The Core
Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on March 15, 2021, 05:00:52 PM
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https://www.businessinsider.com/kia-ev6-electric-car-pictures-design-interior-photos-2021-3
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I like the dash. The only thing is I do like having lots of cubby holes up front because you can't rely on the glove box anymore because the manuals on modern cars are as thick as Chilton's Manuals and take up all the space.
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Louise wants a Level 5 EV with 250 range. I figure Tesla or -maybe- Kia will be there in 2 years.
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>>Level 5... in 2 years.
LOL... I think the earliest you will see a vehicle that is autonomous for highway driving (meaning you can read a book while it drives) will be 2025. Autonomous for select cities in its home range? Maybe 2030.
Austin Russell* says there is no timeline for true level 5. He does not think 2030 is realistic except for very limited applications (robotaxis on a set of known routes) and I think he's more trustworthy, less prone to hype, than... ahem... certain others in the industry.
The problem is that it is an asymptotic problem. The first 90% is the easy part. It's the last 1% that's hard and for true level 5, you need a system that is going to have a fatality every million miles or less.
*https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/12/03/meet-the-worlds-newest-and-youngest-self-made-billionaire-luminars-austin-russell/?sh=489017a7123b
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2023... 2025... Picky, picky.
I think the rural and open-country highways & interstates will allow Level 5-ish travel fairly soon, 2025 at the outside.
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The thing is, it's like nuclear fusion. It's always five years away. I think the important detail is not that it is 2023 or 2025, it's that it is five years away, just like it was five years ago. That, I think, is a function of design cycles, not advances in self-driving capability. Meaning that the 2023 models are on the books already. Those designs, if not final, are far along. 2025 is in the concept stage and they are just sure they will have Level 5 by then.
It *may* be 2025. I'm not saying not. I'm just saying that we won't really know until a year or two before it happens.
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>the manuals on modern cars are as thick as Chilton's Manuals and take up all the space.
Nope. They don't give manuals anymore. They tell you to go online. It is maddeningly frustrating.
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I'm not happy about joining the all-seeing firmware & maintenance network that these EVs are going to bring with them. I'll register it in my wife's name and let her deal with it, hhh.
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I'm going back and buying an extended maintenance protection on the Subaru
luxury barge Ascent I bought last Fall. I'm not worried about the mechanicals, it's the electronics 4-6 years from now.
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> it's like nuclear fusion
I think that's an unfair comparison. Self driving cars are an emerging technology, but all the components are there they and just need refinement. Cold fusion is not even close.
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Not cold fusion. That's probably entirely bogus, though the debate has re-ignited. Agreed. That is nothing like Level 5 autonomous driving.
I'm talking about utility-scale hot fusion, which is seeing a renaissance, some significant advances and once again promises that we are less than 15 years from utility-scale implementation.
Setting aside bad analogies, you're right in the sense that I am applying linear (even worse asymptotic) thinking to an emerging tech that may eventually hit an exponential inflection point. If this is the year we hit an exponential inflection point, it will be the year I'm completely blindsided.
Anyway, I'm basing my skepticism on things I hear from my nephew, who is steeped in Silicon Valley car culture and runs his hacked together assisted driving open source system, and on a recent Austin Russell interview. I found a transcript here:
https://www.theverge.com/22298001/luminar-austin-russel-ceo-interview-self-driving-cars
People try to say, “Oh yeah, we’ll solve it. It’s easy. We’ll figure it out in 2022 or ‘23, whatever it is.” No, this stuff is really hard and no one has ever actually solved it at this point to date for the kind of application domain that you’re looking at.... It is improving, it’s getting better, but the software is not going to be there for a while, for more of these urban environments and constraints, regardless of what anyone might say, if you want to try to have a car go from point A to point B in these environments. It’s going to take time even with our sensors, it’s going to take a lot of time. But the point is how do you get this out there sooner than later? That’s where you’ll go for the more constrained environments.
But the thing is that it gets to a point of where you approach like 99 percent accuracy on it... But even if you get there, it’s still not even remotely close to being good enough. You need like 10 nines worth of reliability in there. And it gets exponentially harder with each nine.
I would say, in theory you could probably buy a car without a steering wheel, that’d take you from point A to point B in a more limited geographic capacity, by between 2025 and 2030. But the question is, would you really want that, would you buy a car that can only take you to certain limited destinations, and it’s safe?
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>I think the rural and open-country highways & interstates will allow Level 5-ish travel fairly soon, 2025 at the outside.
