The Core
Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on May 04, 2021, 01:19:42 PM
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Pandemic accelerates use of robots instead of people - Los Angeles Times
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-05-04/covid-automation-robots-trends-effects-on-workers
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“When you’re 50 years old, to start something new is troublesome,” she said.
That's the sour spot. Old enough that it's hard to replace the job you've had. Too young to sprint to retirement.
But at some point, AI + offshoring is coming for "knowledge" workers too. If I were 17 looking for a long-term career, I would think in terms of hospitality, massage therapy, law enforcement, etc. "Messy" jobs where the human aspect is the important part and it is not location-independent.
Anything that relies on repetitive tasks (to wit, toll booth attendant) or pattern recognition (lots of jobs in finance, radiology) are trouble from AI.
Anything that is location-independent is fine if you are willing to live in any location (i.e. the cheap places on the globe, where your competition is).
Balaji (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balaji_Srinivasan) has made it his next big project (https://balajis.com/2021-and-1729/) to bring the "dark talent" of the world into the light. He uses the phrase "dark talent" by analogy to "dark matter," and it refers to the vast, vast reservoirs of as yet unseeable talent that exist outside the rich world that could become programmers, graphic artists and so on with just a cell phone in some cases, slowly ratcheting up the value chain. His vision is also an alternative to the "step-function" model of university education.
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>Hot economy + massive 'essential' labor shortage =
In popular NC beach towns, short-staffed restaurants are closing 2 days per week. They're already on Facebook begging customers for patience... during the first week of May.
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One thing I can never escape in these reports about shortage of restaurant workers is that
- 7 of the 10 worst-paid jobs in America are restaurant jobs
- restaurant work was one of the fastest-growing areas of the economy
- Americans now spend more eating at restaurants than on groceries
To me all that adds up to a simple conclusion: there should be fewer restaurants with higher-paid staff and higher-priced meals and people should eat out less. When I was a kid, eating out was this rare treat that we did a few times a year. Now I know a lot of urban people who eat out or get takeout almost every day, commonly in excess of 10 meals per week.
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I had to take a 2-hour road trip yesterday through a rural area. There are 'Help Wanted' placards stuck up along the highways and a couple of big billboards. Most of them were for the construction trades but one billboard was for the Norfolk Naval Shipyard --a top regional, higher income employer.
Restaurants need workers, but not enough workers seem to need those jobs
https://www.wral.com/restaurants-need-workers-but-not-enough-workers-seem-to-need-those-jobs/19658023/
The crux of the matter is the pay rate, of course. At -say- $100/hour- these employers would have a queue around the block.
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At -say- $100/hour- these employers would have a queue around the block.
This came up during one of the big snowstorms in Tahoe a couple years ago. Snow shovelers were demanding $100/hour and all the second homeowners from San Fran and Sacramento, most of whom make well north of $100/hr (they own million dollar second homes after all) were crying and weeping, saying it was extortionate. There is something fundamental about the free market that they don't understand.
I am fully sympathetic with local construction contractors who say they can't find good workers. That's a legit problem. Wages here for those jobs are good, but the demand exceeds the local skilled population. Even $100/hour won't fix it overnight. You have to convince people to move here.
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Good carpenters are getting hard to find here. The Boomers are all retiring and younger generations are smaller pools of workers.
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Montana plans to cancel unemployment benefits to address ‘severe workforce shortage’
https://money.yahoo.com/montana-plans-to-cancel-unemployment-benefits-161755830.html
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SC too:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/05/06/sc-end-federal-unemployment-assistance-june-30/4980265001/
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‘No one wants to work anymore’: the truth behind this unemployment benefits myth | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/07/truth-behind-unemployment-benefits-myth
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Jobs report April 2021: Hiring boom goes bust
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html
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"Virus fears, childcare pressures, and unemployment benefits all likely drove the weak payrolls"
Why America's Economic Recovery Is Stumbling in April's Jobs Report
https://www.businessinsider.com/april-jobs-report-disappointment-us-economic-recovery-faltering-unemployment-crisis-2021-5
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Great reads.
>"Virus fears, childcare pressures, and unemployment benefits all likely drove the weak payrolls"
Childcare keeping females home has more of impact that I thought. Half of kids are currently still doing some type of remote learning.
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The freeze on evictions from rental properties must have an effect. If you remove the threat of losing the roof over one's head you remove a powerful motivation to go out and look for employment.
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>freeze on evictions
Oooh, good one.
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There is also growing evidence — both anecdotal and in surveys — that a lot of people want to do something different with their lives than they did before the pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak has had a dramatic psychological effect on workers, and people are reassessing what they want to do and how they want to work, whether in an office, at home or some hybrid combination.
A Pew Research Center survey this year found that 66 percent of the unemployed had “seriously considered” changing their field of work, a far greater percentage than during the Great Recession. People who used to work in restaurants or travel are finding higher-paying jobs in warehouses or real estate, for example.
It’s not a ‘labor shortage.’ It’s a great reassessment of work in America.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/07/jobs-report-labor-shortage-analysis/
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>$100 / hr
U.S. labor shortage? Unlikely. Here’s why | Economic Policy Institute
https://www.epi.org/blog/u-s-labor-shortage-unlikely-heres-why/
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Did you post that last article just to fuel my confirmation bias ;-)
To be honest, I'm always a bit wary of EPI articles for the simple reason that they seem to have the same biases as I do. So they always appear to me as oh so perceptive.
