The Core

>Ghost Kitchens

I had seen a few articles about ghost kitchens even before COVID. Makes total sense. Why pay for all the overhead of a dining room, large menu, diverse options, etc. when you can just get a small kitchen and crank out a handful of dishes and do them reasonably well? They can also focus on food that travels well and has little degradation if delivery takes 15-20 minutes. They can also make sure things make sense economically and focus on higher margin foods when the delivery services take their 20-30%

There have been a number of restaurants around here that have done some pretty amazing pivots as well. One used to do kind of upscale burgers and modern takes on classic dishes. Over the last couple weeks they have shifted to making burritos you can just grab and go. They only need a 6-10 ingredients on hand and one or two people can crank them out at a good pace. There are a lot of restaurants here that do a lot of whining and complaining but the ones who have been able to adapt, change their menus, swallow their pride a bit and focus on what kind of food needs to be cooked vs. what they want to cook, etc. seem to be doing reasonably well.

I see a little more fishing & boating, but not more hunting. Though I have heard a few shotguns in the surrounding fields and shores this year, it is infrequent.  A decade ago, I'd hear an opening salvo every Saturday morning, for sure.   And I don't see dog boxes in pickup trucks much.  They used to be in every third one.

So, Debbie says that while rural areas surrounding large urban areas are probably seeing an uptick in hunters & fishermen, they are doing so because the cityfolk are using it for an escape.

I don't think all this outdoorsy-ness is going to stick. Maybe some, but not much.  Right now, it is just something to do.  Once the bars and restaurants open up, they'll drop the guns & rods.

>>I don't think all this outdoorsy-ness is going to stick.

That is my fervent hope ;-) The hunting thing doesn't affect me much, but other things do. It's a scramble to buy backcountry gear. I just build a website for a gear shop and he said his number one challenge this year is keeping stuff in stock. He told me that if needed new ski boots this year, I should purchase by Nov 15, because after that selection would start to get limited.

Meanwhile, in the park, wilderness permits were hard to come by all summer. Places I once thought of as obscure were hitting quota.

But I am banking on the idea that once people get comfortable riding lifts with strangers again, most people won't want to hump uphill. Once hotels and campgrounds with bathrooms are back to full capacity, most people will find that packing out their used toilet paper doesn't appeal to them that much.

I'm not entirely sure, though. For the last several years, backcountry skiing/boarding is the only sector that has been growing and it has been growing fast. And backpacking was already enjoying a bit of a resurgence after a vogue in the 1970s that bottomed out in the 1990s or so.

> Trail hiking. 

Yeah I can see this being big.  There are so many good hiking trails around and now new hikers have gotten a taste of them.

> bird watching

I'm surprised at how many bird watchers there are.  This niche is popular and growing.

Camping may see a resurgence especially if covid lingers.

I think cycling is going to grow both for recreation and commuting.  Cities are adding bike lanes like crazy and we've been building long distance, paved bike trails for the last 20 years, little sections at a time, and these are now coming together to actually go somewhere.  Bike shops and Walmart could not keep bikes in stock last summer.  This sport might have legs to expand.

>One of the Pandemic’s Big Winners: Hunting
>License sales, in long decline, jumped this year as newcomers ventured into the wild.

Ironically, bird-watching is the scourge of wildlife conservation because it is soooooo cheap.  Bird-watchers use resources but have no licenses or significant ways for conservationists to monetize them.  Back when I was going to state and regional tourism conferences, one of the top state Wildlife honchos told me "Bird-watchers don't pay for s@&$!!"

So, back on topic, given the coming economy I'm expecting cheap-o bird-watching to stick around.

> business real estate

There is a lot of discussion going on about this in urban planning circles.  Many seem to think that a lot of the unused urban high rise office space will get converted to living space.  People starting to have kids may want to move to the suburbs but many singles and childless couples still want the urban living experience.

Taco Bell to open first digital-only U.S. location in Times Square

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/taco-bell-to-open-first-digital-only-us-location-in-times-square.html

^{Not sure if this will last, but for now...}

>restaurants, pubs, kitchens


UK Survey shows public more aware of food safety since pandemic began | Food Safety News
https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/04/survey-shows-public-more-aware-of-food-safety-since-pandemic-began/