracy and the funders of the Marshall Plan and the people needed to be coaxed and cajoled to that point by leaders with vision, and the world was a better place for it (in my biased opinion as an American, of course). Making America Selfish Again is not the path to greatness.

Update - this is the page it comes from:

One in three people want preferential access to a covid-19 vaccine
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/08/one-in-three-people-want-preferential-access-to-a-covid-19-vaccine

Note that in the US it's not "one in three" but closer to 44%
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 13, 2020, 02:11:14 PM
"deaths between March 1 and Aug. 1 increased 20% compared to previous years -- maybe not surprising in a pandemic. But deaths attributed to COVID-19 only accounted for 67% of those deaths."

US: Total deaths recorded during the pandemic far exceed those attributed to COVID-19
https://www.newswise.com/coronavirus/total-deaths-recorded-during-the-pandemic-far-exceed-those-attributed-to-covid-19/?article_id=739660

<+>
U.S. Virus-Death Rate Is World’s Worst Among Developed Nations - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-12/u-s-trails-other-developed-nations-in-curbing-virus-deaths

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 13, 2020, 11:44:28 PM
I suppose it will be a couple of years before we really know the cost of Covid and can disentangle deaths due to Covid directly or indirectly (afraid to go to the ER or unable to get a bed in ICU or delayed cancer screening) and deaths due to lockdown itself (again, delaying cancer screening, but also overdoses and suicides) and deaths prevented by lockdown (car crashes).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 14, 2020, 02:21:17 AM
https://www.microcovid.org/

Worth spending a few minutes on.

Quote
What is the microCOVID project?

This is a project to quantitatively estimate the COVID risk to you from your ordinary daily activities. We trawled the scientific literature for data about the likelihood of getting COVID from different situations, and combined the data into a model that people can use. We estimate COVID risk in units of microCOVIDs, where 1 microCOVID = a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 17, 2020, 10:03:07 AM
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935120307854
Quote
Conclusions

People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
and
Quote
Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5–11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3–22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico.

So the way I read that:   In India, most COVID deaths were for below 65.  So either people dying over 65 were not counted as Covid deaths, or there are fewer people over 65 in India.

In the UK, am estimate of around 350 people have died of covid, who were under 65 and had no other comorbidity.

We are back to how do we let it run hot, without getting the old involved. Particularly as those who suffer most are in poor demographics, with multiple occupancy (generational)  housing, and work in places where they are constantly in touch with lots of people.  IE Taxis, care, waitering etc etc.

I don't see how we can not let it run hotter though, for the furture health of the country. What we are doing now is bring it too its knees.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 17, 2020, 12:55:12 PM
London despairs at new Covid rules as northern England regions rebel - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/uk/london-coronavirus-restrictions-gbr-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 17, 2020, 09:06:30 PM
>>or there are fewer people over 65 in India.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/ - 3.3% over 65 and 0.4% over 80
https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2020/ - 16.1% over 65 and 5.8% over 80

Put another way, the population of India is 11x that of Japan, but Japan about as many people over 80.

Or closer to home for you, India has 20X the population of the UK but only 3x the number over 80.

Have you been following the pro/con controversy over the Great Barrington Declaration?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 18, 2020, 06:14:25 AM
Quote
pro/con controversy over the Great Barrington Declaration
No thx, got it now.
seems the issues with it are:
Quote
natural infections may not induce lifelong immunity,"
Death rate is too high

I think Brazil and India have already gone for it.

Thanks for the population data too.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 18, 2020, 07:22:12 AM
In the US we are heading into new infection rate territory.

Friday was +71,688!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 18, 2020, 07:39:50 AM
We haven't touched on the topic of reinfections in a while, but its looking like people are getting sicker the second time around.

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1315756565882961922?s=21
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54512034
https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/local/208/idaho-woman-in-the-hospital-after-being-infected-with-covid-for-the-second-time/277-ed4adab8-3b87-4722-abd3-d0ff37d74fb1


Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 18, 2020, 07:47:59 AM
But Not Many LM. Thats the good news.

My leaning has been going this way for some time, and I am beginning to believe that we have enough data for this to work now:

https://gbdeclaration.org/video/

Loads of epidemiologies are supporting this. But it is being suppressed as an idea in the UK up until now.

how did you find it Ergo?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 18, 2020, 10:07:59 AM
The impact of lockdown is different in different parts of the world. 
some places it is starvation, others increased deaths due to cancer treatments delayed, and here is one for Africa:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30308-9/fulltext
The immunisation for Diptheria is under threat, beacuse of covid, and the cost of not doing it is high.  The GBD folks suggest a diptheria epidemic is now when not if.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on October 18, 2020, 10:26:30 AM
It puzzles me how some jurisdictions are willing to impose lockdowns but they won't take the much simpler and less disruptive step of making masks mandatory.

I'd have more respect for the GBD if they had mentioned masks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 18, 2020, 10:46:14 AM
Quote
I'd have more respect for the GBD if they had mentioned masks.

I am partway through the videos.  They do I think.  I have not been paying it full attention (Sunday breakfast). A transcript of the video does not seem to be available yet, its 2 hours long. There is a journalist from WSJ asking questions.

The message is to continue with sensible controls, we have to protect the vulnerable.  That is a very key part of the message. It is an age targetted approach.

They are calling for a debate. I see the hand of the "Social Dilemma" suppressing this debate.

This is not a minority professional view. (Not that's an issue, thinking flat earth :) )

added. Where they start talking about masks;
https://youtu.be/jtiInz1DWuA?t=4422
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 18, 2020, 02:45:21 PM
The Guardian just flames the GBD, these responses are better if short:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

The Spectator seems to support them (Boris's old paper )

some of these have good points, others, if they are experts, I think are not being helpful:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

There is a heavy backlash of the Koch support for it.... Branded as climate deniers (could be right not looked)

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 18, 2020, 09:31:27 PM
>>how did you find it Ergo?

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking, "how did I find the videos," meaning did I like/agree with them, then I would just say I don't really watch much video and didn't watch those.

If you are asking, "How did I learn about the Great Barrington Declaration?" then I really can't answer. It's been getting a lot of attention because the Beloved Leader is very sympathetic to the idea. Recently Scott Atlas met with the GB principals, so that pushed it into the US news cycle I guess. And in case you aren't keeping up, the Beloved Leader has grown tired of Anthony Fauci and now depends more on Scott Atlas (a neuroradiologist with no epidemiology training and subject of scathing remarks by Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC).

I saw the stuff in the Guardian but...
>>Guardian just flames

I agree. The Guardian reads highly polemical these days. I heard one journalist say the tragedy of the Trump era is that everyone who covers Trump becomes more like Trump (polemical, yelling, crafting facts to fit their story).

Vox does a fair bit of yelling too (it seems impossible to escape these days). But the best journalists on Vox, though further left than even the Guardian (without being The Nation or Mother Jones), are more measured in their coverage. For example, the other day Ezra Klein did a 90-minute interview with someone who thinks John Bolton is a great man and that Trump should be president because he has great foreign policy. They had a calm, respectful, intelligent discussion, not a debate, aimed at understanding her position, not combatting it.

This seems like a pretty evenhanded report on it:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/21517702/great-barrington-declaration-john-snow-memorandum-explained-herd-immunity
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 19, 2020, 11:48:21 AM
Excellent thanks.
Quote
If you are asking, "How did I learn about the Great Barrington Declaration?"
That was the question.  In the UK it has been suppressed largely, so we are only just hearing about it.

I have attached a Sage report on the idea of herd immunity, that is quite recent, and it took a lot of digging to find.  The one surprise I have is that it links to newspapers. Not what I expect from a scientific approach, it feels wrong.

The key point that I think the GBD miss is how long does the immunity last. Which I agreee LM, is related to the reinfections. There are others. Like how to separate out the !At risk" I cannot help thinking that so much money is thrown at supporting business that do nothing, some money can be found to make them secure.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 19, 2020, 01:08:56 PM
UK: Deaths at home: More than 26,000 extra this year, ONS finds - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54598728
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on October 21, 2020, 08:18:20 PM
Well, something I'd heard about happened to me today ... someone I didn't know told me to remove my mask.

I kept it on, and after a few moments thought I left the gathering ... which <should> have been a place of both welcome and good sense.

Not a good feeling.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 21, 2020, 08:27:30 PM
Sorry that happened to you Buckworks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on October 21, 2020, 09:03:24 PM
It wasn't entirely surprising, because this community has some major covidiots spreading misinformation, up to the point that one person ... whom I used to respect ... promoted an article on Facebook which claimed that wearing a mask means you're submitting to the devil.

I could use suggestions about how to fight covidiots ... without actually fighting!

I need to move carefully, because "this community" is the place where my husband and I are planning to build our house; we're staying here part-time now. Part of me laughs about absurd beliefs ... but another part fears that it's only a matter of time until this region becomes a hot spot.

Sometimes life is tooooo interesting!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 21, 2020, 09:33:37 PM
>I could use suggestions about how to fight covidiots ... without actually fighting!

IMHO you really can't.  Most covidiots are so vested in their opinions that they will risk death before changing their view.  The only times I've seen an about-face is when they (or people close to them) have come down with the virus themselves and have had major complications -- even that doesn't always work.  It is better to just avoid them. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 21, 2020, 09:36:13 PM
Bummer.

>>fight covidiots ... without actually fighting!

Realistically, you probably do not have long enough interaction with these people to have meaningful dialog and even then it may be insurmountable. Basically, what's happening is the mask is a threat to their identity. So the key, if you can do it, is figure out why it threatens their identity and then explain it in terms that appeal to that identity.

As one example, let's say you peg this person as motivated by some sort of "conservative" values. I hate that word since it includes everyone from socially liberal libertarians to socially liberal but theologically conservative Christians (I have several friends who fall into that category who would be considered "liberal" on every social issue except abortion) and flat out alt-right extremists.

But for lack of a better word... conservatives tend to be "in-group" motivated, so explanations that hinge on the importance of family appeal to their sense of identity better than explanations that hinge on "serving the greater good of society." And also, they tend to see lockdown and masks as an affront to their personal liberty.

So, I would propose....

1. A deep nasal breath.
2. "I'm sorry you feel that way, but I have some very high risk people in my family that I need to protect, so I make the personal choice to wear a mask. I'm not trying to tell you what to do, just asking that you respect my choices."

You're an SEO... so you can recognize the keyword stuffing ;-)

Added:

I cross-posted with LM.

>> about-face

I agree that's too much to hope for. My thought was simply that you wanted to be left alone, seen as a human being, and even better, as a reasonable human being who could stand as an example of seeing things differently.

I was thinking more along the lines of first getting them to accept your choice. Getting them to *adopt* your choice is a much bigger project and would likely only happen through long-term association.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on October 21, 2020, 10:24:11 PM
Ergo, that is helpful!

I will drill and drill on that wording until I can say it without ever faltering and never be caught by surprise again!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 22, 2020, 02:29:13 AM
New wording

"I'm sorry you feel that way, but I have some very high risk people in my family that I need to protect, so I make the personal choice to wear a mask. I'm not trying to tell you what to do, just asking that you respect my choices so I can keep my family safe."

Yes, I know it's redundant, but words like family, protect, respect, personal choice, safe are all likely to resonate. They are not likely to agree, but they are more likely to respect your reasoning and stop feeling threatened by you.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 22, 2020, 08:53:24 AM
I think there is great advice there, and my heart goes out to you.

I tend to do as you did, quietly walk away, and then wish I had said something questioning the validity of a statement like that. In that enviroment I think it can be dangerous. My Dad fell out with the local vicar, and i suspect I have a tendence for the same. (The vicar was in Dads eyes not being very forgiving of a sinner. )

Ergo and LMs approaches are I agree better. I am sure anyone would be able to find a bit in the bible that verifys not wearing masks, but equally, I am sure something could be found that agrees with masks (more likely actually) How about this:
https://sojo.net/articles/bible-says-wear-mask-Christians-church-coronavirus

Quote
If mask-wearing prohibited anyone from being faithful to Christ, MacArthur’s pastors and elders might have a valid point — but masks, along with other reasonable precautions to stop this virus, are actually all about being faithful to Christ’s commands.

When Jesus, the “author and finisher of our faith” (Hebrews 12:2 KJV), was asked by a religious legal expert what was the greatest of all God’s commandments, Jesus answered, “Love the Lord your God with all your heart, soul, and mind. This is the first and most important commandment. The second most important commandment is like this one. And it is, ‘Love others as much as you love yourself.’ All the Law of Moses and the Books of the Prophets are based on these two commandments” (Matthew 22:37-40 CEV).

Fire with fire.

as an aside, my Grandparents also fell out with the church :)

So how about the humerous approach:
https://www.keyc.com/2020/08/10/church-sign-draws-laughs-with-made-up-bible-verses-about-masks/

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 22, 2020, 04:47:07 PM
"the study showed that a younger, healthier group of people were getting infected and were arriving at the hospital with less-severe symptoms than those infected in the spring.

However, the researchers' analysis showed that these factors accounted for only part of the improvement in survival. The rest, they suspect, resulted from health care providers' growing experience with the coronavirus. "


Study helps explain declines in death rates from COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-declines-death-covid-.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 24, 2020, 12:08:42 AM
This is sobering

Quote
I’ve never had a pre-existing condition. I was born and raised in Phoenix, where I ran my first marathon at 16 years old. I won my first 50-miler and signed up for my first 100-miler soon after. I’ve run 23 marathons in my life. I’m 32 years old, I’m healthy. In early April, I nearly lost my life to COVID-19. 

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/10/23/covid-19-is-my-pre-existing-condition-what-will-i-do-if-the-affordable-cares-act-is-demolished/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 24, 2020, 10:21:31 AM
U.S. reports more than 83,000 new coronavirus cases, biggest one-day increase on record (https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1319774472250032128)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 24, 2020, 12:43:59 PM
>83000

Poor old Fauci says it is time for a federal mandate for masks. Lotsa luck on that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 24, 2020, 01:14:05 PM
Good map of the UK:
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

and UK data...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Map found by clicking through to the Staging area.

