Author Topic: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car  (Read 1941 times)

rcjordan

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Brad

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2021, 05:42:28 PM »
I like the dash.  The only thing is I do like having lots of cubby holes up front because you can't rely on the glove box anymore because the manuals on modern cars are as thick as Chilton's Manuals and take up all the space.

rcjordan

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2021, 06:02:00 PM »
Louise wants a Level 5 EV with 250 range.  I figure Tesla or -maybe- Kia will be there in 2 years.

ergophobe

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2021, 07:01:17 PM »
>>Level 5... in 2 years.

LOL... I think the earliest you will see a vehicle that is autonomous for highway driving (meaning you can read a book while it drives) will be 2025. Autonomous for select cities in its home range? Maybe 2030.

Austin Russell* says there is no timeline for true level 5. He does not think 2030 is realistic except for very limited applications (robotaxis on a set of known routes) and I think he's more trustworthy, less prone to hype, than... ahem... certain others in the industry.

The problem is that it is an asymptotic problem. The first 90% is the easy part. It's the last 1% that's hard and for true level 5, you need a system that is going to have a fatality every million miles or less.


*https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/12/03/meet-the-worlds-newest-and-youngest-self-made-billionaire-luminars-austin-russell/?sh=489017a7123b

rcjordan

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2021, 08:01:54 PM »
2023... 2025...  Picky, picky.

I think the rural and open-country highways & interstates will allow Level 5-ish travel fairly soon, 2025 at the outside.

ergophobe

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2021, 04:51:54 PM »
The thing is, it's like nuclear fusion. It's always five years away. I think the important detail is not that it is 2023 or 2025, it's that it is five years away, just like it was five years ago. That, I think, is a function of design cycles, not advances in self-driving capability. Meaning that the 2023 models are on the books already. Those designs, if not final, are far along. 2025 is in the concept stage and they are just sure they will have Level 5 by then.

It *may* be 2025. I'm not saying not. I'm just saying that we won't really know until a year or two before it happens.

grnidone

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2021, 10:39:54 PM »
>the manuals on modern cars are as thick as Chilton's Manuals and take up all the space.

Nope.  They don't give manuals anymore.  They tell you to go online.  It is maddeningly frustrating.

rcjordan

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2021, 11:00:32 PM »
I'm not happy about joining the all-seeing firmware & maintenance network that these EVs are going to bring with them.  I'll register it in my wife's name and let her deal with it, hhh.

Brad

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2021, 10:20:26 AM »
I'm going back and buying an extended maintenance protection on the Subaru luxury barge Ascent I bought last Fall.  I'm not worried about the mechanicals, it's the electronics 4-6 years from now.

rcjordan

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2021, 10:24:58 PM »
>it's the electronics 4-6 years from now

Good call. Debbie says that the running average for printed circuit board failure looks to be about 7 years.

Related:
Hang onto any analog appliances you might have and plan to use. They're in for the long haul **AND** usually easier to integrate with a smarthome system because they are dumb.

littleman

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2021, 12:56:03 AM »
> it's like nuclear fusion

I think that's an unfair comparison.  Self driving cars are an emerging technology, but all the components are there they and just need refinement.   Cold fusion is not even close.

ergophobe

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2021, 02:06:12 AM »
Not cold fusion. That's probably entirely bogus, though the debate has re-ignited. Agreed. That is nothing like Level 5 autonomous driving.

I'm talking about utility-scale hot fusion, which is seeing a renaissance, some significant advances and once again promises that we are less than 15 years from utility-scale implementation.

Setting aside bad analogies, you're right in the sense that I am applying linear (even worse asymptotic) thinking to an emerging tech that may eventually hit an exponential inflection point. If this is the year we hit an exponential inflection point, it will be the year I'm  completely blindsided.

Anyway, I'm basing my skepticism on things I hear from my nephew, who is steeped in Silicon Valley car culture and runs his hacked together assisted driving open source system, and on a recent Austin Russell interview. I found a transcript here:

https://www.theverge.com/22298001/luminar-austin-russel-ceo-interview-self-driving-cars

Quote
People try to say, ďOh yeah, weíll solve it. Itís easy. Weíll figure it out in 2022 or Ď23, whatever it is.Ē No, this stuff is really hard and no one has ever actually solved it at this point to date for the kind of application domain that youíre looking at.... It is improving, itís getting better, but the software is not going to be there for a while, for more of these urban environments and constraints, regardless of what anyone might say, if you want to try to have a car go from point A to point B in these environments. Itís going to take time even with our sensors, itís going to take a lot of time. But the point is how do you get this out there sooner than later? Thatís where youíll go for the more constrained environments.

But the thing is that it gets to a point of where you approach like 99 percent accuracy on it... But even if you get there, itís still not even remotely close to being good enough. You need like 10 nines worth of reliability in there. And it gets exponentially harder with each nine.

I would say, in theory you could probably buy a car without a steering wheel, thatíd take you from point A to point B in a more limited geographic capacity, by between 2025 and 2030. But the question is, would you really want that, would you buy a car that can only take you to certain limited destinations, and itís safe?

« Last Edit: March 19, 2021, 03:26:40 AM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2021, 02:23:24 AM »
>I think the rural and open-country highways & interstates will allow Level 5-ish travel fairly soon, 2025 at the outside.

>would you buy a car that can only take you to certain limited destinations

Yes.

ergophobe

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2021, 03:38:03 AM »
Ha ha! Yeah, I'm not a fan of driving either. I truly hope you guys are right and my pessimism is unwarranted. I so want to let my robot drive me around.

rcjordan

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Re: Kia's sleek new EV6 electric car
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2021, 04:11:33 AM »
>I'm not a fan of driving either.

To clarify, that 'Yes' was the wife's. I'm a masochistic, long-distance driver since forever... the right stuff of many family-travel horror stories.  That said, I have some stretches of highway that I am so bored of driving that I would gladly hand the robot the wheel (if there is a wheel).

Me, though? I'll likely be driving a 'smoker' forever. hattip Waterworld --1995