>would you buy a car that can only take you to certain limited destinations
Yes.
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Ha ha! Yeah, I'm not a fan of driving either. I truly hope you guys are right and my pessimism is unwarranted. I so want to let my robot drive me around.
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>I'm not a fan of driving either.
To clarify, that 'Yes' was the wife's. I'm a masochistic, long-distance driver since forever... the right stuff of many family-travel horror stories. That said, I have some stretches of highway that I am so bored of driving that I would gladly hand the robot the wheel (if there is a wheel).
Me, though? I'll likely be driving a 'smoker' forever. hattip Waterworld --1995
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I used to be fine with tons of driving and I've had several driving jobs (I guess technically, I still do when I drive the little snowplow for the county). But after a massive amount of driving in 2003, my legs just hurt and after 4 hours in car.
The day Starfleet announces the home version of the transporter is the last time I will ever get in a car.
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About that VW bus that is in some thread I can't find
https://www.engadget.com/vw-electric-microbus-release-date-us-europe-id-buzz-173557828.html
It looks like it will arrive in Europe on time as promised in 2017, though it will be a year late in the US (2023) and the fully autonomous version is only scheduled to be released "eventually"
If a microbus feels too hippy or too suburban parent for you, you could indulge in an electric midlife crisis fantasy and get a Jeep Magneto (electric Wrangler)
https://www.engadget.com/jeeps-all-electric-wrangler-concept-has-a-six-speed-manual-transmission-122031458.html
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That VW bus will sell at least in the Eastern US where distances are shorter. It's the first EV that looks like it has some headroom plus room for stuff. The retro crowd will like it and those considering an EV for the first time will be reassured by the VW dealer/service network.
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Get it to open road L5 and 300 mi range and we're in!!
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Get it to open road L5 and 300 mi range and we're in!!
Despite my "true L5" pessimism, I think "open road L5" and longer ranges are coming fairly soon. One thing about some of the ideas for increasing energy density in batteries is that it's a double win. If you double density and cut the battery size by 40% (so 60% of the original), that's 20% more capacity, but it should increase the range by more than 20% because of the weight savings, right?
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>right?
Sounds right to me.
To my shock, Louise wasn't agog at this VW EV bus. She apparently want something as big as a Sprinter with the above specs. I'll buy the VW anyway.
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This could be a winner. AWD is key. 270 mile range is a bit of a bummer though
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AS flat as Kansas here. AWD isn't necessary or worth the money.
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specs look decent. no pricing.
Kia officially debuts its EV6 AWD electric crossover | Engadget
https://www.engadget.com/kia-officially-debuts-the-ev-6-awd-electric-crossover-080006032.html
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"the EV6's 800 volt system keeps things moving. It takes only 18 minutes to go from 10 percent to 80 percent battery. And the charging system doesn't just charge the car. It can be plugged into another EV or into a generator. It can provide up to 3.6 kilowatts"
Kia reveals new details for its EV6 electric car with 315-mile range — except for the price
https://mashable.com/article/kia-ev6-gt-line-electric-car/
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>>no pricing
Well, now, that's one of the things about the AWD EVs. If I look at my options, let's say I have two criteria only
- has to be AWD or 4WD**
- want to lower my carbon footprint, which an EV should do in CA given the mix of electricity sources in the grid and how that will evolve over the life of the car. Different calculation in Indiana or, even worse, Poland.
The lowest-end AWD EVs are about $45K, plus I need to put in a charging station at my house, which the neighbor says cost her $5K = $50K
So option 1 is I get a car that
- uses a mix of fossil and renewable fuels, a mix which will bias more and more toward renewables, but not reach 100% over the life of the car.
- With no commute, I don't drive that much anymore, so we're looking at putting maybe 8,000 leisure miles on it (which seems high, but it's a gorgeous new EV so driving is more fun so I do more).
- when it sits there, all that massive carbon footprint of building that car is going to waste 90% of the time.
- I'm out $50,000
Option 2.
- Assuming that I am allergic to buying a used car (not true, but for the sake of argument), I spend $20,000 on a Subaru Impreza (actually, starting price is under $20K, no hidden BS like Tesla hiding the real price and subtracting $7000 based on supposed TCO over the life of the car).