I am predicting we peak about the same as last time.  We are imho slightly ahead of where we were in March, but we are not locking down as hard. I doubt (hope) we will need the nightingale hospitals.

Am I right in thinking the US deaths are going down?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 24, 2020, 02:03:00 PM
>Am I right in thinking the US deaths are going down?

Yes, as of last week's headlines.  Attributed to younger, healthier group now getting the virus and also better treatment as doctors acquire covid experience.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 24, 2020, 02:11:11 PM
<+>

I am currently seeing great wailing and gnashing of teeth ala "We don't know why this is happening again."  The resurgence, IMO, is being largely being attributed to "pandemic fatigue" -no masks, socializing, restaurants.  While I agree that pandemic fatigue is rampant, I also suspect that returning students & staff to schools and universities in an underlying cause, a national superspreader. BUT media seems to be avoiding that topic, as we *really* want to get the kids back to school.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 24, 2020, 03:52:35 PM
It is my great pleasure to serve on the local utilities advisory committee, which basically is the citizens advisory committee to public works for water, sewer and roads and we have a lot of contentious issues. We just finished one lawsuit in June. People are already gearing up for the next.

One of the things that is happening is pressure and demands that we hold in-person, rather than phone meetings. We have one committee member who has health issues in the household sufficient for him to say that he will in no circumstances attend an in-person meeting. One other person has a strong preference for in-person. The rest don't really care that much, but lean toward phone. But certain vocal members of the community are pushing hard for in-person meetings. Since this is a public forum, I'll stop there, but that account does not FULLY PORTRAY THE ALL CAPS ANGER that we're seeing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 24, 2020, 05:40:28 PM
>>Great Barrington

Debate between Jay Battacharya of Stanford (one of the authors) and John Barry, of Tulane and author of The Great Influenza.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/24/the-debate-over-focused-protection.cnn
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 24, 2020, 06:48:32 PM
>schools

Also the constant rallies.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on October 24, 2020, 10:13:45 PM
> committee

I'm on my town's redevelopment commission we've been following the governor's orders for local gov meetings, so after a few months of Microsoft (Live hhh) meetings we've gone back to in person meetings, masked and distanced, with a live real time FB feed for the public because space is limited.  We can have a mix of in person and online commissioners if needed, like if one is quarantined or vulnerable.  That mix, if needed, seems to work.

That said, I don't linger after meetings anymore and I no longer stay around to watch the town council meeting afterwards.  I get out get to the car and sanitize my hands immediately in the car and go home.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 25, 2020, 01:40:49 AM
live real time FB feed for the public because space is limited

Well that's the problem. It's the public who is asking for in-person meetings. On the committee, only one of the seven members wants them. But with the space available, we would only be able to accommodate 8-9 members of public after you make space for the committee and the staff who usually show.

And because so many people here have inadequate internet, FB live is not really an option. A few vocal people keep saying we would get better public participation in person, but the meeting space would be 1.5 hours away as well. I am so over it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 25, 2020, 05:09:43 PM
Spain orders nationwide curfew to stem worsening outbreak
https://apnews.com/article/spain-coronavirus-emergency-europe-2a851229071576fa4fff11162798e3de
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 25, 2020, 10:08:09 PM
<+>

Italy imposes new restrictions as Germany, France, Spain cases surge - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-italy-second-wave-lockdown/2020/10/25/6c011306-16df-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 26, 2020, 08:10:50 AM
Some hope:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-there-are-signs-covid-19-epidemic-is-slowing-but-its-too-early-to-be-confident-12111443
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 26, 2020, 10:36:57 PM
Nottingham to move into tier 3 - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54554377
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 27, 2020, 07:05:51 PM
Nature (the journal, not the Mother) weighs in on the Great Barrington Declaration:

TL;DR
 - 1-2 million deaths in the US
 - many more with long covid
 - immunity expected to last one year similar to other coronaviruses
 - level to achieve herd immunity varies wildly depending on what else is going on in the culture
 - the one place thought to have achieved it, Manaus, had 4x the normal death rate, cases dropped in August, but are on the rise again

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 27, 2020, 07:10:05 PM
Do masks help? Interesting data in a single graph

(http://th3core.com/talk/water-coolerextra/corona-virus-save-yourselves/?action=dlattach;attach=3806;image)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/23/pandemic-data-chart-masks/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 27, 2020, 07:15:59 PM
Meanwhile, quit obsessively wiping sh## down. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. But quit disinfecting your groceries.

https://www.wired.com/story/its-time-to-talk-about-covid-19-and-surfaces-again/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 27, 2020, 07:20:26 PM
More on the effectiveness of masks

Quote
Confidence in masks grew in June with news about two hair stylists in Missouri who tested positive for COVID-191. Both wore a double-layered cotton face covering or surgical mask while working. And although they passed on the infection to members of their households, their clients seem to have been spared (more than half reportedly declined free tests). Other hints of effectiveness emerged from mass gatherings. At Black Lives Matter protests in US cities, most attendees wore masks. The events did not seem to trigger spikes in infections2, yet the virus ran rampant in late June at a Georgia summer camp, where children who attended were not required to wear face coverings3.

Quote
In a review9 of observational studies, an international research team estimates that surgical and comparable cloth masks are 67% effective in protecting the wearer.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 27, 2020, 07:25:25 PM
And a bit of hope

TL;DR... the cavalry actually IS coming.... but not this winter.

Quote
Since January, when I began covering the pandemic, I have been a consistently gloomy Cassandra, reporting on the catastrophe that experts saw coming: that the virus would go pandemic, that Americans were likely to die in large numbers, the national lockdown would last well beyond Easter and even past summer. No miracle cure was on the horizon; the record for developing a vaccine was four years.

Events have moved faster than I thought possible. I have become cautiously optimistic. Experts are saying, with genuine confidence, that the pandemic in the United States will be over far sooner than they expected, possibly by the middle of next year.

Quote
That is still some time off. Experts warn that this autumn and winter may be grim; indoor dining, in-classroom schooling, contact sports, jet travel and family holiday dinners may all drive up infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Cases are rising in most states, and some hospitals already face being overwhelmed.

Even if the cavalry is in sight, it is not here yet. To prevent deaths reaching 400,000, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci has warned, “We all need to hunker down.”
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on October 27, 2020, 07:43:46 PM
Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873
Quote
Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells.
The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.
They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

However I am told that is normal, and the cells that produce antibodies will still be there ready to fight another day. Which means that the reporter is just plain wrong.  I hope so.

Also:
Coronavirus vaccine: When will we have one? ( backing up earlier post by Ergo)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51665497

Quote
There is widespread expectation that the first clinical trials will release their results this year. ......  Most experts think the vaccine will not be widely available until the middle of 2021.



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 28, 2020, 12:04:41 AM
> But quit disinfecting your groceries.

My Infection Control Supervisor says ozoning all the groceries while still in the back of the van is too easy to do, so we're to still disinfect.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 28, 2020, 12:23:20 AM
Well, you have a reason and you are doing ALL the other stuff.

I'm thinking of the people who are disinfecting their groceries and then masking up and hopping in the car with someone from outside their household. It's like in HI when the closed the beaches, one of the safest possible spots, but opened the bars.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 28, 2020, 05:10:21 PM
A map of the Covid-19 cases from last month in the USA. (https://i.redd.it/g2dj7c0eztv51.png)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 28, 2020, 08:17:45 PM
So much for the "Covid is a Blue State problem" narrative. I wonder if the map author chose her colors as a joke.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 29, 2020, 02:27:16 AM
To that end:
White House science office says Trump ended COVID-19 pandemic as US hits record cases (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-says-trump-ended-covid-pandemic-as-us-hits)

Quote
The White House science office listed "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term, even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points.

I don't think George Orwell ever envisioned such incompetence.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 29, 2020, 05:23:40 AM
>>Orwell
http://th3core.com/talk/water-coolerextra/quotes-that-hit-home/msg70483/#msg70483
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 29, 2020, 09:35:30 PM
Covid-19: Number of people needing kidney dialysis has ‘increased dramatically’
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-number-of-people-needing-kidney-dialysis-has-increased-dramatically-1.4394824
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 29, 2020, 09:43:44 PM
>>reduction in transplants

So that doesn't sound like Covid is necessarily scary.

>>about a third ended up requiring dialysis in the intensive care unit. Most, but not all,
>>recovered kidney function, some of them will end up requiring permanent dialysis.”

Okay, scratch that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 29, 2020, 09:45:21 PM
And while we're sharing happy news from Irish Tims

Quote
“The coronavirus is not only a respiratory illness. Research shows it is causing a spike in stroke due to unusual clotting of blood in asymptomatic healthy people,” says Galvin
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/minimising-your-risk-of-stroke-during-pandemic-is-crucial-1.4386137
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 30, 2020, 03:40:11 PM
About 20% of grocery store workers had Covid-19, and most didn't have symptoms, study found - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/health/grocery-workers-increased-covid-19-risk-wellness/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on October 30, 2020, 05:52:33 PM
Headline: In the study, 20% of the 104 grocery workers tested at a store in Boston in May had positive nasal swab tests.

Text: In the study, 20% of the 104 grocery workers tested at a store in Boston in May had positive nasal swab tests.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on October 31, 2020, 04:40:05 AM
The virus is absolutely out of control in the USA; depending on who's counter you follow Friday was somewhere between 97k and 101k confirmed new cases.  We have over three million active cases.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 31, 2020, 12:54:10 PM
Covid 'running riot' in England as lockdown expected next week | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/covid-running-riot-in-england-as-lockdown-looms-scientist-says
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on October 31, 2020, 08:45:24 PM
Coronavirus England: Boris Johnson imposes 4-week lockdown order as cases surge
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/31/prime-minister-boris-johnson-imposes-stay-at-home-order-in-england-as-coronavirus-cases-surge.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 01, 2020, 03:09:58 PM
Bwwwahahaha! How could he betray us so?!!

Boris Johnson accused of 'giving in to scientific advisers' as England heads for lockdown.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/uk/uk-lockdown-coronavirus-reaction-gbr-intl/index.html

Also, he's The Grinch.


England Virus Lockdown May Be Extended Beyond December
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-01/england-virus-lockdown-could-yet-be-extended-minister-warns
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 05, 2020, 02:01:42 AM
United States tops 100,000 new coronavirus cases in a day for first time - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/03/covid-coronavirus-updates-2/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on November 05, 2020, 02:59:32 AM
More unfortunate news.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/jnwx9x/denmark_mutated_coronavirus_from_mink_is_a_threat/gb45enn/

Quote
    Mutated coronavirus from mink is a threat to humans

    The situation regarding corona infection among mink has now developed to a critical stage in North Jutland.

    According to B.T.'s information, a mutated coronavirus migrated from mink to humans and has since spread strongly among the citizens of Vensyssel in North Jutland.

    On Tuesday, the government received a note from the Statens Serum Institut, which has exposed the mutated coronavirus to antibodies. The result, according to SSI, was deeply troubling because the mutated coronavirus did not respond well to the antibodies.

    Thus, there is a risk that a possible vaccine against covid-19 will not have the desired effect if the mutated virus from mink spreads further among humans.

    That is why Mette Frederiksen has convened a press conference on Wednesday at 4 pm, where she herself will participate virtually.

    B.T. learns that there are new restrictions for humans on the way in northern Jutland to stop the spread of the coronavirus from mink.

    The other party leaders were summoned to a briefing on Wednesday afternoon.

Danish link:
https://www.bt.dk/politik/alle-mink-skal-slaas-ihjel-muteret-coronavirus-fra-mink-er-en-trussel-for
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 05, 2020, 09:42:56 PM
US sets a record with 102,831 new cases in a day.
Covid-19 hospitalizations reached all-time highs in 16 states

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/11/05/outbreak-us-sets-a-record-with-102831-new-cases-in-a-day/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Damian on November 06, 2020, 07:55:51 AM
AI can detect COVID-19 from the sound of your cough
Quote
The AI model correctly identified 98.5% of people with COVID-19, and correctly ruled out COVID-19 in 94.2% of people without the disease. For asymptomatic people, the model correctly identifed 100% of people with COVID-19, and correctly ruled out COVID-19 in 83.2% of people without the disease.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/ai-can-detect-covid-19-from-the-sound-of-your-cough/ar-BB1aFgQt
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on November 06, 2020, 09:34:47 AM
Good find Damian. Reading down:

Quote
And they aren't the only team working on detecting COVID-19 through sound. Similar projects are underway in Cambridge University, Carnegie Mellon University and the U.K. start-up Novoic, according to BBC.

"Pandemics could be a thing of the past if pre-screening tools are always-on in the background and constantly improved," the authors wrote in the paper. Those always-listening tools could be smart speakers or smart phones, they wrote.

"always-on"  eeeek... could be the law.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 07, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
U.S. reports record 126,400 new coronavirus cases as medical experts warn worst days of pandemic are ‘still ahead of us’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/07/us-reports-record-126400-new-coronavirus-cases-.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 07, 2020, 10:19:48 PM
France posts record 60,486 new coronavirus cases | Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-casualties/france-posts-record-60486-new-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN27M2LY
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on November 07, 2020, 11:00:50 PM
What about the number of deaths and ICU cases? It seems like on the medical end they have a much better handle on it in terms of survival. In terms of other forms of damage, I don't know. I get the sense that some forms of damage (renal failure) are related to severe cases with long ICU stays, while some other "long Covid" complications can happen even in people who are asymptomatic in the initial infection.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 07, 2020, 11:07:31 PM
>ICU

Minnesota hospital leaders express concerns as COVID-19 hospitalizations push ICUs toward capacity | KSTP.com
https://kstp.com/coronavirus/minnesota-hospital-leaders-express-concerns-as-covid-19-hospitalizations-push-icus-toward-capacity-november-6-2020/5917696/

With COVID-19 cases rising in Carroll County, so are noncompliance, ICU bed usage, demand for tests - Carroll County Times
https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/carroll/news/cc-carroll-covid-update-110620-20201105-rmkauveczfghligyg7tilkahuq-story.html



Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on November 07, 2020, 11:21:51 PM
OK, that's bad.

