Author Topic: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =  (Read 457 times)

rcjordan

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Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« on: May 04, 2021, 01:19:42 PM »
Pandemic accelerates use of robots instead of people - Los Angeles Times

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-05-04/covid-automation-robots-trends-effects-on-workers

ergophobe

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2021, 07:57:41 PM »
Quote
“When you’re 50 years old, to start something new is troublesome,” she said.

That's the sour spot. Old enough that it's hard to replace the job you've had. Too young to sprint to retirement.

But at some point, AI + offshoring is coming for "knowledge" workers too. If I were 17 looking for a long-term career, I would think in terms of hospitality, massage therapy, law enforcement, etc. "Messy" jobs where the human aspect is the important part and it is not location-independent.

Anything that relies on repetitive tasks (to wit, toll booth attendant) or pattern recognition (lots of jobs in finance, radiology) are trouble from AI.

Anything that is location-independent is fine if you are willing to live in any location (i.e. the cheap places on the globe, where your competition is).

Balaji has made it his next big project to bring the "dark talent" of the world into the light. He uses the phrase "dark talent" by analogy to "dark matter," and it refers to the vast, vast reservoirs of as yet unseeable talent that exist outside the rich world that could become programmers, graphic artists and so on with just a cell phone in some cases, slowly ratcheting up the value chain. His vision is also an alternative to the "step-function" model of university education.

Travoli

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2021, 09:04:46 PM »
>Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =

In popular NC beach towns, short-staffed restaurants are closing 2 days per week. They're already on Facebook begging customers for patience... during the first week of May.

ergophobe

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2021, 09:29:56 PM »
One thing I can never escape in these reports about shortage of restaurant workers is that

 - 7 of the 10 worst-paid jobs in America are restaurant jobs
 - restaurant work was one of the fastest-growing areas of the economy
 - Americans now spend more eating at restaurants than on groceries

To me all that adds up to a simple conclusion: there should be fewer restaurants with higher-paid staff and higher-priced meals and people should eat out less. When I was a kid, eating out was this rare treat that we did a few times a year. Now I know a lot of urban people who eat out or get takeout almost every day, commonly in excess of 10 meals per week.

rcjordan

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2021, 03:23:02 PM »
I had to take a 2-hour road trip yesterday through a rural area.  There are 'Help Wanted' placards stuck up along the highways and a couple of big billboards.  Most of them were for the construction trades but one billboard was for the Norfolk Naval Shipyard --a top regional, higher income employer.

Restaurants need workers, but not enough workers seem to need those jobs
https://www.wral.com/restaurants-need-workers-but-not-enough-workers-seem-to-need-those-jobs/19658023/

The crux of the matter is the pay rate, of course.  At -say- $100/hour- these employers would have a queue around the block.

ergophobe

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2021, 04:40:23 PM »
At -say- $100/hour- these employers would have a queue around the block.

This came up during one of the big snowstorms in Tahoe a couple years ago. Snow shovelers were demanding $100/hour and all the second homeowners from San Fran and Sacramento, most of whom make well north of $100/hr (they own million dollar second homes after all) were crying and weeping, saying it was extortionate.  There is something fundamental about the free market that they don't understand.

I am fully sympathetic with local construction contractors who say they can't find good workers. That's a legit problem. Wages here for those jobs are good, but the demand exceeds the local skilled population. Even $100/hour won't fix it overnight. You have to convince people to move here.

Brad

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2021, 09:52:41 AM »
Good carpenters are getting hard to find here.  The Boomers are all retiring and younger generations are smaller pools of workers.

rcjordan

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2021, 02:30:03 PM »
Montana plans to cancel unemployment benefits to address ‘severe workforce shortage’

https://money.yahoo.com/montana-plans-to-cancel-unemployment-benefits-161755830.html

Drastic

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rcjordan

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2021, 01:28:10 PM »
‘No one wants to work anymore’: the truth behind this unemployment benefits myth | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/07/truth-behind-unemployment-benefits-myth

rcjordan

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2021, 02:50:06 PM »
Jobs report April 2021: Hiring boom goes bust

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html

<+>
"Virus fears, childcare pressures, and unemployment benefits all likely drove the weak payrolls"

Why America's Economic Recovery Is Stumbling in April's Jobs Report

https://www.businessinsider.com/april-jobs-report-disappointment-us-economic-recovery-faltering-unemployment-crisis-2021-5

« Last Edit: May 07, 2021, 04:57:17 PM by rcjordan »

Drastic

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2021, 07:53:57 PM »
Great reads.

>"Virus fears, childcare pressures, and unemployment benefits all likely drove the weak payrolls"

Childcare keeping females home has more of impact that I thought. Half of kids are currently still doing some type of remote learning.

Brad

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2021, 10:39:41 AM »
The freeze on evictions from rental properties must have an effect.  If you remove the threat of losing the roof over one's head you remove a powerful motivation to go out and look for employment.

rcjordan

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2021, 05:13:07 PM »
>freeze on evictions

Oooh, good one.

-------------

There is also growing evidence — both anecdotal and in surveys — that a lot of people want to do something different with their lives than they did before the pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak has had a dramatic psychological effect on workers, and people are reassessing what they want to do and how they want to work, whether in an office, at home or some hybrid combination.

A Pew Research Center survey this year found that 66 percent of the unemployed had “seriously considered” changing their field of work, a far greater percentage than during the Great Recession. People who used to work in restaurants or travel are finding higher-paying jobs in warehouses or real estate, for example.

It’s not a ‘labor shortage.’ It’s a great reassessment of work in America.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/07/jobs-report-labor-shortage-analysis/

--------------------

>$100 / hr

U.S. labor shortage? Unlikely. Here’s why | Economic Policy Institute
https://www.epi.org/blog/u-s-labor-shortage-unlikely-heres-why/
« Last Edit: May 08, 2021, 05:23:13 PM by rcjordan »

ergophobe

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Re: Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2021, 08:07:20 PM »
Did you post that last article just to fuel my confirmation bias ;-)

To be honest, I'm always a bit wary of EPI articles for the simple reason that they seem to have the same biases as I do. So they always appear to me as oh so perceptive.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2021, 08:08:56 PM by ergophobe »