Author Topic: Computer models failing to accurately predict path of flames  (Read 1709 times)

rcjordan

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Mackin USA

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Re: Computer models failing to accurately predict path of flames
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2015, 04:20:59 PM »
"others suggest modeling methods haven't kept up to speed with technology."

That's in California and that means a LARGE LAW SUIT
Mr. Mackin

rcjordan

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Re: Computer models failing to accurately predict path of flames
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2015, 04:29:45 PM »
This is no job for a few desktops daisy-chained together. I believe NOAA is currently using 4 supercomputers and/or software models to predict hurricanes.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-noaa-supercomputers-20150109-story.html

And this is at a much higher environmental macro level than local fires, which would have to have much more granular info about topography, winds, humidity, ground cover, etc.  Still, the vast improvement in hurricane predicting capabilities even in the last 10 years indicates that something similar might eventually be done for wildfires.

ergophobe

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Re: Computer models failing to accurately predict path of flames
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2015, 05:14:30 PM »
Honestly, this is a minor problem.

The bigger problem is people like many of my neighbors who live in La La Land with dense stands of pine and fir surrounding their houses and touching it on three sides. I don't know if they think their house is okay, don't care, don't think at all, or think firefighters are going to somehow heroically save them despite their complete firetrap.

Some evidence suggests the latter - one second-home neighbor asked a resident to put out buckets of flame retardant on his driveway so firefighters could apply it. Which is completely retarded. His house cannot be defended, but he somehow thinks it can. A local logger offered to drop a couple of DEAD trees on his land for free as a public service and the guy screamed at him and told him to get out of his face.

You can change the computers all you want, but the key to fixing the fire "problem" in CA is to change people.

- we need more people to clear around their homes
- we need to have a lot MORE fire in California to achieve long-term safety. Historical averages were 4,000,000 acres per year and we typically let less than 1,000,000 acres burn each year. That's not sustainable, plus we have a massive backlog due to a century of fire suppression.