I mentioned that at our local utilities board meetings, people are really pushing for in-person meetings and I'm refusing... and people are getting pissed at me. It's just part of the disconnect between people based on their social context that we're seeing.

Of course, I have a vested interest in pissing people off. My best-case scenario is that they get pissed off enough to get me impeached as chairperson. As I told them, if they would just get organized to circulate a petition to have me fired, bring it by my house so I can be the first to sign :-)

Anyway... I digress. Point being, that I read stories like that and think, "Why would we meet in person?" and they go to their... ahem... political rallies and say, "See, we can meet in person." The three most vocal proponents of meeting in person are
 - 68 and massively obese
 - 84 and massively obese
 - 64 and numerous underlying health issues.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 07, 2020, 11:41:47 PM
>in-person
>rallies

Tell 'em RC sent them this;

Stanford study links Trump rallies to 30,000 COVID-19 cases, 700 deaths
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/11/02/stanford-study-links-trump-rallies-to-30000-covid-19-cases-700-deaths/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on November 08, 2020, 01:07:06 AM
Yeah, I saw that. Fake news from some liberal university.

I heard otherwise at our county Board of Supervisors meeting where one of the Supervisors sponsored a presentation from two "experts" on coronavirus, a local guy with a doctorate... in physics. And his wife, a "self-taught natural health expert." They took up close to an hour of the meeting with a presentation detailing how the pandemic was a hoax.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 08, 2020, 01:16:37 AM
More hoax news from ...Fox.

Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff, tests positive for coronavirus | Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-chief-of-staff-mark-meadows-tests-positive-for-coronavirus


Ya go to meetings, ya gets de virus.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 08, 2020, 01:34:44 AM
Biden announcing COVID task force on Monday - Axios
https://www.axios.com/biden-to-announce-covid-19-task-force-monday-23b353bd-863b-4e0f-bb64-c6da4a5758b2.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on November 08, 2020, 08:59:52 AM
>> What about the number of deaths and ICU cases?

Not scientific in anyway, but then reduction in deaths, could that be due to the fact a lot of the easy ones have been taken?

Flu deaths across the year have been significantly reduced compared to previous years.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on November 09, 2020, 03:50:49 AM
My brother tested positive Saturday, seems very difficult to avoid getting it in the UK.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on November 09, 2020, 06:21:56 AM
I hope he has a speedy recovery.

---

@ 10 million people we're officially cracking 1 in every 33 people in the USA.  Everyone I know knows multiple people who are infected. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on November 09, 2020, 12:40:12 PM
>> Everyone I know knows

I now know someone who has it ... learned about it on the weekend. He's in the next province.

Manitoba is doing poorly at the moment. Lots of community spread, and scandals in long term care homes.

We're going out very little. At least I'm getting some good site work done.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on November 09, 2020, 03:41:01 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105
Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection


Quote
The developers - Pfizer and BioNTech - described it as a "great day for science and humanity".
Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.
The companies plan to apply for emergency approval to use the vaccine by the end of the month.
There are still huge challenges ahead, but the announcement has been warmly welcomed with scientists describing themselves smiling "ear to ear" and some suggesting life could be back to normal by spring.
"I am probably the first guy to say that, but I will say that with some confidence," said Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 10, 2020, 09:13:26 PM
Stay outta restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels....

"In Chicago, for instance, the study’s model predicted that if restaurants were reopened at full capacity, they would generate almost 600,000 new infections, three times as many as with other categories. The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature, also found that about 10% of the locations examined accounted for 85% of predicted infections."

"The idea that restaurants may be feeding a new wave of infections as they open up isn’t unique to this study. JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Monday said they found the level of in-person spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of where new cases would emerge.

Similarly, higher spending in supermarkets indicated a slower spread, suggesting shoppers in those regions may be living more cautiously, according to researchers at the bank, which tracks spending of 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders."


Study of cellphone big data of 98 million puts restaurants (and I assume bars are included in this group) as the top dawg among spreaders.

Covid Superspreader Risk Is Linked to Restaurants, Gyms, Hotels

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-10/covid-superspreader-risk-is-linked-to-restaurants-gyms-hotels
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 11, 2020, 07:09:17 PM
UK Study Confirms Existence Of ‘Long Covid,’ With 7 In 10 Patients Experiencing Debilitating Symptoms Weeks After Hospital Discharge

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/11/11/study-confirms-existence-of-long-covid-with-7-in-10-patients-experiencing-debilitating-symptoms-weeks-after-hospital-discharge/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 12, 2020, 05:52:34 PM
US Big box mask policy change that hit quite a few customers.

Costco updates mask policy to include those with medical conditions - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-updates-mask-policy-to-include-those-with-medical-conditions-2020-11
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on November 12, 2020, 09:01:03 PM
Nearly half of coronavirus patients in some NHS hospitals are likely to have caught the virus there, "shocking" new figures show. ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/03/shocking-nearly-half-covid-patients-hospitals-likely-have-caught/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8911353/Patients-hospitals-coronavirus-admission-figures-reveal.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on November 12, 2020, 09:13:37 PM
Some of us know Tony Wright, the author of this article, through SEO circles:

https://medium.com/@tonywright_80709/a-dinner-party-killed-my-dad-218101b758b4

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 12, 2020, 09:40:23 PM
CDC review of its enhanced screening program for air passengers arriving from certain countries
Screening travelers for symptoms of Covid-19 was ineffective, CDC study says | CNN Travel
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cdc-study-symptom-screening-airport-covid-19-ineffective/index.html

Study of US Marine recruits
Fever, symptom screening misses many coronavirus cases
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-public-health-c31802fea6720906a9b9c2f913f9acb7


<+>
This may relate to Rupert's post "Nearly half of coronavirus patients in some NHS hospitals are likely to have caught the virus there" as symptom screening is all hospitals and medical services are doing.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on November 12, 2020, 09:56:02 PM
I suspect the numbers picked are for effect, I struggle to believe it is that bad in the hospitals.  But as ever facts are difficult to find.

Buckworks, that is a gruelling tale.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on November 13, 2020, 03:56:28 AM
It's hitting here, neighbors all around either are sick (and waiting for test results) or having to quarantine because they had contact with someone.  The vector with all seems to be the kids are bringing it home but I don't know if it is from schools or other activity.

School districts in the area are all going to 100% online instruction.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 13, 2020, 03:19:14 PM
The U.S. again broke records for new cases — more than 160,000 — and hospitalizations. - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/12/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates#the-us-again-broke-records-for-new-cases-more-than-160000-and-hospitalizations

‘Catastrophic’ lack of hospital beds in Upper Midwest as coronavirus cases surge - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/

US COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 14, 2020, 02:18:29 PM
Up, up, up!

Covid in the U.S.: 181,194 on Nov 13 - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 15, 2020, 03:01:42 AM
Walmart will start limiting the number of people in stores nationwide on Saturday to combat the spread of COVID-19

https://www.kktv.com/2020/11/14/walmart-will-start-limiting-the-number-of-people-in-stores-nationwide-on-saturday-to-combat-the-spread-of-covid-19/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 18, 2020, 10:35:14 PM
US reaches grim milestone of 250,000 coronavirus deaths

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/526354-us-reaches-grim-milestone-of-coronavirus-250000-deaths
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 20, 2020, 07:41:01 PM
US: 185000 cases/day
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on November 20, 2020, 07:45:16 PM
Stay outta restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels....

Just heard from friends who are waiters. Their restaurant has 300 reservations for Thanksgiving dinner. They expect to serve at least 400.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 20, 2020, 08:08:39 PM
Don’t Eat Inside a Restaurant - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/can-you-get-coronavirus-inside-restaurant/617151/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 22, 2020, 02:00:46 PM
US confirms 1 million COVID cases in 6 days, surpassing 12 million total on Saturday
https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-covid-cases-12-million/8153077/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 28, 2020, 03:17:06 PM
U.S. COVID hospitalizations top 90,000 for the first time - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-hospitalizations-top-90000-united-states/

<+>
Thanksgiving Marks 24th Consecutive Day the U.S. Surpasses 100,000 Daily COVID Cases
https://www.newsweek.com/thanksgiving-marks-24th-consecutive-day-us-surpasses-100000-daily-covid-cases-1550776

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on November 28, 2020, 04:58:07 PM
>>Thanksgiving

Things are off the hook here. All of SFO and LA decided to get away from the crowds and come here with the predictable result that it's now more crowded than LA or SFO. A friend went to the grocery store yesterday and the line to get into the park at 1:30 was two miles long. Yes two measured miles - from the gate to the Fish Camp store... might be 1.9. The hotels and restaurants are overflowing. Rumor is that the trails are completely packed and most people don't have masks. No parking. There is a governor's order that anyone from out of state should quarantine for two weeks. They seem to be quarantining on our trails and in our restaurants.

In other words, there is no virus. Everything is normal. Go about your lives.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on November 28, 2020, 05:03:10 PM
Scented candles ... an unexpected victim of Covid.

https://twitter.com/TerriDrawsStuff/status/1331362372179554304

"I purchased three of these. What a waste. There’s virtually NO scent to these at all!! If I wasn’t confined to my home because of covid I would return these for sure."

Maybe this should have gone in the humor thread!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on November 28, 2020, 06:14:26 PM
>Things are off the hook here.

We went out on the barrier islands for a picnic and some bird-watching on the Atlantic Flyway's shore marshes.  (Thousands of swans there this year, btw.) You'd expect that area to be void of humans in late Fall ....but not this year!  There were pretty good crowds at all the the pull-offs and park facilities.  A good number of restaurants were open and one of the best ones had a nearly full parking lot by 5:30. 

Judging from the lights & cars, cottages along the oceanfront road were 20-25% occupied in the more popular sections and 15% in other areas. 

25-30% of women wore masks in restrooms and parking lots. <5% of men.

>there is no virus. Everything is normal. Go about your lives.

Same here on the East Coast.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on November 28, 2020, 07:02:57 PM
<5% of men.

What, me worry?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on November 30, 2020, 05:46:23 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55102867

Quote
Pubs, restaurants and bars will be subject to stricter Covid-19 restrictions in the run up to Christmas, the first minister has said.

The new restrictions, which have not yet been finalised, will come into force from Friday, 4 December.

They may be based on the system in some parts of Scotland where no alcohol can be served.

So what's the point in going to a pub in Wales???????
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on November 30, 2020, 06:02:10 PM
Its all OK, The Scotts can have a scotch egg.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55129828

Its so easy to get the wrong end of the stick from the news.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on November 30, 2020, 07:57:07 PM
<5% of men.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 01, 2020, 12:28:36 AM
Trav - this has made me, my wife and now multiple friends laugh. Thank you.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on December 05, 2020, 04:34:18 AM
A fascinating article about COVID-19 vaccine development:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/the-story-of-mrna-how-a-once-dismissed-idea-became-a-leading-technology-in-the-covid-vaccine-race/

The work to develop a coronavirus vaccine (not necessarily COVID19) actually started more than 10 years ago, which explains how/why companies have been able to be ready to come to market in 8 months instead of 5 year.

It gives me higher confidence.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on December 05, 2020, 05:59:48 AM
May cause some to act more responsibly:
Another Reason to Wear a Mask: COVID-19 May Cause Erectile Dysfunction (https://www.nbcchicago.com/lx/another-reason-to-wear-a-mask-covid-19-may-cause-erectile-dysfunction/2386588/)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 06, 2020, 08:07:52 PM
Another problem for vaccination. Rural areas have much lower flu vaccinations
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/12/06/flu-vaccine-rates-rural-covid-19-vaccine/3832618001/

Quote
“We don't have the convenience of jumping into a Walgreens, CVS or Walmart and getting our flu shot. Our nearest Walgreens and Walmart are 30 miles away,” said Dr. Jennifer Bacani McKenney, a family physician and the Wilson County Health Officer in Fredonia, Kansas, explaining some of the barriers in rural areas that exist in addition to vaccine hesitancy and distrust.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 18, 2020, 12:56:15 AM
Just heard from friends who are waiters. Their restaurant has 300 reservations for Thanksgiving dinner. They expect to serve at least 400.

Yosemite's Ahwahnee hosted massive Thanksgiving feast. Unmasked guests had workers appalled.
https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks/article/Yosemite-Ahwahnee-covid-aramark-pandemic-15809327.php

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 18, 2020, 07:36:47 PM
Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on December 18, 2020, 09:32:04 PM
Weddings to Die For

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/the-meaning-of-the-texas-monthly-covid-weddings-story.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 18, 2020, 10:03:50 PM
Quote
And in what may be the COVID wedding to end all COVID weddings, 23 nursing-home residents died after staff attended a 300-person wedding in Washington state.

That is horrific.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 18, 2020, 10:30:34 PM
71 percent in U.S. report that they would get COVID-19 vaccine

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-percent-covid-vaccine.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on December 18, 2020, 11:51:58 PM
>That is horrific.

And should be criminal negligence at this point.  I don't understand how people could be playing Russian Roulette with other people's lives and not get prosecuted.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 19, 2020, 01:20:01 AM
(State gov) Sen. Jeff Jackson : Here’s the vaccine situation in North Carolina: overall supply, your place in line, and how quickly the line might move

https://old.reddit.com/r/Charlotte/comments/kfot7v/heres_the_vaccine_situation_in_north_carolina/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on December 19, 2020, 02:39:53 AM
[sad] I've just learned that my Aunt Ida has covid. She's in a long-term care home in Winnipeg. She's 98, about as vulnerable as it gets.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on December 19, 2020, 05:16:22 PM
Meanwhile in Brazil:
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/12/19/brazil-faces-hard-spending-choices-in-2021

Quote
IN THE FINAL days of a tight mayoral race in November in São Gonçalo, an unglamorous city across the bay from Rio de Janeiro, one of the candidates, a retired police officer known as Capitão Nelson, made his way down a street lined with supporters. The mood was euphoric. A maskless man with a bottle of sanitiser on a string around his neck stomped his feet to funk music and squirted the gel into the air “to kill the germs” of the rival party. Humberto Perez, a handyman, likes the captain “because he cares about poor people, just like the president”, Jair Bolsonaro. After work dried up in March a monthly payment from the federal government kept him from going hungry. “And the campaign gave me a free lunch,” he said, with a toothy grin.