- I spend $25,000 on a solar array for the house and a battery sufficient to keep me running for 24 hours. The carbon footprint on this kit is paying off any time the sun is up or the batteries are charged. If I don't want to "drive" the array because the batteries are full and it's producing more than I'm using, then I get to give/sell those electrons to someone else, the societal benefit of the system is maximized, as if my car was on the road whenever the sun's out whether I'm driving it or someone decides to borrow it. The batteries also let me avoid drawing on the grid at night when the grid is NOT clean and in the summer when all the dirty sources are brought online to keep up with A/C load. It also lets me draw on the battery during peak times when power costs more (PG&E is shifting to Time of Use rates with winter off-peak being as low as $0.20/kwh and summer peak being $0.42/kwh). So in return for the also large embodied energy in this system, I am making a big difference in my carbon footprint and potentially saving money.
- I'm out $45,000, and have a gross savings of $5K in upfront cost, but I also have a system that knocks $1500/year off my electric cost, so over time it nets out to a much bigger fuel savings than Tesla claims I get from an EV vs and ICE.
My sense is that Option 2 is results in a car with more range, a much bigger impact on my carbon footprint, a reduction in up-front cost, a larger reduction in long-term cost, and a solid backup system during our ever-increasing rolling power outages during fire season.
The more I think about it, the more I see one last ICE car in my future and solar panels and battery. And then, some years from now when I don't have any low-hanging fruit like the solar panel option, an EV makes sense.
Now, I know that an Impreza, powertrain aside, is not the joy to drive that a Tesla might be, but as mentioned earlier, I do not get much joy from driving and mostly just want to spend less time in cars when possible.
**AWD is a non-negotiable not because it's flat or hilly, but because we don't use salt on the roads and whenever there is any layer of snow, NPS has chain controls in place. So when Theresa was commuting up 1700 feet in altitude, she was taking chains on and off 1-2 times per day and we were going through four sets of chains in a year at $100 a pop. And on very many modern cars, applying chains voids the warranty and there are substantial fines for not having them, independent of whether you feel the conditions merit it or not.
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Option 2 would be the way to go if I lived in the CA semi-wilderness. IMO, you can't beat Subaru for a solid ride. (No dealers around here, though.) And, yeah, AWD too.
Since we're in our 70s, I'm not making the L5 EV jump with many financial considerations in mind. Mostly, I'm just trying to fill a bucket list while trying to avoid a disastrous purchase. I also have deep concerns that an EV could be a PITA to own.
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>"AS flat as Kansas here"
*whispers* Kansas isn't flat.
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Ok, flatter than Kansas. Billiard table flat.
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> price
> $45K
I'm waiting for the VCR effect to kick in on EV's. The first VCR machines were well over $2000 (in late 1970's dollars) but the price kept dropping every year until they got affordable.
Also: we need to standardize the high voltage charging systems.
Also, also: EV dealers need to make the installation of the charging station in your home a turn-key option.
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>VCR
Right. *AND* you never want to buy the first year of a model's rollout anyway. It takes 2 years of production to iron out the glitches ---and I expect tech glitches to be a big problem with early EVs. I told Louise that this one might be a serious contender in 2023 model year.
>$45k
It is going to be hard to get the manufacturers to give up ground on the pricing now that they have the dumbasses trained to buy a damn pickup truck or jeep for $87k.
>we need to standardize the high voltage charging systems.
Debbie says Tesla may have already won that battle. I'm seeing a few installations of their charging stations pop up in high-traffic places. The latest one was in a Sheetz gas/convenience store.
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> glitches
I hadn't thought of that. Good call. You have both software plus electronics and either one or both could end up being a nightmare. The first two years of every new version of Windows was a Bill Gates betafest until they finally got most of the bugs out.
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>> glitches
Yeah, on the firmware side I'd say Tesla has the advantage. That said, battery tech is advancing at a rapid pace and it is still a moving target. I think it will be very easy to get a certified lemon that would indeed be a nightmare. The problem will likely be worse for one-off, wannabe EVs that seem to be coming out of the woodwork lately.
>model year
Teslas have been called out over several models for having poor-fitting doors, cabin noise, etc. Musk readily admits that scaling up production has put many of the "finish quality" issues behind where they should be for an upscale vehicle.
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meanwhile at the top dog...
Tesla's quarterly deliveries smash previous record, beat estimates | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries-idUSKBN2BP0WD
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>Despite my "true L5" pessimism, I think "open road L5" and longer ranges are coming fairly soon.
“I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk talks Level 5 Full Autonomy for 2021
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-autonomy-2021/