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Chipotle Is Increasing Its Wages To Average $15 An Hour
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciakelso/2021/05/10/chipotle-is-increasing-its-wages-to-average-15-an-hour/
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Chipotle to Hike Wages, Debut Referral Bonuses in Attempt to Hire 20,000 Workers – NBC Connecticut
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/business/money-report/chipotle-to-hike-wages-debut-referral-bonuses-in-attempt-to-hire-20000-workers/2484235/
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Average. Starting wage is still $11, which is only $0.75 above California minimum wage. Is this the new "greenwashing?"
Chipotle already pays an average of $13 an hour and Hartung said it would take a 2% to 3% menu price increase to get to $15
That's interesting. So basically, for each dollar per hour, you increase prices 1%. Frankly, I don't think I would notice a 5% increase.
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>Referral Bonuses
There have been a number of local restaurants here that have been pushing $500 or even $1000 hiring bonuses usually paid out after 90 or 120 days of employment. And they are offering matching bonuses for whoever refers the new employees. And they are still having trouble getting people to work.
>I don't think I would notice a 5% increase
Definitely wouldn't notice that. If my $10 meal would now cost $10.50 I wouldn't bat an eyelash.
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>MT
>SC
Alabama to end $300 federal unemployment benefit boost
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/may/10/alabama-to-end-300-federal-unemployment-benefit-bo/
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Governor says Mississippi opting out of additional federal unemployment benefits
https://www.wapt.com/article/governor-says-mississippi-opting-out-of-additional-federal-unemployment-benefits/36387129
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= Jobless Recovery
"questioned whether workers have the necessary skills to fill the jobs available. Employers may have embraced new technologies such as AI, robotics, and automation faster than the labor market"
Top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns of a jobless recovery - and recommends investors ride the liquidity wave
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mohamed-el-erian-warns-jobless-recovery-investors-hold-stocks-liquidity-2021-5-1030413856
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FOX News, Utah: Executive Director for the Salt Lake Area Restaurant Association
"I just think some people have either moved on and there's just not enough people entering the industry as new"
"Remarkably, a lot of people think that it's the unemployment. I personally have not heard that being the case"
Utah restaurants can't find people to hire, and here's why
https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/utah-restaurants-cant-find-people-to-hire-and-heres-why
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>"I just think some people have either moved on and there's just not enough people entering the industry as new"
I was reading some interviews with local restaurant owners and most of them all hit on that. Many of their long time employees have moved on and others are hesitant to take jobs not knowing if the restaurant will have to cut capacity if there is a surge in COVID cases, if the restaurant will be around long term, etc.
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And everybody knows that working retail sucks.
And food service work is the lowest-of-the-low within retail.
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Another wrinkle.
- our county had a revenue collapse so offered an early retirement package to people. Lots took it. Public Works is now 17 positions short (this is a county of 18,000 so that's a lot).
- neighbor is a 68 yo waiter who had planned to retire at 70. When the restaurant reopened, he didn't want to go back and retired.
I'm sure there are a lot of people who fit that profile. They felt like they were *almost* ready to retire, but not quite. Then the decided that actually, they were ready.
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Lack of day care and/or in-person schooling for the kids is holding some back.
> profile
I think some people have had a chance to reevaluate their job position while laid off and have decided they don't like where they were at pre-covid and are looking at retraining, education or retirement as ergo points out.
> retail
A lot of the public are acting strange, rude, even violent. It's like the fear and isolation of the lockdown broke a lot of people that were borderline. I think some retail/food workers might be holding back until the crazies get filtered out.
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Mom & Pops gonna hurt.
Desperate for workers, US restaurants and stores raise pay | The Fresno Bee
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/article251394598.html#storylink=mainstage_card
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At least 19 Republican-led states are ending increased unemployment benefits as governors say businesses need workers - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unemployment-benefits-states-end-federal-aid/
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"Roughly 70% of the more than 4,000 respondents felt covid-19 would have a negative long-term impact on the industry, while 65% said they felt the industry failed to protect its employees as well as other sectors," according to FAU. "Respondents said employers were too quick to fire or furlough them and that employers cared more about stock value than the workers themselves," it added.
More than one-third said they planned to look for alternative jobs in other industries, while entry-level workers were especially disenchanted and looking to switch careers, the poll showed.
“The results of this poll clearly indicate that employees now are fed up and are looking at moving on to other industries. That’s a huge concern,”
Fed up and moving on, hospitality industry survey reveals ugly truth behind job numbers
https://www.univision.com/univision-news/money/fed-up-and-moving-on-hospitality-industry-survey-reveals-truth-behind-job-numbers
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One couple described working for one of the luxury brand hotels for 31 years, before being terminated on the same day, without warning, via an impersonal email.
Confirmed. My former employer essentially ghosted everyone, even upper management. Almost no communication and that very impersonal. A huge amount of employee loyalty evaporated over the course of Covid. My office mate and my boss both left hospitality entirely. The head of food and beverage moved to a small winery that opened a small restaurant. They all seem way happier. I don't think they could get any of those three back at any salary. Combined, they had roughly 65 years of experience in hospitality management.
That loss of experience really shows up when you have a crisis, but in general there will be a lot more rough edges in hospitality for years to come I think.
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Worker pay rises strongly as businesses fight to fill jobs | PBS NewsHour
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/worker-pay-rises-strongly-as-businesses-fight-to-fill-jobs
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Pretty interesting thread on reddit about some guys building a POS system using kisoks at drivethroughs. Looks to be an order taker eliminator.
https://www.reddit.com/r/smallbusiness/comments/oxawaf/we_recently_automated_our_drive_thru_with_outdoor/