The fact that some Brazilians are celebrating during a pandemic that has killed 180,000 of their fellow citizens is among covid-19’s many paradoxes. So is the reason for their cheer: that a right-wing, pro-market government has rolled out the biggest welfare programme in Brazil’s history. Before the pandemic, extreme poverty was on the rise. Nearly 1m families were on the waiting list for Bolsa Família, a conditional cash-transfer programme that the government had ....

Interesting picture:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/tracking-covid-19-across-the-world
(I don't pay, I just get the email and read the first few sentences. )


Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 19, 2020, 06:17:41 PM
I'd noticed that Moderna was being heavily allocated to nursing homes.  My daughter reminded me that "the main reason for Moderna in nursing facilities is because it can be stored in a regular freezer for up to 30 days where the Pfizer has to be ultra cold all the time."

Moderna is also the likely one to go to rural hospitals for the same reason. Also, Moderna comes pre-package in much smaller lots that Pfizer, so distribution logistics are much easier.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 19, 2020, 08:49:49 PM
Sorry to read that Elisabeth. I hope she pulls through and, even more, that the vaccine comes to her home and she can have visitors again
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on December 19, 2020, 09:36:41 PM
Oh dear, I missed that. Just posted underneath. Sorry.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on December 19, 2020, 11:40:39 PM
>> pulls through

My uncle called last night to tell me she had tested positive but he didn't have any details. I later learned from one of my cousins that she doesn't have severe symptoms, at least so far, so we're hoping she might be one of the lucky ones. But the home has seen seven deaths already so it's no sure thing.

I'll keep you posted as it all unfolds.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on December 21, 2020, 09:13:13 AM
New Variant sweeps through London:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

seems it spreads more easily.  The French have stopped the ports (Could be part of fishing talks, cough :)) 

And London has been locked down, with people told not to leave. 
Most I think (People I hear about) are staying put, but there is chaos on the trains out of the city.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 24, 2020, 02:48:35 AM
>variant

Tracking B.1.1.7 - Evidence mounts: a new coronavirus variant is more transmissible | The Economist

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/12/23/evidence-mounts-a-new-coronavirus-variant-is-more-transmissible
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on December 24, 2020, 05:43:11 AM
We passed one million vaccinated people today in the US.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on December 24, 2020, 07:15:27 AM
apparently, the variant  in South Africa is more transmittable too
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 24, 2020, 07:03:09 PM
In our region we are at 0.0% ICU capacity. I'm hoping that by starting with the most vulnerable, by the time we get to 10% (33 million people, 66 million doses), we will have taken the pressure off the hospitals, but people seem to have gotten so complacent.

The NYT occasionally publishes a chart like the one below from a few days ago based on the following methodology
 - throughout the virus, for every 100 cases reported, there have been 1.6 deaths.
 - the deaths on average occur 22 days after the report of the infection
 - combining those two facts, you can index deaths to case reports, and then offset them by 22 days.
 - this basically gives you a prediction of future deaths that has been quite accurate since April. It seems to be diverging more and more though, which I suspect is partly more testing and partly that so many of the most vulnerable have already had it and either died or acquired some immunity (a friend of a friend who works a long-term care facility said that every resident but one has had Covid at this point).

Looking at that, we can expect deaths to rise for a while yet. If you look, there was a drop around Thanksgiving, and then a slightly accelerated curve. I suspect the drop is simply reporting delays over the holidays.

I'm assuming we'll see something similar for Christmas, but I think Christmas will not drive the pandemic to the same extent that Thanksgiving for the simple reason that so many things are shut down. The local hotel served 440 people for Thanksgiving dinner and will serve zero for Christmas.

Still, I think we'll have a Christmas spike. That means we stay at these high levels for 22 days after Christmas and lets say "Christmas" goes through Dec 28 before people are done with travel. So that means deaths don't start to come down until January 19.

All that to say that I am expecting at least in our area, hotels and restaurants will be closed until at least early February. Then hopefully the combined effects of the Regional Stay at Home Order and ramped up vaccination will begin to really kick in. That leads me to guess that we'll see hotels reopen in the first half of February.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 26, 2020, 04:07:24 PM
>variant

France, Japan report cases of new virus strain - ABC7 New York
https://abc7ny.com/new-covid-strain-coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-shutdown/9082054/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on December 26, 2020, 11:45:08 PM
Japan to close all borders (from all countries) starting from 28th Dec until the end of January (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/27/national/japan-entry-foreign-nationals-coronavirus/)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on December 26, 2020, 11:48:20 PM
On a cheerier note, my aunt still has only mild symptoms. She might be one of the lucky ones.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on December 27, 2020, 12:03:45 AM
Good news Bucky! 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on December 27, 2020, 03:12:49 AM
Good to hear. I just talked to a friend yesterday - her 99-year-old grampa got Covid and pulled through with no major issues. Very sick for a week (maybe 2), but no hospital visit.

On the other hand, she's an ER nurse and said she has been seeing people die on her shifts that would never have died pre-Covid, because the Covid patients have taken all the beds. Things like a guy a few days ago with a mild heart attack who would have been treated easily under normal circumstances, but he died because they didn't have a bed for him. I wonder how many of these deaths there have been and how those will get counted. Fortunately it's a hoax. I can only imagine how much suffering there would be if it were real.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 27, 2020, 03:30:40 AM
Good news, BW!

meanwhile...
Canada records 1st cases of new virus variant | WOODTV.com
https://www.woodtv.com/health/coronavirus/canada-records-1st-cases-of-new-virus-variant/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: grnidone on December 27, 2020, 05:11:13 PM
>  Things like a guy a few days ago with a mild heart attack who would have been treated easily under normal circumstances,


Our hospital in Hays had 4 people do that in a week: heart problem, no beds.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on December 28, 2020, 04:52:11 AM
deaths in the U.S. now total more than 332,000

US coronavirus cases top 19 million mark.
https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/us-coronavirus-cases-top-19-million-mark
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on December 28, 2020, 06:48:21 PM
Brazil studies 58 cases of COVID-19 re-infection

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-reinfection/brazil-studies-58-cases-of-covid-19-re-infection-health-ministry-idUKKBN28L2JL


Quote
The FioCruz researcher who did the genetic sequencing of the infection of the case in Natal, Paola Resende, said it looked like the woman did not generate enough antibodies to avoid getting infected again more than 90 days later.
Resende confirmed that the woman was infected by a separate strain of coronavirus the second time.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 01, 2021, 01:54:01 PM
The U.S. reaches 20 million cases. - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/the-us-reaches-20-million-cases.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 02, 2021, 12:29:43 AM
>20 million cases

And 350 thousand dead.

On the plus side, I know three people who have had the first shot of the vaccine (all nurses).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on January 05, 2021, 07:16:11 AM
new UK Lockdown
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55540679
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: grnidone on January 05, 2021, 05:57:28 PM
My sister is looking to go back to work in a nursing home just to get the covid shot.  I can't say I blame her.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 05, 2021, 07:00:56 PM
A friend just told me about two his childhood friends (someone I've heard of often, but I don't think I've ever met) who are self-described mild germaphobes. They nevertheless consented to a 10-person family Christmas dinner. Cousin didn't mention he was feeling sick. My friend texted me yesterday morning... by yesterday, everyone at the dinner had high fevers and positive Covid tests.

Then he texted me in the afternoon. His friends' father is dead. Family torn asunder. Christmas dinner will never be the same. Crap. I feel sick just thinking about it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 05, 2021, 07:05:57 PM
Here's another feel-bad holiday story:

Costume May Have Contributed To An Outbreak At California Hospital, Infecting 44

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/01/04/953287746/costume-may-have-contributed-to-an-outbreak-at-california-hospital-infecting-44
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 07, 2021, 06:53:39 AM
A small bit of good news amidst the gloom ...

My aunt has been declared to be recovered from covid. Her symptoms were mild.

One of the lucky ones.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 07, 2021, 11:29:37 AM
> My aunt

Thank you for that good news buckworks!  Bless her and you and yours.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on January 07, 2021, 12:52:52 PM
Twitch feed with covid data:
https://www.twitch.tv/killars
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 07, 2021, 05:03:48 PM
My aunt's care home lost 11 residents from the 64 that tested positive. 24 staff also tested positive but all have recovered and most are back at work. Battle-weary!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 07, 2021, 05:40:09 PM
Wow. 11 deaths out of 64 people. That's terrible. How is your aunt emotionally?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on January 07, 2021, 06:22:51 PM
Great news! What we need.  A bit of light :)
Although the figures are frightening.
Vaccines are rolling out fast across the world.  It will take some time, but Mum has it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 07, 2021, 06:47:46 PM
>> emotionally

There have been many difficult moments, but according to my cousin she still has her sense of humour and still cracks her own style of self-deprecating jokes. My other cousin was allowed to visit her at one point and even hold her hand but only after the home put them both in full hazmat gear.

Being isolated from family and friends makes the whole thing more difficult.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 09, 2021, 03:12:42 AM
No, actually the measures the airlines are taking are not enough

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/07/health/coronavirus-airline-passengers-outbreak.html

Quote
The new report, of a largely empty flight in the fall, details what can happen even when airlines and passengers are aware and more cautious about the risks. ...  five of the seven passengers who later tested positive had taken a test, and received a negative result, in the days before boarding.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 14, 2021, 11:27:46 PM
These states have done best — and worst — at vaccinating their residents against COVID-19

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-states/

Check out poor, backwards WV.  They turned to the National Guard for logistics & distribution.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 16, 2021, 05:39:51 PM
*Sigh*

Why America's vaccine rollout was a total disaster - and what it means for the next few months

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/why-americas-vaccine-rollout-total-161033703.html

<+>
Vaccines Promised This Week By Trump Administration Don’t Actually Exist - UNILAD
https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/vaccines-promised-this-week-by-trump-administration-dont-actually-exist/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 16, 2021, 06:32:23 PM
>>total disaster

I thought I posted this as its own thread, but apparently not

Quote
To put it simply: Worry less about whether the ideal population is getting vaccinated and more about actually vaccinating people.

“A massive vaccination campaign won’t work with our current fussy and intricate criteria for who gets a shot and when,” Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at Baylor College of Medicine, wrote. “We learned in 2020 that our health system simply cannot do complicated things.”
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/1/15/22229300/covid-19-vaccines-coronavirus-rollout-us-america

One big problem is information. People who are eligible have no idea how and where to get vaccinated. Overall, California has distributed 26% of the vaccine it has received. Some private individuals in CA have stepped in with fairly simple tech (first Google Sheets and now moved to Air Table) to provide a stop-gap solution where government seems unable.

How Californians are resorting to crowdsourcing to get their Covid-19 vaccine
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/1/15/22231241/california-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-moderna-pfizer

Resulting in this website
https://www.covid19vaccineca.com/vaccination-sites

But don't be too hard on us. Le Monde is full of articles about the slow vaccine rollout. For example
https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2021/01/15/les-pays-europeens-exasperes-par-les-retards-de-livraison-des-vaccins-pfizer-biontech_6066442_3244.html

It turns out that administering ten billion doses of vaccine quickly is going to be a problem.

If Biden meets his goal of 100,000,000 vaccinated within 100 days (April 30), that means that about 30% of us will be vaccinated by then.

16.5% of the US population is over 65. There's roughly another 6-8% of the population that are healthcare workers, parademics, military, law enforcement (my law enforcement friends are already getting vaccinated). So that's roughly 23%. Add in other essential workers and we're looking at the end of May most likely before everyone in the priority categories is vaccinated.

Then you still have to vaccinate the other 70% of the population.

Of course, there's the 30% who will refuse, so that moves all the timelines up accordingly.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 16, 2021, 07:26:32 PM
I'm old enough to remember both of the polio mass vaccination events, though I was too young to be aware of how the government informed the public about availability, clinics, and such.   What I do remember was going to the local middle school in the late afternoon or early evening and standing in a long, long, densely packed queue that extended for 2 or more long city blocks outside the big lunchroom on the school's first floor.  Inside, there were tables set up with a couple of people in white coats administering the vaccines. 

The first polio vaccine was a shot and the line took forever.  The repeat vaccine (a couple of years later) was by eating a sugar cube, so the process was a whole lot quicker.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 16, 2021, 07:54:26 PM
The first polio vaccine was a shot and the line took forever.  The repeat vaccine (a couple of years later) was by eating a sugar cube, so the process was a whole lot quicker.

Don't get Gary started on this one! You got switched from the Salk vaccine to the Sabin vaccine (as we all did, though I'm young enough to have only received the Sabin). Easier to administer and more effective, but also more likely than the Salk to actually *cause* polio instead of preventing it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 16, 2021, 08:43:14 PM
>> eating a sugar cube

I have a vague childhood memory of a sugar cube with a pink spot on it and someone saying that it was important. I've had no reason to think about that for decades, but the mental image is still in there!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 16, 2021, 08:45:17 PM
My in-laws were able to get their vaccine today.  My parents are one county over and it's a complete mess over there with thousands of seniors jamming the phone lines.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 16, 2021, 09:33:14 PM
>with a pink spot on it

I started to mention that pink spot.  I don't know why the image of that pink-spotted cube stuck in my mind so vividly.

>important
>Salk

I don't recall exactly which early elementary grade we were told about Dr. Salk but he was definitely portrayed as a hero.  Even little kids knew about Iron Lungs back then.

>complete mess

Same here in rural NC.  What a bureaucratic shitshow.

