But haven't we been hearing about the idea that electric cars will take over for years now? 10 years ago I remember some blogger was 'guaranteeing' that the majority of cars on the road in 2016 would be electric
I remember buying a car in 2004 when gas prices in our area tipped over $5/gal and SUV sales were crashing and it seemed like all the incentives were lining up for serious innovation.
I told simplytheresa "This could be the last internal combustion engine car we buy." Until lately, I've been feeling we're barely closer than we were in 2004 and for the reasons Brad mentioned, in a snowy, rural area like ours, we still feel far away from electric. Of course, climate change seems to be fixing the snow problem.
The one thing about all of these predictions like the one you mention, is they are almost all farcical. The median age of a car on the road in the US today is over 11 years and that number is generally rising. This means that if we quit producing ICE cars right now, 10 years from now the majority of cars on the road would still be ICE cars unless there was a strong incentive to trade in. If the cost savings were there, that incentive might exist, but it would still take time.
If someone tells me that 10 years from now, the majority of cars sold will be electric, I would say "could be so." If someone tells me that 10 years from now the majority of the cars on the road will be electric or self-driving, I know they're full of sh##.