My nursing home admin daughter did get her first shot.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 16, 2021, 09:45:16 PM
We once went from having almost no Air Force to three years later having a single factory turning out a bomber ever hour with something like 450,000 parts and 350,000 rivets. That doesn't count the other factories turning out other aircraft. Of course, when the Willow Run plant started up, it was a complete mess too... it took several months to get it dialed.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on January 16, 2021, 11:04:40 PM
Once the vaccines are thawed, they must be used within hours. Social media groups are forming for those seeking "unused" end-of-day doses. Eligible recipients are reserving appointments at multiple providers. When appointments turn into no-shows, providers can either discard the dose or give it to someone waiting (regardless of eligibility). Young healthy people are taking advantage of the inefficiencies, receive the vaccine and reduce waste.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 17, 2021, 03:37:41 AM
My niece is a nurse who also volunteers at a vaccine clinic - she said that because of no-shows and not wanting to waste the vaccine, the first time it happened they were running around madly trying to find people to vaccinate so they wouldn't waste the vaccine. She told her dad that next time she volunteered he was to sit by his phone dressed and ready to leave the house when she texted if it looked like there would be extra.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 17, 2021, 11:56:56 AM
> no-shows

I saw an article last week about people not yet eligible in some state, hanging around vaccine centers at closing time hoping to get a jab if their was any left over vaccine.


It would be nice if the US would license and mass produce the Oxford vaccine which does not require the special ultra low freezing.  That is part of the bottleneck right now, we need to be able to walk into any pharmacy, fire house, clinic, etc. and get a jab.

All this laissez faire sh#t is slowing down the rollout.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 17, 2021, 03:18:40 PM
‘Little old West Virginia’ sets pace on vaccine rollout | Rock Hill Herald
https://www.heraldonline.com/news/article248570205.html

<+>
Worth a read.

"The crazy thing here is how much has gone right"

The crash landing of 'Operation Warp Speed'
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/17/crash-landing-of-operation-warp-speed-459892
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on January 19, 2021, 02:23:35 PM
Over 2 million world Deaths
Almost 400,000 US deaths
over 90,000 UK deaths.

over 95 million world cases recorded
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Meanwhile, the title of this thread sounds bad.... in the West its exactly what we are doing, and the Vaccine is of course not getting to poorer countries. I feel its a bit like being on an Aeroplane.  First, put on your own oxygen mask, but I still feel its a bit dirty, and there seems little talk about how to roll it out to the world.

Is it too big a task? 7 billion x2 ???
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 19, 2021, 04:28:05 PM
> Is it too big a task?

No, it can be done, but it isn't going to happen overnight and with some developed nations screwing up their own vaccination schemes it's going to take that much longer for aid to reach small countries.

1. It's hard for developed nations to help others when their own people are dying in droves and huge resources are being expended on their own sick.  Said inability maybe their own fault but 1st world nations still have to get their own house in order first before they can help others.

2. Our just in time, global supply chain is a major problem and bottleneck.  Example: disposable syringes and the little vials manufacturers put the vaccine in are mostly made in Asia - out of the developed countries control.  It's a real cl*ster feck and everyone seems to just be standing around scratching their backsides wondering what to do about it.  This is planning beyond the next fiscal quarter profit/loss so our corporations don't have a clue as to how to deal with it.

3. Lack of coherent political leadership and political will.  Contrast US/UK/EU response to NZ's response to their smaller neighbors.

4. Technology gap.  We have these wonderful, high tech vaccines but they require special high tech freezers that are rare in the  developed world and a challenge in our own rural areas let alone in remote 3rd world countries.

5. Antivaxx'ers, flat earthers, anti maskers, lawyers, kooks and other bottom feeders.

Hopefully, once we learn and solve stabilize the above 5 points we will help others.  In the meantime China is handing out vaccines as fast as they can and making political hay from it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on January 19, 2021, 07:32:27 PM
https://www.cityam.com/pfizer-to-temporarily-reduce-vaccine-deliveries-to-uk-and-eu/

Quote
   
Friday 15 January 2021 4:06 pm

Pfizer will temporarily reduce deliveries of its Covid vaccine to the UK and across Europe from next week, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH).
The move will mean countries will receive fewer vaccines than expected while the pharmaceutical giant upgrades its production capacity.
Pfizer told Norway this morning it would receive 18 per cent fewer doses than expected next week, according to Geir Bukholm, director of infection control at NIPH.
“This temporary reduction will affect all European countries,” he said. “It is as yet not precisely clear how long time it will take before Pfizer is up to maximum production capacity again.”

It comes as Pfizer upgrades its production capacity to meet international demand for its coronavirus vaccine. It will soon be able to produce 2bn vaccine doses per year — up from 1.3bn currently.
the bold is mine
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on January 19, 2021, 08:28:21 PM
https://bit.ly/3io7f2q
WHO just popped into my feed.

Quote
here will be enough vaccine for everyone. But right now, we must work together as one global family to prioritize those most at risk of severe diseases and death, in all countries.
For the past 9 months, the ACT Accelerator and the COVAX vaccines pillar have been laying the groundwork for the equitable distribution and deployment of vaccines.
We’ve overcome scientific barriers, legal barriers, logistical barriers and regulatory barriers.
We have secured 2 billion doses from five producers, with options on more than 1 billion more doses, and we aim to start deliveries in February.
I use this opportunity to thank Gavi and CEPI.
COVAX is ready to deliver what it was created for.
But in recent weeks I have heard from several Member States who have questioned whether COVAX will get the vaccines it needs, and whether high-income countries will keep the promises they have made.
As the first vaccines begin to be deployed, the promise of equitable access is at serious risk.
More than 39 million doses of vaccine have now been administered in at least 49 higher-income countries. Just 25 doses have been given in one lowest-income country. Not 25 million; not 25 thousand; just 25.
I need to be blunt: the world is on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure – and the price of this failure will be paid with lives and livelihoods in the world’s poorest countries.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 19, 2021, 09:27:33 PM
Sad, but thank you for sharing that. I had not seen it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 20, 2021, 11:27:34 PM
"tens of thousands of people who managed to get appointments for a first dose are seeing them canceled"


VIRUS TODAY: US states report COVID-19 vaccine shortage

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-pandemics-ap-top-news-10-things-to-know-coronavirus-pandemic-f1dd22888c8d15b8a2fc7302ca8de374
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 21, 2021, 06:26:04 PM
Covid vaccine: Can you stop wearing masks? Visit the grandkids? Avoid quarantine? Questions answered - syracuse.com

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2021/01/covid-vaccine-can-you-stop-wearing-masks-visit-the-grandkids-avoid-quarantine-questions-answered.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 21, 2021, 09:47:18 PM
Dr. Fauci says Covid vaccines appear to be less effective against some new strains
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccines-appear-to-be-less-effective-against-some-new-strains.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 21, 2021, 10:48:59 PM
Ambitious:
Biden vows to move ‘heaven and earth’ to get 100 million vaccinated in 100 days as he calls Trump effort a ‘dismal failure’ (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-live-covid-vaccine-plan-b1790912.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 22, 2021, 12:35:18 AM
I read somewhere today that the US is now averaging 914k/day.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 22, 2021, 02:21:54 AM
So, not that far off if sustainable.  Jen and I are at the end of the list here in California, so we are still looking at 2022 most likely.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 22, 2021, 05:52:49 PM
we are still looking at 2022 most likely.

You think it will be that long? Granted, California vaccination is a shambles generally so we may lag the average, but at 1 million per day and 30% of Americans who will turn it down, that means there is at most 229 million ahead of you. That would be September 6. At 1 million per day (if sustainable), that would mean every single person in the US would be vaccinated by Dec 15.

Interesting story here. We had 4 residents scheduled to receive their vaccine yesterday, but the road was closed. The sent a vaccine team to the closure point and met the four residents and vaccinated them in a parking lot. They are all in the 65+ category, but otherwise not high priority.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 22, 2021, 06:08:29 PM
Our National Guard / Regional Health unit vaccinated 2500 in 2 days.  And while this area isn't remote, it is an hour or more from more populous cities & suburbs.  Saying that our public health infrastructure is 'sparse' would be an understatement. (We have 2 nurses in the regional health department licensed to administer injections. Two!)    So, it feels like 1m/day should be achievable once we get our collective asses in gear.

US coronavirus: The US can vaccinate up to 85% of adults and begin a return to normal by fall, Fauci says - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 22, 2021, 06:27:39 PM
>You think it will be that long?

I didn't figure in the  anti-vaxers, but Dec 15 is still pretty far away.  In California heathy and non-essential workers adults under 65 are at the end of the line.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 22, 2021, 07:01:53 PM
You're under 50 right? I just learned that I *am* a priority group - Group 1C gives priority to people age 50-64.
https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccines/#California's-vaccination-plan

The big deadline for me is that I am scheduled to teach a graduate workshop starting July 10. If it's not looking good to get vaccinated by June 1, I will attempt to get classified as an educator or get the class canceled.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: DrCool on January 22, 2021, 10:20:53 PM
My parents just got their first shots this morning. I was scared they wouldn't get vaccinated but their doctor pretty much told them they are getting it and thankfully they listened.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 22, 2021, 10:28:34 PM
I'm glad they did Doc!

>You're under 50 right?

49

>educator

Let us know what happens.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 22, 2021, 11:54:49 PM
>educator

Let us know what happens.

I won't say anything yet. I don't want to jump in front of a teacher who is doing in-person classes this spring (if any are).
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 23, 2021, 04:49:43 PM
California now ranks dead last in administering COVID-19 vaccines
https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-COVID-vaccine-rank-states-numbers-last-15890734.php

Hodgepodge systems, confusion mar California vaccine rollout
https://www.macon.com/news/article248717460.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 24, 2021, 02:32:07 PM
US doses > 1m/day now

Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-19-vaccination-doses?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 24, 2021, 10:32:25 PM
'People who have received their first vaccine dose can schedule their second shot up to six weeks later if they are not able to get one in the recommended time frame, according to updated guidance from the CDC. "We're just ensuring clinicians that if they can't do it at exactly 21 days or 28 days, that there's leeway or flexibility,"'

Lack of vaccine supply could hinder distribution after first 100 million shots, CDC director says - U.S. - Stripes
https://www.stripes.com/news/us/lack-of-vaccine-supply-could-hinder-distribution-after-first-100-million-shots-cdc-director-says-1.659708
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 25, 2021, 12:08:23 PM
> supply

I keep thinking we need to use the Defense production act and start manufacturing something like the Oxford jab here in the US under license.  Something like the Oxford vaccine could be shipped to every pharmacy in the country.

I do think the new Admin. will use the production act to get N95 PPE and components made here in the US.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 27, 2021, 04:13:42 PM
>25-01-2020, 14:07:05

This thread is over a year old.

<+ Recap>
Reuters: Global coronavirus cases surpass 100 million. Almost 1.3% of the world's population has now been infected with COVID-19 and more than 2.1 million people have died.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on January 27, 2021, 05:25:02 PM
My aunt who had covid died yesterday.

She had been declared as recovered, so I don't know if she'll be counted as a covid death or something else.

It surely wouldn't have helped ...

:-(
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on January 27, 2021, 05:33:56 PM
My aunt who had covid died yesterday.

She had been declared as recovered, so I don't know if she'll be counted as a covid death or something else.

It surely wouldn't have helped ...

:-(

Oh so sorry to hear that.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on January 27, 2021, 06:11:35 PM
Sorry, BW.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on January 27, 2021, 07:27:05 PM
I'm so sorry to hear that.

The same thing happened with a friend's mother-in-law. Declared recovered, seemed to be doing well and then suddenly got bad convulsions and a day later she was gone.

So much sadness.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on January 27, 2021, 08:38:12 PM
So sorry to hear that buckworks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on January 27, 2021, 08:55:05 PM
Sorry Buckworks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 05, 2021, 06:49:59 PM
With contagion still frustratingly high, Israel discovers the limits of vaccines | The Times of Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-infections-still-frustratingly-high-israel-discovers-limits-of-vaccines/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 07, 2021, 06:24:33 PM
When will the vaccine be widely available.

ABC has a nice calculator if you're Australian. No idea how accurate it is
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-05/when-will-you-get-the-covid-19-vaccine/13112610

Bloomberg has a nice tracker for the US, down to the state level
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

California has a tracker at the county level and the ability to sign up to get notified.
https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccines/

In the US, the buzz says late spring early summer for general availability and 12-14 months to vaccinate 75% of the population
https://www.prevention.com/health/a34701430/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-release-date/

Bloomberg agrees with that, but considering all regions, it says that at current rates it will take seven years to vaccinate our way to "normal"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-04/when-will-covid-pandemic-end-near-me-vaccine-coverage-calculator
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 10, 2021, 11:09:11 PM
"Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID-19"

Fully vaccinated people can skip Covid quarantines, CDC says
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/10/health/covid-vaccinated-quarantine-cdc-guidance/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on February 10, 2021, 11:44:15 PM
>Fully vaccinated people can skip Covid quarantines

Wow, that's encouraging.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 11, 2021, 07:37:25 PM
India is betting on glitchy software to inoculate 300 million people by August
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/02/10/1017860/india-covid-vaccine-cowin-software/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 11, 2021, 08:58:25 PM
figures suggest vaccination campaign is reducing morbidity rates

More younger Israelis now being hospitalized for COVID than those 60-plus | The Times of Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-younger-israelis-now-being-hospitalized-for-covid-than-those-60-plus/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 13, 2021, 06:13:26 PM
Oxford University to test COVID-19 vaccine response among children for first time | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/healthcoronavirus-vaccine-astrazeneca/oxford-university-to-test-covid-19-vaccine-response-among-children-for-first-time-idUSL1N2KI227

------

Fauci says 1st graders could have access to vaccines by September.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: buckworks on February 14, 2021, 12:26:22 AM
The Vaccine Had to Be Used. He Used It. He Was Fired.
Ten doses of the Covid-19 vaccine would expire within hours, so a Houston doctor gave it to people with medical conditions, including his wife. What followed was “the lowest moment in my life,” Dr. Hasan Gokal said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/us/houston-doctor-fired-covid-vaccine.html

I bet the story would have been different if he had a "mainstream ethnic" sounding name. :-(
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 15, 2021, 11:12:54 PM
I've been struggling with this one myself.  Relaxing about surface areas would greatly simplify life in my household.

COVID-19 rarely spreads through surfaces. So why are we still deep cleaning? (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 15, 2021, 11:37:06 PM
>Relaxing about surface areas

That is what we're going to do to phase in our lifestyle changes after vaccination.  We will, however, likely keep ozoning fresh vegetables but that is for listeria, salmonella, & e. coli.  It's easy and we have a couple of O3 vegetable bubblers that we like a lot.

Because I am likely to have a weakened immune-response even with the vaccine, we intend to keep practicing modified social distancing and I will likely be picky about which businesses and buildings I enter. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on February 16, 2021, 09:35:26 AM
Good article. I was behind the curve on that one, thanks.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 16, 2021, 05:38:47 PM
>>surface areas

I feel like we've known that from very early on.

I think the evidence is stronger and stronger that there is almost no transmission from casual outdoor passing. I read/heard one epidemiologist recently say that there were no documented cases of outdoor transmission except in cases of close conversation or where there was also an indoor component.

The context was that people have so much energy and vigilance and s/he was arguing that people should shut up already about joggers without masks. Unless you stop to yell at each other, they are not going to give you Covid.

So her/his message, like many others, is to be hyper-vigilant about indoor situations and close conversation, but relax about surfaces and outdoor situations.

But if people want to be hyper vigilant, good on them. We visited some friends the other day who are quite concerned and we sat in their yard a full 20 feet away wearing masks. I think that's more precaution than necessary, but it's a tiny effort that I'm happy to make if it makes my friends comfortable.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 16, 2021, 05:47:07 PM
TL;DR: if people are close and talking and hanging around and waiting in line to pay for produce at a farmer's market, you are at risk no matter where you are, albeit much lower risk outdoors. If you are out for a walk in the park and people are not wearing masks and passing you on the path, the risk is virtually zero.


Quote
For example, in a study of 7,324 Chinese case reports, only two — part of the same transmission event — could be linked to outdoor settings. A database of more than 20,000 cases (including the 7,324 Chinese cases) found 461 that were associated with transmission in completely outdoor environments — predominantly crowded events like markets and rallies.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-summer-of-covid-19-taught-scientists-about-indoor-vs-outdoor-transmission/


Quote
In an analysis of 25,000 cases, which has not yet been independently reviewed, six percent of cases were linked to environments with an outdoor element, such as sporting events or concerts.

These were enclosed areas where social distancing was not observed, or where people stayed for a while, moving around and talking loudly or singing.

"There were virtually no cases that we could identify that took place in sort of everyday life outdoors," study author Mike Weed, a professor and researcher at Canterbury Christ Church University, told AFP.

Quote
The situations he found where clusters were associated with outdoor transmission tended to be times when people were, as Weed put it, “invited or required to break natural social distance.” These event-specific behaviors might help explain why Weed found clusters associated with farmers’ markets, where people crowd around the stalls, but not with people just hanging out in the park.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-coronavirus-rare-impossible.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 16, 2021, 05:58:31 PM
>will likely be picky about which businesses and buildings I enter

>outdoors

To be clear, I am not the hyper-vigilant one in our duo.  In fact, the hyper-vigilant one keeps calling me a 'window licker' or 'railing licker' ...but that's on her scale.  In reality, I rank myself as pretty good with this avoidance stuff.  But even I balk when I'm thinking about going inside public buildings.  A Lowes or IKEA seem ok -cavernous enough to feel like I'm outdoors- but cozy restaurants are going to be off-limits.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 16, 2021, 08:44:52 PM
Somewhere I thought I already posted the link, but I don't think I did. There was an article in a reputable source about whether or not people who have been vaccinated can transmit the disease (BBC maybe?).

The article started with a story of a mumps outbreak a few years back and a Jewish school (not a yeshiva, but similar). Basically, patient zero was a kid who had had the full course of vaccinations. In this setting the students pair up and discuss/debate the Torah face to face across a small table. Over the course of a few days before realizing he was sick, patient zero infected a bunch of other kids who all went home and infected their families. I think the total tally was over 250 infections.

Anyway, the point of that story was that even though patient zero was vaccinated:
1. he got sick
2. he created a significant outbreak.

All that to say that I think vaccination means you can relax some, but it does not mean the world becomes a free for all.

At a certain point, the risk reaches a point where we agree that it's acceptable. But with your kidneys that's a much different point that for someone with my kidneys.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 16, 2021, 08:49:09 PM
Found the article
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19

I found this very helpful
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 16, 2021, 09:00:56 PM
Meanwhile, for the long term...

WORLD’S FIRST TRANSPARENT FDA REGISTERED, N100 SMART MASK WITH UV-C STERILIZING THAT SHOWS-OFF YOUR SMILE
https://www.yankodesign.com/2021/02/13/worlds-first-transparent-fda-registered-n100-smart-mask-with-uv-c-sterilizing-that-shows-off-your-smile
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 16, 2021, 09:10:07 PM
On the vaccine and the variants, a YT video, but short and to the point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXSqcCYMFE4&list=PLsNB4peY6C6IQediwz2GzMTNvm_dMzr47&index=3
(the rest of the playlist is worth watching too)

Key Points:
UK variant looks to be 35% deadlier as well as more contagious. It will be the dominant strain in the US by March.  Biontech vaccine seems to work against the UK variant.

The current vaccines are likely less effective against the South African & Brazilian variants.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 18, 2021, 12:09:15 AM
Pfizer, Moderna vaccines can protect against coronavirus variant, lab studies suggest - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-south-africa-variant/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on February 18, 2021, 02:29:31 AM
That's good news.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2021, 12:48:55 AM
95 per cent of over 70s in Great Britain given vaccine | New Scientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-95-per-cent-of-over-70s-in-great-britain-given-vaccine/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 21, 2021, 03:28:49 AM
Double masking reduces exposure by 83%

Quote
When the source was unmasked and the receiver was fitted with the double mask or the knotted and tucked medical procedure mask, the receiver’s cumulative exposure was reduced by 83.0% (SD = 0.15) and 64.5% (SD = 0.03), respectively.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7007e1.htm?s_cid=mm7007e1_w

So wearing a surgical mask + a cloth mask is about as effective as getting the J&J vaccine. When I go to Costco or a place like that, I double mask with an N95 + cloth (because my N95s are left over from construction projects and have valves). So that's got to be close to being as protective as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ukgimp on February 21, 2021, 09:21:08 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN2AK0NC

95% less Covid illness with 2 x Pfizer
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 21, 2021, 03:23:01 PM

IIRC, 85% less Covid illness with 1 x Pfizer.

I'm expecting Moderna to be the same. I've read there is only a 1 ingredient difference between pfizer and moderna. And -so far- just about every research result released by pfizer has been matched by moderna a week or so later.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 22, 2021, 07:11:01 PM
>IIRC, 85% less Covid illness with 1 x Pfizer.

UK study finds one dose of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine reduces risk of infection by 72% - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/22/health/uk-phe-study-pfizer-biontech-intl-gbr/index.html

-----------

COVID vaccines compared in 1 table: Effectiveness, side effects, more
https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccines-compared-vaccine-pfizer-oxford-moderna-astrazeneca-side-effects-2021-2

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on February 22, 2021, 08:00:59 PM
Quote
Not 65+ in some countries
  Someone suggested  Marcon Should retract that today on the BBC
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 22, 2021, 10:50:30 PM
US Passes 500,000 Covid Deaths: Johns Hopkins Tracker
https://theglobepost.com/2021/02/22/us-passes-500000-covid-deaths/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on February 25, 2021, 07:41:02 PM
U.S. administers 68.3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines - CDC | Financial Post
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/u-s-administers-68-3-mln-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines-cdc
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on February 28, 2021, 06:11:45 PM
The disease-resistant patients exposing Covid-19's weak spots
Some people are unusually resilient to the coronavirus, so scientists are now searching their genes and blood in the hope of finding the pandemic's Achilles' heel.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210219-the-covid-resistant-patients-e-the-viruss-weak-spots

Also discusses factors that seem to drive severe cases in otherwise healthy young people
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 02, 2021, 02:25:48 AM
Huge number of COVID infections are from people with no symptoms
https://www.futurity.org/covid-19-infections-non-symptomatic-cases-2525272

Quote
During the initial wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in New York City, only between one in five and one in seven cases of the virus was symptomatic, according to new research.

Researchers also found that non-symptomatic cases substantially contribute to community transmission, making up at least 50% of the driving force of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 02, 2021, 09:07:09 PM
Texas becomes biggest US state to lift COVID-19 mask mandate

https://apnews.com/article/texas-lifts-covid-19-mask-mandate-ed7cd1b065a1afd71175f255fb5148aa
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on March 03, 2021, 11:42:39 PM
China makes COVID-19 anal swabs mandatory for foreigners
https://nypost.com/2021/03/03/china-makes-covid-19-anal-swabs-mandatory-for-foreigners/

Japan asks China to stop anal tests on its citizens
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56245404
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 03, 2021, 11:56:31 PM
reddit, 5 months ago.

I thought it was a Nasal swab.
https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/inbei3/and_i_thought_it_was_a_nasal_swab/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 04, 2021, 07:23:29 AM
Another reason Why India appears to have done well:

https://www.ft.com/content/7db2b641-c831-4876-ba0c-0f815a42c8f0

Stark link between obesity and Covid deaths revealed
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 05, 2021, 12:14:29 AM
US vax rate > 2m/day
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 07, 2021, 12:24:37 AM
AstraZeneca to seek US FDA approval.

https://news.yahoo.com/astrazeneca-exec-ready-supply-tens-204545234.html

Quote
50 million doses


If approved this would be the 4th vaccine available in US.  Canada has already approved Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and J&J although they are in short supply.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 07, 2021, 02:54:43 AM
I am not sure the vaccine formulations are going to be able to keep up with the variants with so many places opening back up.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2021, 03:23:26 PM
Covid: CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized were overweight or obese

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-cdc-study-finds-roughly-78percent-of-people-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html

yeah, but...

71.6% of adults aged 20 and over are overweight, including obesity. (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2017-2018; Harvard School of Public Health, 2020)

https://www.singlecare.com/blog/news/obesity-statistics/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 09, 2021, 03:51:14 PM
Total number of vaccine doses administered by country.
https://old.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/m156t5/total_number_of_vaccine_doses_administered/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on March 09, 2021, 05:17:05 PM
That link in the comments is interesting
https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1369256982666960900?s=21

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwCTzRuXMAY-o90?format=png)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 11, 2021, 07:02:20 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56342303

Quote
Stop Whining:

What's the situation in Brazil?

On Wednesday, the country recorded 2,286 Covid deaths, a new daily record.

According to Fiocruz, 15 state capitals have intensive care units (ICUs) that are at more than 90% capacity including Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

Some reports say Brasilia has now reached full ICU capacity, while two cities - Porto Alegre and Campo Grande - have exceeded capacity.

In its report, the institute warned that figures point to the "overload and even collapse of health systems".
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2021, 12:53:35 AM
Biden says he's going to open vaccines to all adults on May 1, LM.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 12, 2021, 02:52:13 AM
Yeah, that's great news!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 12, 2021, 03:24:35 AM
New vaccine applying for emergency use.  Novavax

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-confirms-high-levels-efficacy-against-original-and

2 jabs. Does not require super cold freezers.  See news release for effectiveness.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 12, 2021, 10:56:22 PM
US average now 2.3 million shots/day

<+>

US has done 100 million shots
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2021, 12:52:24 PM
"a healthcare worker traveled one month after receiving both vaccine doses. The person and their travel partner had no symptoms and took the pre-travel test to come home. They did not get the test results until they landed, where they learned they were positive

none of the vaccinated people who caught COVID-19 became severely ill and they did not transmit it to anyone else"

DOH confirms 3 vaccinated Hawaii residents tested positive for COVID-19
https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/doh-confirms-3-vaccinated-hawaii-residents-tested-positive-for-covid-19/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2021, 01:11:39 PM
<+>

All over-40s in the UK will be offered a Covid vaccine by Easter, the Telegraph has reported.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 17, 2021, 02:26:38 PM
NHS England invites all over-50s to book in for Covid vaccination
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 19, 2021, 04:39:24 AM
UNC Health: Pro Tip to Help Your Earloop Mask Fit More Tightly (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UANi8Cc71A0)

Double Masking Can Get Tricky. Here’s an Easy Way to Do It Right. (https://www.nytimes.com/article/double-masking-tips-coronavirus.html)



Looks like the  B.1.1.7 variant is about to explode in the US.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2021, 05:08:00 AM
>explode

Yeah, I'm relying on this;

"none of the vaccinated people who caught COVID-19 became severely ill and they did not transmit it to anyone else"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 19, 2021, 11:43:59 PM
>explode

Europe's third coronavirus wave has arrived
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/europes-third-coronavirus-wave-has-arrived.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 20, 2021, 06:47:17 PM
Fauci: COVID-19 variant likely accounts for up to 30 percent of US infections | TheHill
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/544153-fauci-covid-19-variant-likely-accounts-for-up-to-30-percent-of-us


U.S. administers 107.1 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines: CDC | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cdc-idUSKBN2B60KE
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 21, 2021, 01:11:45 PM
Britain says it has given half of all adults a first COVID-19 shot | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain/britain-says-it-has-given-half-of-all-adults-a-first-covid-19-shot-idUSL8N2LI0A5
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on March 23, 2021, 11:01:18 AM
Got my jab tomorrow and stupidly been reading about AstraZeneca in the news.
What happens if it turns out that it makes the human population infertile in 10 years time!! (yes, I've watched way too many Sci-Fi films)
I'm being silly, I know I am and I'm trying to joke about it as I'm a little nervous now ::) :-[ but the news outlets really do not help!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: nffc on March 23, 2021, 11:53:17 AM
>I'm being silly, I know I am

Yes, man up take your jabs.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on March 23, 2021, 12:38:45 PM
Oh, I will, it's just this annoying feeling won't go. I need to go on a personal media blackout until after
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 23, 2021, 01:24:56 PM
>AstraZeneca

I think a good part of this AstraZeneca negative media is driven by political posturing by EU and UK.  Get the jab and quit worrying.  You need to shore up your defenses now, and with literally millions of AstraZeneca jabs given with no real issues there just isn't a concerning risk.

I've had a full course of Moderna but will probably buy the Johnson & Johnson single shot in a couple of months.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 23, 2021, 03:18:03 PM
> political posturing by EU

I agree on this and the media are being used in a disinformation campaign IMHO.  I'm not sure who is behind (AZ's competitors,  EU functionaries trying to cover up their own ineptness, or Russians trying to drive wedges) it but I find it odd that UK can administer millions of jabs and not had a problem while various EU states administer a few thousand and start claiming 8 deaths in the media.  My BS detector is going off.

And all this while the EU is claiming they are being shorted jabs when the reality is they have only used one-half the AZ jabs they have sitting in warehouses.

Moreover, Canada has already approved 4 jabs for their population (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AZ) if they can get them.  The EU has still not approved that many because they are waiting on their bureaucrats. 

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on March 23, 2021, 04:53:56 PM
> political posturing by EU

I agree on this and the media are being used in a disinformation campaign IMHO.  I'm not sure who is behind (AZ's competitors,  EU functionaries trying to cover up their own ineptness, or Russians trying to drive wedges) it but I find it odd that UK can administer millions of jabs and not had a problem while various EU states administer a few thousand and start claiming 8 deaths in the media.  My BS detector is going off.

And all this while the EU is claiming they are being shorted jabs when the reality is they have only used one-half the AZ jabs they have sitting in warehouses.

Moreover, Canada has already approved 4 jabs for their population (Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AZ) if they can get them.  The EU has still not approved that many because they are waiting on their bureaucrats.

All well said. The EU Politicians keep changing their mind about what is wrong with it..... yet in the UK... the answer is NOTHING.  Covid is what the problem is. And this:
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210126-humiliation-french-see-covid-19-vaccine-flops-as-sign-of-decline
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 24, 2021, 02:36:23 AM
According to the BBC stats show More or Less, the expected number of blood clots in a population of 5,000,000 is 95 per week. The observed number among 5,000,000 recipients of the AZ vaccine was 30. I know not all blood clots are equal, but that 30 number is the topline number you see in every article.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 24, 2021, 10:08:32 AM
IMHO, the first mistake was the EU put the EU in charge of vaccines.  This is rule by committee and faceless bureaucrats which pretty much sucks during an emergency because nobody is in charge.  The EU just cannot move fast in a crisis.  The fastest they ever moved was when they beat up on   bailed out Greece and that took many weeks and ultimately Germany had to step in and cut through the BS.

I'm not saying the EU bureaucracy is always bad, just that they cannot respond to emergencies at anything faster than a glacial pace.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 24, 2021, 05:48:28 PM
India: 'Double Mutant' COVID Variant Is Found
https://www.newser.com/story/304070/double-mutant-covid-variant-is-found.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Chunkford on March 24, 2021, 06:09:22 PM
Well, I had it. Was nothing to worry about at all.
What was worrying is we got talking and they mentioned they've been getting a lot more cancellations recently.
I was meant to be in a group of 4 but there was only me and someone else.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 24, 2021, 06:15:16 PM
Thumbs up!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 24, 2021, 07:59:50 PM
Good job Chunkford.  Still waiting for my chance to step in line here.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 24, 2021, 08:59:38 PM
Good job Chunkford!
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 24, 2021, 11:23:57 PM
US: Michigan sees ‘alarming increase’ in COVID-19 hospitalizations among unvaccinated adults

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/03/michigan-sees-alarming-increase-in-covid-19-hospitalizations-among-unvaccinated-adults.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2021, 12:46:35 PM
US: Officials say 89 fully-vaccinated Minnesotans tested positive for COVID-19

"may sound alarming, but health officials say not when you consider
more than 800,000 people have been fully vaccinated."

"That's well below one-tenth of one percent, an incredibly small
number of cases,"


https://www.kare11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/officials-say-89-fully-vaccinated-minnesotans-tested-positive-for-covid-19/89-52279aa0-646f-4bc2-80d4-95707ac482cd
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 25, 2021, 07:43:08 PM
California to expand vaccine eligibility to everyone 16 and older starting April 15, as supplies increase.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 26, 2021, 05:25:11 PM
CDC director warns of possible Covid surge as U.S. cases increase by 7%

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/cdc-director-warns-of-possible-covid-surge-as-us-cases-increase-by-7percent.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 26, 2021, 05:53:01 PM
Indiana is opening up on April 6, 2021 - dropping the mask mandate.  I think it's too soon, especially for the dropping the masks, I'd wait another month, but nobody asked me.  :-)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 27, 2021, 12:12:28 PM
NC to open COVID vaccines to 16-year-olds April 7


Brazil hits record 100,000 coronavirus cases in a day, piling pressure on Bolsonaro | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-idINKBN2BH3ID


Covid-19 cases are rising. States are opening up anyway.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/covid-19-cases-are-rising-states-are-opening-up-anyway/ar-BB1f0Gej
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 27, 2021, 07:49:37 PM
Hey Brad, when do you think Indiana should get rid of the mask mandate?

Just trying to tie up a loose end ;-)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on March 27, 2021, 09:22:55 PM
1 - 2 months minimum. 

Indiana Governor is facing a state house full of flat earthers that want to take his emergency powers away and he is preempting them by dropping the mask mandate early.  It's all about politics and not about science.  To his credit, the Governor has been pretty good through this whole pandemic but he gave in on this one.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on March 27, 2021, 10:02:47 PM
Mask mandates only really impact bars and restaurants, seems like an easy thing to live with to save lives.  What percentage of dead in the US are due to the politicization of wearing a mask?

Surely the largest economy in the world is capable of policies to keep bars and restaurants afloat until everyone is vaccinated?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on March 28, 2021, 02:23:47 AM
According to the French Agence nationale de sécurité du médicament regarding the AstraZeneca vaccine

Quote
"Nine cases of thrombosis of the large veins, atypical by their location [mainly cerebral, but also digestive], which may be associated with thrombocytopenia [the decrease in the number of platelets in the blood] or with coagulation disorders have been declared" , six more than the previous week... [ANSM statement said': "The very atypical nature of these thromboses, their similar clinical pictures and the homogeneous time to onset lead the monitoring committee to confirm the very rare occurrence of this thrombotic risk in people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine. ",

But on balance they say the risk/reward calc comes down in favor of keeping the vaccine in distribution

https://www.lemonde.fr/sante/article/2021/03/26/vaccin-astrazeneca-l-existence-d-un-risque-rare-de-thrombose-confirmee-par-l-agence-nationale-de-securite-du-medicament_6074628_1651302.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 29, 2021, 01:24:24 PM
kachoww!

Texas set to make vaccines available to all adults on Monday
https://www.click2houston.com/news/texas/2021/03/28/texas-set-to-make-vaccines-available-to-all-adults-on-monday/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 30, 2021, 01:13:50 AM
Colorado will open vaccine eligibility to all Coloradans 16 and older on April 2
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on March 30, 2021, 03:09:50 PM
CDC Says 36% Of Adults Have Received 1 Dose Of Vaccine

SC opens vaccine to all adults Mar 31

Covid Cases Surge as Americans Drop Their Guard & Travel More
https://www.newsandguts.com/covid-cases-surge-as-americans-drop-their-guard-travel-more/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 01, 2021, 12:11:19 AM
Mysterious Ailment, Mysterious Relief: Vaccines Help Some COVID Long-Haulers

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/03/31/982799452/mysterious-ailment-mysterious-relief-vaccines-help-some-covid-long-haulers
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 01, 2021, 01:52:52 AM
Below is the timeline for when states have said they will open vaccination eligibility to the general public:
-- March 9: Alaska
-- March 16: Mississippi
-- March 22: West Virginia
-- March 24: Utah and certain state-run sites in Arizona
-- March 25: Georgia
-- March 29: Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio, North Dakota, Louisiana and Kansas
-- March 30: Minnesota, Arkansas
-- March 31: Indiana, South Carolina
-- April 1: Montana, Connecticut
-- April 2: New Hampshire, Colorado
-- April 5: Michigan, Tennessee, Idaho, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin
-- April 6: New York, Delaware
-- April 7: North Carolina
-- April 9: Missouri
-- April 12: Illinois, Kentucky
-- April 15: California, Washington
-- April 18: Virginia
-- April 19: Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania
-- April 27: Maryland
-- April, no set date: New Mexico, Virginia, Wyoming
-- May 1: Oregon, South Dakota, Nebraska, Hawaii,Alabama, New Jersey
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 01, 2021, 04:19:37 PM
Roughly 70% percent of individuals age 65 or older have now received their first Covid shot, and 43% are fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 01, 2021, 06:29:26 PM
There is a lot of local variation in that list. I know that in more states than one, some counties are opening vaccination earlier. I was reading about one state where every county but two was at a lower tier than the state.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 02, 2021, 10:22:15 PM
Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33532807/

Quote
These data indicate that there were 4.8 ( 95% CI: 2.8-6.8 ) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 03, 2021, 12:24:28 AM
U.S. administers nearly 154 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines: CDC | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N2LU44I
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on April 07, 2021, 04:29:51 AM
Nearly half of new US virus infections are in just 5 states (https://apnews.com/article/nearly-half-us-coronavirus-infections-come-from-5-states-53888dc78894cc76cb1bb50f8300f102)

New York, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 07, 2021, 07:24:04 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56657818

Covid: Brazil has more than 4,000 deaths in 24 hours for first time
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 07, 2021, 03:34:56 PM
I saw a headline that said the US hit 3m/day vax rate.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on April 07, 2021, 06:07:58 PM
Re: Brazil

"Biological Fukushima"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14567615/brazil-covid-plague-biological-fukushima-mutant-strains/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 07, 2021, 09:59:02 PM
AstraZeneca vaccine

Quote
But Britain’s officials, armed as usual with some nifty charts for their televised briefing, said that for people under 30 the risks and benefits from the vaccine were “finely balanced”, so a different jab may be preferable.

Risk from Covid is lower, while risk of clotting seems higher.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/04/07/with-millions-vaccinated-rare-side-effects-of-jabs-are-emerging

EMA = European Medicine Agency

Quote
The EMA’s data as of March 22nd suggested that the rate of brain clots in people under the age of 60 who had had Astra­Zeneca’s vaccine was one in 100,000.... Estimates of the [background] incidence of such brain clots have ranged from 0.22 to 1.57 cases per 100,000 people per year, and they are more common in younger people and women.

Quote
As doctors began to look more closely, something curious emerged. Many patients with suspected clots from the vaccine had unusually low levels of platelets. ... With this new information to hand, Britain’s medical regulators searched their data on vaccinated people for the unusual tandem of clots and low platelet counts. They found four cases per million people vaccinated, a rate several times lower than in the EU. One explanation is that Britain... had used the jab primarily in older people. ...

It resembles a condition seen in some people who are given heparin, a drug used widely to treat blood clots. For unknown reasons, some people develop an immune reaction to heparin, which results in blood clotting so profound that it depletes their platelets. The same reaction appears to be provoked by the vaccine.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 08, 2021, 05:21:16 AM
AstraZeneca vaccine

Quote
But Britain’s officials, armed as usual with some nifty charts for their televised briefing, said that for people under 30 the risks and benefits from the vaccine were “finely balanced”, so a different jab may be preferable.

Risk from Covid is lower, while risk of clotting seems higher.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/04/07/with-millions-vaccinated-rare-side-effects-of-jabs-are-emerging

EMA = European Medicine Agency

Quote
The EMA’s data as of March 22nd suggested that the rate of brain clots in people under the age of 60 who had had Astra­Zeneca’s vaccine was one in 100,000.... Estimates of the [background] incidence of such brain clots have ranged from 0.22 to 1.57 cases per 100,000 people per year, and they are more common in younger people and women.

Quote
As doctors began to look more closely, something curious emerged. Many patients with suspected clots from the vaccine had unusually low levels of platelets. ... With this new information to hand, Britain’s medical regulators searched their data on vaccinated people for the unusual tandem of clots and low platelet counts. They found four cases per million people vaccinated, a rate several times lower than in the EU. One explanation is that Britain... had used the jab primarily in older people. ...

It resembles a condition seen in some people who are given heparin, a drug used widely to treat blood clots. For unknown reasons, some people develop an immune reaction to heparin, which results in blood clotting so profound that it depletes their platelets. The same reaction appears to be provoked by the vaccine.

As I understand it the risk of clotting from HRT is still much much higher, and the risk of a bleed from taking asprin is also massively higher.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 09, 2021, 01:38:39 PM
One-Fourth of All U.S. Adults Are Fully Vaccinated: CDC
https://www.mediaite.com/news/one-fourth-of-all-u-s-adults-are-fully-vaccinated-cdc/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 17, 2021, 05:25:01 PM
38.5 percent of the US population have received at least one shot. Over 80 million adults—24 percent of the US population—are now fully vaccinated.

<marker>
Worldwide COVID-19 death toll tops a staggering 3 million
https://www.local10.com/news/2021/04/17/worldwide-covid-19-death-toll-tops-a-staggering-3-million/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 19, 2021, 07:23:02 PM
Meanwhile...

Non-stop cremations cast doubt on India's counting of COVID dead | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/non-stop-cremations-cast-doubt-indias-counting-covid-dead-2021-04-19/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 19, 2021, 10:40:07 PM
Ontario: "Unless you have a 70% chance of surviving your intubation/resuscitation and ICU care you will be allowed to die. This is coming from Critical Care Services Ontario in the days ahead. We've all been put on notice."

https://twitter.com/drbarbking/status/1384136625362333704
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 21, 2021, 01:13:54 PM
U.S. vaccination pace holds above 3 million shots per day for two weeks straight
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on April 21, 2021, 01:52:38 PM
U.S. vaccination pace holds above 3 million shots per day for two weeks straight

I read a headline today that some US states have a problem of a surplus of vaccines.

I think we are nearing the point where we need to be thinking about sharing some of our vaccine stockpiles with neighbors and allies who are in dire need and also engage in some vaccine diplomacy for the common good, provided that all US dependencies have been provided for.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Rupert on April 23, 2021, 05:52:55 AM
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/is-the-uk-close-to-herd-immunity
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 23, 2021, 12:51:40 PM
COVID-19 survivors have increased risk of death six months after diagnosis, study finds

https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/coronavirus/covid-19-survivors-have-increased-risk-of-death-six-months-after-diagnosis-study-finds/article_afa7c9b6-76e8-5290-b850-ab9571b9d327.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 23, 2021, 04:52:54 PM
India: Hospitals buckle under record surge - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56858403


https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-04-21&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~IND
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on April 25, 2021, 09:39:08 PM
What's happening in India is horrific.

According to the BBC stats show More or Less, there will almost certainly be more Covid deaths in 2021 than in 2020. India is a big driver in that fact. The deaths per capita are still way below the UK and the US, but 1. it has a population of 1.4b and 2. it is believed that lots of Covid cases and deaths are undiagnosed b/c of the limits of the Indian medical system
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: BoL on April 26, 2021, 09:24:28 AM
>India

Saw some of the BBC coverage on that. The scary part is that the cases are still spiking so fatalities will inevitably rise.

Read a fair bit of vaccine nationalism in the UK (particularly wrt to the EU to justify Brexit apparently), hopefully the wider world population can quickly catch up with the %s seen in UK, Israel and the US.

India sittiing on about 10% of its population vaccinated. Must be a huge operation to vaccination ~1B adults.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 26, 2021, 06:13:19 PM
>India

Covid in India: Photos show the deadly toll as infections top 17 million

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/photos-show-the-deadly-toll-of-covid-in-india-as-coronavirus-cases-top-17-million.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 27, 2021, 01:10:49 PM
Rich countries close their eyes to the global Covid surge at their own peril

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/27/rich-countries-covid-pandemic-death-developing-nations
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 27, 2021, 05:49:06 PM
CDC says fully vaccinated Americans can go without masks outdoors, except in crowded settings
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 27, 2021, 08:14:39 PM
CDC: 141,751,857 people had received at least one dose while 96,747,454 people are fully vaccinated.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on April 28, 2021, 12:08:06 AM
Pretty good numbers considering our 18+ pop is what, 255 million?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 28, 2021, 12:21:29 AM
The new census says 331m total, so -yeah- pretty good numbers. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 28, 2021, 02:59:04 PM
Shifting to kids.

Underlying conditions may be involved.

Boy, 10, dies of COVID after parents, both vaccinated, take him to Hawaii.
https://fox8.com/news/boy-dies-of-covid-after-parents-both-vaccinated-take-him-to-hawaii/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 28, 2021, 05:51:23 PM
<+>
COVID-19 alters human genes, explaining mystery behind coronavirus 'long haulers'

https://www.studyfinds.org/covid-alters-genes-long-haulers/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 28, 2021, 06:44:10 PM
Seven in 10 adults in England now have Covid-19 antibodies | Evening Standard
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-antibodies-seven-in-ten-england-ons-vaccine-pandemic-b932122.html

Six in 10 for Scots
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 29, 2021, 11:23:21 PM
COVID-19 Is Devastating India. Modi's Government Is Trying To Censor Social Media.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pranavdixit/covid-india-online-censorship
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 30, 2021, 12:46:00 PM
Apocalypse now.

India Covid deaths: Crematoriums overflow with victims, with pyres burning through the night

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/29/india/india-covid-deaths-crematoriums-intl-hnk-dst/index.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on April 30, 2021, 04:28:42 PM
100 million people fully inoculated against COVID in the U.S.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 03, 2021, 05:12:21 PM
FDA expected to authorize Pfizer vaccine for ages 12-15 this week

https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-india-coronavirus-charges/10572704/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 03, 2021, 06:51:20 PM
We may be closer to the Covid endgame than you think (US)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/america-s-covid-19-endgame-could-be-much-closer-than-you-think/ar-BB1gjHVc
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 08, 2021, 10:17:12 PM
A long read but worth it.
On why the WHO and the CDC made the wrong assumptions and were reluctant to change them.  Why Did It Take So Long to Accept the Facts About Covid? (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-airborne-transmission.html)
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 10, 2021, 05:00:44 PM
Th3core coulda told them this months ago.

CDC: Covid is airborne over six feet, safety tips for return to office
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/cdc-covid-is-airborne-over-six-feet-safety-tips-for-return-to-office.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 10, 2021, 06:51:24 PM
How the world missed more than half of all Covid-19 deaths
A new IHME analysis finds 6.9 million deaths worldwide, and suggests countries have been undercounting since the beginning of the pandemic.
https://www.vox.com/22422794/covid-19-death-numbers-total-us-vaccine-ihme

Quote
The United States alone is estimated to have had 905,000 Covid-19 fatalities, vastly more than the 579,000 deaths officially reported, and more than any other country. The calculation is based on modeling of excess mortality that has occurred during the pandemic.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 10, 2021, 08:23:57 PM
>countries have been undercounting

Populist leaders seem to be the larger culprit, but that might be skewed by the media. 

India's Modi is in the hot seat right now.  But, even if India did try for accurate numbers I doubt their 3rd-world sections can do it.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 11, 2021, 07:50:51 PM
More critiquing of the CDC guidelines, this time on outdoor transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-transmission-cdc-number.html


Quote
Erring on the side of protection — by exaggerating the risks of outdoor transmission — may seem to have few downsides. But it has contributed to widespread public confusion about what really matters. Some Americans are ignoring the C.D.C.’s elaborate guidelines and ditching their masks, even indoors, while others continue to harass people who walk around outdoors without a mask.

All the while, the scientific evidence points to a conclusion that is much simpler than the C.D.C.’s message: Masks make a huge difference indoors and rarely matter outdoors.

The health authorities in Britain, notably, seem to have figured this out. They have been more aggressive about restricting indoor behavior, locking down many businesses again late last year and requiring masks indoors even as most of the country is vaccinated. Outdoors, however, masks remain rare.

It certainly doesn’t seem to be causing problems. Since January, daily Covid deaths in Britain have declined more than 99 percent.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 12, 2021, 02:30:41 PM
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And World Peace, too.

Covid pandemic was preventable, says WHO-commissioned report | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/covid-pandemic-was-preventable-says-who-commissioned-report
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 12, 2021, 05:46:58 PM
We're deep into the twenty-first century and we have all this technology to assist us, yet I feel like we would have done a better job responding twenty or thirty years ago.  The rise of populist leadership around the world has made the wrapping paper more important than what's in the box.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 12, 2021, 10:40:50 PM
Alarming COVID-19 resurgence in world's most vaccinated nation leads to questions about Chinese vaccine | TheHill

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/553096-alarming-covid-19-resurgence-in-worlds-most
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Brad on May 13, 2021, 10:56:26 AM
We're deep into the twenty-first century and we have all this technology to assist us, yet I feel like we would have done a better job responding twenty or thirty years ago.  The rise of populist leadership around the world has made the wrapping paper more important than what's in the box.

We really need to rethink this global, just in time, supply chain. 
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 13, 2021, 06:01:24 PM
Would you agree that as a general rule, efficiency tracks with fragility? Not universally, but generally.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 13, 2021, 07:46:26 PM
Would you agree that as a general rule, efficiency tracks with fragility? Not universally, but generally.

Just thinking about it for a moment, efficiency would lead to elimination of redundancy and tapping into resources (supplies, labor, utilities) where they are most cost effective.  So, yes, generally efficiency tracks with fragility.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 14, 2021, 01:52:09 PM
"she is among millions of Indians who are on the right side of the country's digital divide - unlike hundreds of millions of others who don't have access to smartphones or the internet, currently the only route to a jab."

How India's vaccine drive went horribly wrong - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57007004
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 17, 2021, 01:30:11 PM
RED FLAG! *Something* is waaaay off.

So far, "breakthrough covid cases have been roughly 1/million.  For a baseball team to have 8 cases blows the stats through the roof.

Assuming they all got vaccinated as a group, perhaps they had a bad batch?  Or, is there a new variant at play here?


"Last week, the Yankees revealed that Torres tested positive for the coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated and previously having Covid-19. He is quarantining in Tampa, Florida.

In addition to Torres, the Yankees have three coaches and four traveling staffers that are breakthrough positives, meaning they tested positive despite being fully vaccinated."

Ninth person from Yankees tests positive for Covid
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/ninth-person-yankees-tests-positive-covid-n1267552
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Travoli on May 17, 2021, 02:07:58 PM
Bill Maher also vaccinated and tested positive, but he's asymptomatic.
Maybe certain tests pop positive on vaccinated subjects?
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 17, 2021, 03:55:05 PM
Bill Maher also vaccinated and tested positive, but he's asymptomatic.
Maybe certain tests pop positive on vaccinated subjects?

At least not in theory with the mRNA vaccines and a PCR test or an antigen test. Maybe with the J&J. The vaccine would make you test positive for an antibody test, but almost nobody is getting these

https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronavirusfrontlines/2021/02/26/could-vaccination-cause-me-to-test-positive-for-covid-19/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 17, 2021, 04:06:48 PM
Assuming they all got vaccinated as a group, perhaps they had a bad batch?  Or, is there a new variant at play here?

All vaccinated with J&J in two different states. Seven of the first eight presented without symptoms.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/eight-yankees-test-positive-covid-post-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-n1267332

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 19, 2021, 11:47:22 AM
"Nearly two-thirds of people tested in India have shown exposure to COVID-19"

"with hospitals and crematoria overflowing and the health system overwhelmed, it is widely accepted that the official figures grossly underestimate the real impact of the epidemic, with some experts saying infections and deaths could be five to 10 times higher."


Indian data suggests runaway COVID infections as deaths hit daily record | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-reports-267334-new-coronavirus-infections-2021-05-19/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 25, 2021, 08:13:26 PM
Half Of All U.S. Adults Are Now Fully Vaccinated Against COVID-19

<+>
U.S. intel report identified 3 Wuhan lab researchers who fell ill in November 2019
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/u-s-intel-report-identified-3-wuhan-lab-researchers-who-n1268327

Dr. Anthony Fauci says he's 'not convinced' Covid-19 developed naturally - CNN Video
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/05/24/fauci-not-convinced-covid-19-coronavirus-developed-naturally-sot-vpx-newday.cnn

White House officials say China hasn't been 'completely transparent' in Covid probe
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/25/us-officials-say-china-hasnt-been-completely-transparent-in-covid-probe.html

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 28, 2021, 03:03:31 PM
NC Reports Millionth COVID Case as Vaccine Demand Drops | North Carolina News

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2021-05-27/nc-reports-millionth-covid-case-as-vaccine-demand-drops

So these are officially recorded deaths which are significantly under-counted by a factor of 3 to 5 according to the CDC.  NC has a population of 10 million.  Do the math, it is pretty scary.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 28, 2021, 10:26:08 PM
>> factor of 3 to 5

Have you been following The Economist reporting on this? I've only looked at the headlines, but they are saying the worldwide total is about 10,000,000 deaths.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 30, 2021, 06:43:44 PM
Vietnam, Facing Covid Surge and New Variant, Tightens Restrictions - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/30/world/asia/vietnam-surge-variant.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: littleman on May 31, 2021, 02:34:23 AM
Covid case, death and hospitalization rates adjusted for unvaccinated people - Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/covid-rates-unvaccinated-people/)

Really telling article with state by state breakdown.  For the unvaccinated coronavirus infection rates are still very high.

Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 31, 2021, 03:20:47 PM
States ranked by percentage of population fully vaccinated: May 30

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on May 31, 2021, 04:30:39 PM
That's embarrassing. Whatever happens, we've brought it on ourselves.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on May 31, 2021, 04:50:25 PM
The Carolinas' motto: "At least we’re not Mississippi!"
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on May 31, 2021, 05:00:18 PM
It's interesting that the six New England states are all in the top 7. And it's utterly predictable that Vermont would be first and NH last in that cohort.

And Vermont is almost exactly double the rate of Mississippi. That is nuts. But, having grown up in New England, there is a still, I think, a hard-nosed practicality to New Englanders that despite all the immigration and emigration and cultural change, persists to some degree.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 03, 2021, 03:23:14 PM
70% of adults in 12 states have received at least 1 COVID vaccine dose: CDC

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/70percent-of-adults-in-12-states-have-received-at-least-1-covid-vaccine-dose-cdc/ar-AAKE0x2?li=BBnb7Kz
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 09, 2021, 02:32:48 PM
US COVID cases drop another 30% as Africa surge continues | CIDRAP
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/06/us-covid-cases-drop-another-30-africa-surge-continues
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 12, 2021, 01:32:26 AM
COVID vaccination rate by country: World map shows how your country is doing | Fortune

https://fortune.com/2021/06/09/covid-vaccine-rates-world-map-vaccination-by-country/
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 14, 2021, 07:27:34 PM
England Extends Covid Restrictions a Month - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/14/world/europe/england-covid-restrictions.html
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: ergophobe on June 16, 2021, 08:27:39 PM
Vitamin D may not actually protect against COVID-19
https://www.futurity.org/vitamin-d-covid-19-2578632/

On the other hand...

Face masks really work even with some leaks
https://www.futurity.org/masks-airborne-particles-2579502-2/

That said, that mask study, like so many, simply shows that masks reduce propagation of droplets, not that they reduce the propagation of disease.
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: rcjordan on June 17, 2021, 12:41:51 AM
Gotcha!

'If you can eat out, you can go to the office', says bank boss - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57487963
Title: Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
Post by: Drastic on June 18, 2021, 10:15:30 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/covid-cases-in-england-doubling-every-11-days-as-delta-takes-hold